Around the Nation board

[usee]

...Which I believe speaks to Frank's point on Eastern depth.  Del Valley, which is arguably almost as strong as undefeated #1 Southern Region Wesley, can't run the table in its own conference and loses to the #5 seed team...which has a winning record in a deep MAC.

I agree with this and I think the same argument could be said for the CCIW which is my point (the East is not unique). Wheaton beats #4,5,6 in their own conference, each by 7 pts or less (6 of 8 CCIW teams are 6-4 or better) and loses only to possible #1 seed NCC. The CCIW is also a very deep conference (#8, #6, and #5, #1 all have wins over playoff teams already). Some years a CCIW team can overcome and win the conference, sometimes they can't. It's not very often an undefeated CCIW team is in the playoffs (2x in the last 10 years)

We don't need to assess if the North is stronger than the East (or visa versa) to assess if they face the same difficulties and obstacles in reaching the field of 32, competing with the juggernauts and improving as a program. Frank thinks the East has unique challenges and I disagree.

[martin]

Time to play what, if anything, did Pat get wrong.  Entries due before 3pm EST.

The D3FB cohort pick Pool C as follows:
1. Wheaton
2. Hampden Sydney
3. Rowan
4. ONU
5. Bethel
6. Wabash
Missing the cut:
7. Montclair State
8. Coe
9. Wabash

Pool B
1. Wesley
2. SUNY Maritime
3. Salisbury
Missing the cut:
4. Chicago

I think Wabash has been so inconsistent all year that thrashing of DePauw in a rivalry game may not be enough to get them in.  I think Montclair will make it 3 from the NJAC.  If Wabash does get in, it may be at the expense of Bethel.

Also, I am hoping he is wrong on Chicago but do not think so.  I did post some reasons why the committe should pick Chicago over Salisbury.

[sflzman]

HOW DO YOU GIVE DEFENDING NATIONAL CHAMPS, #1 IN THE POLL, 10-0, A 2 SEED?

[martin]

HOW DO YOU GIVE DEFENDING NATIONAL CHAMPS, #1 IN THE POLL, 10-0, A 2 SEED?

The two facts you state are completely irrelevant to the selection and seeding process.  And what difference does it make?  UWW amd MTU can only meet in the final.

[labart96]

HOW DO YOU GIVE DEFENDING NATIONAL CHAMPS, #1 IN THE POLL, 10-0, A 2 SEED?

The two facts you state are completely irrelevant to the selection and seeding process.  And what difference does it make?  UWW amd MTU can only meet in the final.

We asked this question and several others to Dr. Solomen in our interview today that will appear on ITH around 8 PM ET.  Tune into www.inthehuddLLe.com if you want to hear the perspective of the Chair of the Committee that made that pick.

[Wydown Blvd.]

Didnt know where else to put this (washn't sure if d3ftball had the undefeated/winless board like bball). Maranatha Baptist Bible College got a solid shoutout in the Pat Forde's blog (The Dash) from ESPN, under the sub-heading "Five Happier Storylines":

Maranatha Baptist Bible College (19). Here's one you have to love, forwarded by senior quarterback Mark Green, who has missed the entire season with a torn ACL. The Division III school in Wisconsin had the nation's longest NCAA losing streak at 33 games until Saturday, when the Crusaders won for the first time since 2007, beating Rockford College (Ill.) 14-6. Leading 7-0 in the fourth quarter, Maranatha intercepted four Rockford passes in the red zone, returning one 90 yards for the clinching score. The postgame field storming was wholly appropriate. Congrats to the Crusaders, only four of whom had experienced the thrill of college victory before Saturday.

[thewaterboy]

HOW DO YOU GIVE DEFENDING NATIONAL CHAMPS, #1 IN THE POLL, 10-0, A 2 SEED?

Exactly what martin said. Completely irrelevant. Besides seeding doesnt matter unless you win. Theres no excuse for any team that says their play was effected by seeding. Its a result of how well you play. If you lose on the road. Your fault. You lose at home. Your fault cause you couldnt defend your house. Mount and Whitewater have to go on the road? Suck it up. Thats how it is this year. Too bad. Teams want a better seed, the only way to proved you deserved better or deserved what you got is to win. Plain and simple. Good luck to all 32 teams in the postseason.

