FB: American Southwest Conference

[The Third Division]

Congrats to Hardin Simmons on the win, look forward to seeing how the rest of your season plays out.

Now, in regards to UMHB.. I think it's clear a business decision has to be made for the sake of the program. I've been around UMHB football since the early 2000s (basically the beginning, just before our first stagg bowl appearance) and while we likely still have top 10 talent in D3, if not better, we have clearly lost some things as a program that are substantially more important than talent.

Many of us saw this coming last season when we couldn't put 4 qtrs together with the best offense in the nation returning almost every starters.

So yes, a business decision must be made immediately to maintain the UMHB football standard of excellence. Otherwise we will likely continue to move backwards, which is really hard to believe at this point but here we are. We have the BEST facilities in the country, we have 3 national titles in the last 7 seasons including 5 appearances and numerous recruiting advantages over 99.9% of the other institutions in D3. My worst fear is letting this mediocrity linger... I know we aren't used to it as a program but the search needs to begin tomorrow.

I believe this is more than a fair assessment and I'm open to any pushback, I really just want our program to be at the top again and I see no reason why it shouldn't be given the advantages.

Pushback:

Toughest non conference schedule in program history while trying to completely rebuild the offense. One returning starter on line. One returning receiver (3rd option in 2022), Trying to find a QB (Tingler didn't get any meaningful snaps in 2 yrs on Varsity, had to settle on a sophomore 3rd string).

With a typical CRU non conference schedule, UMHB is probably 7-1 or 6-2 after dropping the HSU game.

Agreement:

Last season's offensive play selection was questionable at times and seemed to rely too much on throw it up to B. Jordan. Great option to have but definitely more effective when you are distributing the ball to other receivers.

Although I don't think this is the new norm for the CRU, some big-time soul searching and analysis needs to be done by the coaches and players to ensure this seasons lack of discipline does not become a trend.

My Insight:

Personally, I don't think Phe is the long term solution at QB. He doesn't seem to have the zip necessary on the ball to be a top notch passer. Also have seen him throw some bad balls into coverage that he lucked out didn't get picked against the weaker teams in the ASC. I'm interested to see what the freshman Whitehead can do. Wonder if they will start finding ways to play guys to see what they have for next season.

God lord the penalties this year have just been atrocious. Maybe that is entitlement or not bringing in the right character guys in favor of "talent"...idk, but CRU have been undisciplined all year and giving way too much free yardage all season. Harmon has to get that under control next year!

Until checking the stats from your comment, I didn't realize penalties per game had gone up so much. Fans always notice penalties more in close games and I had written it off as that.

Penalty YPG
2023    67.50
2022    50.30
2021    44.80
2020    47.00
2019    40.50
2018    40.60

I recall brandon jordan SEVERAL TIMES caused penalties due to his behavior.

[TheChucker]

Riley Zayas posted his interview article with coach Harmon. It sounds like penalties are a known major issue. It takes leadership from both the coaches and players in tamping that stuff down. No matter how much coaches emphasize discipline, upper classmen need to step up to keep their more emotional teammates in line. Just my humble opinion and experience.

https://truetothecru.com/2023/10/30/3-takeaways-from-larry-harmons-weekly-press-conference-week-9/

[CowboyAlum261]

Wondering if chalk holds and Trinity and HSU win out of it is a sure thing that Trinity will host in the first round. Both teams, based on today's regional ranking, would be 1-1 against RRO. HSU has the slightest advantage in SOS. The common results against UMHB probably favor Trinity, but based on what Coach Moore said in the podcast I'm not sure difference in margin of victory is something they will look at there. I also tend to think HSU's RR win over UWL is better than Trinity's RR win over Berry, but again I'm not sure that is something the RAC will consider. This one really seems like a toss-up—maybe they look at last year's result and give the edge to Trinity?

[Ron Boerger]

Wondering if chalk holds and Trinity and HSU win out of it is a sure thing that Trinity will host in the first round. Both teams, based on today's regional ranking, would be 1-1 against RRO. HSU has the slightest advantage in SOS. The common results against UMHB probably favor Trinity, but based on what Coach Moore said in the podcast I'm not sure difference in margin of victory is something they will look at there. I also tend to think HSU's RR win over UWL is better than Trinity's RR win over Berry, but again I'm not sure that is something the RAC will consider. This one really seems like a toss-up—maybe they look at last year's result and give the edge to Trinity?

It's hard to say, but Trinity's SOS does nothing but go down the rest of the season.  I expect the Cowboys will host.

[D3Navy]

Wondering if chalk holds and Trinity and HSU win out of it is a sure thing that Trinity will host in the first round. Both teams, based on today's regional ranking, would be 1-1 against RRO. HSU has the slightest advantage in SOS. The common results against UMHB probably favor Trinity, but based on what Coach Moore said in the podcast I'm not sure difference in margin of victory is something they will look at there. I also tend to think HSU's RR win over UWL is better than Trinity's RR win over Berry, but again I'm not sure that is something the RAC will consider. This one really seems like a toss-up—maybe they look at last year's result and give the edge to Trinity?

Would the comparison of each team's loss make a difference?  Trinity lost a game it should have won while HSU was thumped.  Not a common opponent but clear differences in quality.

[crufootball]

Wondering if chalk holds and Trinity and HSU win out of it is a sure thing that Trinity will host in the first round. Both teams, based on today's regional ranking, would be 1-1 against RRO. HSU has the slightest advantage in SOS. The common results against UMHB probably favor Trinity, but based on what Coach Moore said in the podcast I'm not sure difference in margin of victory is something they will look at there. I also tend to think HSU's RR win over UWL is better than Trinity's RR win over Berry, but again I'm not sure that is something the RAC will consider. This one really seems like a toss-up—maybe they look at last year's result and give the edge to Trinity?

