Pool B

[pumkinattack]

With all due respect to the rest of the league and the generic "on any given Saturday/Sunday", if Hobart doesn't run the table they don't have a resume worthy of a playoff team (even if I think they're good enough to go toe to toe with 90% of the field). 

[ExTartanPlayer]

With all due respect to the rest of the league and the generic "on any given Saturday/Sunday", if Hobart doesn't run the table they don't have a resume worthy of a playoff team (even if I think they're good enough to go toe to toe with 90% of the field).

Oh, I know, but I'm saying that's a viable scenario that would put another 1-loss team into Pool C.  Anyone that's a possible two-loss Pool C candidate needs every undefeated favorite to stay undefeated and win their league (creating as many undefeated A's and as few 1-loss runners-up as possible).

[AO]

For comparison...St. Thomas's remaining schedule:

Bethel 5-0
Hamline 2-3
Augsburg 3-2
C-M 4-1
St. Olaf 1-5

Total: 15-10 for St. Thomas...Compared to 9-14 for Illinois College.  So there's some shifting there, but we have to remember that we're in league play now and pretty much every result from here on out is a wash on the OWP.  But keep in mind...Hanover is probably going to win a few games and help IC's OWP as it goes along.  River Falls and Eau Claire though (combined 0-10)...who are they beating?  You might get 2-3 wins max out of those two vs. 7-8 more losses.  In an odd twist, those UW games are really dragging St. Thomas down here. 

But again, this is all gnashing way way out in the hypothetical.  Barring total armageddon beneath the league champions of places like the NWC, the WIAC, the OAC, and the CCIW, there just won't be enough spots to accommodate 2-loss teams in the Pool C.

since conference play is a wash, you have to compare the leagues's non conference record.  The MIAC is likely to be 15-1 at the end of the season.

[wally_wabash]

For comparison...St. Thomas's remaining schedule:

Bethel 5-0
Hamline 2-3
Augsburg 3-2
C-M 4-1
St. Olaf 1-5

Total: 15-10 for St. Thomas...Compared to 9-14 for Illinois College.  So there's some shifting there, but we have to remember that we're in league play now and pretty much every result from here on out is a wash on the OWP.  But keep in mind...Hanover is probably going to win a few games and help IC's OWP as it goes along.  River Falls and Eau Claire though (combined 0-10)...who are they beating?  You might get 2-3 wins max out of those two vs. 7-8 more losses.  In an odd twist, those UW games are really dragging St. Thomas down here. 

But again, this is all gnashing way way out in the hypothetical.  Barring total armageddon beneath the league champions of places like the NWC, the WIAC, the OAC, and the CCIW, there just won't be enough spots to accommodate 2-loss teams in the Pool C.

since conference play is a wash, you have to compare the leagues's non conference record.  The MIAC is likely to be 15-1 at the end of the season.

Yeah...that's fun to do and matters for when ATN ranks the conferences, but it is not a tournament selection criteria.  That 15-1 will be reflected in the OWP portion of the calculus and is part of why St. Thomas will have a marginally better SOS than Illinois College.  But those matching 0-5's from River Falls and Eau Claire are killer.  Doesn't matter what league you're in, 0-5 stinks.  0-5 twice stinks twice as much. 

[AO]

For comparison...St. Thomas's remaining schedule:

Bethel 5-0
Hamline 2-3
Augsburg 3-2
C-M 4-1
St. Olaf 1-5

Total: 15-10 for St. Thomas...Compared to 9-14 for Illinois College.  So there's some shifting there, but we have to remember that we're in league play now and pretty much every result from here on out is a wash on the OWP.  But keep in mind...Hanover is probably going to win a few games and help IC's OWP as it goes along.  River Falls and Eau Claire though (combined 0-10)...who are they beating?  You might get 2-3 wins max out of those two vs. 7-8 more losses.  In an odd twist, those UW games are really dragging St. Thomas down here. 

But again, this is all gnashing way way out in the hypothetical.  Barring total armageddon beneath the league champions of places like the NWC, the WIAC, the OAC, and the CCIW, there just won't be enough spots to accommodate 2-loss teams in the Pool C.

since conference play is a wash, you have to compare the leagues's non conference record.  The MIAC is likely to be 15-1 at the end of the season.

