Around the Nation board

[jknezek]

Let me stop right here. Who do you think should have been ahead of the SAA?

Because this happens all the time with polls, Pat and I discuss it all the time. I rank the eight most powerful teams in the country and then I go "ehh, I don't think Wabash is a top-ten team per se, but I can only think of eight team I would rank ahead of them, so I reluctantly put them here at No. 9."

The SAA doesn't seem like the eighth-best conference to me either, anecdotally. But when evaluated against the credentials of the other conferences to date this season, that's where they landed.

I'm willing to not be right on this, I just want to hear a good case for who is preferred ahead of them and why.

I think the NJAC, MAC and maybe even the Centennial are better. The top of the NJAC plays B-SC competitively. Rowan, Cortland and Kean are all better than Millsaps, Rhodes and Center. Brockport probably is too, certainly better than Rhodes and Sewanee. So again, with the exception of B-SC, the NJAC is going to beat up on the rest of the SAA. I wouldn't mind seeing a Western Conn vs Sewanee game. Rowan lost out of division, Cortland lost the first game of the season, and Kean held UMHB to one of their lowest offensive outputs of the season. I know the out of conference percentages aren't as good, but the NJAC is just better and played harder teams in my opinion.

The MAC similarly is strong. Lycoming, and Widener are going to be a match for B-SC. Del Val, Albright, and Leb Valley take out the middle of the SAA most of the time, Stephenson and Misericordia are the only ones that Sewanee would match up with physically. Again, the percentages aren't there, but these teams played harder OOC and there are more (3 teams at the bottom instead of 1) that rack up losses because the conference is just bigger. Plus the MAC just doesn't play a lot of OOC, so they are already beating up on each other before most teams seasons even start.

The Centennial is my even matchup with the SAA. Both have 1 power team, JHU and B-SC, and I think B-SC wins but it's close. Gettysburg vs Millsaps would be interesting, I have no way of comparing them. Then the middle of the conference the Muhles, F&M etc are going to have no trouble with Centre. I watched both F&M and Centre play W&L. While F&M won because it was at home and the first game of the season, they were a better team in week 1 than Centre a few weeks later. I'd like to see Moravian and Susquehanna play Sewanee.

When it all boils out, I don't think the SAA played that hard of an OOC schedule through week 3. I also think since there are so few of them, some advantageous scheduling really made them look better than they were.

B-SC played Lagrange (mid-USAS, bleh) and Ave Maria (uggh). Plus one good game against Huntingdon at home. Millsaps played MC (down year), Lagrange again, and Point (uggh). There is very little here to judge. These teams should win these weak OOCs just like E&H and Bridgewater against there's. Centre arguably played a harder schedule with Bethany (mid PAC), W&L (mid/top ODAC) and Rose-Hulman (bleh), and they went 2-1 losing to the stiffest competition they faced. Rhodes played Wash U in a very down year and Claremont, both at home. Long trip for Claremont, a mid tier at best team. Then they got steamed-rolled by the only good competition they faced, B-SC. Sewanee played a weak Puget Sound, at home after a long trip, got rolled by their only good competition in W&L, and lost to a mid-tier, at best USAS team, Maryville.

When I look at who the SAA played, I'm not surprised they had a good OOC record. Between them, they played 3 games that might be considered difficult, Huntingdon and the two W&L games and went 1-2. Other than that, Bethany might be their best opponent collectively. Doesn't really say much when you look beyond the OOC record and who they really took down.

I'm not saying the SAA isn't good, I just think they're OOC record had them ranked over conferences that were much more challenged, and, in my opinion, wouldn't struggle top versus top, middle versus middle, bottom versus bottom except for a very good B-SC. As for doing the rankings, I have the same problem when I do the South Region Fan Pool. 1-3 are pretty set, 4-6 are somewhat interchangeable, as are 7-9, and 10-20 could be any number of teams so I just pick one to fill that last spot.

[Ralph Turner]

On the podcast, you and Pat talked about Pool B. As long as there are enough teams that in conferences that are re-arranging, we will have Pool B. We wil never get all of the teams herded into Pool A conferences.  Colleges are like cats that way. You cannot herd them. The good thing this year for Pool B is that it is full of worthy teams who have managed to play each other.

There most likely will be a head-to-head match up that goes a long way in designating the strongest team.

