Pool B

[wally_wabash]

I have a question. As Pat mentioned, Overall D-III SOS is primary criteria. Is Overall D-III record primary criteria? The reason I ask is because unless I missed something Chicago is still undefeated in regional play. Rhodes is in the SAA, South Region, and Administrative Region 3. Chicago is in the UAA (until 2015? when they join the SAA), North Region, and Adminsitrative Region 4.

I still wouldn't put Chicago in the top 3 of Pool B but just curious. Also history doesn't exactly bode well for a UAA team in this situation. Case Western Reserve went 9-0 in region in 2011(?) and lost to Rochester out of region and missed the Pool B bid.

I believe that the primary criteria still talks about in-region win-loss percentage, however, in football at least, I would say that it seems like the RACs and the national committee look at all of the D3 results.  With only 10 or sometimes 9 games to use to differentiate teams, it's hard to justify tossing out a result just because it didn't meet one of the definitions of "in-region". 

Case in point is the the CWRU situation that you bring up.  That particular instance had a secondary circumstance in that I believe Rochester was a common opponent with St. John Fisher and SJF got into the field that season despite two losses.  Results vs. common opponents are a criteria (secondary I believe) even if that opponent's record isn't factored into the SOS math. 

Very interesting.  In the WIAC you currently have 3 undefeated teams; UW-Whitewater, Oshkosh, and Platteville.  Although UWW has been a perenial power, they lost a step last year and Oshkosh won the conference.  Platteville was projected to be the conference winner this year at the beginning of the season.   I do believe the WIAC, due to strength of conference and strength of schedule has a great chance of getting two into the post season, it will be a dog fight for the two spots.  We could very easily have a 3 way tie with all of them tied at 9-1 for the Conference Championship and the AQ.

WarhawkDad

I picked Whitewater as the league champion because I think they are playing just a touch better than Oshkosh or Platteville.  After the WUStl scare, it's been beatemdown mode for the Warhawks.  But really ou can mix and match there...if I were to generalize the predictions here I would say that you'll get one of W, O, or P as an automatic qualifier and then whichever of the other two finish with one loss (probably the one that won the h2h matchup).  If they all finish with one loss, I think it gets tricky for that third team because as soon as you wedge somebody like PLU or Bethel or Moorhead inbetween the UW schools in the regional rankings, you're pretty much doomed as far as selection goes.  It's tough to imagine a scenario where any more than two teams from one region get Pool C selections. 

Generally, those are the five conferences that I'd expect to get serious Pool C consideration if they have a obvious (1-loss) runner-up.  I'd predict it'll be Willamette or Pacific Lutheran 'on the discussion board' at 8-1 from the NWC (rather than Pacific - though we'll see). I understand how you are approaching this analysis from a slightly different angle (some prediction, but lots of 'as of now'). Nice job!

Totally agree, d-train.  I like PLU to run this thing out and eventually be a slam dunk for selection, but we have to get there first.  Unfortunately, their reward is going to be a trip back to Linfield, but what can you do. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

I have a question. As Pat mentioned, Overall D-III SOS is primary criteria. Is Overall D-III record primary criteria? The reason I ask is because unless I missed something Chicago is still undefeated in regional play. Rhodes is in the SAA, South Region, and Administrative Region 3. Chicago is in the UAA (until 2015? when they join the SAA), North Region, and Adminsitrative Region 4.

I still wouldn't put Chicago in the top 3 of Pool B but just curious. Also history doesn't exactly bode well for a UAA team in this situation. Case Western Reserve went 9-0 in region in 2011(?) and lost to Rochester out of region and missed the Pool B bid.

I believe that the primary criteria still talks about in-region win-loss percentage, however, in football at least, I would say that it seems like the RACs and the national committee look at all of the D3 results.  With only 10 or sometimes 9 games to use to differentiate teams, it's hard to justify tossing out a result just because it didn't meet one of the definitions of "in-region". 

Case in point is the the CWRU situation that you bring up.  That particular instance had a secondary circumstance in that I believe Rochester was a common opponent with St. John Fisher and SJF got into the field that season despite two losses.  Results vs. common opponents are a criteria (secondary I believe) even if that opponent's record isn't factored into the SOS math. 

Case in point?  Really?  How punny.

Good example, though.

