FB: American Southwest Conference

[hsucowboyfan]

yessir good posts but man.....A LOT of excuses for umhb. Can it not be that hsu gave them a good game??? Its got to be injuries (which the injuries they got were during the game because the cowboys were taking them out of it), or not opening the playbook, or game plan, or whatever excuse. If you watched the game, the reason the qb didn't pitch the ball is because his running back was covered up. That was hsu's defensive game plan to limit the big play by making the qb keep the ball. Wasn't the biggest run play by umhb like 14 yrds or something??? Thats not poor play for umhb thats what they had to do because the hsu D forced him to keep the ball. and yes umhb's game plan was to keep hsu offense off the field by controlling the ball....which means they are going to run the ball. I think HSU has played a very tough 6 games.....with that being said i think hsu's defense is playing very well, obviously they need to improve each week. remember they have 2 new coordinators and a whole new scheme. It takes time to get that down, look at the #'s they are improving significantly each week, and will improve with time. The offense i believe after watching the last game is starting to hit on all levels, running game def. improved, especially against a etbu team that WAS only averaging 60 rushing yards a game...hsu put i think 175 on them. Both umhb and hsu are very good teams this year...give hsu credit. They have improved significantly this year and played umhb very well. umhb didn't just not play well that day, hsu just played good. and pat when i was talking about linfield getting into the top 25 i was using that to show how that can help us out.....especially if they keep winning. Kinda referring to strength of schedule.

[Bill McCabe]

How about the theory that HSU has played tough opponents and has confronted "adversity".

Facing in the second round is probably reasonable.   That would mean that HSU  and UMHB are two of the four best teams in the South Region, if they can get past the first round opponents.

Okay, how about this question to the Cowboy fans?

UMHB Pool A
Millsaps Pool A SCAC
Huntingdon Pool B
Trinity Pool C SCAC
HSU Pool C

Huntingdon can be bussed to Millsaps.  Trinity to UMHB.

HSU fans, would you like to be shipped out of region or back to VA, MD or PA to get out of the UMHB Millsaps bracket?

Ralph,  how likely is that scenario?  Will distance trump everything as has been the case the past few years.  If Trinity is not in, I wouldn't be surprised to see a rematch in Belton in the first round.   

[cowboyfan]

If UMHB played mediocre and still beat HSU that doesn't bode very well for HSU.  I think more credit should be given to HSU.  They played a good game against a good team. 

thanks bill. seems like no matter what happens this year UMHB is going to win a national championship according to yessir. However i think part of umhb's mediocre play was due to HSU defense. UMHB has always blown people out thats their style. Hang 40 points on someone like a sul ross state then say HA HA HA look at me. I do however remember those days for HSU. I can tell you this though HSU should be in the easier part of the schedule which worries me. I'd rather see them go into a playoff game after a win or loss to a good team. On the other hand if HSU can make it through the season then the only outcome i can see is a first round with trinity or maybe millsap. I think HSU blew their shot at a pool C bid several years ago. I'd really like to see HSU and UMHB hook back up in the second round but HSU has alot of winning to do before then. I do think that HSU has had a tough schedule yessir and tougher than UMHB but i don't expect that is something we will ever see eye to eye on. What happened to the ETBU young gun this weekend. Did the wheels fall off or what? 5 picks and an afternoon of very sloppy play it wasn't pretty for ETBU.

[Bill McCabe]

cowboyfan,

I agree the HSU defense was much better than I anticipated.  That had something to do with the play of UMHB.  The Cru had several chances to break the game open and HSU hung right with them and then had a chance at the end of the game.  Should be another great game if they get to play again.  They both have to take care of business first.

[Ralph Turner]

Ralph,  how likely is that scenario?  Will distance trump everything as has been the case the past few years.  If Trinity is not in, I wouldn't be surprised to see a rematch in Belton in the first round.   

Right now, I think that Trinity is the "weakest link" in Pool C.  McMurry and TLU are not helping them, altho' it may be the case that McM/AC going to overtime means that McM is the equivalent to a mid-rung SCAC team.

Huntingdon (or Huntingdon/LaGrange) must win out in conference play.  Huntingdon has a game with Hampden-Sydney which may boost their strength of scheudule.

Trinity's winning the SCAC probably gets them a home game.

[hsufollower]

in my personaly opinion looking at all of yalls posts. I see you consistently talking about UMHB and HSU in the second round. Really Id put my yearly savings that it would be UMHB HSU in the First round just due to distance.

My predictions saying everyone wins out is HSU at UMHB while TRINITY travels to MILLSAPS while Huntington or whoever travels off east to face an equal pool b bid team! The fact that Abilene and Belton are soo close is to hard for the NCAA to turn down for obvious financial reasons!

