Pool B

[Bob.Gregg]

Only 11 months until Selection Sunday, 2006, the day (finally) that a "B" gets a "C"......

[Ralph Turner]

More consolidation among the ranks of Pool B!

See the front page!

The SLIAC is accepting the UMAC affiliates!  I am happy for those student-athletes.

The SLAIC is scheduled to become Pool A in 2010.  There goes a Pool B bid, and I think that the extra incremental increase in the numerator helps with a fraction of a Pool C bid in the 2010 season.

[Ralph Turner]

With the announcement that the SLIAC is resuming football and accepting the affiliation of the UMAC schools, let's look at the changes that have occurred since this was posted last October.  A lot of stuff has happened.  (Corrections are appreciated.)

Whither Pool B--2011--Second look June 2006

There has been tremendous consolidation in D3 to take advantage of the Pool system of playoffs.  The Pools have provided a mechanism for equal access to every D3 Student athlete.  It is not the "Best 32".  That is another debate that has raged for 6+ years.  At least a 9-1 Hardin Simmons, whose only loss was to a D2, is no longer staying home as in 1998.

This consolidation into conferences is impacting the Pool B schools.  From published reports and some well-founded speculation, we can imagine where Pool B will be in 2011.  Of course, something bizarre may happen and the 2011 playoffs will no longer resemble the 2005 playoffs.  But let's look at the moves that are occurring by then and assume that these moves are permanent.

North Region:  2 teams Pool B Remain.  Four to Pool A.

UAA (U Chicago and CWRU) has announced their joint scheduling arrangement with the NCAC, but this does not alter the Pool B status of the UAA.

The "UMAC 4" affiliates include:

Rockford from the Northern Illinois-Iowa Conference which has announced its merger with the Lake Michigan Conference and will play by 2008 in the newly created Northern Athletics Conference (NAthCon) in Fall 2008 and have the Pool A by Fall 2010.  I have not seen to which Evaluation Region the NAthCon will be assigned.

Blackburn, Principia and Westminster MO (SLAIC) begin playing in the reconstituted SLIAC in Fall 2008 and should have the Pool A in 2010.  More about this in the West Region discussion.

With the IBC disbanding in the Lake Michigan-NIIC merger, the new conference has taken the name Northern Athletics Conference (NAthcon).  The NAthCon will have 8 football-playing members: Aurora, Benedictine, Concordia IL, Concordia WI and Lakeland from the IBFC.  Maranatha Baptist and Rockford are playing in the current UMAC.  Finally, Wisconsin Lutheran is currently a MIAA affiliate.

Here are the North Region Pool A conference with members in parentheses by 2011.  CCIW (8 ). HCAC (8 with RHIT joining), NCAC (10), OAC (10) MIAA (7 with Tri-State on board and Wisconsin Lutheran returning to the NAthCon in 2008), and NAthCon (8 ).


By 2011, I anticipate 6 Pool A conferences with 51 members in the North Region. 

The remaining North Region Pool B schools are the UAA's UChicago and CWRU.  I project a total of 53 schools in the North Evaluation Region.

East Region:  6 Pool B Teams Remain. Two to Pool A.

Buffalo State leaves the ACFC for the NJAC next year.
Plymouth St moves to the NEFC which also adds Coast Guard.

SUNY-Maritime begins playing a varsity schedule in 2006 and Provisional SUNY-Morrisville scheduled to be full member in Fall 2010.  Both are investigating conference affiliations.

Becker, Husson and Mount Ida were members of the North Atlantic Conference (NAC) in 2005-06.  Mount Ida has announced its departure to the GNAC.  Maine Maritime from the New England FC Bogan is also a member of the NAC.  Since only 4 core members are required for a conference to sponsor a sport (cf. Liberty League), an aggressive NAC could have added 3 more affiliates by Fall 2009 and be Pool A by Fall 2011.  This tactic is no longer possible, until another NAC school adds football.

