Pool B

[AO]

that's what I was attempting to use

[The Forgotten Man]

AO. I admire your taking the time to work with the numbers. I sat down to do it last night and then decided I didn't have the patience.

You and I are both depending on a lot of "ifs"--but that's why the play the game right?

If we go with your assumptions and mine that LC wins (and I know that is the big IF) then let's take a look at the primary criteria

The primary criteria from the NCAA handbook are:

• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents. [this would go to LC]

• Strength-of-schedule (only contests versus regional competition).
   - Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP). [goes to NW]
   - Opponents' Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OOWP). [I think this goes to LC]

• In-region head-to-head competition. [I take this to mean LC vs NW -- correct me if I'm wrong]
• In-region results versus common regional opponents. [no common opponents]
• In-region results versus regionally ranked teams. [Has NW played any teams that are likely to be regionally ranked at the time of the selection process?]

IF LC beats Huntingdon, I still think LC has a slight edge unless NW has beaten a regionally ranked opponent.

Let's also look at it logically. I think we both agree that if HC wins, they go ahead of NW. So if LC beats HC they should go ahead of NW also. 
        HC(wins) > NW is the premise. If you accept the premise, we have  IF LC(win) > HC, THEN LC (win) > NW.

But then again, the NCAA Handbook doesn't mention logic as a criterion.

Cheers!

[AO]

Now, you've got me curious, and now that I understand it, the calculation shouldn't take too long this time.

Huntingdon

Maryville	5-3
MacMurray	3-5
Greenville	6-3
Eureka	3-5
Blackburn	2-7
Westminster	4-3
Principia	0-9
Hampen-Sydney	6-1
Lagrange	7-0

I calculate Huntingdon's current OWP as .446 and final OWP as .506.  Considering the most likely result of Northwestern's opponents winning all or 3/4 of the games this weekend this puts Huntingdon tied in the result of 3 wins and below Northwestern in OWP if all 4 win. 

The bottom line is that Northwestern's schedule is more difficult than Huntingdon's or LaGrange's.  Northwestern knows better than most the sorts of teams that play in the SLIAC this year as they played in the UMAC in past years.  Every team that Northwestern used to beat on in the past is now in the SLIAC and the more challenging teams remain in the UMAC.

I also would think that a 9-1 record is actually better than 8-0 as the committee wouldn't want to reward teams for playing fewer region games.  There's a reason LaGrange hasn't been ranked yet, despite having an undefeated record.

At this point before the new regional rankings are posted, I'd give the edge to Northwestern over Huntingdon and LaGrange.

[The Forgotten Man]

AO: You make an interesting point about the strength of schedule, though I wouldn't be so quick to discount the win-loss record.

For what it's worth, the AFCA sees it this way:

 
Courtesy: AFCA
http://www.afca.com/
American Football Coaches Association Division III Coaches' Poll
November 11, 2008
...

Others Receiving Votes: Trinity (Conn.), 42; Christopher Newport (Va.), 40; Catholic (D.C.), 29/ Wheaton (Ill.), 29; Curry (Mass.), 25; Wartburg (Iowa), 23; Huntingdon (Ala.), 20; LaGrange (Ga.), 18; St. John's (Minn.), 14; Trinity (Texas), 14; Northwestern (Minn.), 13; Thomas More (Ky.), 11; Ripon (Wis.), 9; Plymouth St. (N.H.), 9; Elmhurst (Ill.), 8; Rowan (N.J.), 7; Wooster (Ohio), 7; Hobart (N.Y.), 6; Maine Maritime, 7; Adrian (Mich.), 2; Carleton (Minn.), 2.

[AO]

if the afca or d3football polls mattered, salisbury would get a bid.  we'll just have to wait and see what the regional rankings say i guess.

[SUMMIT!!!!!]

AO--- dont waste bandwidth on your Eagles hopes-- they have to win Sat to have a prayer of a chance, and they wont win.

[Pat Coleman]

Regional rankings:

http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/2008/11/12/regional-rankings-final-release/

[AO]

I believe this means that when the final unreleased rankings come out (which are the ones the NCAA uses to make selections), Huntingdon would not be in the rankings if LaGrange wins.  Therefore LaGrange would not be perceived as having beat a regionally ranked team, thereby giving no advantage to either LaGrange or Huntingdon over Northwestern.  It's a good sign for Huntingdon that they are still ranked after losing, though.

[johnnie_esq]

I believe this means that when the final unreleased rankings come out (which are the ones the NCAA uses to make selections), Huntingdon would not be in the rankings if LaGrange wins.  Therefore LaGrange would not be perceived as having beat a regionally ranked team, thereby giving no advantage to either LaGrange or Huntingdon over Northwestern.  It's a good sign for Huntingdon that they are still ranked after losing, though.

AO, this post from the LL and reposted in the Pool C bid is particularly instructive regarding playoff selections in that it is not entirely based upon math-- which more than a few people have pointed out to you.  Therefore, looking at other criteria-- while not "official"-- may be more influential than you would likely hope. 

Again, the Eagles' quality win would be against 6-4 St. Thomas-- while their loss to IIAC's Simpson is not at all helpful.  And as I mentioned, playing a team twice in a year seems to be frowned upon-- to the point that it could knock you out if on the bubble. 

