FB: American Southwest Conference

[minni]

Holy crap can we finish this season before we start talking about returning starters.  Geez my team is fight to stay above .500 this weekend, and get some momentum going into offseason and the team that is going to represent our conference in the playoffs, their fans are talking about the returning starters for next year. <BR>
just for the record being 5-4 and going for 6-4 has been a humbling experience.  I am going to make my first game for the year.  Any HSU fans going to go see the pretty new field at McDirty i mean McMurry? 

[Ralph Turner]

Our good friend dsc reminds us that a rivalry must have a reasonable chance for the second team to beat the first team.

I ask HSU's co-operation in making that possible. 

[Cru15]

Ralph, I'm interested if you had to pick the two teams for the Stagg Bowl right now who'd they be?

[Josh Bowerman]

Holy crap can we finish this season before we start talking about returning starters.  Geez my team is fight to stay above .500 this weekend, and get some momentum going into offseason and the team that is going to represent our conference in the playoffs, their fans are talking about the returning starters for next year. <BR>
just for the record being 5-4 and going for 6-4 has been a humbling experience.  I am going to make my first game for the year.  Any HSU fans going to go see the pretty new field at McDirty i mean McMurry? 

Minni, some of us have already moved on...   

[yessir]

Minni, some of us have already moved on...  

Sorry for addressing his (TL g.o.a.t.) rediculous and disrespectful comments Lord Bowerman. I will now move on.......

I'm interested to see how some of the "All-American" posters think the South Bracket will play out. I was not expecting UMHB to be a 4th seed. I know the NCAA will arrange the games to be played on milk money, but if money was not an issue, how would the bracket be played out. Such as #1 seed Playing #8 and etc.  Also, if Capital makes it into the South bracket, surely the commitee wouldn't want to chance Capital and MUC meeting up in the stagg, right? So UMHB would have to meet MUC in Alliance prior to the Stagg Bowl, correct. Just trying to get my travel plans worked out........

[Josh Bowerman]

It's 'Galactic Overlord', yessir.  Get it right.   

I personally find a lot to question in the picks posted in the Daily Dose.  They assume that SOS isn't going to weigh as heavily into the Pool C discussion as I personal think it will.

[Carl Menist]

It's 'Galactic Overlord', yessir.  Get it right.   

I personally find a lot to question in the picks posted in the Daily Dose.  They assume that SOS isn't going to weigh as heavily into the Pool C discussion as I personal think it will.

Josh - will you take a look at my question over on the playoff post, out at Pat's projection.

I certainly Have a high regard for pat's insight, but I really expected the SOS to be a little more heavily weighted.

I thought that several of the one loss west teams would lose this week-end( duh because they are playing head to head) and that that would be a benifit to 2 loss teams wit pretty good SOSs. based on my spread of the Pool B canidates, Millsaps is number 6 per my assumptions / spreadwith a couple of teams with higher SOS'
s just above them that have fairly tough games this week-end they might lose - Capital, North central / Carthage, Hobart and Hartwick. Hartwick is at 7 just behind Millsaps on my list with a 53.5 OWP versus 54.1 for Millsaps.

Thanks,

Carl

[Pat Coleman]

Hartwick has a win against a regionally ranked team, something Millsaps lacks. All of the criteria have to be looked at.

[jaypeter]

Also, if Capital makes it into the South bracket, surely the commitee wouldn't want to chance Capital and MUC meeting up in the stagg, right? So UMHB would have to meet MUC in Alliance prior to the Stagg Bowl, correct. Just trying to get my travel plans worked out........

hrmmm...that sounds a little familiar.  Take a look back at my last post, yessir.  I think you'll find you and I thinking very similarly. 

You're right, I would think that the NCAA would do all they can to avoid an all-OAC Stagg bowl.  So, if Capital does make it to the playoffs (still not a given right now; they need a little help), they would either be kept in the North bracket and another team would be bumped to a different bracket, or the south and north brackets would be paired to meet in the semis. 

My thought would be that once the four 1 seeds are selected, those teams will be then be seeded.  It's pretty clear that Mount Union and Whitewater will be seeded first and second.  It's only a gut feeling that W&J would be seeded higher than New Jersey, though that is honestly a guess.  So, that seeding would have North vs. East and West vs. South.  But, Once those top teams are paired up, and most of the rest of the brackets are filled out, then the possibility of moving teams to "other brackets" will be considered.  In those parings of the top-seeds, it could lead to a Capital-Mount Union Stagg if Cap were shipped to the South.  It might make more sense to either keep them home in the North or at least ship them to the East.  But if you do that, who do you bump from the East?  Wouldn't it just be easier to bump one team (Capital to the South) instead of bumping two teams (Cap to the east and an east to the south)?

Oy, I think my head is beginning to rotate a bit.  I need to be careful trying to follow all the rabbit trails with a long day of school behind me and a bad cold to boot!

jaypeter

[Josh Bowerman]

To evaluate all the teams eligible for Pool C consideration, my opinion is that the main selection criteria can be anything but the SOS.  It's there to provide a (for better or worse) reasonably unbiased measurement of a team's total body of work.

I can't see a Captial team, for example, getting a Pool C nod over a Wittenberg team that is about 60 spots higher than Capital in the SOS rankings--even though Capital beat Witt head-to-head.  Witt has an overall better body of work--they're better than Capital in 3 of the 5 primary criteria (one of the 5--results against common opponents--won't be applicable), and several of the secondary criteria--at least the way I read them.

All of this is not to say Capital won't get in, I just don' t think they get in at Wittenberg's expense.

[Pat Coleman]

It seems silly for the NCAA to rank Capital ahead of Wittenberg then.

[Pat Coleman]

Also, please keep in mind that by Selection Sunday, Capital will have played 6-4 Baldwin-Wallace and Wittenberg will have played 0-10 Hiram.

And remember to look at the OOWP to determine how Capital's and Wittenberg's opponents each got to those records.

[Josh Bowerman]

It seems silly for the NCAA to rank Capital ahead of Wittenberg then.

Lots of things the NCAA does are silly, Pat.   Need I go on....   

[Pat Coleman]

Well, no offense, but when the NCAA ranks teams based on the same criteria it will use to select teams later, we should pay attention to them ...

[Josh Bowerman]

No offense taken.

I agree that the regional rankings are important from a regional standpoint--which in my mind, primarily goes to seeding. 

There's no way to judge one regions relative merits against another, though, without the SOS.  That's why, IMO, the SOS has to be the most important criteria when selecting Pool C teams.  Pool C being the seven best non AQ/Pool B teams in the country--regardless of where they may fall geographically. 

Even though they've made some bird-brained decisions regarding travel in the past, the AA has always (at least in my opinion) made a real strong effort to get the seven best at-large teams in the field and THEN made the geography thing work as best it can.

That's why I think Witt and Montclair have as good or better shots at getting in than Hobart, for one, and possibly Capital and Whitworth.  Witt's OOWP is only .013 worse than Capital's, for example, but their OWP is close to .100 higher.  Montclair has higher scores than Capital in both criteria, though their OWP is not as much higher than Capital's as Witt's.