Pool B

[wesleydad]

SOS, Team, Full D3 Record, Wins, D3 Games remaining

1 Wesley 4-2  (Widener, Huntingdon, Birm-Southern, Salisbury) - NO FULL D3 GAMES LEFT
25  WashU 6-2 (Rhodes, Centre, Berry, Hendrix, Macalester, CarnMellon) - CWR, Chicago
32 FraminghamSt 7-1 (Endicott, FitchSt, WCSU, Mass-Dart, WFieldSt, PlymSt, MassMar) -  BWaterSt, WorcState
70 Centre 6-2 (Bethany, Rose-Hulman, WashLee, Berry, Sewanee, Hendrix) -Millsaps, BirmSth
105 Rhodes 6-2 (Austin, Clar-Mudd, Berry, Chicago, Sewanee, Centre) - Hendrix, Millsaps
136 Millsaps 7-0 (MissColl, LaGrange, Sewanee, Hentrix, Trinity, BirmSth, Berry) - Centre, Rhodes
196 Tex Lutheran 7-0 (SWestern, Trinity, ETBU, Austin, SulRoss, MissColl, LaColl) - Hard-Simm, HPayne

Framingham's SOS is up 13.  Millsaps' SOS plummeted the second they stepped on the field with Berry, but they just need two (one?) wins to lock up a bid anyway.  Undoubtedly the biggest win was Texas Lutheran's, whose win over LaCollege barely snuck them into the 100's in SOS, making that win vital.  Now we just await the regional rankings to see which victories get that added kick.

Thanks for grabbing this information wdelsean.  Couple thoughts:

1) Undefeated TLU will be safe if they stay undefeated.  No way an undefeated team gets left out for teams with two losses, regardless of SOS.

2) Millsaps is definitely in if undefeated, and might be in with a loss.  I really think they're in unless they lost to both Centre and Rhodes.

3) WashU/Wesley/Framingham is kind of an interesting debate (assuming all win out).  Wesley has a monster SOS but the "signature win" aspect has gone away a bit.  For a while it looked like they'd be able to hang their hats on a record compiled against virtually all Pool A qualifiers, but now several of those teams have lost.  Framingham has an SOS not too far below WashU's and is looking at 1 loss vs. 2 losses, while WashU can hang their hat on a close loss to top-10 UW-Whitewater, a far more competitive loss than Wesley's loss to UMHB.  Will be interested to see how it plays out.  I don't think any of these teams save perhaps Framingham (who might end up at the top of the East's at-large board) has a chance to get in through Pool C.

ex tartan, agree with you.  Wesley has lost some of the luster with the Salisbury and Widener loses this week.  I know that Wash U was competitive with UWW early, but they have been horrible the last 2 weeks, scoring only 7 and 9 in wins, having to kick a 45 yd field goal on the last play to win this week.  I think there is a good chance that they lose to either Case or Chicago in the next 2 weeks.  That will leave Wesley and Framingham.  I am not sure how the B/C decision process works, but if Framingham gets on the board for a C then it looks like Wesley will be in.  I still think that Wesley is better and they have a common opponent in Rowan to compare if needed.

[Ron Boerger]

wesleydad, B's are chosen first, then any remaining teams are also eligible for C consideration.

[wesleydad]

thanks ron.  with that in mind, then the framingham discussion of a possible C would seem to be mute.

[smedindy]

Not necessarily nuts with their strong SOS. We have to see where they are ranked and who they're up against.

[Ralph Turner]

If TLU goes undefeated, then I think that they will get the Pool B.

If we exclude UMHB from the membership of the ASC in considering the strength of the conference, I would rank the (ASC + TLU) at about #12, even in a down year such as this. 

(What has happened to HSU since Jimmie Keeling retired?)

[Ralph Turner]

Re:  WashStL

First-year team Hendrix's wide receiver was tackled on the Bears' 1 yd line on the last play of its game with the Bears.  There is another bullet dodged.

[ExTartanPlayer]

SOS, Team, Full D3 Record, Wins, D3 Games remaining

1 Wesley 4-2  (Widener, Huntingdon, Birm-Southern, Salisbury) - NO FULL D3 GAMES LEFT
25  WashU 6-2 (Rhodes, Centre, Berry, Hendrix, Macalester, CarnMellon) - CWR, Chicago
32 FraminghamSt 7-1 (Endicott, FitchSt, WCSU, Mass-Dart, WFieldSt, PlymSt, MassMar) -  BWaterSt, WorcState
70 Centre 6-2 (Bethany, Rose-Hulman, WashLee, Berry, Sewanee, Hendrix) -Millsaps, BirmSth
105 Rhodes 6-2 (Austin, Clar-Mudd, Berry, Chicago, Sewanee, Centre) - Hendrix, Millsaps
136 Millsaps 7-0 (MissColl, LaGrange, Sewanee, Hentrix, Trinity, BirmSth, Berry) - Centre, Rhodes
196 Tex Lutheran 7-0 (SWestern, Trinity, ETBU, Austin, SulRoss, MissColl, LaColl) - Hard-Simm, HPayne