Would the comparison of each team's loss make a difference?  Trinity lost a game it should have won while HSU was thumped.  Not a common opponent but clear differences in quality.

You would think so but the chairman acted like a win is a win and a loss is a loss, that MOV doesn't matter and as long as the are regional ranked it doesn't matter if they are #1 or #7.

[CowboyAlum261]

Wondering if chalk holds and Trinity and HSU win out of it is a sure thing that Trinity will host in the first round. Both teams, based on today's regional ranking, would be 1-1 against RRO. HSU has the slightest advantage in SOS. The common results against UMHB probably favor Trinity, but based on what Coach Moore said in the podcast I'm not sure difference in margin of victory is something they will look at there. I also tend to think HSU's RR win over UWL is better than Trinity's RR win over Berry, but again I'm not sure that is something the RAC will consider. This one really seems like a toss-up—maybe they look at last year's result and give the edge to Trinity?

Would the comparison of each team's loss make a difference?  Trinity lost a game it should have won while HSU was thumped.  Not a common opponent but clear differences in quality.

A good point I should have included. But, to crufootball's point, Coach Moore really made it sound like MOV will not be considered, and that all RR wins/losses will be treated the same—ie, win vs region 1 #7 is treated the same as win over region 6 #1. If that's true, I think the committee has a really hard time picking between these two teams...

[TheChucker]

Maybe some D3 experts could chip in, but I thought the committees considered SOS in seeding. According to the NCAA extended stats, Hardin Simmons sits just ahead of Trinity in that metric.

Hardin Simmons
Past opponents: .554, Future: .375, Cumulative: .514

Trinity
Past opponents: .545, Future: .421, Cumulative: .500

These metrics will change by year-end, of course.

HSU's best win is better while Trinity's loss is better. HSU's non-conference was tougher on paper. Personally, I hope the NCAA throw's HSU a bone on a great season (so far), not hosting a playoff game in a long time, and having the cojones to travel up to a very tough La Crosse program, and winning, for non-conference.

[jknezek]

I think you are looking at a toss-up here. If these two teams get paired together, and I agree that's likely even if it shouldn't happen, both have solid cases for hosting. There is simply no way to know, ahead of time, which of the criteria the committee will rely on to make that final decision.

[Ron Boerger]

I think you are looking at a toss-up here. If these two teams get paired together, and I agree that's likely even if it shouldn't happen, both have solid cases for hosting. There is simply no way to know, ahead of time, which of the criteria the committee will rely on to make that final decision.

Agree, but you'll get a really good insight with next week's regional rankings.  The national committee can override the regional's rankings but it doesn't happen often. 

[jknezek]

I think you are looking at a toss-up here. If these two teams get paired together, and I agree that's likely even if it shouldn't happen, both have solid cases for hosting. There is simply no way to know, ahead of time, which of the criteria the committee will rely on to make that final decision.

Agree, but you'll get a really good insight with next week's regional rankings.  The national committee can override the regional's rankings but it doesn't happen often.

If both teams finish as expected, I'm not sure why the National would override the Regional. There just won't be cause as the two teams will be close by criteria. Hard to make a case of an egregious mistake when the difference is paper thin.

[CowboyAlum261]

I think you are looking at a toss-up here. If these two teams get paired together, and I agree that's likely even if it shouldn't happen, both have solid cases for hosting. There is simply no way to know, ahead of time, which of the criteria the committee will rely on to make that final decision.

Agree, but you'll get a really good insight with next week's regional rankings.  The national committee can override the regional's rankings but it doesn't happen often.

If both teams finish as expected, I'm not sure why the National would override the Regional. There just won't be cause as the two teams will be close by criteria. Hard to make a case of an egregious mistake when the difference is paper thin.

I tend to agree that this question will be pretty much answered by the real regional rankings.

[Ron Boerger]

One thing I didn't consider because I thought it was a mistake ... but HSU has one less game against D3 (6-1 vs 7-1 presently), apparently due to the SRSU D2 transition.  For ranking purposes that game only counts as a secondary criteria to be used if everything else is even.  The fact that HSU played one less D3 game could end up being a factor. 

[CowboyAlum261]

One thing I didn't consider because I thought it was a mistake ... but HSU has one less game against D3 (6-1 vs 7-1 presently), apparently due to the SRSU D2 transition.  For ranking purposes that game only counts as a secondary criteria to be used if everything else is even.  The fact that HSU played one less D3 game could end up being a factor.

I thought the ASC received a waiver to continue to allow SRSU to count as a D3 opponent? That would be a huge bummer for the decision to be made on that basis, when HSU had no choice whether or not to schedule SRSU.

[Ron Boerger]

One thing I didn't consider because I thought it was a mistake ... but HSU has one less game against D3 (6-1 vs 7-1 presently), apparently due to the SRSU D2 transition.  For ranking purposes that game only counts as a secondary criteria to be used if everything else is even.  The fact that HSU played one less D3 game could end up being a factor.

I thought the ASC received a waiver to continue to allow SRSU to count as a D3 opponent? That would be a huge bummer for the decision to be made on that basis, when HSU had no choice whether or not to schedule SRSU.

Likely someone at the NCAA didn't get the memo, maybe it gets corrected next week (especially if someone from HSU contacts them?)