FB: American Southwest Conference

[CRU96]

CUAfan,

I always appreciate people stepping out like you did, but I'll be surprised if the games come out like that.  I think HSU will score at least 30.  The offense is potent and MC hasn't been a defensive stalwart this season.  I think UMHB will put big numbers up on McM, and I think the ETBU number will be higher if TLU doesn't fix some of what I watched last week.

Toby,

I agree especially with the ETBU number.  I know Coach Sartain personally and his record is proven. He has won a National Championship at Trinity Valley Junior College in Athens, Texas prior to coming to ETBU. They seem to be improving every game this year.  Coach Sartain provides the ASC with another quality Coach and for ETBU they should only improve in the years to come.  (By the way I just figured out the quote thing, I always wondered how you guys did this before!) 

[etbualum]

ETBU vs TLU Game notes
http://www.etbu.edu/opencms/handle404?exporturi=/export/sites/default/Current_Athletic_News/Football/Game_Notes/vs._Texas_Lutheran_08.pdf

ETBU SID Blog on TLU-ETBU series
http://etbutigerroar.blogspot.com/

[CUAfan]

Hardin-Simmons 27, Mississippi College 25 in 12 possessions
Sul Ross State 20, Howard Payne 19 in 13 possessions
Mary Hardin-Baylor 43, McMurry 10 in 11 possessions
East Texas Baptist 35, Texas Lutheran 19 in 12 possessions

Just realized something...that should be "possessions each", not just possessions.

[yessir]

Great game today Cru...Taking care of business one week at a time. GO CRU!!!

[Bill McCabe]

It looks like UMHB-HSU will come down to which defense plays the best.  Seems like I say that every year.  If HSU has gotten faster on defense this year, then I think the game will be close and decided by turnovers.  I know UMHB will be fast.

[Ron Boerger]

HSU had a hard time stopping the MC run game yesterday (based on observing the game via live stats).   Not good news for Cowboy fans when you consider running has hardly been a MC strength over the years and what UMHB has done with the run during that time. 

Josh, I've got inlaws coming to town next weekend so won't see you (or anyone else!) in Belton next week.    Hope it's a good one ...

[CUAfan]

Hardin-Simmons 27, Mississippi College 25 in 12 possessions each
Sul Ross State 20, Howard Payne 19 in 13 possessions each
Mary Hardin-Baylor 43, McMurry 10 in 11 possessions each
East Texas Baptist 35, Texas Lutheran 19 in 12 possessions each

Now to see how close I got.....

Hardin-Simmons 34, Mississippi College 27 in 24 total possessions (9 points off overall)
Sul Ross State 17, Howard Payne 0 in 30 total possessions (22 points off)
UMHB 46, McMurry 0 in 27 total possessions (13 points off)
ETBU 26, Texas Lutheran 14 in 25 total possessions (14 points off)

Not too bad, I think, considering it was going off of 2/3 games worth of stats.

[Ralph Turner]

Hardin-Simmons 27, Mississippi College 25 in 12 possessions each
Sul Ross State 20, Howard Payne 19 in 13 possessions each
Mary Hardin-Baylor 43, McMurry 10 in 11 possessions each
East Texas Baptist 35, Texas Lutheran 19 in 12 possessions each

Now to see how close I got.....

Hardin-Simmons 34, Mississippi College 27 in 24 total possessions (9 points off overall)
Sul Ross State 17, Howard Payne 0 in 30 total possessions (22 points off)
UMHB 46, McMurry 0 in 27 total possessions (13 points off)
ETBU 26, Texas Lutheran 14 in 25 total possessions (14 points off)

Not too bad, I think, considering it was going off of 2/3 games worth of stats.

Good work, CUAfan.

Keep it coming!  I really enjoyed this analysis.    +1

[justski]

I just wanted to give a shout out to the McMurry fans!
i was impressed a whole lot by your sportsmanship yesterday.
very nice to the visiting crusaders. Also never giving up
on your team. I was hearing defense chants in the 4th quarter!
thats something to respect : )


GO CRU!!!

[CUAfan]

Here's how I'd rank the ASC teams after this week's games, going by Game Efficiency (essentially this without quality of opponent adjustments).

1. Mary Hardin-Baylor, .465
2. Hardin-Simmons, .077
3. East Texas Baptist, .064
4. Sul Ross State, .030
5. Louisiana College, -.016
6. Howard Payne, -.041
7. Mississippi College, -.067
8. Texas Lutheran, -.256
9. McMurry, -.311

[Josh Bowerman]

I don't understand your methodology, CUAfan.  Could you please explain?

[yessir]

I don't understand your methodology, CUAfan.  Could you please explain?

Glad i'm not the only one....Was gonna ask the same question!

[baddog]

What we have here is a failure to communicate! --
the Warden in "Cool Hand Luke"(Tribute to Paul Newman  )

[Ron Boerger]

Congratulations to this week's ASC Players of the Week!

OFFENSIVE
Desmond Mays, RB, Jr., Mississippi College
Mississippi College junior running back Desmond Mays (Normangee, TX / NHS) rushed for 189 yards - the most in the ASC this season - on 30 carries and scored four touchdowns in a loss to Hardin-Simmons. He also caught three passes for 21 yards to account for 210 yards of offense, which is the second-highest total in the league this year. Mays' four scores tie him for the league high.

DEFENSIVE
Johnnie Williams, CB, Jr., Sul Ross State
Sul Ross State junior cornerback Johnnie Williams (Hempstead, TX / HHS) made seven tackles - six solo, two for loss - and had an interception that set up a Lobo's touchdown in a 17-0 win over Howard Payne. Williams also had a pass break-up in SRSU's first shutout since the 1997 season.

SPECIAL TEAMS
Alan Munoz, PK, So., Mary Hardin-Baylor
Mary Hardin-Baylor sophomore kicker Alan Munoz (Red Oak, TX / Ferris HS) nailed a 48-yard field goal - the longest in the ASC this season - and notched five extra-points in the Cru?s 46-0 road win over McMurry. He also averaged 57.9 yards on kickoffs.

[CUAfan]

I don't understand your methodology, CUAfan.  Could you please explain?

Game Efficiency is calculated as follows: [(PF-PA)/7]/[possessions in the game/2]. Basically, it quantifies the success rate of a team scoring while in possession of the ball and preventing scores while not in possession of the ball over the course of a game. In other words, it measures how good your offense and defense are while accounting for the number of opportunities you have to score or give up points. For example, it can differentiate between a 17-13 game of 10 possessions apiece and a 17-13 overtime game with 20 possessions apiece. It can be used for particular games or for a team over the course of a season. What I posted is each team's Game Efficiency for the season so far (maybe Season Efficiency would have been a better term).

The guy who developed it also uses opponent adjustments to account for strength of the opposition, but I've never seen anyone post publicly just how they go about that kind of thing.

Hope that helps...if it's still not clear say so and I'll try again.