Framingham's SOS is up 13.  Millsaps' SOS plummeted the second they stepped on the field with Berry, but they just need two (one?) wins to lock up a bid anyway.  Undoubtedly the biggest win was Texas Lutheran's, whose win over LaCollege barely snuck them into the 100's in SOS, making that win vital.  Now we just await the regional rankings to see which victories get that added kick.

Thanks for grabbing this information wdelsean.  Couple thoughts:

1) Undefeated TLU will be safe if they stay undefeated.  No way an undefeated team gets left out for teams with two losses, regardless of SOS.

2) Millsaps is definitely in if undefeated, and might be in with a loss.  I really think they're in unless they lost to both Centre and Rhodes.

3) WashU/Wesley/Framingham is kind of an interesting debate (assuming all win out).  Wesley has a monster SOS but the "signature win" aspect has gone away a bit.  For a while it looked like they'd be able to hang their hats on a record compiled against virtually all Pool A qualifiers, but now several of those teams have lost.  Framingham has an SOS not too far below WashU's and is looking at 1 loss vs. 2 losses, while WashU can hang their hat on a close loss to top-10 UW-Whitewater, a far more competitive loss than Wesley's loss to UMHB.  Will be interested to see how it plays out.  I don't think any of these teams save perhaps Framingham (who might end up at the top of the East's at-large board) has a chance to get in through Pool C.

ex tartan, agree with you.  Wesley has lost some of the luster with the Salisbury and Widener loses this week.  I know that Wash U was competitive with UWW early, but they have been horrible the last 2 weeks, scoring only 7 and 9 in wins, having to kick a 45 yd field goal on the last play to win this week.  I think there is a good chance that they lose to either Case or Chicago in the next 2 weeks.  That will leave Wesley and Framingham.  I am not sure how the B/C decision process works, but if Framingham gets on the board for a C then it looks like Wesley will be in.  I still think that Wesley is better and they have a common opponent in Rowan to compare if needed.

Oh, you don't have to explain WashU/CMU/Case/Chicago to me, the "Tartan" in my name is there for a reason.  If I remember correctly, your son was on the Wesley team the day that my Tartans got smoked by the Wolverines in the 2006 playoffs, although perhaps my memory is faulty.  It's been seven years and I still haven't managed to block Bryan Robinson

I have followed the UAA closely all season, and I was at the CMU-WashU game this weekend.  WashU looked exactly like I expected; they have an excellent defense and a so-so offense.  Don't confuse those close wins the last two weeks with outright bad overall performances - their defense can play with anyone save the top 5 teams in Division III (again, they held UWW off the board for 45+ minutes and nearly won a game in which their offense did absolutely nothing after the first quarter), it's their lackluster offense that keeps those games close.  I think it is POSSIBLE that they will lose to Case or Chicago but certainly far from a lock, and I think WashU is the favorite in both games.  Their defense is really, really good.  It's just a question of whether they can keep winning games 10-6; WashU did win the UAA last year.  I think they'll finish 8-2 and very much in this conversation.

We're also assuming that Millsaps and TLU win out for simplicity's sake, but if one or both of them loses a game, we now have a big, big mess on our hands.  How does one disentangle, say, 8-2 Rhodes (with H2H win over Millsaps), 8-2 WashU (with H2H win over Rhodes), and 9-1 Millsaps (who lost to Rhodes) in such a scenario?  WashU seems like the choice there for me because of the H2H results and SOS difference, but still, this will be a big, big mess if Millsaps drops a game to Rhodes or Centre, since WashU beat both head-to-head, that creates all sorts of wacky scenarios.

The discussion of Framingham for a C is interesting because, in a strange twist, they might be the one with the best chance at a Pool C if they're passed over for a Pool B, while the others will probably not get that chance even if Framingham gets a B and they don't.  Wally has done a nice job breaking down why this is so, but it basically boils down to the fact that Framingham would most likely be the first Pool C team on the board from the East, while that doesn't seem likely for any of the other would-be-C candidates in the Pool B mix.  I suppose if Millsaps lost a game, but finished 9-1 and was passed over for a Pool B, they might be up on the South board.  There's probably not much chance of WashU, Wesley, Centre, Rhodes, ever seeing the board in the Pool C discussion.

Obviously, you are correct that the discussion of Framingham as a Pool C candidate is moot IF they get one of the Pool B bids.

