FB: American Southwest Conference

[HSC85]

Conrad,

My team plays in the ODAC.  However, I like to read the other boards.  I agree with you that the South Region is looking very crowded at this point.  That is why the AQ is like gold.  I hope that the South Region gets to be represented by all of the good teams and is not penalized by travel costs or other factors that are not determined on the field.  It would be a real shame if Trinity/MIllsaps  or HSU were left out at 9-1.  What would really scramble things is if some of the conference leaders stumble and there are more 9-1 teams competing for so few at large spots.

[Bill McCabe]

	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Avg Pts for	41.45	41.9	47.07	44.64	32.54	52.43
Avg Pts against	15.45	11.3	22.47	13.36	15.54	16.21

CUAfan- these are the scoring averages since 2002 for UMHB.  You might notice that historically, UMHB has been able to sustain the pace offensively and defensively through the regular season.  unless the injuries keep piling up, I wouldn't anticipate them coming back to the pack.

mhb8904,  I believe the most important number is defense.  As long as UMHB plays good defense, they are going to be a factor.

[Toby Taff]

mhb8904,  I believe the most important number is defense.  As long as UMHB plays good defense, they are going to be a factor.

I agree Bill, but i am concerned about the growing IR list.  The Brett Parker injury hurts.

[Bill McCabe]

mhb8904,  UMHB is one of the teams that has good depth and can handle some injuries.  You're right though, they can't have many more, especially at the skill positions.

[CUAfan]

CUAfan- these are the scoring averages since 2002 for UMHB.  You might notice that historically, UMHB has been able to sustain the pace offensively and defensively through the regular season.  unless the injuries keep piling up, I wouldn't anticipate them coming back to the pack.

Looks like it. The one thing I would point out is that I was talking about points per possession, not points per game, and without going back and figuring out how many possessions they had in those years (which I could do, but am not interested enough to do right now), it's hard to say for sure one way or the other. That said, I'd wager they'll keep it up...I'm just hedging my bets.

mhb8904,  I believe the most important number is defense.  As long as UMHB plays good defense, they are going to be a factor.

Actually, the most important number is scoring margin. You can afford to give up 30 a game if you score 50 every time out.

[Josh Bowerman]

Josh Bowerman, How bad was the etbu qb play?

I didn't think it was good, but he was also running for his life much of the game.  That in, and of itself, accounted for some of his forced passes.

With regard to HSU's play this season...

After being on the sidelines for each of the last two weeks, I can tell you there was a palpable difference in the confidence level of the team between the ETBU game and the UMHB game.  In the UMHB game, you could actually see the team gaining confidence, even in the loss.  I think those guys really felt like they gave one away.

That's not to take anything away from UMHB, because I thought they executed well, and made the plays they had to make in order to win.  But the team I saw this past Saturday play ETBU reminded me a lot of teams that have been very successful.  I'm really looking forward to the rest of the season, and hope that we can get a Pool C bid.  As well as the guys are playing right now, I say bring on whomever from the South Region...I like their chances.

On a totally different note, does anyone have an injury update on HSU RB Josh Stephens?  He took a wicked shot on Saturday, and ended up having to visit the hospital.  Here's hoping he's going to be OK and back on the field this season...

[Josh Bowerman]

Conrad, et. al.--

FWIW, I'm pretty sure there are only two Pool B bids out there this year. 

Either Salisbury and/or Wesley will almost assuredly be out of the running for a Pool B, depending on who wins their upcoming game (two losses with one in conference).  Both already have a DIII loss to a common opponent, which might or might not help the last one standing with SOS related to Pool C consideration.  At this point, I don't think either team gets in via Pool B.

Huntingdon looks good for a Pool B, as does Case Western at this point in time--assuming of course that they both win out.

[Pat Coleman]

On the podcast this week we revealed that the NCAA has been advised of its error in math and is expected to add a Pool B bid.

[Josh Bowerman]

Too bad they didn't take heed of the many, many people that pointed out the error in playoff mileage calculation a couple of years ago...

My bad, though--been real busy at work and haven't had a chance to catch the podcast yet.   

As a HSU fan, though, it IS encouraging to see that the Cowboys are currently considered the best one-loss team based upon the current iteration of the SOS calculations the AA uses.  I know that will change a bit over time, but it's at least encouraging for now!

[Pat Coleman]

Too bad they didn't take heed of the many, many people that pointed out the error in playoff mileage calculation a couple of years ago...

It was pretty much too late to do that at the time but I suspect they may now know that UMHB and Millsaps are 499 miles apart.

[crufootball]

Congrats to Ralph Turner for getting mentioned in the podcast and daily dose for his help in getting the playoff situation figured out.

Glad to see the NCAA on top of things like they are normally are 

[Bill McCabe]

When do the regional rankings come out?  If Millsaps and UMHB were seeded #1 and #2, would we see them play in the first round?  Or would there be an HSU-UMHB game and a Trinity-Millsaps, assuming Trinity were to get a bid at 9-1?

If Trinity were to be the automatic qualifier, I could see HSU at Trinity and Millsaps at UMHB. 

All of this assumes that no one stumbles.   

[Ron Boerger]

When do the regional rankings come out?  If Millsaps and UMHB were seeded #1 and #2, would we see them play in the first round?  Or would there be an HSU-UMHB game and a Trinity-Millsaps, assuming Trinity were to get a bid at 9-1?

If Trinity were to be the automatic qualifier, I could see HSU at Trinity and Millsaps at UMHB. 

All of this assumes that no one stumbles.   

HSU-Millsaps would be a plane flight.  In the past the AA has done whatever necessary to avoid flights (like match up Trinity and UMHB in the first round when both were top 5 teams and 1-2 seeds, 2002 I think).  If it saves them a flight UMHB-Millsaps and HSU-Trinity might be what they do - $$ normally trump fairness. 

It might come down to where the other teams in the bracket are.  Maybe they could bus the SLIAC winner to Millsaps (no idea, just thinking out loud), fly someone else to HSU and poor Trinity would end up at UMHB again.   

[Bill McCabe]

Ron, I'm afraid it will be HSU at UMHB.

[Ralph Turner]

On the front page is a link to a great article about Juan Joseph!