[K-Mack]

I'll explain in ATN.

Although I have stopped posting or reading new posts -- I'd never get anything done otherwise -- we worked through the issues pretty well on Sunday and Monday. A lot of people raised good points I hadn't thought of or considered, and I took note of those.

I realize not everyone agrees with me, but I think I've managed to summarize it in the most understandable way possible -- and hopefully I can make it concise too -- so that we can all understand what's what.

The thing not to lose sight of -- considering folks try put perhaps can't determine who's as good as who on paper, no matter the criteria or metrics -- THAT'S WHAT THE PLAYOFF GAMES ARE FOR!

Sometimes midweek, we start easing our way toward anticipating the actual games. I'll try not to rehash too much, yet there has to be the actual final definitive word for the history bo -- uh, web archives.

[K-Mack]

You think it pays to be awesome one defense? One of these kids ... is doing his own thing, one of these kids...

1   Cortland St.   10   10   6   0   0   0   4   0   78    7.80   9   1   0
2   Mount Union   10   11   10   0   0   0   1   0   79   7.90   10   0   0
3   North Central (IL)   10   10   7   0   0   0   5   1   84   8.40   10   0   0
4   Wis.-Whitewater   10   12   12   0   0   0   1   0   87   8.70   10   0   0
5   Montclair St.   10   13   6   1   0   0   3   1   97   9.70   9   1   0
6   Trine   10   14   11   0   0   0   4   0   107   10.70   10   0   0
7   Thomas More   10   15   10   0   0   0   2   1   108   10.80   10   0   0
8   Bethel (MN)   10   15   10   0   0   0   3   0   109   10.90   9   1   0
9   Salve Regina   10   14   11   0   0   0   5   0   110   11.00   6   4   0
9   St. Thomas (MN)   10   14   11   0   0   0   5   0   110   11.00   10   0   0
11   Wartburg   10   15   12   0   0   0   4   0   114   11.40   10   0   0
12   Wittenberg   10   16   15   0   0   0   2   0   117   11.70   10   0   0
13   Wesley   9   14   11   1   0   0   3   0   106   11.78   9   0   0
14   Delaware Valley   10   15   9   2   0   0   5   0   118   11.80   8   2   0
14   Franklin   10   13   12   0   0   0   8   2   118   11.80   9   1   0
16   Ohio Northern

So that's 15 playoff teams and Salve, run by the guy who coached Hopkins into holding Hampden-Sydney to 7 and Wesley 12 in last year's playoffs.

I think we know where our next budding coaching star lies.

[K-Mack]

I'll explain in ATN.

Although I have stopped posting or reading new posts -- I'd never get anything done otherwise -- we worked through the issues pretty well on Sunday and Monday. A lot of people raised good points I hadn't thought of or considered, and I took note of those.

I realize not everyone agrees with me, but I think I've managed to summarize it in the most understandable way possible -- and hopefully I can make it concise too -- so that we can all understand what's what.

As promised.

Perhaps not concise. But understandable! And with bracket reactions & picks!

http://www.d3football.com/columns/around-the-nation/2010/surprises-disappointments-predictions

[Ralph Turner]

Great ATN.

I would like to crunch the OWP/OOWP numbers by "size of conference".

WIAC and ASC teams have trouble filling all non-conference games with eligible D-III opponents.

I think that explains the low OWP numbers for UMHB and UWW, and works to the disadvantage of the WIAC, ASC, SCIAC and NWC.  The left coast conferences are basically on their own as well.  Redlands did not pick up too much "OWP/OOWP-diversity" when it played ETBU.

[usee]

Keith,

I understand your logic on the SOS from ATN (great article btw). you are saying that teams should be incetnted to schedule the UWW's and tougher opponents based on this years committee picks. HOw then would you explain Wheaton and NCC? They have 2 of the stronger SOS's out there but played the likes of Olivet, Cornell, Albion, UWEC and Platteville. Not great competition.

