Around the Nation board

[K-Mack]

I think a good resource, which I'll start on the Around the Nation board, would be to keep a running list of significant injuries. When evaluating results, it would really pay to know if a certain star missed Game X or only played the first four weeks. I'll start the list on the ATN thread, but please help me populate and maintain it.

Basically, if you only follow one conference ... as we get to the point of following other schools, it'd be nice to know.

GOod places to start our list would be HSU QB Jordan Neal and Rowan QB Mike Orihel.

A good format might be like:
QB Keith McLeinart, out 4-6 weeks, elbow, games missed (# and opponents)

[HScoach]

I agree with hscoach (stunning, I know...)

Ouch.  That hurt.   

[ktroutvon]

Keith,

  Do you really think that the LL has a shot at Pool C?  It would be nice to think that, but I feel like the sentiment against the league would keep it from getting one this year. 

  That said, if you look at SJF's opponents and play this year, it doesn't seem clear that they would be a lock for a pool C over 2nd place in the LL.  Particularly with Ithaca's slip-up last week.  As of right now, their best win is against a Brockport team that may or may not finish above .500.  Assuming they beat Alfred, that would likely be their best win.  I guess the question is, would a win over Alfred be any better than a win over RPI/Hobart/Union (depending on how the LL shakes out)?

  The sentiment is that SJF has had more success in the playoffs, but in reality, they lost to a Delaware Valley team last year that took a beating to Rowan that was pretty similar to Hobart's loss to Rowan.  The big win over Muhlenberg is only a little better than Hobart's beating of Curry.

[K-Mack]

Technically,
a lot of the stuff mentioned below (past playoff performance, sentiment for/against a particular league) is not supposed to be playoff criteria. The committee is human though, and wants the best 32 teams it can get into the show, so I imagine it could be considered...

Pool C and Pool B bids Nos. 5, 6 or 7 are really going to depend on the strength of the field. If a few teams stumble late, and Union goes 10-0 and Hobart 9-1 (or whatever), yes, I do think an LL team can get in in Pool C.

First, it's just a gut feeling that 9-1s are in really good shape now with the four extra bids. But also, think about what kind of success an 8-2 would have to have to get in over a 9-1 (has to be someone like CNU, if their two losses were to unbeaten Rowan and one-loss Salisbury, or something).

And you have to look at the field as a whole and strength of the East. That doesn't mean that they select teams based on geography (you're supposed to pick the 32, then seed and set matchups) ... but it does mean that if other teams Hobart/Union/RPI played, or their opponents' opponents (like a Johns Hopkins, for example) finish well, it will reflect well on the LL teams. But it works both ways ... what if, and this is a big if ... Alfred was in the mix and W&L was the ODAC champ. Now Alfred's loss looks a lot less painful.

The NCAA committee has specific criteria, but I can't help but think some of it is a little subjective ... and the real answer to whether the LL has a good or poor rep in the committee's eyes hasn't quite been answered yet. 

But yes, Pool C shots in the LL are real, in my estimation. What if RPI is 9-1 with its only loss to a 10-0 Hobart team in 3 OTs. You're going to tell me one is playoff worthy and one isn't? That's tough. ... same thing with SJF, it really hasn't been solved yet whether their certain wins are strong or weak, but if Ithaca is a one-loss AQ, and SJF played them into OT, you have to assume the two are almost equal ... but again, it depends who else is in the B/C mix and what they've done.

Keith,

  Do you really think that the LL has a shot at Pool C?  It would be nice to think that, but I feel like the sentiment against the league would keep it from getting one this year. 

  That said, if you look at SJF's opponents and play this year, it doesn't seem clear that they would be a lock for a pool C over 2nd place in the LL.  Particularly with Ithaca's slip-up last week.  As of right now, their best win is against a Brockport team that may or may not finish above .500.  Assuming they beat Alfred, that would likely be their best win.  I guess the question is, would a win over Alfred be any better than a win over RPI/Hobart/Union (depending on how the LL shakes out)?

  The sentiment is that SJF has had more success in the playoffs, but in reality, they lost to a Delaware Valley team last year that took a beating to Rowan that was pretty similar to Hobart's loss to Rowan.  The big win over Muhlenberg is only a little better than Hobart's beating of Curry.

[Pat Coleman]

I too think a 9-1 LL team has a shot.

[gordonmann]

Me three.

Hey, no wait, I thought we hated the LL? 

[redswarm81]

K-Mack
Posted on: Today at 01:30:11 PM

Pool C shots in the LL are real, in my estimation. What if RPI is 9-1 with its only loss to a 10-0 Hobart team in 3 OTs. You're going to tell me one is playoff worthy and one isn't? That's tough. ... same thing with SJF, it really hasn't been solved yet whether their certain wins are strong or weak, but if Ithaca is a one-loss AQ, and SJF played them into OT, you have to assume the two are almost equal ... but again, it depends who else is in the B/C mix and what they've done.

