Pool B

[Bob.Gregg]

Alright, major, run this scenario for me...

Linfield wins out, Whitworth wins all but Linfield.

Wesley wins out, W&J wins out, CMU wins out (including win over Thiel).

Is THIS the scenario that gives a "B" a "C"?

[K-Mack]

I really think that if CMU wins out Linfield must beat Whitworth to get in.  A team win two d3 losses let alone two in region losses will not get in over top of a 10-0 team no matter what the schedules or the reputation of the porgram is.

I tend to agree, but it's not set in stone. If Linfield's losses are to unbeaten Whitworth and one-loss Hardin-Simmons, that may compare favorably to a 1-loss team with a weaker schedule/SOS.

Also, it depends if the Pool C picture gets ugly, in which case two losses might not eliminate the hopes of a Pool B team.

Alright, major, run this scenario for me...

Linfield wins out, Whitworth wins all but Linfield.

Wesley wins out, W&J wins out, CMU wins out (including win over Thiel).

Is THIS the scenario that gives a "B" a "C"?

That would the one I can envision. That would be two unbeatens (Wesley and CMU) and three one-loss teams, Linfield to HSU, Whitworth to Linfield and W&J to Salisbury.

It all depends on the worthiness of the other teams competing for that last Pool B/C slot and how the SOS, in-region record and other factors match up.

Anecdotally speaking, unbeaten teams get in. One-loss teams are probably an 85% bet to get in, 95% if your one loss is not a blowout. Two-loss teams are at the mercy of the rest of the field, i.e. they need some help, but at that point it helps to have played a strong schedule and not have a fluke loss to a 5-5 team on there.

Coe could win most of the rest of its games, with a split against Wartburg and Central, and have the Loras loss come back to bite them there, for instance.

[Ralph Turner]

All 6 teams on Bob Gregg's list won on Saturday.

[Bob.Gregg]

Here's what's left:  (In-Region Games in Bold)

1)  Wesley (6-0/4-0) 
Brockport State (2-4)
@ Salisbury (3-3)
Chowan (0-6)
Morrisville State (1-6)

2)  Whitworth (6-0/5-0)  
@ Menlo (3-3)
Willamette (1-5)
@ Linfield (3-2)
Puget Sound (4-2)

3)  Washington & Jefferson (5-1/4-1)
Grove City (1-5)
Waynesburg (3-3)
Thomas More (4-2)
@ Bethany (3-3)

4)  Linfield (3-2, 2-1) 
@ Pacific Lutheran (2-4)
Menlo (3-3)
Whitworth (6-0)
@ Lewis & Clark (0-5)

5)  Carnegie-Mellon (6-0/5-0)
Chicago (2-3)
@ Washington (MO) (4-3)
Bethany (3-3)
@ Thiel (4-3)

6)  Rockford (6-1/6-0)
@ Martin Luther (1-5)
off
@ Colorado College (3-3)
off

For information only (I don't believe these two are even under consideration at this point):

?? Huntingdon (4-3/3-2)
@ Thomas More (4-2)
LaGrange (0-7)
@ SW Assemblies of God (1-5 NAIA)

?? Thiel (4-3/3-2)
Waynesburg (3-3)
Westminster (1-5)
Carnegie-Mellon (6-0)

[Ron Boerger]

So stupid that Trinity (TX) can play Redlands (CA), Hardin-Simmons take in Linfield (OR) and UW-Stevens Point,  and Mary Hardin-Baylor (TX) take on UW-Whitewater and have all be "in region," but somehow only 5 of Wesley's 10 games are "in region."

In-region is a totally meaningless distinction now.  Get rid of it (directed at NCAA, not Bob). 

[ADL70]

IMHO it has always been a meaningless distinction, only the more so now.

[dc_has_been]

Pool B is for teams that do not have an automatic bid for conf champ?

[Ralph Turner]

So stupid that Trinity (TX) can play Redlands (CA), Hardin-Simmons take in Linfield (OR) and UW-Stevens Point,  and Mary Hardin-Baylor (TX) take on UW-Whitewater and have all be "in region," but somehow only 5 of Wesley's 10 games are "in region."

In-region is a totally meaningless distinction now.  Get rid of it (directed at NCAA, not Bob). 

Ron, I can imagine how coaches would use in-region and non-in-region...

UMHB could schedule Mount Union as a regular season game.

Both teams get a strong opponent, but the loss will not hurt chances at Pool C or Bracket-seeding.

It is a whole lot better than having to schedule NAIA's or D2/D1AA's to fill a schedule.

[ADL70]

Ralph I think the UMHB-MtU scenario is a positive, but unintended, consequence.  With the definition of "in region" expanded, I'm not sure what the original intent was.  Is there a point in encouraging MtU to play UMHB rather than Wheaton or WUStL to play MtU, not Wheaton?  UMHB scheduled CNU this year and that is in region.  Maybe it depends on whether a school's interest is a risk-free tough game or a tough game to add to regional ranking if they win.

Maybe I'm dense, but I don't see a point in the distinction.

[Bill McCabe]

I'm not sure UMHB knew the Whitewater game would be an in-region game. 

[Ron Boerger]

When it was scheduled, it was not (IIRC).

[Bill McCabe]

Ron, I'm not sure they would have made that game if they had known.  Oh well, they still make the playoffs win or lose if they win the ASC.  Interesting question earlier, would HSU have a higher seeding if they win out, UMHB wins the ASC, but loses to Whitewater.

[BDTartan]

I don't fully understand this but I am catching a grasp of it.  I kind of figured CMU had to go 10-0 to get in, but I have one question for those who believe they get in with 1 loss:  Who is that one loss to?  Obviously not Chicago or Bethany so I am assuming it would be Thiel or Washington depending on how those two teams finish am I correct?

[Ralph Turner]

Good morning Tartan,

I have missed Pool B Prognostications before (especially Huntingdon in basketball in 2006), but I think that you have a strong chance of getting a bid, B or C, if you go undefeated.  The winning percentage is maxed; you have a higher QOWI (by at least 0.4 Index points), and you are trying for all 23 11 bids.*  A loss drops your winning percentage and QOWI into the mix of teams who will have one loss.  There are some very strong one-loss teams that have better data to use when applying the primary criteria from the Handbook.

Tartan, under the new Pools system, my emotional issue is how does the NCAA tell an undefeated team that they did not do enough to earn a bid.  That is pure emotion, which is not one of the criteria.

By the 9th week, after the first Regional Rankings, we will get an idea of CMU's chances.

Good luck!

*  Technically as a Pool B team you are trying for all 23 11 bids anyway.  My thoughts are that an undefeated CMU is closer to parity with the Wesley's, Whitworth's and Wash & Jeff's. (Sorry about the reference to 23.  I had just come from the Basketball Pool B boards and was confused about the number of Pool C bids...a really "bad" my bad!)

[BDTartan]

Thanks for the info.  I am going to do a little bit of reading this morning to help myself understand this playoff system.  The only thing I ever had to deal with was the Ohio H.S. Football playoff system which was a little simpler.