Pool B

[wally_wabash]

Past championship performance can be used to help a committee seed undefeated qualifiers for the current championship. Ergo, Wesley's previous tournament record can't help them get in nor can it help them secure preferential seeding. Got to win them all to get that perk.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Just updating the the chart from last week with the teams added.   Will make a bigger deal of them once Regional Rankings get into the mix.

SOS, Team, Full D3 Record, Wins, D3 Games remaining

1 Wesley 4-2  (Widener, Huntingdon, Birm-Southern, Salisbury) - NO FULL D3 GAMES LEFT
23  WashU 5-2 (Rhodes, Centre, Berry, Hendrix, CarnMellon) - CWR, Chicago
45 FraminghamSt 6-1 (Endicott, FitchSt, WCSU, Mass-Dart, WFieldSt, PlymSt) - MassMar, BWaterSt, WorcState
58 Centre 5-2 (Bethany, Rose-Hulman, WashLee, WashU, Berry) -Hendrix, Millsaps, BirmSth
85 Millsaps 6-0 (MissColl, LaGrange, Sewanee, Hentrix, Trinity, BirmSth) - Berry, Centre, Rhodes
100 Rhodes 6-1 (Austin, Clar-Mudd, Berry, Chicago, Sewanee, Centre) - BSC, Hendrix, Millsaps
152 Chicago 5-2 (Beloit, ConcChicago, Elmhurst, Kalamazoo, Maclester) - CWE, CarnMell, WashU
215 Tex Lutheran 6-0 (SWestern, Trinity, ETBU, Austin, SulRoss, MissColl) - LaColl, Hard-Simm, HPayne

seems to me that it will come down to 5 teams for 3 spots

1 from the Millsaps, Rhodes, Centre group
1 from Wash U or Chicago
Framingham St.
Tex Luth
Wesley

Agreed.  This is going to get interesting.  Here's the "hierarchy" to me:

1) If Millsaps goes undefeated, they're in.  If Rhodes knocks off Millsaps, and they both finish 9-1, then I'd bet on Rhodes getting in.  I think we can cross Centre off now after their loss to Rhodes unless there are a couple unexpected losses by the top teams.  Even if they were to beat Millsaps, they're now behind the 8-ball with a best possible record of 8-2 and losses to both Rhodes and WashU.

2) If TLU goes undefeated, they're in.  They'll never put in teams with two losses and leave an undefeated Pool B team out (and I agree with that).  A 1-loss TLU has to be very nervous, though, because they won't come with the H2H wins against fellow contenders that Millsaps/Rhodes winner and WashU/Chicago winner will own.

3) 8-2 WashU has a strong case to get in because of H2H wins against Rhodes and Centre.  An 8-2 Chicago is a little weaker candidate, IMO, and I think they'll come up short if they're on the board with undefeated Millsaps or 1-loss Rhodes, undefeated or 1-loss Texas Lutheran, and 1-loss Framingham State.  I can't see them getting the nod over any of those three.  I could see 8-2 WashU getting that nod because they have H2H wins over Rhodes, Centre (who could do them a big, big favor by beating Millsaps and maybe sneaking into a set of regional rankings), and in this scenario, Chicago.

4) 9-1 Framingham State vs. 8-2 WashU will be a very interesting debate if it happens.  WashU got hurt by Coe losing their second straight game last week - one of the possible arrows in WashU's quiver was the possibility that they'd be 8-2 with close, competitive losses against a pair of Top-25, Pool-A teams.  Coe is now out of that picture.  That hurts WashU and somewhat offsets the "good loss" characteristic they'd picked up from playing Whitewater so tough.