[wally_wabash]

I'm getting into full playoff nerd mode here....I'm poking around at a map and the geographical distribution of teams that may be in the tournament and I don't think TLU/UMHB is necessarily a forgone conclusion.  It looks like Millsaps can bus to UMHB or to Maryville and that's it.  The Majors are flying anywhere else for a playoff game. 

If PLU gets invited, you've got Redlands as an orphan.  So if we wind up with Linfield, PLU, Redlands, TLU, UMHB, Millsaps, and Maryville all in the tournament and we have to minimize the flights, you're going to get Linfield/PLU, UMHB/TLU, Millsaps/Maryville and then somebody else is going to fly to Redlands or Redlands is going somewhere cold.

Or, since there is a flight here somewhere, you could pair up TLU and Redlands (probably at TLU), Millsaps drives to UMHB, and Maryville is driveable to several locations (Franklin, Wabash, Witt, Heidelberg, Hampden-Sydney, Greenville, W&J, Thomas More) and that gets away from a Texas pod that so many people find distasteful. 

Even so, I think the most likely scenario is TLU and UMHB in the first round, Millsaps and Maryville and then Redlands off to somewhere very uncomfortable in the upper midwest (Oshkosh). 

[Ralph Turner]

I'm getting into full playoff nerd mode here....I'm poking around at a map and the geographical distribution of teams that may be in the tournament and I don't think TLU/UMHB is necessarily a forgone conclusion.  It looks like Millsaps can bus to UMHB or to Maryville and that's it.  The Majors are flying anywhere else for a playoff game. 

If PLU gets invited, you've got Redlands as an orphan.  So if we wind up with Linfield, PLU, Redlands, TLU, UMHB, Millsaps, and Maryville all in the tournament and we have to minimize the flights, you're going to get Linfield/PLU, UMHB/TLU, Millsaps/Maryville and then somebody else is going to fly to Redlands or Redlands is going somewhere cold.

Or, since there is a flight here somewhere, you could pair up TLU and Redlands (probably at TLU), Millsaps drives to UMHB, and Maryville is driveable to several locations (Franklin, Wabash, Witt, Heidelberg, Hampden-Sydney, Greenville, W&J, Thomas More) and that gets away from a Texas pod that so many people find distasteful. 

Even so, I think the most likely scenario is TLU and UMHB in the first round, Millsaps and Maryville and then Redlands off to somewhere very uncomfortable in the upper midwest (Oshkosh).

I would love for Redlands at  undefeated TLU to be a #4/#5 game in some bracket.

Which bracket?  The Linfield Bracket?  The UMHB Bracket?  Not likely the Mount Union Bracket or the North Central Bracket.

[d-train]

Pair up the Lutherans!

[Bob.Gregg]

Since the AQ came to the PAC, I'm a little out of touch with Pool B.  Has a Pool B gotten a Pool C bid yet?...

[wesleydad]

SOS, Team, Full D3 Record, Wins, D3 Games remaining

1 Wesley 4-2  (Widener, Huntingdon, Birm-Southern, Salisbury) - NO FULL D3 GAMES LEFT
25  WashU 6-2 (Rhodes, Centre, Berry, Hendrix, Macalester, CarnMellon) - CWR, Chicago
32 FraminghamSt 7-1 (Endicott, FitchSt, WCSU, Mass-Dart, WFieldSt, PlymSt, MassMar) -  BWaterSt, WorcState
70 Centre 6-2 (Bethany, Rose-Hulman, WashLee, Berry, Sewanee, Hendrix) -Millsaps, BirmSth
105 Rhodes 6-2 (Austin, Clar-Mudd, Berry, Chicago, Sewanee, Centre) - Hendrix, Millsaps
136 Millsaps 7-0 (MissColl, LaGrange, Sewanee, Hentrix, Trinity, BirmSth, Berry) - Centre, Rhodes
196 Tex Lutheran 7-0 (SWestern, Trinity, ETBU, Austin, SulRoss, MissColl, LaColl) - Hard-Simm, HPayne

Framingham's SOS is up 13.  Millsaps' SOS plummeted the second they stepped on the field with Berry, but they just need two (one?) wins to lock up a bid anyway.  Undoubtedly the biggest win was Texas Lutheran's, whose win over LaCollege barely snuck them into the 100's in SOS, making that win vital.  Now we just await the regional rankings to see which victories get that added kick.

Thanks for grabbing this information wdelsean.  Couple thoughts:

1) Undefeated TLU will be safe if they stay undefeated.  No way an undefeated team gets left out for teams with two losses, regardless of SOS.

2) Millsaps is definitely in if undefeated, and might be in with a loss.  I really think they're in unless they lost to both Centre and Rhodes.