The SUNY might have 4 core members by Fall 2011, Cortland, Buffalo, Brockport  and a Morrisville.  This might be at the expense of the NJAC, but I do not anticipate any moves in the next few years creating more Pool B schools.  Were I the NJAC, I would invite Brockport and Morrisville tomorrow.  Some of the NJAC members are having trouble filling 10-game schedules as it is.

Here are the East Region Pool A Conferences with the members in parentheses. Empire 8 (7), Liberty League (8 with migration of the Coast Guard to the NEFC but the addition of Susquehanna from the MAC), MAC (8 after losing Susquehanna, to the LL and Moravian and Juniata to the Centennial Conference), NJAC (8 with migration of Buffalo State from the ACFC) and NEFC (16 with the addition of Plymouth St and Coast Guard).  The East Region is still very unstable compared to the changes in the West and the North Regions.


By 2011, I anticipate 5 Pool A conferences with 47 members in the East Region.

The remaining 6 East Region Pool B teams: Brockport St, SUNY Maritime, SUNY Morrisville, Becker, Husson and Mount Ida.  I project a total of 53 schools in the East Evaluation Region.

[Ralph Turner]

West Region: 2 Remain. Ten to Pool A.

Northwest Conference--Lewis & Clark appears to have re-committed to football and to the Northwest Conference.  (The NWC is headed for Pool A status with the affiliation of Menlo.  (Also, there have been rumors of George Fox and Pacific OR adding football.)  Assuming that L&C stays on course with its football program,  the Northwest Conference will be Pool A in Fall 2008.

Colorado College has been accepted into the SCAC.

The Upper Midwest AC is an old NAIA conference that has all of its members as either full or provisional.  The UMAC football teams have been accepted as SLIAC affiliates (D3football.com front page--Jun 20, 2006).  (Current UMAC affiliate (non-D3) Trinity Bible College was not invited.) By 2009, the UMAC will have 4 full football-playing members (Crown, Martin Luther, MN-Morris and Northwestern WI) that will form the Northern Division plus Principia.  (Why Principia from just north of St Louis went to the northern division and not Eureka IL or Westminster MO is beyond me.)  The Southern Division will include football-playing SLIAC members Blackburn, Greenville, MacMurray, Westminster MO and new prospect Eureka which is coming from the NIIC.

This new 10-member SLIAC will likely have Pool A status by 2010.  As a result, all of these Pool B's will move to Pool A.  (For this discussion, I have considered the SLIAC as a West Region Conference and the NAthCon a North Region Conference.  (The NCAA might reverse that assignment.  You know, put the Northern Athletics Conference in the West Region,  ) and vice versa.)

Here are the West Region Pool A Conferences with members in parentheses:  Iowa IAC (9), Midwest (10 ), Minnesota IAC (9), Northwest Conference (7), SCIAC (7), SLIAC (10), WIAC (8 ).

By 2011, I anticipate 7 Pool A conferences with 60 members in the West Region.

The remaining two West Region Pool B schools will be Chapman, MIAC prodigal Macalester.  (Two others may be Nebraska Wesleyan, which has not played enough D3 games to qualify for playoff consideration in years, and maybe Doane NE, which has begun the exploratory phase of joining D3 are also in the region.)  I project a total of 62 schools in the West Evaulation Region.

[Ralph Turner]

South Region:  7 Remain. Eight to Pool A.

The Presidents AC has begun to add football-playing schools.  Thomas More joined last spring.  St Vincent's announced it is adding football, going thru the NCAA Provisional status and joining the Pres AC.  Likewise for Geneva which will begin the provisional status in 2007-08.  They can be a full member in 2011.  The Pres AC will have 9 teams by 2011, seven of whom are current Pool B's.

Huntingdon has finished in its third year and LaGrange will start next year.  Let's assume that they do not find a Pool A conference by 2011, but rather fill out the schedules of the SCAC, ASC and USAC members.

UAA members Wash St Louis and Carnegie Mellon are likely to remain in Pool B.  They have a contract to fill their schedules with NCAC opponents.