Wild Card) Wesley is such an odd duck because they have terrific history, a record of success, a couple of really good wins this year...Widener might win the MAC, Salisbury might win the Empire 8, and Huntingdon is likely to be playing Maryville for the USAC title on the last day of the regular season.  It would be really tough to leave out a team with three wins over Pool A teams.  In my mind, the two biggest strikes against them are 1) they didn't just lose to UMHB, they got annihilated.  I don't know how much that's supposed to factor into this decision but I just can't ignore that the game was totally non-competitive; it's one thing to give a team credit for a tough loss to a top-five team but this wasn't a competitive loss.  I'm well aware that UMHB would make a lot of teams look bad - but we're splitting hairs about which 2-loss team to let into the tournament, and a closer look reveals that not one but several teams on UMHB's schedule have played them more competitively than Wesley did.  The second big strike is obvious - the Rowan loss a week after Rowan lost to Morrisville State.  If Rowan wins out and takes the NJAC's Pool A bid, I think we have an interesting debate because Wesley could have played an incredible FIVE playoff teams and dropping two games is more "forgivable" in that light than a schedule with "only" 2 or 3 games against playoff teams.

[smedindy]

Oh, Wesley. Just join a conference, will ya? 

(Or maybe should I say, SOMEONE LET WESLEY PLAY WITH THEM!)

[Ralph Turner]

Oh, Wesley. Just join a conference, will ya? 

(Or maybe should I say, SOMEONE LET WESLEY PLAY WITH THEM!)

I think that we may see Wesley with a record of 3-2 versus regionally ranked teams, too.  (Salisbury, Widener, Huntingdon and UMHB and Rowan)

That is another of the criteria (as opposed to record against Pool A teams which is not expressly listed.)

[wally_wabash]

Oh, Wesley. Just join a conference, will ya? 

(Or maybe should I say, SOMEONE LET WESLEY PLAY WITH THEM!)

I think that we may see Wesley with a record of 3-2 versus regionally ranked teams, too.  (Salisbury, Widener, Huntingdon and UMHB and Rowan)

That is another of the criteria (as opposed to record against Pool A teams which is not expressly listed.)

Huntingdon getting ranked or not is HUGE for Wesley.  Huntingdon is probably safe until the Maryville game...so we'll have to wait and see if 7-2 is good enough to get Huntingdon into the South's top 10 prior to week 11.  If the Hawks win that game, they'd almost certainly be ranked in the double secret Saturday-night rankings.  Widener is no lock to get ranked and if Rowan loses to Cortland State they might not see a ranking either.  If all three of those teams fail to get regional recognition, Wesley becomes a very difficult choice.  I know it isn't criteria, but they would do well to not get embarrassed on 11/9 against Charlotte.  That's a bad time to get demolished. 

[@d3jason]

On the other hand, if Widener, Salisbury, UMHB, Huntingdon and Rowan all win their respective conferences......

[Ralph Turner]

On the other hand, if Widener, Salisbury, UMHB, Huntingdon and Rowan all win their respective conferences......

...which is why I am rooting for Wesley.

I remember the first time that I learned about Wesley. It was the 2000 playoffs when Wesley (the higher seed) had to play at Trinity because of issues with the playoff venue in Dover.  (That was back in the dial-up modem 24K days of the internet).   

[K-Mack]

wally: one thing I don't have an answer for just yet, but could affect this, is the possibility of MWC co-champions that will not actually face one another.  I'm not sure how the tie is broken, but Illinois College and St. Norbert both have a chance to win out and finish undefeated in conference play (SN lost to John Carroll to open the season; that is the only loss for either team).  Suppose that St. Norbert gets the Pool A through whatever the tiebreaker is (unlikely if it's point differential, as they've won a few close ones while IC is blowing people out); this would leave Illinois College as a 10-0 conference co-champion without a Pool A bid.  Might not even matter by the end of the season, but if it turns out IC is in Pool C, one has to imagine that they'll go as the only undefeated team in C, correct?  Since everyone else in C will have a loss by then...

I know you're projecting based on "if the season ended today" - just an interesting possible wrench in the system that could come up.

Yeah, that's a weird scenario.  Totally depends on where the West region RAC sticks Illinois College.  If they get placed behind a WIAC runner up with one loss and maybe PLU and maybe a single-loss MIAC team (for instance if St. Thomas wins out and claims the MIAC AQ), then you could totally see the Blue Boys get left out at 10-0.  That is IF the RAC placed them behind those one-loss teams...which seems really reasonable.  There would be a lot of salty people up north if IC got in and 9-1 Bethel didn't or 9-1 Oshkosh didn't.