Yeah...that's fun to do and matters for when ATN ranks the conferences, but it is not a tournament selection criteria.  That 15-1 will be reflected in the OWP portion of the calculus and is part of why St. Thomas will have a marginally better SOS than Illinois College.  But those matching 0-5's from River Falls and Eau Claire are killer.  Doesn't matter what league you're in, 0-5 stinks.  0-5 twice stinks twice as much.

not all 0-5s are created equal since OOWP is also a consideration.  This also isn't just about the Tommies.  Bethel could lose to the Tommies and Johnnies and their OWP would be much better with Wartburg as one of their non-conference games. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

Wesley loses to Rowan. They may still be one of the three best Pool B teams "qualitatively" but it'll be hard to put in a team with only a 4-2 D3 record (especially since Rowan, while a fine team, is not the power that MHB is and that loss is not easily forgiven when comparing to other 8-2 teams.

[jknezek]

Wesley loses to Rowan. They may still be one of the three best Pool B teams "qualitatively" but it'll be hard to put in a team with only a 4-2 D3 record (especially since Rowan, while a fine team, is not the power that MHB is and that loss is not easily forgiven when comparing to other 8-2 teams.

Wesley can still go 5-2 (D3), they have Alfred State for the last game of the year. But yes, I think Wesley is in trouble and posted on the Independent board. It'll be interesting as they will own wins over the possible E8 and USASC champs (Salisbury and Huntingdon). Better hope those two teams keep winning and Rowan goes on a run from here. Widener also still has a shot in the MAC, but it is a long shot.

[wdelsean]

Pool B - After Week 6 (listed by D3football.com's Regional Rankings) - feel free to correct me

SOS, Team, Full D3 Record, Wins, D3 Games remaining

2 Wesley 4-2  (Widener, Huntingdon, Birm-Southern, Salisbury) - NO FULL D3 GAMES LEFT
10 WashU 4-2 (Rhodes, Centre, Berry, Hendrix) - Carn Mellon, CWR, Chicago
23 FraminghamSt 5-1 (Endicott, FitchSt, WCSU, Mass-Dart, WFieldSt) - MassMar, BWaterSt, WorcState, PlymState
43 Millsaps 6-0 (MissColl, LaGrange, Sewanee, Hentrix, Trinity, BirmSth) - Berry, Centre, Rhodes
56 Centre 5-1 (Bethany, Rose-Hulman, WashLee, WashU, Berry) - Rhodes, Hendrix, Millsaps, BirmSth
121 Rhodes 4-1 (Austin, Berry, Chicago, Sewanee) - Centre, BSC, Hendrix, Millsaps
181 Chicago 5-1 (Beloit, ConcChicago, Elmhurst, Kalamazoo, Maclester) - Pacific, CWE, CarnMell, WashU
223 Tex Lutheran 5-0 (SWestern, Trinity, ETBU, Austin, SulRoss) - MissColl, LaColl, Hard-Simm, HPayne

Games within teams in the group
Washington U vs. Chicago
Millsaps vs. Centre
Millsaps vs. Rhodes
Centre vs. Rhodes

Quick Analysis from this end:  Texas Lutheran's SOS will go up significantly the next three weeks.  If they lose one, they might like to see that ranking cut in half.  Framingham State's SOS looks to go down, but probably not like a stone.  The strength of victories (aka, how many of your wins are Regionally Ranked Opponents) could end up being the key variable.

[Ralph Turner]

Wow, it is strange not to see a list like the previous post and not kick in the brain editing "app" that tries to figure out who is an in-region opponent and who is not.

[wdelsean]

I'm certainly glad the only headache for the chart now is "Full Division III".  I think I fully excluded the teams that don't meet that.  Corrections always welcomed though.

[mck99]

Updated Pool B (as of Oct. 27, 2013)

Wesley - 6-2 record, No. 1 SOS
Washington U. - 5-2 record, No. 23 SOS
Framingham State - 6-1 record, No. 45 SOS
Centre - 5-2 record, 59 SOS
Millsaps - 7-0 record, 85 SOS
Rhodes - 6-1 record, No. 105 SOS
Chicago - 5-2 record, 153 SOS
Texas Lutheran - 6-0 record, 215 SOS

[Ralph Turner]

Updated Pool B (as of Oct. 27, 2013)

Wesley - 6-2 record, (4-2 vs D3) No. 1 SOS
Washington U. - 5-2 record, No. 23 SOS
Framingham State - 6-1 record, No. 45 SOS
Centre - 5-2 record, 59 SOS
Millsaps - 7-0 record, (6-0 vs D3) 85 SOS
Rhodes - 6-1 record, No. 105 SOS
Chicago - 5-2 record, 153 SOS
Texas Lutheran - 6-0 record, 215 SOS

[wdelsean]

Just updating the the chart from last week with the teams added.   Will make a bigger deal of them once Regional Rankings get into the mix.