Very interesting.  In the WIAC you currently have 3 undefeated teams; UW-Whitewater, Oshkosh, and Platteville.  Although UWW has been a perenial power, they lost a step last year and Oshkosh won the conference.  Platteville was projected to be the conference winner this year at the beginning of the season.   I do believe the WIAC, due to strength of conference and strength of schedule has a great chance of getting two into the post season, it will be a dog fight for the two spots.  We could very easily have a 3 way tie with all of them tied at 9-1 for the Conference Championship and the AQ.

WarhawkDad

I picked Whitewater as the league champion because I think they are playing just a touch better than Oshkosh or Platteville.  After the WUStl scare, it's been beatemdown mode for the Warhawks.  But really ou can mix and match there...if I were to generalize the predictions here I would say that you'll get one of W, O, or P as an automatic qualifier and then whichever of the other two finish with one loss (probably the one that won the h2h matchup).  If they all finish with one loss, I think it gets tricky for that third team because as soon as you wedge somebody like PLU or Bethel or Moorhead inbetween the UW schools in the regional rankings, you're pretty much doomed as far as selection goes.  It's tough to imagine a scenario where any more than two teams from one region get Pool C selections. 

I also can't help but wonder if the WIAC will "eat itself" and the runner-up(s) will both end up with more than one loss.  We're taking it for granted that UWW, UWO, and UWP won't lose to anyone else in the WIAC but it's happened before...in 2011 I was really excited to see whether the committee would put in an 8-2 Oshkosh team that had two respectable losses to Mount Union and UWW in the midst of their All-Purple-Every-Year-Stagg streak, which seemed like a strong case for inclusion of an 8-2 team if there ever was one...only for them to lose to LaCrosse the next week.

[mck99]

Based on Oct. 14 podcast, eight teams for three Pool B spots:

Wesley - 5-1 record, No. 2 SOS
Washington U. - 4-2 record, No. 5 SOS
Framingham State - 5-1 record, No. 29 SOS
Centre - 4-1 record, 32 SOS
Millsaps - 5-0 record, 84 SOS
Rhodes - 5-1 record, No. 99 SOS
Chicago - 4-1 record, 177 SOS
Texas Lutheran - 4-0 record, 209 SOS

[wally_wabash]

Based on Oct. 14 podcast, eight teams for three Pool B spots:

Wesley - 5-1 record, No. 2 SOS
Washington U. - 4-2 record, No. 5 SOS
Framingham State - 5-1 record, No. 29 SOS
Centre - 4-1 record, 32 SOS
Millsaps - 5-0 record, 84 SOS
Rhodes - 5-1 record, No. 99 SOS
Chicago - 4-1 record, 177 SOS
Texas Lutheran - 4-0 record, 209 SOS

I have admittedly not listend to the podcast (yet), but I identified 7 teams this morning for the Pool B spots...the above minus Washington.  I'm not considering 2-loss teams at this point, but looking at what's coming for TLU, Centre, Millsaps, Rhodes, and Framingham State, 2 losses may well be in play by the time we get to week 11. 

[wally_wabash]

And with that said, here is my playoff projection through the games of 10/12:

Pool A:

League	Team
ASC	UMHB
CC	Johns Hopkins
CCIW	North Central
ECFC	Gallaudet
E8	St. John Fisher
HCAC	Franklin
IIAC	Coe
LL	Hobart
MAC	Lebanon Valley
MIAC	Bethel
MWC	Illinois College
MIAA	Adrian
NACC	Concordia (Wis.)
NCAC	Wabash
NEFC	Salve Regina
NJAC	SUNY-Cortland
NWC	Linfield
OAC	Mount Union
ODAC	Hampden-Sydney
PAC	Washington & Jefferson
SCIAC	Redlands
UMAC	Greenville
USAC	Huntingdon
WIAC	UW-Whitewater

I've bolded changes from last week.  Redlands knocking off Cal Lutheran puts them at the top of the SCIAC pecking order and also takes Cal Luterhan out of the postseason conversation barring some serious help to win their league.  Rowan's loss takes them out of the top spot in the NJAC and also makes the NJAC a one-bid league.  Exit Lycoming, enter Lebanon Valley in a crazy looking MAC. 

