FB: American Southwest Conference

[Toby Taff]

Agreed Bill,  There have been too many fumbles over the past 2 weeks, but the overall play of the team was encouraging.  It was also encouraging to see Matt Hurst come off of his injury and be productive and Kyle Noack do a good job at qb going 7 of 10 for 112yds.  Next week is homecoming and a chance to clinch against Howard Payne. 

It would be nice to see Quincy back if he is going to come back this season.  I just don't think it would be good for him to come back for the playoffs without reps in a few games leading in.  The CRU have had 6 rushers go for over 100 this season, so if everyone is/gets healthy they should be able to smash people in the mouth and play their preferred ball control offense.  I think the Cru needs these last two games to be clean and disciplined to really get the engine rolling for playoffs.  If they can manage that, I'll feel better.

[Bill McCabe]

Did Noack start the game and if so why?  How did Hurst look at RB.  Sounds like Tucker did a good job at RB.

[Toby Taff]

Noack did start the game, and played the first half.  According to interviews and press coverage after the game it was because Noack showed something in practice during the week.  Hurst had 6 carries fr 21yds and a td, so he did ok.  I didn't get to go to ETBU, I was at a funeral yesterday, so I listened to the game in the car and at my folks house.  Apparently, tucker was a beast.  the temple telegram's article has good coverage.

[CUAfan]

CUAfan, I think that your algorithms do not hold up as you get farther from the middle of the sample population.

When the middle three play each other or the bottom four or the top two play each other, it works, but it doesn't work outside those ranges very well or amongst those groups.

I don't know if that's what it is or what, but I'm pretty sure that I'm doing something wrong. For the record, picking the winners isn't really that hard, it's the scores that's tough. I'm going to try to get something different together for next weekend.

As long as I'm here, here are the new rankings. This time, I came to my senses and took out non-conference games. And before anyone asks, no this isn't saying that HSU is necessarily better than UMHB, just that HSU has been winning in slightly more impressive fashion.

1. Hardin-Simmons, .308
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor, .304
3. Mississippi College, .049
4. Louisiana College, .023
5. East Texas Baptist, -.008
6. Sul Ross State, -.098
7. Texas Lutheran, -.107
8. Howard Payne, -.182
9. McMurry, -.228

[CUAfan]

Okay, I've been working on my methods of predicting scores, and I have something that's a little more complicated. I like it better though. Let me know if these look better than the ones before.

Mississippi College 32, Sul Ross State 15 in 26 possessions
Hardin-Simmons 54, McMurry 5 in 24 possessions
Louisiana College 30, Texas Lutheran 16 in 26 possessions
Mary Hardin-Baylor 55, Howard Payne 0 in 26 possessions

One word on the UMHB/HPU game...using this new method, HPU actually comes out as scoring -3 points in the game. I don't really like that the method can give such a result, but for the time being I'm just taking it to mean that the HPU offense is vastly overmatched by the UMHB defense and is very unlikely to score.

[Bill McCabe]

CUAfan, I think that your algorithms do not hold up as you get farther from the middle of the sample population.

When the middle three play each other or the bottom four or the top two play each other, it works, but it doesn't work outside those ranges very well or amongst those groups.

I don't know if that's what it is or what, but I'm pretty sure that I'm doing something wrong. For the record, picking the winners isn't really that hard, it's the scores that's tough. I'm going to try to get something different together for next weekend.

As long as I'm here, here are the new rankings. This time, I came to my senses and took out non-conference games. And before anyone asks, no this isn't saying that HSU is necessarily better than UMHB, just that HSU has been winning in slightly more impressive fashion.

1. Hardin-Simmons, .308
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor, .304
3. Mississippi College, .049
4. Louisiana College, .023
5. East Texas Baptist, -.008
6. Sul Ross State, -.098
7. Texas Lutheran, -.107
8. Howard Payne, -.182
9. McMurry, -.228

When you look at common opponents for HSU and UMHB, the results are very similar.  That's what I would expect from these two good teams.  Since, UMHB beat HSU, I think they should get the edge.  I'm sure HSU is chomping at the bit for another shot at UMHB.

[Bill McCabe]

Okay, I've been working on my methods of predicting scores, and I have something that's a little more complicated. I like it better though. Let me know if these look better than the ones before.

Mississippi College 32, Sul Ross State 15 in 26 possessions
Hardin-Simmons 54, McMurry 5 in 24 possessions
Louisiana College 30, Texas Lutheran 16 in 26 possessions
Mary Hardin-Baylor 55, Howard Payne 0 in 26 possessions

One word on the UMHB/HPU game...using this new method, HPU actually comes out as scoring -3 points in the game. I don't really like that the method can give such a result, but for the time being I'm just taking it to mean that the HPU offense is vastly overmatched by the UMHB defense and is very unlikely to score.