As for the number of Pool C bids, the NEFC realized that it was "leaving a bid on the table, all these many years".  Well, now they want to claim it.  There are so few 7- and 8-team conferences, it is not like we have been lax in the allocation of Pool C bids.  Nine and ten team conferences for football are the norm!  (And you have cited this in your columns elsewhere.) It is the popularity of the Pools and the AQ system that has seen so many schools offer football. There is no doubt that we have many more D-3 STUDENT-athletes playing football now than we did in the late 1990's, when the Pools were established.

[Pat Coleman]

There may always be a Pool B, but there may not always be a Pool B bid. When Pool B is just Wesley, Macalester and Presentation, there won't be a bid set aside.

[K-Mack]

We wil never get all of the teams herded into Pool A conferences.  Colleges are like cats that way. You cannot herd them.

The point I was making was that we very nearly had them all herded. Had the SAA decided not to pull its stunt, this season would have been down to four indies, including Huntingdon, which is headed to a conference, Presentation and Macalester, which disassociated themselves from conferences, and Wesley which is stuck until it can make the CAC a football conference.

Frostburg, Salisbury, Wesley, CNU and Southern Virginia make five. The CAC I bet could have Gallaudet if it wanted it, as the travel in the ECFC is absurd by comparison. Then they either have to poach CUA from the ODAC or find a seventh school.

Then the UAA four have picked their alignments.

So basically in 2015 or so, if the SCAC indies would get under the ASC umbrella for purposes of AQ access, everyone would be linked up again, no? Who am I forgetting that isn't referenced above?

[K-Mack]

Keith,

I have admired your work for a long time.    But, I would love to see a matchup of this year's NWC against any other conference.   For the last 10 years, my Linfield has dominated the conference.   But this year, after four games, four of our seven teams are 4-0.   And, PLU's two losses came against Top 10 teams!

Also, the NWC has had two national champions since we joined D-3 in 1998, more than any other conference, except for Mt. Union and Wisconsin-Whitewater.   And, we did it with two different teams!   No other conference can claim that.   During PLU's championship run in 1999, their toughest playoff game was in conference vs. Willamette, 28-24.   Plus, they won all five playoff games on the road.   Mt. Union nor Wisconsin-Whitewater have done that.

The NWC was dominate in the NAIA in the 1980s and 1990s, but, as a whole, tailed off in the 2000s.    Now, it appears our whole conference strength is back.     

GO CATS! GO!

I was around for both the 1999 and 2004 playoff runs and have taken all the facts you state into account when producing the rankings. The thing that's different now than it was then is that you have Pacific, which is brand new, and Puget Sound, which is not competitve. At times, there were very bad years from Menlo and L&C that had to be factored in, and there were no longer championship-level teams to balance it out.

Based on where things stood as I wrote the column last week, I think 5th was appropriate for the NWC, as it was two steps up from where it started the season. Many of the non-con games come against the SCIAC and ASC, which are good things.

The MIAC and Empire 8 have conference depth and non-con records that stack up against the NWC (please see the column) and have the top-level teams to match. The E8 sent two teams to the final eight last year and is off to a great start. The MIAC shot up to No. 3 because it hasn't lost a non-con game.

Here's the NWC blurb. I know you're an NWC fan so you want to see them recognized as the best, but I think fifth is very fair, especially given that the NWC's depth of good teams this year is not something that's always true.

5. NORTHWEST CONFERENCE (NWC)

Kickoff '12 ranking: 7th
High- and low-water marks: Second in 2005, seventh in 2012.
Average ranking, 2002-'12: 4.5
Non-conference record to date: 14-5
Verdict: Solid wins from top to bottom, with Linfield beating both Hardin-Simmons (ASC) and Cal Lutheran (SCIAC), Pacific Lutheran beating Redlands (SCIAC) and Pacific beating Occidental (SCIAC). Willamette's beaten two Texas teams, Whitworth has beaten St. Scholastica (UMAC), which went 10-1 last season. Except for Puget Sound, the entire conference has kicked in to the NWC's strong non-league showing this September.

[K-Mack]

If you want me to believe that the WIAC or OAC are great conferences, then show a different conference champ, and show better the next half decade in the tourney with other programs.

