FB: American Southwest Conference

[jamtod]

We're not going to get to ten, are we?

If we add North Central and Muhlenberg, then we are there I guess?

Nobody has beaten the Mules, so I can't say for certain that they couldn't/don't have the talent to do it.

[Toby Taff]

Back in 2005, there were rumblings of like minded institutions moving to D-4.  Do the math, 247 divided by 6.5 = 38 bids.

IIRC, the Division IV movement was spearheaded by leaders of institutions that were quite frankly not interested in committing the minimum resources necessary to athletics to be competitive.  Basically, they wanted a club sports division.  They wanted to improve their own win-loss results by convincing some percentage of the division to also not really care.  No thanks. 

I do agree that the Division III tournament is too small for the number of institutions the division has.  I do not agree that we need to find creative ways to carve out access for the schools that we don't think are going to win the championship.  To date, even with the limited number of at-large bids, I don't think anybody can reasonably point to one single instance where the size of the field excluded a team that would be considered a contender to win the tournament.  Good teams do get left out.  But not the best teams.  The best teams are conference champions or have compiled a profile worthy of invitation.

I think the majority of the folks that have watched HSU play feel like this team could beat any team in the country. That is not true of 20 of the teams that will make the tournament. You can argue that they should not lose four fumbles against TLU if they want to win a national championship and that is true. But there about ten teams in the country with the talent necessary to win the tournament. HSU is one of those team. They are a contender. They will not get to contend.

I do not give the credit to HSU alot may have given them concerning the game the Cru had with them in 2019. While HSU can be formidable, I believe the very conservative play calling by UMHB had quite alot to do with it. I've seen them more formidable in previous seasons and only get to round one, But we'll never know about 2019 so mute point.

I mean that's one way to look at it. The other way is to give our defense a little respect seeing as how they are ranked 6th in overall defense, 21st in rushing, and 9th in passing yards allowed.... I didn't go look at all the stats for UMHB, but their overall defense was ranked 5th. So just MAYBE our guys had something to do with UMHBs offensive production back in our game.

i think the d played well, but the conservative calling by UMHB and the great clock possession were bigger factors. If you have explosive players, limiting TOP and running a conservative offense really hamstring a team

[DFWCrufan]

Yeah but that is the rub, having the opportunity and that takes having the ability to move on. We've seen in the past even when UMHB went in as a Pool C slot they moved on (Yeah they lost at HSU, long drive home that game) but the AQ champ didn't, so taken with history I don't see a great post season run. Yeah I could see a ST T game between the HSU/ST T. but then again ST T isn't top four, I was mentioning top ten programs HSU has never faced. (Well St T maybe not this season they are still finding their DI prospects)

[wally_wabash]

We're not going to get to ten, are we?

If we add North Central and Muhlenberg, then we are there I guess?

Nobody has beaten the Mules, so I can't say for certain that they couldn't/don't have the talent to do it.

So the list is:
Mount Union
UMHB
St John's
UW-Whitewater
Wheaton

HSU (following on your assumption)
Bethel (maybe, this feels like a stretch)
Salisbury
North Central
Muhlenberg


Now, does anybody really and honestly believe that any of the teams below the line I've drawn can win five games in a row, 2-3 of which are going to have to come against teams above the line? 

[DFWCrufan]

We're not going to get to ten, are we?

If we add North Central and Muhlenberg, then we are there I guess?

Nobody has beaten the Mules, so I can't say for certain that they couldn't/don't have the talent to do it.

So the list is:
Mount Union
UMHB
St John's
UW-Whitewater
Wheaton

HSU (following on your assumption)
Bethel (maybe, this feels like a stretch)
Salisbury
North Central
Muhlenberg


Now, does anybody really and honestly believe that any of the teams below the line I've drawn can win five games in a row, 2-3 of which are going to have to come against teams above the line?

No, and I would even question Wheaton, fine program but don't see them going deep. But then again we may see a program or two not go deep as well. But from History and what we  have seen I would say no.

[wally_wabash]

Wheaton absolutely belongs above the line this year.  They're on the short list for sure. 

[Wild Horse Rider]

I got sucked in.  I looked at this year and the previous 5 years.  I used the top 25 poll from week 11 as a measuring stick.  The history:
2014 final four consisted of #1, #3, #4, and #10 then #1 Whitewater won
2015 final four consisted of #1, #2, #4, and #5 then #1 Mount won
2016 final four consisted of #1, #4, #6, and #7 then #1 UMHB won
2017 final four consisted of #1, #2, #3, and #10 then #2 Mount won
2018 final four consisted of #1, #2, #5, and #14 then #2 UMHB won

I looked at the week 10 top 25 poll from this year stopped after 8 and here is what I saw:
#1 Mount Union has a SR QB, is outscoring opponents by 46 points, out-gaining them 360 YPG, are+13 in turnovers, beat #10 by 23 points, and have not played a single one score game
#2 UMHB is playing 2 SR QBs, is outscoring opponents by 42 points, out-gaining them 210 YPG, are+17 in turnovers, and beat #15 by 1 point in their only one score game
#3 UWW is playing a JR QB,  is outscoring opponents by 17 points, out-gaining them 88 YPG, are+7 in turnovers, and they have played 3 one score games and beat no ranked teams
#4 Wheaton has a SO QB, is outscoring opponents by 40 points, out-gaining them 310 YPG, are+4 in turnovers, beat #6 by 14 points, and have not played a single one score game
#5 Muhlenberg has a JR QB, is outscoring opponents by 29 points, out-gaining them 143 YPG, are+8 in turnovers, and beat #16 by 7 points in their only one score game
#6 North Central has a SR QB, is outscoring opponents by 43 points, out-gaining them 340 YPG, are+8 in turnovers, and they lost to #4 by 14 points but have not played a one score game
#7 Salisbury has a SO QB, is outscoring opponents by 28 points, out-gaining them 238 YPG, are+5 in turnovers, beat #12 by 7 points, and have played 3 one score games
#8 St Johns has a SR QB, is outscoring opponents by 29 points, out-gaining them 292 YPG, are+2 in turnovers, beat #9 by 19 points, beat #17 by 18 points, and lost to a team with a record below .500

