FB: American Southwest Conference

[Bill McCabe]

Hey Ron, just a thought, but are 1st round flights less expensive than 2nd round?      I wonder if the AA ever considers that?

[Ron Boerger]

Ron, I'm afraid it will be HSU at UMHB.

Trinity-Millsaps is also a flight.  The AA would not both pay for an extra flight AND rematch conference opponents in the first round.

[Ralph Turner]

Ron, I'm afraid it will be HSU at UMHB.

Trinity-Millsaps is also a flight.  The AA would not both pay for an extra flight AND rematch conference opponents in the first round.

Which is why I propose this bracket...

8 ) USA South Pool A
1)  Muhlenberg (by 10-0 and OOWP Pool A)

5) HSU  (Pool C bid 9-1/8-1 in-region)
4) W&J (Undefeated 10-0/9-0 in region  Pool A)


6) Trinity (Pool C  9-1/8-1 in-region)
3) UMHB (Undefeated 10-0/8-0 in region)

7) Huntingdon (Pool B  10-0/9-0)  Easy four hour Bus ride to Jackson (or even from LaGrange)
2) Millsaps (10-0/9-0 In-region  Pool A Bid SCAC)

Ship Wesley/Salisbury winner (and Pool B) and ODAC winner East.

(I also wonder if a #1 seed Muhlenberg at 10-0/10-0 might not be shipped to the "East Region" if it were the best team on the table from that part of the country.  That would shift the brackets and the ODAC or Salisbury/Wesley winner would stay in the South.)

[Josh Bowerman]

Just don't see it breaking that way, Ralph.

Here's my best guess:

(4) Washington & Jefferson at (2) Muhlenberg
(8 ) USAC Rep at (7) ODAC Rep

(6) Trinity at (5) Hardin-Simmons (based on SOS)
(3) Millsaps at (1) Mary Hardin-Baylor (based on potential travel in second round)

Millsaps and UMHB will have to play each other in the first round, because they're the only combination of SCAC/ASC teams that avoids the flight.  HSU and Trinity would also play, with the winners of the two games squaring off.  My guess is that, in this scenario, UMHB hosts Millsaps because if they win, the "sub-bracket" (read no flights until the regional finals) remains intact.

In the opposite side of the bracket, there's more flexibility, but I'd guess that the USAC rep and the ODAC rep would play, and that Muhlenberg and W&J would be paired.  Any combination of those four teams, or the ACFC rep avoids a flight until the regional final, though.

Speaking of which, the ACFC Pool B rep could be easily substituted for either PA team in the South Region, especially if the committee is looking for a stronger #1 seed in the East.  My guess if one gets shipped out, it would likely be Muhlenberg, as they'd have the stronger resume to justify bringing in a team from another region as the one seed. 

If Huntingdon gets in via Pool B, they pose a major travel problem because the only realistic playoff team they could play without a flight is Millsaps.  I'd say they'd be in line to also get shipped out of region, because they have to fly anywhere (except Millsaps) anyway.  My guess is that they get bumped to the North Region, probably to play at the HCAC or NCAC winner--but at Mt. Union or Case Western might also be a possiblility.

Based on historical performance, the committee seems to have no problem with the fact that the seeds and pairings won't match up in the South Region.  I'm not sure that this year would be any different.

[Toby Taff]

Josh,

I think you're probably right, but we can hold out hope for sanity, even if it is a false hope.

[used2b]

Hello all.
I have an interesting scenario that someone once told me. Let me know if it is even possible.
When etbu won and made the ployoffs at 8-2 in 2003, they were told by Lycoming that the NCAA considered letting etbu be the #1 south seed that year, b/c no one else had a better record or strength of scheldule (etbu was beaten 34-21 by a top 25 d2 school and HSU) Lycoming was 8-1 i think, but not such a strong scheldule. Since D2 loss didnt count etbu was really 8-1 for power ranking purposes. The reason the NCAA did not allow etbu to be the # 1 seed was b/c of the travel everyone else would have to go through to go through Texas (fly to texas) to get out of the south region. What I am speaking of is the potential cost involved for everyone else was the deciding factor. All of the other teams selected for the playoffs that year were from PA, Va, etc. Only etbu and Trinity were from Texas, and having 1 of them travel north would be less expensive than having 3 or 4 teams fly to texas to play.
-Any merit to the legitimacy to this idea? and would it potentially have any bearing this year?

[cowboyfan]

used2b,

it certainly appears and has been my experience that travel is a huge factor in the AA decision as to who goes where or gets what seed during the playoffs. However this year there could potentially be several teams in our immediate area bound for the playoffs. Sounds like and if i remember correctly ETBU was one of only a couple teams in this area that year in the playoffs. I do remember several years ago when Washington, Washington and Jefferson, and St Johns all flew to texas to play in abilene. I think some of what the NCAA tries to do is narrow the field in week one with as little travel (flight travel) as possible, because i think its inevitable that some teams at some point in the playoffs will have to fly. This has always been frustrating to me. Seems like every year only one team out of texas is playing in the second round. I think we have had teams good enough to play two or three rounds deep but only one team can win.  should be interesting to see how it works out this year. At this point at least it appears the NCAA has more options than just HSU vs UMHB or Trinity round one. Should make for an interesting playoff time. But we still have a lot of football before then. Hope everyone stays healthy and keeps playing well.

[CRU96]

I know that my dreams are lofty, but wouldn't it be nice to see three Texas teams in the second or third round?  It seems that in recent years the tough road to the South region goes through Texas, and some great teams stay home.  (I know UMHB played at Wesely and Wisconsi-White Water in recent years, but there were still some good Texas teams at home)  I can still dream though can't I?    I am dreaming of a South Region Championship between two Texas teams.  (UMHB vs. HSU or Trinity vs. UMHB or HSU vs. Trinity) I know that it is not logical, but that's a great dream! 