3) WashU/Wesley/Framingham is kind of an interesting debate (assuming all win out).  Wesley has a monster SOS but the "signature win" aspect has gone away a bit.  For a while it looked like they'd be able to hang their hats on a record compiled against virtually all Pool A qualifiers, but now several of those teams have lost.  Framingham has an SOS not too far below WashU's and is looking at 1 loss vs. 2 losses, while WashU can hang their hat on a close loss to top-10 UW-Whitewater, a far more competitive loss than Wesley's loss to UMHB.  Will be interested to see how it plays out.  I don't think any of these teams save perhaps Framingham (who might end up at the top of the East's at-large board) has a chance to get in through Pool C.

ex tartan, agree with you.  Wesley has lost some of the luster with the Salisbury and Widener loses this week.  I know that Wash U was competitive with UWW early, but they have been horrible the last 2 weeks, scoring only 7 and 9 in wins, having to kick a 45 yd field goal on the last play to win this week.  I think there is a good chance that they lose to either Case or Chicago in the next 2 weeks.  That will leave Wesley and Framingham.  I am not sure how the B/C decision process works, but if Framingham gets on the board for a C then it looks like Wesley will be in.  I still think that Wesley is better and they have a common opponent in Rowan to compare if needed.

Oh, you don't have to explain WashU/CMU/Case/Chicago to me, the "Tartan" in my name is there for a reason.  If I remember correctly, your son was on the Wesley team the day that my Tartans got smoked by the Wolverines in the 2006 playoffs, although perhaps my memory is faulty.  It's been seven years and I still haven't managed to block Bryan Robinson

I have followed the UAA closely all season, and I was at the CMU-WashU game this weekend.  WashU looked exactly like I expected; they have an excellent defense and a so-so offense.  Don't confuse those close wins the last two weeks with outright bad overall performances - their defense can play with anyone save the top 5 teams in Division III (again, they held UWW off the board for 45+ minutes and nearly won a game in which their offense did absolutely nothing after the first quarter), it's their lackluster offense that keeps those games close.  I think it is POSSIBLE that they will lose to Case or Chicago but certainly far from a lock, and I think WashU is the favorite in both games.  Their defense is really, really good.  It's just a question of whether they can keep winning games 10-6; WashU did win the UAA last year.  I think they'll finish 8-2 and very much in this conversation.

We're also assuming that Millsaps and TLU win out for simplicity's sake, but if one or both of them loses a game, we now have a big, big mess on our hands.  How does one disentangle, say, 8-2 Rhodes (with H2H win over Millsaps), 8-2 WashU (with H2H win over Rhodes), and 9-1 Millsaps (who lost to Rhodes) in such a scenario?  WashU seems like the choice there for me because of the H2H results and SOS difference, but still, this will be a big, big mess if Millsaps drops a game to Rhodes or Centre, since WashU beat both head-to-head, that creates all sorts of wacky scenarios.

The discussion of Framingham for a C is interesting because, in a strange twist, they might be the one with the best chance at a Pool C if they're passed over for a Pool B, while the others will probably not get that chance even if Framingham gets a B and they don't.  Wally has done a nice job breaking down why this is so, but it basically boils down to the fact that Framingham would most likely be the first Pool C team on the board from the East, while that doesn't seem likely for any of the other would-be-C candidates in the Pool B mix.  I suppose if Millsaps lost a game, but finished 9-1 and was passed over for a Pool B, they might be up on the South board.  There's probably not much chance of WashU, Wesley, Centre, Rhodes, ever seeing the board in the Pool C discussion.

Obviously, you are correct that the discussion of Framingham as a Pool C candidate is moot IF they get one of the Pool B bids.

Yes, he was on the 2006 team. 

i agree if millsaps loses it becomes a real mess.  if wash u loses then all the other scenarios still are messy.  Wesley takes care of business and wins the rowan game and there is not much pool b discussion left, millsaps, tlu, and wesley would be in.  the next 2 weeks will be interesting to say the least.  I hope wesley has gotten healthy during the off week and puts up a good fight this week against charlotte.

[smedindy]

No, A "B" still hasn't cracked the "C" ceiling, yet.

[Bob.Gregg]

as you'd remember, smedindy, that was always one of my points to watch heading down the stretch..."Is THIS the year a "B" gets a "C"?"  lol.  And from reading briefly on here today, it seems there a decent chance It Could Happen...lol

[d-train]

Pair up the Lutherans!

Thrivent Financial for Lutherans / Lutheran Brotherhood have offered to help fund the extra flight and purchase the meat for the pregame meal.  They just ask that last names A-M bring salad or dessert and N-Z bring a hot side dish.