CUAfan,  you might still have a glitch.  5 Points for McM.     That's one of the most difficult scores to make.

[cowboyfan]

As long as I'm here, here are the new rankings. This time, I came to my senses and took out non-conference games. And before anyone asks, no this isn't saying that HSU is necessarily better than UMHB, just that HSU has been winning in slightly more impressive fashion.

1. Hardin-Simmons, .308
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor, .304
3. Mississippi College, .049
4. Louisiana College, .023
5. East Texas Baptist, -.008
6. Sul Ross State, -.098
7. Texas Lutheran, -.107
8. Howard Payne, -.182
9. McMurry, -.228
[/quote]


I think HSU has been winning in a MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE MANOR. Lets see how many points, yardage UMHB hangs on HPU this week with such and injury "devistated team." I can assure you UMHB as injury riden as they may be this season would have recieved a much different result had they faced HSU the SOU week. I think HSU in general would love another shot at UMHB. Just not in the first round. However should that chance be given I can already hear the injury excuses coming from the UMHB side. Lets hope UMHB sustanes no more injuries and that HSU gets a rematch in round two. Congrats cowboys on another slightly IMPRESSIVE win this weekend. I'm sure your win this weekend will be just as slightly impressive too. GO COWBOYS. GET HEALTHY CRU.

[Toby Taff]

I can assure you UMHB as injury riden as they may be this season would have recieved a much different result had they faced HSU the SOU week.

Maybe; maybe not.  I watched HSU play several games prior to the UMHB game and I'd guess that the UMHB game gave them the confidence to be able to dominate.  If HSU had kept playing conference patsies close, i think the result would have been the same.

[Bill McCabe]

cowboyfan,  you must be looking at something different from me.  Among common opponents, UMHB has a greater point difference than HSU in all games, except ETBU.  HSU won by 28 and UMHB by 21.  In the all important head to head meeting, UMHB holds a 2 point advantage.   

[cowboyfan]

I can assure you UMHB as injury riden as they may be this season would have recieved a much different result had they faced HSU the SOU week.

Maybe; maybe not.  I watched HSU play several games prior to the UMHB game and I'd guess that the UMHB game gave them the confidence to be able to dominate.  If HSU had kept playing conference patsies close, i think the result would have been the same.

NICE. You might be right Toby thank God for UMHB. You guys get credit for two great programs. HSU and UMHB. maybe the team just started to play better together that week. Maybe they brought the intesity level up a bit. Or maybe your theory is correct they owe it all (including their recent success) to UMHB. Not quite sure but either way this year i'd like another shot at UMHB just to see.

[Toby Taff]

I can assure you UMHB as injury riden as they may be this season would have recieved a much different result had they faced HSU the SOU week.

Maybe; maybe not.  I watched HSU play several games prior to the UMHB game and I'd guess that the UMHB game gave them the confidence to be able to dominate.  If HSU had kept playing conference patsies close, i think the result would have been the same.

NICE. You might be right Toby thank God for UMHB. You guys get credit for two great programs. HSU and UMHB. maybe the team just started to play better together that week. Maybe they brought the intesity level up a bit. Or maybe your theory is correct they owe it all (including their recent success) to UMHB. Not quite sure but either way this year i'd like another shot at UMHB just to see.

I don't think they owe it all to UMHB.  The offense for HSU has been clicking all season and no doubt the defense was greatly improved this year.  I do think the special emotions that the UMHB/HSU game brings out every year added to the increase in defensive intensity.  In 04, there's no doubt that the beating UMHB took at the hands of HSU is what raised the bar for the Cru.  Even yessir has said as much.  I think when it comes to HSU & UMHB, the loser of the regular season game is usually amped and more focused the rest of the season so they can get a pool C bid and have a shot at revenge, because we can be fairly certain that HSU and UMHB will meet again in the playoffs if both get in.  I think what you have is an iron sharpens iron situation.  UMHB makes HSU better and HSU makes UMHB better.  I'm just fortunate enough to get to be an alumnus of both schools so I can pull for both teams, but the Cru are always at the top of the list.

[CUAfan]

CUAfan,  you might still have a glitch.  5 Points for McM.     That's one of the most difficult scores to make.

Yeah, I thought that too. If you like, you can take it to mean that they're more likely to score 6 than 3.

[Toby Taff]

On my way to the library I noticed that HSU had a JV game going so I stopped by.  They're playing UMHB.  When I got there it was 21 - 2 with 13:00 in the 4th.  When I left to hit the stacks, it was 35 - 2 UMHB with a little over 8 minutes left in the game.

[Ralph Turner]

On my way to the library I noticed that HSU had a JV game going so I stopped by.  They're playing UMHB.  When I got there it was 21 - 2 with 13:00 in the 4th.  When I left to hit the stacks, it was 35 - 2 UMHB with a little over 8 minutes left in the game.

I understand that McMurry JV beat HSU JV about a week ago!