SOS, Team, Full D3 Record, Wins, D3 Games remaining

1 Wesley 4-2  (Widener, Huntingdon, Birm-Southern, Salisbury) - NO FULL D3 GAMES LEFT
23  WashU 5-2 (Rhodes, Centre, Berry, Hendrix, Macalester) - CarnMellon, CWR, Chicago
45 FraminghamSt 6-1 (Endicott, FitchSt, WCSU, Mass-Dart, WFieldSt, PlymSt) - MassMar, BWaterSt, WorcState
58 Centre 5-2 (Bethany, Rose-Hulman, WashLee, Berry, Sewanee) -Hendrix, Millsaps, BirmSth
85 Millsaps 6-0 (MissColl, LaGrange, Sewanee, Hentrix, Trinity, BirmSth) - Berry, Centre, Rhodes
100 Rhodes 6-1 (Austin, Clar-Mudd, Berry, Chicago, Sewanee, Centre) - BSC, Hendrix, Millsaps
152 Chicago 5-2 (Beloit, ConcChicago, Elmhurst, Kalamazoo, Maclester) - CWE, CarnMell, WashU
215 Tex Lutheran 6-0 (SWestern, Trinity, ETBU, Austin, SulRoss, MissColl) - LaColl, Hard-Simm, HPayne

(Corrected thanks to ExTartan Player... Appreciate the help.  I'm using this chart during our broadcasts so it might as well be right.)

(Corrected again since I somehow had both WashU and Centre winning their game against each other.  Wins list should be correct now)

[ExTartanPlayer]

Quick correction for you, WashU hasn't beaten CMU yet. That game is next week. WashU is 5-2 though and looking very good for a B spot if they win out.

[wesleydad]

Just updating the the chart from last week with the teams added.   Will make a bigger deal of them once Regional Rankings get into the mix.

SOS, Team, Full D3 Record, Wins, D3 Games remaining

1 Wesley 4-2  (Widener, Huntingdon, Birm-Southern, Salisbury) - NO FULL D3 GAMES LEFT
23  WashU 5-2 (Rhodes, Centre, Berry, Hendrix, CarnMellon) - CWR, Chicago
45 FraminghamSt 6-1 (Endicott, FitchSt, WCSU, Mass-Dart, WFieldSt, PlymSt) - MassMar, BWaterSt, WorcState
58 Centre 5-2 (Bethany, Rose-Hulman, WashLee, WashU, Berry) -Hendrix, Millsaps, BirmSth
85 Millsaps 6-0 (MissColl, LaGrange, Sewanee, Hentrix, Trinity, BirmSth) - Berry, Centre, Rhodes
100 Rhodes 6-1 (Austin, Clar-Mudd, Berry, Chicago, Sewanee, Centre) - BSC, Hendrix, Millsaps
152 Chicago 5-2 (Beloit, ConcChicago, Elmhurst, Kalamazoo, Maclester) - CWE, CarnMell, WashU
215 Tex Lutheran 6-0 (SWestern, Trinity, ETBU, Austin, SulRoss, MissColl) - LaColl, Hard-Simm, HPayne

seems to me that it will come down to 5 teams for 3 spots

1 from the Millsaps, Rhodes, Centre group
1 from Wash U or Chicago
Framingham St.
Tex Luth
Wesley

Millsaps has the edge if they win out, that gives Rhodes 2 losses.  If Rhodes beats Millsaps then there is a chance that both could get selected, not likely, but a chance.
The winner of the Wash U/Chi game looks good, although the Chi SOS is weak.  The loser is out.
Framingham looks strong if they win out, would likely be out if they lose another game.
Tex Luth keeps winning, but the SOS is horrible right now.  Will get a boost in the next couple of weeks.
Wesley can not improve anything they have.  SOS of 1 will look good.

For Wesley to get in I think that Chicago needs to beat Wash U when they play, but lose a game before that, both teams with 3 losses would be out.  Millsaps beating Rhodes giving Rhodes 2 losses.  With the regional rankings included it would seem Wesley's resume would look better.  Framingham losing another game, 2 losses and they would be out.  Tex Luth losing a game.  There SOS looks really bad and 1 loss may eliminate them.  If they take a look at past playoff history, then Wesley gets a boost from that also.

In the end, if Wesley does not get in they have no one to blame but themselves.  With the results this week, the Rowan loss looks even worse.