FB: American Southwest Conference

[Sader4life]

Quick question for the Football experts:
This week Millsaps plays Birmingham-Sydney, a game which if I am not mistaken does not count towards their regional record. The current regional rankings published today are as follows:
South Region
1. Millsaps 8-0 9-0
2. Muhlenberg 9-0 9-0
3. Mary Hardin-Baylor 7-0 8-1
4. Hardin-Simmons 9-1 9-1
5. Catholic 7-1 8-1
6. Hampden-Sydney 7-1 8-1
7. Washington and Jefferson 7-1 8-1
8. Wesley 3-1 7-1
9. Huntingdon 7-1 8-1
10. Christopher Newport 6-1 7-1
If UMHB was to blow out Sul Ross and tie Millsaps at 8-O in region is there anyway that UMHB would overtake Millsaps in the Regional Rankings, with their only road game being a trip to Pennyslvania to play Muhlenburg who would clinch the number 1 seed and Home field if they won- just a thought- I know right now Millsaps has a tougher schedule but is the game against Birmingham Sydney going to give UMHB a chance to overtake them in the rankings.

[Sader4life]

I dont know how accurate these numbers are or if they are even calculated in the equations but this is what is listed for strength of schedule
Team Regional record Regional win % Opponents win % O-O win %
46 Mount Union  8-0  1.000  0.562  0.533 
90 Millsaps  8-0  1.000  0.515  0.524 
92 Willamette  8-0  1.000  0.515  0.541 
99 Cortland State  9-0  1.000  0.510  0.507 
105 Monmouth  10-0  1.000  0.507  0.492 
112 Trine  9-0  1.000  0.504  0.504 
115 Mary Hardin-Baylor  7-0  1.000  0.503  0.519 
122 North Central (Ill.)  9-0  1.000  0.496  0.574 
143 Occidental  8-0  1.000  0.475  0.511 
154 Wabash  8-0  1.000  0.469  0.518 
155 Muhlenberg  9-0  1.000  0.469  0.559 
207 Case Western Reserve  8-0  1.000  0.406  0.522 
208 LaGrange  7-0  1.000  0.405  0.485 
211 Husson  7-0  1.000  0.393  0.509 
95 Hardin-Simmons  9-1  0.900  0.511  0.512 
136 Curry  9-1  0.900  0.482  0.499 

[Toby Taff]

Sader4life,

just wanted to say its birmingham southern not sydney.

[Sader4life]

And I am sorry Millsaps plays Birmingham- Southern and not Birmingham Sydney as I had stated- I apologize for the mistake But I still dont think it is an in-region game.

[Sader4life]

Forgive me I am a rookie here, but to summarize what i am saying in much simpler terms, Millsaps plays two games that do not go on their regional record (Belhaven and Birmingham-Southern.....not Sydney haha). UMHB plays two games that don't go on the regional ranking (Southern Nazarene and Southern Oregon)- Not taking anything away from the Sul Ross football program or trying to take anythin for granted but UMHB could potentially be 8-0 in region and so could Millsaps.... who then would have the tougher strength of schedule and therefore clinch the higher seed in the region- I am pretty sure Muhlenburg will be Number 1 I am just fuzzy about the UMHB and Millsaps situation.

[Ralph Turner]

I don't think that UMHB can jump Millsaps.

Pending several games in the East Region, and even Cortland State giving Ithaca another loss, there may only be 6-7 bids given in the East.

Muhlenberg is logical to be moved into the East if Ithaca defeats Cortland to leave no undefeated teams.

If the committee decides that Muhlenberg is stays and MUC moves to the East, then UMHB would travel Millsaps.

[wesleydad]

sader4life and ralph, if you want a home game, win yours and wesley takes out muhlenburg and i will be glad to travell to umhb and visit with you guys.  beats the cold on the east coast about now.

[Bill McCabe]

Ralph,  where does HSU go?

[crufootball]

I have a question for any of you out there that follow D2 or DI AA, are seedings actually followed for them or is cost a guiding factor as well?

[Ralph Turner]

Ralph,  where does HSU go?

I think that HSU goes to UMHB.

[Ralph Turner]

sader4life and ralph, if you want a home game, win yours and Wesley takes out Muhlenburg and i will be glad to travel to umhb and visit with you guys.  beats the cold on the east coast about now.

Wesleydad,  I saw that Wesley moved up in the Rankings this week.

I think that you are now the #2 Pool B.

[Toby Taff]

Ralph,  where does HSU go?

I think that HSU goes to UMHB.

No No No No NO

[Ron Boerger]

Ralph,  where does HSU go?

I think that HSU goes to UMHB.

No No No No NO

Unless the eight teams in the bracket can produce another scenario with the same number of plane trips (or fewer) in the first round, it's probably Yes Yes Yes Yes YES. 

Geography/plane trips/total cost trump fairness every time.  We see it in Texas year after year, we've seen it on the West Coast.

[Toby Taff]

I know, but I don't have to like it or speak it.   I'm hoping that not speaking it will somehow change the reality.

[CUAfan]

Been doing some work on individual player statistics to try to even out the effects of opportunity on raw totals. So far I've only done QB's. What I did was find the league average number of pass attempts (roughly 264), then apply an individual's percentage of team attempts to that to adjust for how pass-happy (or not) the player's coach and/or system are. I then applied the player's current completion percentage, yards per attempt, TD rate, and INT rate to get an adjusted total for each. There are some flaws to the methodology, but it's better than the raw totals. The list below is sorted by adjusted passing yards, and the numbers are rounded.

Name, TM - CMP/ATT, YDS, TD, INT; RSH, YDS, TD
J. Feaster, HSU - 174/253, 2332, 23, 6; 65, 200, 7
D. Lewis, LC - 151/257, 1756, 13, 8; 60, -173, 0
S. Oehlschlaeger, ETBU - 138/258, 1597, 10, 18; 28, -24, 3
J. Saenz, UMHB - 79/165, 1590, 17, 6; 70, 345, 5
J. Waldon, TLU - 117/230, 1489, 8, 10; 81, 28, 3
Z. Hubbard, HPU - 127/227, 1214, 9, 12; 84, -28, 4
M. Morales, SRSU - 111/251, 1175, 6, 11; 78, 118, 4
T. Reyer, MC - 80/151, 1023, 6, 8; 59, 258, 2
K. Noack, UMHB - 59/92, 810, 6, 4; 19, 53, 1
T. Penn, MCM - 59/140, 783, 4, 10; 35, 43, 0
B. Moore, MCM - 48/113, 534, 1, 8; 18, 24, 0
A. Shaffer, MC - 55/98, 425, 2, 9; 6, -21, 0


Sorry about the way the list is formatted. It's the best way I could think of to present it.