Whoa, wait 'til the guys on the LL and E8 boards learn that K-Mack agrees w/me that a 3OT win is a lot more like a tie (thus indicating teams of equal strength) than a monkey stomp (which would lead one to think that the winner had a stronger team than the loser).

What might throw a wrench into your thinking is that RPI only plays 9 games, so 8-1 is as good as they can do, with the 1 being in triple OT on the road.  I think Hobart only plays 9 games as well.

More speculation, though: If Hobart wins out, those pumpkinheads get the Pool A, and RPI's only loss is (in 3OT) to a playoff team.  Then K-Mack's predicted NEFC champ Endicott looms large as another playoff team, one that was monkey stomped by RPI. That, and the inscrutable QoW index that looks pretty good for RPI right now (though it's rather meaningless before selection time), could make RPI a relatively easy Pool C choice if the Selection Committee follows its own criteria.

[Pat Coleman]

Yes, well, I think an 8-1 LL team has NO shot. That's why I said 9-1.

Yeah, I'm kidding. But seriously, get with the program and schedule 10 games. The '90s are over with.

[K-Mack]

What might throw a wrench into your thinking is that RPI only plays 9 games, so 8-1 is as good as they can do, with the 1 being in triple OT on the road.  I think Hobart only plays 9 games as well.

I knew there were some 9-game schedules somewhere, but my brain is pretty fried after ATN is finally finished each week ... you know the feeling of cramming for a test, then the day after you forget 80% of what you studied?

Let's just say it's a good thing it's all here in writing.

Feedback time.

[K-Mack]

So my favorite one from recent weeks:

----- Original Message -----
From: E. N. D.
To: keith@d3football.com
Sent: Monday, October 17, 2005 3:20 PM
Subject: Liberty League

Your coverage of the LL is not even paltry. What gives?

I have no response to that. None.

Here are a few others I've already answered the writer:

(from before the Ricca story went out front this week; P.S. See also Washington Times)

hello, keith, i am xxxxxxx a first year player from catholic u, and i think you need to know whats going on around this school.  This program that, Coach clark has, got to be and must be the best turnaround a 1 year change, coming from 0-10 last year, we have a 3-3 record right now, and one of those loses was from mcdanle(spelling) college, who were ranked 23rd.  This past week we shown a new life around here, we had school records shattered and a near record nationaly.  We had total offense 728 yards, which i think is like 3 yards short of the national record. and a kid name, nick bilivo(spelling #80) who had 378 yards 4 touchdowns, which broke a school record.  This team as you can tell is truning around to become a powerhouse in offense, we just needed some time to turn things around and i see the light.  I think its important that you recozie this great bunch of teammates of mine because we busted our butt to turn this program around as of now, the future is looking bright

Thanks... xxxxx

xxxxx@cua.edu

I lost the response, but basically it  said that, given the ties of the site's founder/publisher and myself to the ODAC, we are well aware of what's going on at Catholic ... and while it's nice that they are .500, with a forfeit win, it's not even Coach Clark's best turnaround (he flipped them from 1-9 to 8-2 in 1994 or something) ... Given how high the bar was set by the teams in the late 1990s at CUA, I'm sure coach Clark and most alumni would agree that it's a little early for us to be writing about how Catholic is back/turned around.

It was much more kind and eloquent when I said it before though.

More to come ...

[K-Mack]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subject: Most consecutive wins
Age: 41
Hometown: Palmyra, VA
Team I follow: Linfield
Notes: In your report on teams with the longest current winning streaks you list Trinity at 25 games. How is that possible? Did you mean regular-season games? If you're also including playoff games they couldn't possibly have won 25 straight. Including the playoffs every team in D-3 football lost at least one game last year - with the exception of Linfield.

Thanks for the good stuff though!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nope,
it's possible. Trinity plays in the NESCAC, which does not permit its teams
to play out-of-conference opponents or accept playoff bids. They're
restricted to an eight-game season, and won six or seven to end '02, then
went 8-0, 8-0 and are 4-0 this year.

Linfield is second though. Thanks for writing in ... There's a Palmyra in
Virginia?