The ACFC remains vulnerable.  Wesley is close to the NJAC.  Frostburg and Salisbury may have trouble finding a schedule if the conferences on the seaboard start expanding to the exclusion of non-conference schedules.  Neither fate, Pool A or Pool B would surprise me concerning these schools.  Brockport is "in the same boat", and the NCAA bylaws will not permit the ACFC to move to Pool A status as the IBC and NEFC are.

Here are the South Region Pool A conferences with members in parentheses.  ASC (9 with the loss of Austin College to the SCAC), Centennial (9 with addition of Juniata and Moravian from the MAC in 2007), ODAC (7), Presidents AC (9), SCAC (9 with AC replacing RHIT and the addition of West Region Independent Colorado College in 2007 and Birmingham Southern, which should complete provisional status by fall 2011), and USAC (8 ).

By 2011, I anticipate 6 Pool A conferences with 51 members in the South Region.

The seven remaining Pool B schools are Wash StL, Carnegie Mellon, Huntingdon, LaGrange, Wesley, Frostburg St and Salisbury.  I project a total of 58 schools in the South Evaluation Region.

[Ralph Turner]

According to the 2005 Handbook rules, in 2011 the 24 Pool A conferences comprised of 209 schools will give an access ratio of 1:8.71.

Fifteen Pool B schools divided by the 8.71 access ratio gives 1.722 bids, which is truncated to 1 Pool B bid.  This leaves 7 Pool C bids in 2011.

Pool B will still have plenty of bids between now and 2011.

The conferences moving to Pool A by year include:

2006-- (no significant changes from 2005; 4 bids)
2007-- the 7-member Presidents AC.  (Maybe only 3 Pool B bids)
2008-- the 7-member Northwest Conference.  Pool B picks up the 8 members of the IBFC as that Pool A conference is disbanded. (Maybe only 3 Pool B bids).
2010-- the SLIAC and its 10 members move from Pool B to Pool A/C.
2010-- the Northern Athletics Conference will move its 8 members to Pool A.  These moves impact the access ratio, in addition to the new members that have completed provisional status.  There may be only 2 or 1 Pool B bid in 2010.
2011-- I project only 1 Pool B bid, as provisional members such as Saint Vincent and Geneva in the Pres AC, the SLIAC/UMAC provisionals and BSC in the SCAC complete the process and are counted as Pool A members.

If the UAA members do not earn a bid in the 2008 or 2009 window, then I seriously wonder if the UAA will earn a Pool B bid until the Pools system is redefined.  The UAA may benefit from the strong Pool B schools such as Brockport St, Salisbury, Wesley or even Huntingdon or LaGrange moving into a conference.

[AUPepBand]

I applaud you for attempting to sort all of this out. I don't even begin to understand it all. It's a shame the Alfred Saxons ended up 2005 in that wading pool just outside the door to the NCAA Playoffs. 'Tis a shame to be left to wade when you were looking forward to swimming.....but no worries, Kickoff 2006 is coming soon!
...On Saxon Warriors, o'er every adversity!

[Ralph Turner]

The biggest Pool B win that I saw was Salisbury's South Region win over W&J.

[Ralph Turner]

D3 football Handbook came out today.

21 Pool A bids
4 Pool B bids
7 Pool C bids.

javascript:goToURL('http://www.ncaa.org/library/handbooks/football/2006/2006_d3_football_handbook.pdf');

(That link may not work for everyone. )

[K-Mack]

Ralph,
you're a machine. Fine work.

[Ralph Turner]

Wesley at Huntingdon this week may be the GOTW for Pool B.

W&J is off.

Whitworth is hosting Azusa Pacific.
Willamette at Linfield is not quite as significant on a national level this year.

Brockport must catch an Ithaca Bomber team that is smarting from the loss to SJF.

[Ralph Turner]

October 1st!  The playoffs start next month!

Five weeks completed, and we are already getting some separation in Pool B.

The Handbook says that we shall have 4 Pool B bids.