I know this has since been addressed and IC leads the tiereaker scenario, but IMO, a 10-0 getting left out would never happen. We rarely ever discuss it, but in-region win pct. is one of the five primary criteria. And I'm confident the committee would lean on that when making sure to get said team into the field.

[ExTartanPlayer]

wally: one thing I don't have an answer for just yet, but could affect this, is the possibility of MWC co-champions that will not actually face one another.  I'm not sure how the tie is broken, but Illinois College and St. Norbert both have a chance to win out and finish undefeated in conference play (SN lost to John Carroll to open the season; that is the only loss for either team).  Suppose that St. Norbert gets the Pool A through whatever the tiebreaker is (unlikely if it's point differential, as they've won a few close ones while IC is blowing people out); this would leave Illinois College as a 10-0 conference co-champion without a Pool A bid.  Might not even matter by the end of the season, but if it turns out IC is in Pool C, one has to imagine that they'll go as the only undefeated team in C, correct?  Since everyone else in C will have a loss by then...

I know you're projecting based on "if the season ended today" - just an interesting possible wrench in the system that could come up.

Yeah, that's a weird scenario.  Totally depends on where the West region RAC sticks Illinois College.  If they get placed behind a WIAC runner up with one loss and maybe PLU and maybe a single-loss MIAC team (for instance if St. Thomas wins out and claims the MIAC AQ), then you could totally see the Blue Boys get left out at 10-0.  That is IF the RAC placed them behind those one-loss teams...which seems really reasonable.  There would be a lot of salty people up north if IC got in and 9-1 Bethel didn't or 9-1 Oshkosh didn't.

I know this has since been addressed and IC leads the tiereaker scenario, but IMO, a 10-0 getting left out would never happen. We rarely ever discuss it, but in-region win pct. is one of the five primary criteria. And I'm confident the committee would lean on that when making sure to get said team into the field.

This was my gut feeling as well.  I would have a hard time imagining a 10-0 Pool C team (this particular MWC scenario is the only way I can imagine this ever happening) being left out of the field almost regardless of the criteria. 

*Perhaps I should amend this since I'm sure someone will misinterpret and either refer to a time when undefeated teams were left out of the field or point out that Keith says the primary criteria of regional win percentage is the leg that would support putting said team in the field.  But my point is just that, regardless of what the criteria say, I don't know how the committee in TODAY's playoff setup could look at a 10-0 team (which hasn't exactly been scratching out close wins, either, and won 55-7 against the nominal "third place" team behind themselves and St. Norbert) and put in multiple teams with losses that had access to a Pool A and did have a chance to claim it on the field.  This would just be an especially curious case of a team that had Pool A access and did not get it through wackiness (i.e. if their tiebreaker was the Rose Bowl rule or something other than quarters led, which still is an on-field determinant).

[AUPepBand]

Oh, Wesley. Just join a conference, will ya? 

(Or maybe should I say, SOMEONE LET WESLEY PLAY WITH THEM!)

Pep understood that they wanted to tag along with Salisbury and Frostburg when the two Maryland schools joined the E8 in 2011 (after Norwich's departure in 2009). E8 either didn't want the extra conference game (would have meant 8 conference games, leaving only 2 OOC games) or they didn't want the E8 trophy going to Delaware. Adding Wesley would have been a bitter pill for conference contenders to swallow, IPHO.

On Saxon Warriors!

[@d3jason]

Is sending it to Maryland every year any easier for them to swallow?

[pumkinattack]

The E8 is lucky they have enough for a pool A at all.  Ithaca made it known they were interested in the LL a few years back when we took in Springfield (and I believe before as well), but the league took in a couple of other non-football playing teams (Bard and somebody else I've forgotten).  If they had lost Springfield and IC, their only hope would've been to bring in all the SUNYs.  I still wonder if IC will look to move again.  Especially if WPI were to leave the LL.  If you think about the core E8, it's IC, Alfred, SJF, Utica and Hartwick.   