** Perhaps this fellow thought we were referring to Trinity (Texas) too. I dunno.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Subject: Freudian slip
> Age: 53
> Hometown: Greensboro, NC
> Team I follow: Guilford Quakers, ODAC
> Notes: I've heard of "football factories," but isn't it a bit of a stretch to call the Middle Atlantic Conference the "Middle Atlantic Corporation" as seen in this week's ATN?  lol
>
> I'm sure it's an inadvertent error, but it was a bit funny.
>
> Thanks, xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx, Guilford College Quaker '74
> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Believe it or not,
that's actually what the MAC prefers, when they're not calling themselves the MASCAC (Middle Atlantic States Collegiate Athletic Corporation)

Go ahead and Google it, or check www.lvc.edu/mac/

** Well, now that I think about it, I'm not sure what the MAC really prefers. If you look at some of the stuff I have from different years, some says conference, some just wants it to be known as Freedom and Commonwealth (i.e. the Middle Atlantic Conferences).

Corporation was on purpose though. And if it wasn't, not sure what was Freudian about it ... but not to be mean, let's move on:

> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
> Subject: Glad for a week off
> Age: 45
> Hometown: Sterling, VA
> Team I follow: Ferrum Panthers
> Notes: Keith,
>
> I have to agree with your assessment of who will probably get in the
playoffs from USASC (CNU). I doubt that Ferrum will be looked at by anyone
as the favorite. The concern that you mentioned for FC to look past an
opponent is more real in the next 2 games than it would have been against
Methodist. I worry about FC's inability to stop the pass, and while GC, and
NCW are not the cream of the crop, I think it would be very easy for FC to
misjudge their abilities, and have their season ended before the CNU game. I
am hoping for a more positive outcome however.
>
> I have to counter that realist sounding messsage with a note of hope that
on a cool clear November day in the foothills of the Blue Ridge in Franklin
County Virgina, (with a wild and crazy home crowd behind them)the improbable
may happen. It will be an opportunity for the hopefully undefeated Ferrum
Panthers to surprise the DIII world, and make the playoffs at 10-0. and
maybe get ranked.
>
> At any rate, they are certainly better than the preseason USASC prediction
of fifth. And I think they get most of their personnel back next year. Talk
about looking ahead!
>
> Thanks for your support of D3 football
>
> xxxxx x
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------

Xxxxx,
You have single-handedly restored my respect for Ferrum football fans. Very
thoughtful and classy note. Mostly this year we've received "why aren't they
ranked yet?!" ... which is par for the course, and not a big deal ... just
gets tiring after a while.

  I would hope that the closer Ferrum gets to the playoffs, the tighter the
focus becomes. Obviously, you want to practice precisely and play loose, and
not put unnecessary pressure on yourselves ... and I agree, it is simply
human nature, especially for kids, to have lapses when they don't respect
the opponent.

  Enjoy the Methodist win. I thought that could have been a stumbling block,
but now it is full speed ahead. Have fun with it, and thanks for writing.

** More to come...

[Toby Taff]

Hey,

ESPN is actually covering 2 DIII stories in their ESPNews headlines, as listed on the college football page.  The tragedy in Minnesota and The MUC loss.

[smedindy]

Oh, K-Mack - thanks for the props and I got your back on any poll questions from the Wabash faithful.

Poll or computer ratings, I don't think ANYONE could have predicted what happened to Mt. Union and Hardin-Simmons. Going to be interesting, eh?

[Nbrown64]

Two major Wheaton players missed the Illinois Wesleyan game:

TB Luke Bazacas was injured on the second play of the game.
FB Brad Thornton was injured the week before.

I apologize for not knowing the severity of the injuries.

[K-Mack]

OK,
I'm pretty much just going to play question-and-answer with as much feedback as I can, starting with the current stuff first.

----- Original Message -----
From: xxxxxxxxxxx@aol.com
To: keith@d3football.com
Sent: Thursday, October 27, 2005 12:09 PM
Subject: Just a question


I play football for Wilkes and I was wondering how you do the playoff spots, or if you could tell me anything you know off-hand about how my teams chances are for making the playoffs. It would be greatly appreciated.

Yeah,
Here are a couple good resources.

First, start with an explanation of how things work: http://www.d3football.com/faq.php?question&category=Playoffs

Next, once you understand automatic qualifiers (Pool A) and at-large (Pool C), which are the only ones that pertain to you, a good place to follow this stuff is our message board, Post Patterns and this thread: http://www.d3sports.com/post/index.php?topic=3941.0

That's playoff projections, but you can also try the thread labeled Pool C.

Or the weekly Around the Nation column: http://www.d3football.com/atn.php

For specific chances regarding Wilkes, you guys will have to win out and finish 8-2 to have a decent shot in Pool C. Subjectively, the close loss to Del Val probably helps and the loss to William Paterson hurts, but technically a lot of the selection committee's criteria is based on strength of schedule and in-region wins, so it really depends on what other teams in similar situations around the country do, and how you stack up against them after Week 11.

Hope that helps,

Keith McMillan
Keith@D3football.com