Believe me, UWW is concerned about it too-- but their past history should give them a leg up in the Pool C rankings.  NCCAA titles don't count in "past history".

[AO]

I'd say playing against 9 unique regional teams is looked upon as better than playing 8 regional teams.

[Pat Coleman]

History doesn't show that to be true.

[AO]

Then barely beating Birmingham-Southern and losing to Shorter will hurt LaGrange.  If Huntingdon wins, their only significant non-conference win is Maryville, whereas Northwestern would have River Falls and St. Thomas in the final week to show.  Since, Huntingdon lost in the next to last week you'd have to say Northwestern is playing better than ever and would be more competitive in the playoffs whereas Huntingdon has proved that they can't beat a playoff caliber team at home when they needed to.

[The Forgotten Man]

Not that the Massey Ratings are used by the NCAA for DIII, but these statistics may prove interesting to some and irritating to others. I guess we'll all just have to see what happens on Saturday. May the best teams win--and be selected.  8)

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf

School           W  L Rating                SchP                SchF           MOV
LaGrange        8   1   -0.373   (70)   -1.99   (201)   -1.86   (190)   70   SLIAC
Huntingdon     8   1   -0.430   (82)   -2.08   (203)   -1.93   (196)   73   SLIAC
Northwestern  8   1   -0.597   (106)   -2.28   (208)   -2.03   (202)   76   UMAC


Rank   Conf                 W   L Rating    Parity
32   St Louis IAC         8   14   -1.214   0.4056
33   Upper Midwest      8   10   -1.505   0.4107

[johnnie_esq]

Then barely beating Birmingham-Southern and losing to Shorter will hurt LaGrange.  If Huntingdon wins, their only significant non-conference win is Maryville, whereas Northwestern would have River Falls and St. Thomas in the final week to show.  Since, Huntingdon lost in the next to last week you'd have to say Northwestern is playing better than ever and would be more competitive in the playoffs whereas Huntingdon has proved that they can't beat a playoff caliber team at home when they needed to.

Northwestern's next to last game was against a team they played earlier in the year, and their last one (assuming an Eagle win) was against a team that wasn't even in playoff contention.

In contrast, Huntingdon's next to last game (the loss) was against a playoff contender and their last game (assuming a Huntingdon win) was against a fellow playoff contender.

LaGrange, also playing a playoff contender in their last week, has their only loss to a non-D3 team.  

For every argument you make about Northwestern's chances, there is an appropriate counter-argument that is at least as strong.  Truth be told, Northwestern is hurt by playing Crown twice and by being new to the D3 scene.  One of these things is avoidable-- that on the schedule front-- while the other is not.  

I am under no delusions about the strength of the SLIAC-- I mean, in no way that Principia can reasonably be considered competitive with Mount Union-- but it's not as though first-year program St. Scholastica can be considered a step up from Principia.   And again, Northwestern didn't round out their schedule with traditional powers like Whitewater, Linfield or Central-- they took out Macalester, Wisconsin Lutheran and River Falls-- the last of which hasn't won a conference title in 10 years in the great-parity WIAC and was picked to finish 6th in the conference this year-- and for this conversation to even exist on Sunday, will have beaten St. Thomas, whose last MIAC title came when at least a few players on the NWC roster weren't yet even born.   I'm not claiming Birmingham Southern should be compared to Wartburg--but you can't say, with a straight face, that they are much different than taking on Macalester.  And LaGrange played them on the road in the first week of the season-- whereas Northwestern got Mac at home in the middle of the season.  

I identified that Northwestern has a shot at the playoffs, but given where it sits in the West region, behind two potential Pool C teams-- one of whom is even on the bubble for Pool C-- should not be taken as a sign that the committee has much confidence in Northwestern.   Being realistic, you better hope that Wesley loses and Northwestern smokes UST for the Eagles to hit the playoffs.

Edit: Forgotten man, I brought those up to AO on the MIAC board yesterday, yet he continues!

[AO]

again, the massey ratings mean nothing.  Either the committee looks at their official criteria where Northwestern is ahead in most areas, or the subjective where I will prove to you that Northwestern's schedule is/was tougher. 

I'll be honest, if St. Thomas was eligible for a bid in Pool B, they would deserve the bid over Northwestern(if they win) or Huntingdon/LaGrange.  Although St. Thomas isn't a "playoff contender", they're still a tougher team than Huntingdon/LaGrange.   Since when is getting picked 6th in the WIAC a terrible thing?  They beat Stevens Point and Eau Claire.  a team like Maryville or LaGrange has nothing remotely close to the caliber of those wins.  You're right they do need to beat St. Thomas to make it to the playoffs, but if the pregame line set for pickem's at 6.5 is any indication, it's definitely possible to pull off this upset. 

St. Scholastica is 10 steps better than principia or Blackburn.  I've seen all these teams play, it's absolutely night and day between these teams.  It's not that Scholastica is even close to great, it's that some of those sliac teams are that bad.

Northwestern played Macalester on the road.  They didn't put Northwestern behind any two loss teams in the regional rankings.  If they did that, it would be a little better indication about what the committee thinks than their current ranking above any MIAC or IIAC teams.