Ok, Pool B.  My picks are, in order:
Wesley (5-1, 0.751 SOS)
Millsaps (5-0, 0.530 SOS)
Texas Lutheran (4-0, 0.383 SOS)

Now, lurking here are Framingham State and Centre who have one loss each and big SOS numbers.  If you wanted to take either of those and not Texas Lutheran, you probably could.  As mentioned, Texas Lutheran has some tough ASC games coming up and will get a boost to their SOS, but may well be vulnerable to a loss or two which jeopardizes their shot here.  Conspiracy theorists get those trumpets up...if not TLU, then somebody is going to have to fly to UMHB in round 1.  Ultimately, I think TLU is going to get knocked out here, but for now they are my pick (and not because they can bus to UMHB...just having fun there). 

Pool C in order or selection:
Wheaton (5-0, 0.608 SOS)
UW-Platteville (5-0, 0.389 SOS)
Concordia-Moorhead (4-1, 0.576 SOS)
Hartwick (4-1, 0.659 SOS)
John Carroll (5-0, 0.490 SOS)

This is hard because we've got undefeated teams here that obviously won't be in Pool C if they wind up undefeated and quite possibly wouldn't be on this list if they carried a loss.  But for now, it is what it is. 

Wheaton comes off first because they have a giant SOS- best amongst the zero loss teams.  Then I took Platteville despite a downer SOS because...well, I don't know exactly.  With C-M's loss, a WIAC runner-up should be the right pick and these SOS's for the WIAC are brutal because the top teams haven't played each other yet.  They will get much better and if either UW-O, P, or W wind up with 1 loss and not in Pool A, then they're getting in.  Then I took C-M.  The Cobbers have a great SOS and they have a win over St. Johns (who has a win over St. Thomas).  St. Thomas can obviously throw the MIAC along with this projection into serious chaos with a win over Bethel this Saturday.  Next off is Hartwick out of the East.  The Hawks have an SOS here that is too big to ignore.  And the final team off here is John Carroll.  John Carroll will be served well by that St. Norbert contribution to their SOS..and with games left with Heidelberg and Mount Union, the Streaks are going to end with a pretty good SOS I believe.  If they can split those games, they will be a strong candidate for at-large selection. 

Left on the board are Ursinus (5-0, 0.482), Pacific (5-0, 0.500), Framingham State (5-1, 0.595).  I did bring Framingham State over from Pool B onto the East tableau...again, SOS is too much to ignore here and the East has already totally cannibalized itself.  I would have Witt next up in the North at the moment. 

And that's what I've got for this week.

[cawcdad]

I would tend to agree with Redlands from the SCIAC, but Chapman is undefeated on the season and has Redlands at home in two weeks. Could shake the pecking order up.

[ExTartanPlayer]

wally: one thing I don't have an answer for just yet, but could affect this, is the possibility of MWC co-champions that will not actually face one another.  I'm not sure how the tie is broken, but Illinois College and St. Norbert both have a chance to win out and finish undefeated in conference play (SN lost to John Carroll to open the season; that is the only loss for either team).  Suppose that St. Norbert gets the Pool A through whatever the tiebreaker is (unlikely if it's point differential, as they've won a few close ones while IC is blowing people out); this would leave Illinois College as a 10-0 conference co-champion without a Pool A bid.  Might not even matter by the end of the season, but if it turns out IC is in Pool C, one has to imagine that they'll go as the only undefeated team in C, correct?  Since everyone else in C will have a loss by then...

I know you're projecting based on "if the season ended today" - just an interesting possible wrench in the system that could come up.

[wally_wabash]

wally: one thing I don't have an answer for just yet, but could affect this, is the possibility of MWC co-champions that will not actually face one another.  I'm not sure how the tie is broken, but Illinois College and St. Norbert both have a chance to win out and finish undefeated in conference play (SN lost to John Carroll to open the season; that is the only loss for either team).  Suppose that St. Norbert gets the Pool A through whatever the tiebreaker is (unlikely if it's point differential, as they've won a few close ones while IC is blowing people out); this would leave Illinois College as a 10-0 conference co-champion without a Pool A bid.  Might not even matter by the end of the season, but if it turns out IC is in Pool C, one has to imagine that they'll go as the only undefeated team in C, correct?  Since everyone else in C will have a loss by then...