Obviously making the field gives you a shot but as Wally said winning 5 games is a little different.  If you make it to the semi-finals in my opinion you have a chance.  Only 3 of the 20 teams in the past 5 years came from outside the 7.  Realistically looking at the top 8 I am scared off by Wheaton with the SO QB and Sailsbury with the option attack.  I did look at HSU and outside of the 2 losses the -6 in turnover margin is a little scary along with the 2 starting QBs (I know that UMHB is also doing that but their duo has only thrown 1 INT combined on the season compared to the 10 by HSU).

[USee]

I think the majority of the folks that have watched HSU play feel like this team could beat any team in the country. That is not true of 20 of the teams that will make the tournament. You can argue that they should not lose four fumbles against TLU if they want to win a national championship and that is true. But there about ten teams in the country with the talent necessary to win the tournament. HSU is one of those team. They are a contender. They will not get to contend.

Which ten?

Good question.

I'll start the list, if I have to work towards 10 teams total and I can base it on predictive, not resume:
Mount Union
UMHB
St John's
UW-Whitewater
Wheaton
HSU (following on your assumption)
Bethel (maybe, this feels like a stretch)
Salisbury

Probably need to add NCC to this list (Though I don't think all of these teams are realistic candidates for the National Title)

Considered that but left them out as I didn't know if they were actually competitive with Wheaton or not in the 20ish point loss.
Agreed that many of these are not "realistic candidates" but I was going with the original proposal of "talent necessary." Beyond the first 4 or 5 (and even a few of those), everything needs to break the right way to have any chance.

Game was tied going into the 4th Qtr and Wheaton converted a 4th down for a TD and NCC did not. That led to the 14 pt difference. I think these two teams are pretty close actually.

[umhb2001]

You have to win your conference for the best chance to make the playoffs. We want D3 to be about the play on the field and not about talking heads deciding everyone who participates in the playoffs. UMHB has fallen on the short end of this before and that's how it goes.

That's just simply not true lol. But for the question of the 10 teams, I don't necessarily think that HSU is one of them. We have the talent to do it, but we aren't disciplined enough and have not strung out a complete game yet. I do think we are one of the best 32 teams in the D III, but we all know it doesn't work like that. We shot ourselves in the foot against TLU. I think if you replay that game, we win by 3 touchdowns. It is what it is this year. I don't expect us to make the playoffs, but we'll see how the chips fall after Saturday.

Sure they did. 2003 or 2005. They lost a game and didn't make playoffs although having a great record. 

[umhb2001]

You have to win your conference for the best chance to make the playoffs. We want D3 to be about the play on the field and not about talking heads deciding everyone who participates in the playoffs. UMHB has fallen on the short end of this before and that's how it goes.

That's just simply not true lol. But for the question of the 10 teams, I don't necessarily think that HSU is one of them. We have the talent to do it, but we aren't disciplined enough and have not strung out a complete game yet. I do think we are one of the best 32 teams in the D III, but we all know it doesn't work like that. We shot ourselves in the foot against TLU. I think if you replay that game, we win by 3 touchdowns. It is what it is this year. I don't expect us to make the playoffs, but we'll see how the chips fall after Saturday.

Yep. 2003

[Pat Coleman]

Those 28-team playoffs were tough to get into.

[DFWCrufan]

Wheaton absolutely belongs above the line this year.  They're on the short list for sure.

I'd like to see the Cru face Wheaton again, I have a good friend on staff over there and our last meet up was lucrative (He had to put a UMHB Mom sticker on his car for two weeks) . But if things work they way I think they will unfortunately Wheaton would not move beyond 3rd round. But, I hate to say this but in all reality the wildcard is the Cru, I'm just not sold that we could punch through 3rd, just too many up's and downs to be that confident. If they continue to play as they did Vs. TLU then we'll be good.

[Ralph Turner]

Respectfully, BerryCollegeFan, we are constrained by the 5 week playoff window.  32 is the maximum number of teams that you can have in a 5 game playoff.

March Madness, technically a 7- game playoff tourney, gives 60 teams a first round bye.

[CowboyAlum261]

Well if you were holding out even a slim hope that HSU might make the playoffs, it's time to give it up. With TLU still ranked ahead of us after getting thrashed by MHB, I believe our chance of getting in has officially reached 0. (Although it's been below 5% since we lost to MHB, this feels like the nail in the coffin)

[BerryCollegeFan]

Respectfully, BerryCollegeFan, we are constrained by the 5 week playoff window.  32 is the maximum number of teams that you can have in a 5 game playoff.

March Madness, technically a 7- game playoff tourney, gives 60 teams a first round bye.

First time I have heard about the 5 week restriction.  I guess that time frame makes sense.