I argue it was a bit of collusion by the CCIW coaches. The whole conference scheduled "weak" and thus went 22-2 in OOC play.  That means 6 of 8 schools were 6-4 or better overall and artificially inflated the SOS of the whole league (7 of 8 are in the top 16 of SOS). Are you really going to tell me UWW and Mt Union played easier schedules than NCC and Wheaton?

[Mr. Ypsi]

Keith,

I understand your logic on the SOS from ATN (great article btw). you are saying that teams should be incetnted to schedule the UWW's and tougher opponents based on this years committee picks. HOw then would you explain Wheaton and NCC? They have 2 of the stronger SOS's out there but played the likes of Olivet, Cornell, Albion, UWEC and Platteville. Not great competition.

I argue it was a bit of collusion by the CCIW coaches. The whole conference scheduled "weak" and thus went 22-2 in OOC play.  That means 6 of 8 schools were 6-4 or better overall and artificially inflated the SOS of the whole league (7 of 8 are in the top 16 of SOS). Are you really going to tell me UWW and Mt Union played easier schedules than NCC and Wheaton?

Collusion seems a rather harsh term.

After NCC got burned last year for playing ONU (in a year when winning % seemed to trump everything, and SoS was meaningless), they understandably pulled back, and now SoS seems to trump everything (except, perhaps, winning %, since still no 2-loss teams regardless of SoS).  Could the selection committee perhaps come up with some consistency?  Coaches (ADs?) have no clue how to schedule in case they are on the bubble.  IF they would select a 2-loss (high SoS) team over a 1-loss (low SoS) team, perhaps we would get some strong non-con games.

[K-Mack]

Funny you guys should mention. I edited this out because I thought it was a little bit of a tangent

DELETE THIS PART?
Last season, Ohio Northern opened up with a win against North Central, lost to 8-2 Otterbein and 10-0 Mount Union, finished 8-2 and was left out of the playoffs. North Central, which had beaten the Polar Bears in the 2008 opener, also finished 8-2 and did not get a Pool C bid. Six of the seven one-loss teams went into the field first.

For both North Central and ONU, there was little incentive for playing that game. Though the Cardinals played Cornell, Olivet and UW-Eau Claire this season and oddly ended up with a No. 1 seed, teams can now schedule the way ONU and North Central did knowing that there's a reward for picking up a win over a team likely to be regionally ranked and likely to boost your strength of schedule figure.
DELETE THIS PART?

[K-Mack]

Here's the thing ... SoS or no, it's still a chance to beat an RRO.

Mr Ypsi makes a good point.

And in the case of, say, Wittenberg, they know there's a better bounce from playing ONU than Olivet, in both OWP and likely in OOWP (OAC).

It's definitely odd that North Central scheduled abnormally weak but the CCIW had the super-high W-L. But that W-L wasn't from playing power schools necessarily. From ATN's ranking the conferences:

4. COLLEGE CONFERENCE OF ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN (CCIW)
Kickoff '10 ranking: 6th
Non-conference record: 22-2
Verdict: Six of the conference's eight teams are 3-0 right now, and the other two are 2-1, with CCIW play set to begin Saturday. The 22 victories have come against teams from eight conferences, including an 8-0 record vs. the MIAA and 5-1 vs. the NathCon. But given chances to shine against power conferences, the CCIW holds up; North Central beat UW-Eau Claire, 20-6, Wheaton beat UW-Platteville, 51-14, and Augustana lost to nationally ranked Central, 28-23.

However, North Central got the bounce from beating a WIAC school that also played Bethel and St. John's (might be one extra degree of separation there, but I think I got it right) ... In short, those SoS numbers aren't off the mark much. I didn't really see where DePauw beat anyone great, but they compare to North Central in that a lot of the normal teams on their schedule had records close to .500. And if you think about it, in the spirit of rewarding the teams who have to survive a challenge every week, not just schedule a good game then play three creampuffs, it's on the mark.