I know you're projecting based on "if the season ended today" - just an interesting possible wrench in the system that could come up.

Yeah, that's a weird scenario.  Totally depends on where the West region RAC sticks Illinois College.  If they get placed behind a WIAC runner up with one loss and maybe PLU and maybe a single-loss MIAC team (for instance if St. Thomas wins out and claims the MIAC AQ), then you could totally see the Blue Boys get left out at 10-0.  That is IF the RAC placed them behind those one-loss teams...which seems really reasonable.  There would be a lot of salty people up north if IC got in and 9-1 Bethel didn't or 9-1 Oshkosh didn't. 

[AO]

There would be a lot of salty people up north if IC got in and 9-1 Bethel didn't or 9-1 Oshkosh didn't.

I'm also prepared to be salty if a 8-2 St. Thomas isn't in before IC with a better SOS and a win over regionally ranked Concordia.  If you're in a poor conference that plays 9 conference games and want to get a pool C bid, don't play Hanover with your lone non-conference game.

[ExTartanPlayer]

There would be a lot of salty people up north if IC got in and 9-1 Bethel didn't or 9-1 Oshkosh didn't.

I'm also prepared to be salty if a 8-2 St. Thomas isn't in before IC with a better SOS and a win over regionally ranked Concordia.  If you're in a poor conference that plays 9 conference games and want to get a pool C bid, don't play Hanover with your lone non-conference game.

If you're in ANY conference and want to get a Pool C bid, maybe don't lose two conference games?

I'm a pretty firm believer that undefeated teams should get in regardless of their conference.  Once the schedule is fixed, it's fixed.  No reason to penalize the kids on the Illinois College team for going undefeated.  In your hypothetical scenario, an 8-2 St. Thomas had/has a chance to win their way into the tournament and didn't do it (not once, but twice losing in games that would have controlled their destiny), while a 10-0 Illinois College would be denied that opportunity simply because of a scheduling quirk that left the two best teams in the conference from meeting.

An 8-2 St. Thomas isn't getting any bleeding-heart sympathy from me.  The playoffs aren't an "everyone gets a trophy" thing.  I would actually be fine if we had nothing but autobids and some sort of Pool B for teams from non-AQ conferences, but it makes more sense to have a round number of 32 for the field and it's nice to let exceptionally strong runners-up into the tournament.

I'm not sure if we'll have to worry about this because I don't know the MWC tiebreaker; it could be that 10-0 Illinois College gets the auto-bid and nobody has to worry about this at all.

[AO]

There would be a lot of salty people up north if IC got in and 9-1 Bethel didn't or 9-1 Oshkosh didn't.

I'm also prepared to be salty if a 8-2 St. Thomas isn't in before IC with a better SOS and a win over regionally ranked Concordia.  If you're in a poor conference that plays 9 conference games and want to get a pool C bid, don't play Hanover with your lone non-conference game.

If you're in ANY conference and want to get a Pool C bid, maybe don't lose two conference games?

Two games that Illinois College would lose by 40.  The RACs have weighed strength of schedule more heavily than win pct in recent years.

[AO]

I'm a pretty firm believer that undefeated teams should get in regardless of their conference.  Once the schedule is fixed, it's fixed.  No reason to penalize the kids on the Illinois College team for going undefeated.  In your hypothetical scenario, an 8-2 St. Thomas had/has a chance to win their way into the tournament and didn't do it (not once, but twice losing in games that would have controlled their destiny), while a 10-0 Illinois College would be denied that opportunity simply because of a scheduling quirk that left the two best teams in the conference from meeting.

An 8-2 St. Thomas isn't getting any bleeding-heart sympathy from me.  The playoffs aren't an "everyone gets a trophy" thing.  I would actually be fine if we had nothing but autobids and some sort of Pool B for teams from non-AQ conferences, but it makes more sense to have a round number of 32 for the field and it's nice to let exceptionally strong runners-up into the tournament.

The schedule is fixed for the MIAC teams too.  If the Strength of Schedule numbers and regionally ranked wins make it obvious who the better team is, select that team.  This wouldn't be the first time an unbeaten team missed the playoffs. 

[wally_wabash]

There would be a lot of salty people up north if IC got in and 9-1 Bethel didn't or 9-1 Oshkosh didn't.