[Ralph Turner]

Hello all.
I have an interesting scenario that someone once told me. Let me know if it is even possible.
When etbu won and made the ployoffs at 8-2 in 2003, they were told by Lycoming that the NCAA considered letting etbu be the #1 south seed that year, b/c no one else had a better record or strength of scheldule (etbu was beaten 34-21 by a top 25 d2 school and HSU) Lycoming was 8-1 i think, but not such a strong scheldule. Since D2 loss didnt count etbu was really 8-1 for power ranking purposes. The reason the NCAA did not allow etbu to be the # 1 seed was b/c of the travel everyone else would have to go through to go through Texas (fly to texas) to get out of the south region. What I am speaking of is the potential cost involved for everyone else was the deciding factor. All of the other teams selected for the playoffs that year were from PA, Va, etc. Only etbu and Trinity were from Texas, and having 1 of them travel north would be less expensive than having 3 or 4 teams fly to texas to play.
-Any merit to the legitimacy to this idea? and would it potentially have any bearing this year?

Lycoming was 9-1 in-region in 2003. 

That might be enough to award them the #1 seed over ETBU at 8-1 (South Region).  ETBU got to host a first round game.  We Texas fans would have liked to have had at least 2 games, but that is the way it is in the Texas Sub-bracket.

Texas Sub-bracket!

Bridgewater was 9-1 in region , the loss coming to CNU which Bridgewater beat in the second round of the playoffs.  I think they were the #3 seed.

I think that the #2 seed in the South Region Bracket was CNU which was 8-1 in-region and the only other loss was to Rowan, a non-region game.

Playoffs 2003

[Josh Bowerman]

used2b--

The seedings are done completely seperate from the travel pairings.  In the North and the East Regions, the seeds can pretty much hold for both bracketing and travel purposes.  However, in the South, and to a lesser extent the West Regions, travel pairings always trump the seedings.  The committee has been pretty clear about this in the past.  This admittedly makes little sense--why have seeds if you're not going to pair them up accordingly?  Alas, we're not dealing with a group that always makes sense, we're dealing with the AA.

It's nothing more sinister than the almighty $ at work.  It doesn't make it right, but that's unfortunately the way it is.  At least with a 32 team field, pretty much everybody that deserves to get in gets in.  They may not get to play an opponent according to their rank or strength, but at least they get in.  

With economic conditions in this country being what they currently are, I'm sure the AA will be even more conscious of costs this year than in the past.  

As an additonal note to my earlier post, I'd think that if Muhlenberg gets shipped to the East Region, then Washington & Jefferson would most likely get to host a first round game.  They may get to anyway, depending on how the committee brackets that half of the South Region draw, but I don't see Wesley or Salisbury getting to host over the Presidents if W&J is undefeated.

[HSC85]

If you go by proximity then the ODAC and the USA South Champions would be closest in this part of the Region.  However last year the USAS Champion, NC Wesleyan, played at Washington and Jefferson and the ODAC Champion played at Wesley.  This year there may be 5 or 6 ( if Huntingdon or Lagrange would be so and get a Pool B bid) undeafed conference champions in the South Region that will make it hard for a one loss team to earn the right to host a game.  But I am not as familiar with the selection and pairing process as most of you are.  As I am finging out very strange things happen when pairing teams in the South Region.

[Josh Bowerman]

It's all about driving distance.  If teams are within 500 miles of one another, they drive.  If more, they fly.  Flying is way more expensive for the AA to pay for, so they really, really try to limit flights as much as possible. 

If an undefeated Muhlenberg gets shipped out of region, then I'd think the northern draw of the South Region would probably have a presumably undefeated Washington & Jefferson hosting either the ACFC rep or the USAC rep, and a presumably undefeated Hampden-Sydney host the other.

It's all admittedly speculation at this point--we still have five weeks of season left, and a whole lot can and will happen in that time period.

[justski]

Hey guys is it wrong to say that its about time for UMHB to get
a number 1 seed in the south region? If they remain undefeated?

[Ralph Turner]

Hey guys is it wrong to say that its about time for UMHB to get
a number 1 seed in the south region? If they remain undefeated?

They may not get the number one seed because they may only have an 8-0 record in South Region Games and their OWP/OOWP is likely to be near .500.

[CUAfan]

Well, I just did another quick project. This time, the idea was to see which program had been the best over the last 5 years (2003-2007). I used the Game Efficiency stat I've posted about before, but used everyone's 5-year totals for all the inputs. Here are the results.

1. Mary Hardin-Baylor
5-Year GE: .259
High: .310, 2007
Low: .199, 2006

2. Hardin-Simmons
5-Year GE: .173
High: .332, 2004
Low: -.020, 2007

3. Howard Payne
5-Year GE: .015
High: .133, 2003
Low: -.100, 2007

4. East Texas Baptist
5-Year GE: -.025
High: .142, 2003
Low: -.127, 2006

5. Texas Lutheran
5-Year GE: -.043
High: .046, 2004
Low: -.161, 2003

6. Louisiana College
5-Year GE: -.044
High: .001, 2006
Low: -.111, 2003

7. Mississippi College
5-Year GE: -.046
High: .138, 2007
Low: -.218, 2004

8. McMurry
5-Year GE: -.095
High: -.052, 2005
Low: -.138, 2007

9. Sul Ross State
5-Year GE: -.113
High: -.011, 2007
Low: -.238, 2003