[Pat Coleman]

RIT was the other school that moved to the LL.

[wdelsean]

SOS, Team, Full D3 Record, Wins, D3 Games remaining

1 Wesley 4-2  (Widener, Huntingdon, Birm-Southern, Salisbury) - NO FULL D3 GAMES LEFT
25  WashU 6-2 (Rhodes, Centre, Berry, Hendrix, Macalester, CarnMellon) - CWR, Chicago
32 FraminghamSt 7-1 (Endicott, FitchSt, WCSU, Mass-Dart, WFieldSt, PlymSt, MassMar) -  BWaterSt, WorcState
70 Centre 6-2 (Bethany, Rose-Hulman, WashLee, Berry, Sewanee, Hendrix) -Millsaps, BirmSth
105 Rhodes 6-2 (Austin, Clar-Mudd, Berry, Chicago, Sewanee, Centre) - Hendrix, Millsaps
136 Millsaps 7-0 (MissColl, LaGrange, Sewanee, Hentrix, Trinity, BirmSth, Berry) - Centre, Rhodes
196 Tex Lutheran 7-0 (SWestern, Trinity, ETBU, Austin, SulRoss, MissColl, LaColl) - Hard-Simm, HPayne

Framingham's SOS is up 13.  Millsaps' SOS plummeted the second they stepped on the field with Berry, but they just need two (one?) wins to lock up a bid anyway.  Undoubtedly the biggest win was Texas Lutheran's, whose win over LaCollege barely snuck them into the 100's in SOS, making that win vital.  Now we just await the regional rankings to see which victories get that added kick.

[ExTartanPlayer]

SOS, Team, Full D3 Record, Wins, D3 Games remaining

1 Wesley 4-2  (Widener, Huntingdon, Birm-Southern, Salisbury) - NO FULL D3 GAMES LEFT
25  WashU 6-2 (Rhodes, Centre, Berry, Hendrix, Macalester, CarnMellon) - CWR, Chicago
32 FraminghamSt 7-1 (Endicott, FitchSt, WCSU, Mass-Dart, WFieldSt, PlymSt, MassMar) -  BWaterSt, WorcState
70 Centre 6-2 (Bethany, Rose-Hulman, WashLee, Berry, Sewanee, Hendrix) -Millsaps, BirmSth
105 Rhodes 6-2 (Austin, Clar-Mudd, Berry, Chicago, Sewanee, Centre) - Hendrix, Millsaps
136 Millsaps 7-0 (MissColl, LaGrange, Sewanee, Hentrix, Trinity, BirmSth, Berry) - Centre, Rhodes
196 Tex Lutheran 7-0 (SWestern, Trinity, ETBU, Austin, SulRoss, MissColl, LaColl) - Hard-Simm, HPayne

Framingham's SOS is up 13.  Millsaps' SOS plummeted the second they stepped on the field with Berry, but they just need two (one?) wins to lock up a bid anyway.  Undoubtedly the biggest win was Texas Lutheran's, whose win over LaCollege barely snuck them into the 100's in SOS, making that win vital.  Now we just await the regional rankings to see which victories get that added kick.

Thanks for grabbing this information wdelsean.  Couple thoughts:

1) Undefeated TLU will be safe if they stay undefeated.  No way an undefeated team gets left out for teams with two losses, regardless of SOS.

2) Millsaps is definitely in if undefeated, and might be in with a loss.  I really think they're in unless they lost to both Centre and Rhodes.

3) WashU/Wesley/Framingham is kind of an interesting debate (assuming all win out).  Wesley has a monster SOS but the "signature win" aspect has gone away a bit.  For a while it looked like they'd be able to hang their hats on a record compiled against virtually all Pool A qualifiers, but now several of those teams have lost.  Framingham has an SOS not too far below WashU's and is looking at 1 loss vs. 2 losses, while WashU can hang their hat on a close loss to top-10 UW-Whitewater, a far more competitive loss than Wesley's loss to UMHB.  Will be interested to see how it plays out.  I don't think any of these teams save perhaps Framingham (who might end up at the top of the East's at-large board) has a chance to get in through Pool C.