I'm also prepared to be salty if a 8-2 St. Thomas isn't in before IC with a better SOS and a win over regionally ranked Concordia.  If you're in a poor conference that plays 9 conference games and want to get a pool C bid, don't play Hanover with your lone non-conference game.

I don't know why we have to pick on teams that play Hanover in the non-league schedule.  Seems like a totally reasonable decision to me. 

Right now, St. Thomas and Illinois College have similar SOSs (0.523 for STT, 0.514 for IC).  Not nearly a large enough difference to overcome the difference in win percentage.  The reality for the Tommies is that they can't lose any more games.  There just isn't room for 2-loss teams with only 5 bids available.  And that's not even an IC thing...St. Thomas with two losses is going to be buried behind a WIAC runner up, PLU, St. Johns (as long as St. Johns keeps winning), and yes, probably Illinois College as distasteful as that might be.  And that's just in the West region.  Then plug in single loss teams from other regions, of which there will be a handful, and St. Thomas has basically zero chance at the postseason by way of at-large invitation. 

I'm a pretty firm believer that undefeated teams should get in regardless of their conference.  Once the schedule is fixed, it's fixed.  No reason to penalize the kids on the Illinois College team for going undefeated.  In your hypothetical scenario, an 8-2 St. Thomas had/has a chance to win their way into the tournament and didn't do it (not once, but twice losing in games that would have controlled their destiny), while a 10-0 Illinois College would be denied that opportunity simply because of a scheduling quirk that left the two best teams in the conference from meeting.

An 8-2 St. Thomas isn't getting any bleeding-heart sympathy from me.  The playoffs aren't an "everyone gets a trophy" thing.  I would actually be fine if we had nothing but autobids and some sort of Pool B for teams from non-AQ conferences, but it makes more sense to have a round number of 32 for the field and it's nice to let exceptionally strong runners-up into the tournament.

The schedule is fixed for the MIAC teams too.  If the Strength of Schedule numbers and regionally ranked wins make it obvious who the better team is, select that team.  This wouldn't be the first time an unbeaten team missed the playoffs.  

This is false.  In the AQ era and certainly since the field expanded to 32 teams (and probably even in the 28 team era) an undefeated team has NOT been left out.  I don't think Illinois College would be the first, but I could definitely see an argument for them getting caught behind some other West region teams in the regional rankings (which would probably lead to them being left out).  But not behind a 2-loss team.  That's not going to happen. 

[AO]

Right now, St. Thomas and Illinois College have similar SOSs (0.523 for STT, 0.514 for IC).  Not nearly a large enough difference to overcome the difference in win percentage.  The reality for the Tommies is that they can't lose any more games.  There just isn't room for 2-loss teams with only 5 bids available.  And that's not even an IC thing...St. Thomas with two losses is going to be buried behind a WIAC runner up, PLU, St. Johns (as long as St. Johns keeps winning), and yes, probably Illinois College as distasteful as that might be.  And that's just in the West region.  Then plug in single loss teams from other regions, of which there will be a handful, and St. Thomas has basically zero chance at the postseason by way of at-large invitation. 

St. Thomas' SOS will improve with Bethel, Augsburg and Concordia left on the schedule.  The 2nd place MIAC team will probably have 2 losses and a much higher SOS and better regionally ranked wins than anybody from the MWC and should be ranked higher by these criteria.  Win pct is only as good as the teams you beat.

  This wouldn't be the first time an unbeaten team missed the playoffs.  

This is false.  In the AQ era and certainly since the field expanded to 32 teams (and probably even in the 28 team era) an undefeated team has NOT been left out.  I don't think Illinois College would be the first, but I could definitely see an argument for them getting caught behind some other West region teams in the regional rankings (which would probably lead to them being left out).  But not behind a 2-loss team.  That's not going to happen.

Which is why I didn't limit it to the AQ era.  As ExTartan noted, this shouldn't be a everybody gets a trophy tournament.  Send the best teams with the pool C.  Leave pool A as the sole avenue for the poor teams to go dancing.

[Mr. Ypsi]

The Illinois College scenario is probably a moot point.  According to a post on the MWC board, their tie-break is # of quarters with the lead.  Since St. N has been edging opponents, while IC has been destroying them, I'd assume IC would win such a tie-break (though I haven't checked the box scores to see for sure).