These are my guesses now.  (Overall Record and In-Region record)

1)  Wesley --  (4-0/3-0) South Region Champion last year.  Key wins over Waynesburg and Huntingdon.  Still has the remainder ACFC play and can finish with a South Region record of 5-0.
2)  Whitworth -- (4-0/3-0) Nice win over UW-Stout.  Seems to be the front runner in the NWC.  Full NWC schedule to play.  Can finish West Region at 9-0.
3)  W&J --  (3-1/2-1)  Key loss to Salisbury, but W&J may run the Pres AC to give a South Region record of 8-1.
4)  Linfield -- (1-2/1-1)  Plays only 7 in-region games.  Key loss was (In-Region) to HSU.  Can run the NWC table and get a bid, and have a West Region record of 6-1.  Otherwise on the bubble at 5-2 with a loss to Whitworth.  Had Linfield won the HSU game, then they would have had a key in-region win!  Props to Linfield for scheduling HSU.  Nothing ventured, nothing gained!  "Leave no doubt!  Win them all!"

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bubble teams;

T5)  Thiel (3-2/2-1)  Needs to run the Pres AC table to earn a Pool B bid. Key loss to Alfred.  Would have greatly helped their chances by a win over Alfred! Can run the Pres AC table (including W&J and Waynesburg) to finish South Region at 7-1. 
T5)  Carnegie Mellon (5-0/4-0)  A tip of the hat to CWRU70 who caught my oversight!  The last UAA team to get a Pool B was Washington MO back in 1999.  
7)  Huntingdon (3-2/3-1)  Loss to Wesley may not hurt too badly.  Loss to Ithaca is non-region.  Must defeat Trinity at home this weekend and then win the other 2 South Region Games (Thomas More and LaGrange) to finish with a South Region record of 6-1.  We are going on won-loss percentages now!  Probably needs only one bid going to the NWC and Pres AC teams to make it in.
8 )  Chapman (2-1/2-1)  Can Chapman "run the SCIAC" and finish with a West Region record of 8-1?  Key loss?  Menlo in the first game.  Real dark horse here.
9)  Rockford (4-1/4-0)  What if Rockford defeated Principia, Blackburn and Colorado College to finish 7-0 in-Region?  Would they have the "paper criteria" to earn a Pool B?  For competeness sake, I will keep them on the radar.  Wow!  When was the last time that Colorado College was in a "meaningful" (Pool B) game?  (Colorado College goes to the SCAC next year.)

Off the bubble--

Brockport State (2-2/0-2)  Games with Wesley, Salisbury, Frostburg and NNA do not count as in-region.  Morrisville State is first year provisional so that game doesn't count towards "in-region" until 2008.  Has tough games against SJF and Springfield left.

Salisbury (2-3/1-2)  Has tough game with Wesley, plus Widener and Frostburg left.  Probably cannot get a high enough in-region winning percentage

Waynesburg (2-3/2-3)  Can run the Pres AC, get the Rings (as Pres AC Champions at 6-0), but will miss the playoffs at 7-3 In-Region.  Key losses for Pool B: Wesley, Wooster, Shenandoah.  They have to be looking forward to Pool A!


This should be the last season for the Presidents AC to participate in Pool B.  The conference may be reassigned to Pool A for all sports in August 2007.  The Northwest Conference should be a Pool A football conference in 2008.

[ADL70]

Ralph -Am I missing the reason you do not mention 5-0/4-0 Carnegie Mellon?

[Ralph Turner]

Ralph -Am I missing the reason you do not mention 5-0/4-0 Carnegie Mellon?

Ooooohhhh!  My Bad!  Except that the last UAA team to get a Pool B bid was back in the 20th Century! 

Wow!  It might happen! Run the UAA and then don't slip up against Bethany or especially Thiel (which still might have Pool B aspirations themselves).

I will slot Carnegie Mellon in a tie for 5th with Thiel.

Thanks for catching that!

[ADL70]

The toughest part of your scenario for CMU might be running the UAA.  I admit they have yet to be tested, but they took Thiel to OT last year when Thiel seemed to have a better team than this year, and CMU one not as good as this year's.

CMU had some playoff teams from 78-90. Even had a couple wins.