Here's where this argument is flawed. Literally no one else, save for ONU in 2005 and UW-SP in 2008 has beaten Mount Union or UW-Whitewater since 2005. So the standard of "your conference isn't good because you can't beat MU or UWW" must be applied to other conferences' champions as well.

And none of them, in five tries a year, ever beat UW-W or UMU, which cancels out the usefulness of that argument.

[HScoach]

K-Mack:  You should know better than to apply logic to an argument in here

In my less than humble opinion, here's how I'd rank rank them:

1.  WIAC
2. vacated because no one is worthy
3.  Keith's list

[K-Mack]

K-Mack:  You should know better than to apply logic to an argument in here

In my less than humble opinion, here's how I'd rank rank them:

1.  WIAC
2. vacated because no one is worthy
3.  Keith's list

So true, re: logic. Although this particular thread tends to be flooded with wise thoughts, which I appreciate.

If only the people would accept a list with a blank spot ... I might never fill in a No. 9 team on any top 25 ballot I turn in. Just to put some air between the teams that have a shot, and those that might win a few playoff games. Give or take three or four teams.

Also, as we see in the new ATN (coming out later today), dominating your conference for more than one season is not all that uncommon.

[middlerelief]

I agree with K-Mack on that one about a blank space to represent what always appears to be a wide gap in teams.

1a and 1b: MUC UWW

2) Vacant

T-3) MHB, Wesley, Linfield

Then you could say a list of repeated playoff contenders that make runs every so often: Bethel, STU, Wheaton, SJF etc.

Then a larger gap for the rest of the field

[hazzben]

I agree with K-Mack on that one about a blank space to represent what always appears to be a wide gap in teams.

1a and 1b: MUC UWW

2) Vacant

T-3) MHB, Wesley, Linfield

Then you could say a list of repeated playoff contenders that make runs every so often: Bethel, STU, Wheaton, SJF etc.

Then a larger gap for the rest of the field

Not sure UWW is up with Mount this year. And I'd put UMHB right with Mount.

[middlerelief]

Yes for this year for sure -- was thinking more along the lines of a last several seasons or so ranking.

Regardless -- I don't think there is too much doubt who the top 2 to 5 are, this season or the last decade.

[NCF]

Yes for this year for sure -- was thinking more along the lines of a last several seasons or so ranking.

Regardless -- I don't think there is too much doubt who the top 2 to 5 are, this season or the last decade.

I'd agree with the top 2, but after that I think it's wide open. It's a good thing this all gets played out on the field.As we've seen this seaon ....on any given Saturday...

[hazzben]

Yes for this year for sure -- was thinking more along the lines of a last several seasons or so ranking.

Regardless -- I don't think there is too much doubt who the top 2 to 5 are, this season or the last decade.

I'd agree with the top 2, but after that I think it's wide open. It's a good thing this all gets played out on the field.As we've seen this seaon ....on any given Saturday...

I think this is shaping up to be one of the more exciting seasons in recent memory. Mount and UMHB seem very good. But it has a feeling of being wide open, I love the level of unpredictability we've got this year. We really haven't seen something like this for a few years.

[middlerelief]

Yes - this on the surface has that feeling of wide open

And would like to regress back to the "toughest conference" discussion that was held last week -- the only team to score on MUC this season was a NON-OAC team.  The OAC may be host to one of the toughest programs of all time, but it is not the toughest conference.

Back to this week -- Bethel fan, congrats on the exciting win - and regrets to Concordia which will be really tough to get over -- I really respect that BU went for the win and not the time -- I really hope you guys (along with every remaining team in the MIAC) can beat STU this year.  Good luck.

[HScoach]

Yes - this on the surface has that feeling of wide open

And would like to regress back to the "toughest conference" discussion that was held last week -- the only team to score on MUC this season was a NON-OAC team.  The OAC may be host to one of the toughest programs of all time, but it is not the toughest conference.

Back to this week -- Bethel fan, congrats on the exciting win - and regrets to Concordia which will be really tough to get over -- I really respect that BU went for the win and not the time -- I really hope you guys (along with every remaining team in the MIAC) can beat STU this year.  Good luck.

Before you write off the OAC this season, please note that Mount's schedule is very back loaded.  They opened with the very bottom of the conference teams.   The last half of the schedule, specifically weeks 7, 8 and 9 will see much tougher opponents.