[Ron Boerger]

As twisted as the AA is they try to avoid first round conference rematches.  Much more logical to send Millsaps to UMHB and pair up Trinity and HSU, should all four qualify.  Not a plane trip there. 

[Bill McCabe]

Ron, do you think that happens if Millsaps and UMHB are both conference champions?
Whatever, I bet in a few weeks we are all cussin the NCAA again. 

Could they be the #1 and #2 seeds in the south region?

[Ralph Turner]

I think that they might be, unless Muhlenberg runs the table.

We are too isolated down here to get our OWP and OOWP too far above .500

[CUAfan]

Agreed, my numbers don't account for SOS, mainly because I don't feel like trying to get the data from all the opponents...and their opponents...and their opponents...you get the picture. However, in a general sense, I think it tends to at least get teams in the right order. Here's another way of thinking about the situation. What follows are the conference rankings for points scored and allowed per possession.

Points For
1. Mary Hardin-Baylor, 3.2
2. Hardin-Simmons, 2.7
3. Mississippi College, 1.8
4. East Texas Baptist, 1.7
5. Texas Lutheran, 1.5
6. Sul Ross State, 1.5
7. Howard Payne, 1.4
8. Louisiana College, 1.1
9. McMurry, 0.9

Points Allowed
1. Mary Hardin-Baylor, 0.8
2. East Texas Baptist, 1.5
3. Sul Ross State, 1.5
4. Howard Payne, 1.5
5. Louisiana College, 1.5
6. Hardin-Simmons, 1.8
7. Mississippi College, 2.2
8. Texas Lutheran, 2.4
9. McMurry, 3.0

Notice how far off UMHB (and McMurry) are from average. It's not beyond reason to think that UMHB will be unable to maintain their current offense/defense rates for the rest of the year, thus coming back to the pack. Given that I have no point of reference (though I suppose I could dig back into past statistics on the ASC website), I don't know how likely it is for them to regress, but the possibility is there.

And, frankly, straight win-loss records don't give enough information to decide whose schedule has been tougher.

[minni]

HSU has alot of work to do before they can make a run deep into the playoffs. Particulary on defense.

Luckily for HSU this is a 10 game regular season and a road for improvement.  As long as you get better wach week and improve from week to week and keep winning i dont guess all those numbers matter.  The only stat that really matter is what the two teams have scored when the clocks reach zero.

[Toby Taff]

	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Avg Pts for	41.45	41.9	47.07	44.64	32.54	52.43
Avg Pts against	15.45	11.3	22.47	13.36	15.54	16.21

CUAfan- these are the scoring averages since 2002 for UMHB.  You might notice that historically, UMHB has been able to sustain the pace offensively and defensively through the regular season.  unless the injuries keep piling up, I wouldn't anticipate them coming back to the pack.

[@d3jason]

UMHB Pool A
Millsaps Pool A SCAC
Huntingdon Pool B
Trinity Pool C SCAC
HSU Pool C

South Region is looking crowded this year.

Add
W& J Pool A PAC
Hampden-Sydney Pool A ODAC
Muhlenberg Pool A Cenntennial
Christopher Newport/Ferrum winner Pool A USAC
Wesley/Salisbury winner Pool B


That's 10 teams!!
Could a 9-1 Trinity/Millsaps or HSU be left out of a Pool C depending on what happens around the other regions?

Somebody has to move maybe a couple of teams, but who?

Both interesting things to consider.

[yessir]

I've never said UMHB would win a National Championship....I just stated that they have a good chance of making it to the game. Which with their history and current play isn't that far out....Yeah HSU played well against the Cru....but I still don't believe that UMHB was 100% that day. Not like i've seen them in other games this year....running the option 40+ times in uncharacteristic of even UMHB. Maybe they were just taking what HSU was giving them...IDK. It was a "W" and i'll take it.

What really sucks is that only one ASC team is gonna make it past the 2nd round, if not the first due to the circumstances.

CUAfan.....UMHB is historically known for putting up big number late in the season....there's ussually a few 70+ games for UMHB late in the season. My experience as a player at UMHB, we strived to get better each week. I so I think there's alot to look forward to as the season goes on. It would be good to see Quincy come back...but I sure hope he makes sure he is healthy before he does. Playing injured ussually just makes the injury worse.

[Toby Taff]

Coach Fred gave am update on the injury situation in his weekly press conference.  UMHB is down to 2 sophomore running backs, one of which was a LB until last Tuesday and the other does not have "breakaway speed."  New to the injury list this week are Brett Parker, DB, with a shoulder injury and Billy Abreu, 4th string RB with a fractured clavicle.  I guess we'll find out how deep this team really is.  Here's the article link:

http://www.tdtnews.com/story/2008/10/14/52979