Pool B

[desertcat1]

just remember no Bell's  at the party 

[ExTartanPlayer]

as you'd remember, smedindy, that was always one of my points to watch heading down the stretch..."Is THIS the year a "B" gets a "C"?"  lol.  And from reading briefly on here today, it seems there a decent chance It Could Happen...lol

I still don't think it's very likely.  The most plausible scenario in which a B grabs a C is Framingham State not getting chosen for a B and being atop the East's board when Pool C discussion begins, but the more that I think about it, I think Framingham will get one of the B's, even if Millsaps and TLU both finish undefeated.  9-1 Framingham with a big SOS seems likely to get the nod over 8-2 WashU and 4-2ish Wesley.  WashU and Wesley both have excellent SOS as well, but Framingham's is high enough that the better record/winning percentage (this matters in Wesley's case; they aren't just a two-loss team, but a team with a .667 winning percentage against Division III opponents; I know that seems unfair but per the criteria, I think it matters) may still get them in.

If that's the case, I don't think WashU/Wesley have the resume to get into the Pool C discussion.  The OAC, CCIW, WIAC, and NWC are likely to bring one-loss runners-up to the table with good results vs. regionally-ranked opponents.  If Concordia-Moorhead beats UST this week, the MIAC gets added, and if Chapman manages to beat Cal Lutheran in their season finale, the SCIAC throws a team into that discussion as well.  MWC "runner-up" St. Norbert will be 9-1 with a lone loss to John Carroll (even if it was a blowout).  Point being, I think there will be at least seven one-loss teams on the board that have big SOS numbers and/or results against regionally ranked opponents, and I don't think WashU or Wesley, even with their SOS numbers, will get a bid over any of the aforementioned teams.  Their best chance is to somehow get slotted ahead of Millsaps/TLU/Framingham in the Pool B discussion.

Just to clarify, I know that conference affiliation has nothing to do with actual playoff selection, it's just a convenient shorthand since OAC runner-up, CCIW runner-up, WIAC runner-up could still theoretically be one of several teams.

[MonroviaCat]

Pair up the Lutherans!

Thrivent Financial for Lutherans / Lutheran Brotherhood have offered to help fund the extra flight and purchase the meat for the pregame meal.  They just ask that last names A-M bring salad or dessert and N-Z bring a hot side dish.

LOL!   

[Ralph Turner]

Pair up the Lutherans!

Thrivent Financial for Lutherans / Lutheran Brotherhood have offered to help fund the extra flight and purchase the meat for the pregame meal.  They just ask that last names A-M bring salad or dessert and N-Z bring a hot side dish.

Karma-worthy post!  +1!   

[Pat Coleman]

Regional rankings:
http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2013/11/06/first-2013-ncaa-regional-rankings/

[ExTartanPlayer]

SOUTH
1   Mary Hardin-Baylor   8-0   8-0
2   Johns Hopkins   8-0   8-0
3   Texas Lutheran   7-0   7-0
4   Wesley   6-2   6-2
5   Millsaps   8-0   8-0
5   Thomas More   7-1   7-1
7   Maryville (Tenn.)   7-1   7-1
8   Washington (Mo.)   6-2   6-2
9   Hampden-Sydney   6-2   6-2
10   Washington and Jefferson   6-2   6-2


Seems pertinent since we now have a window into how the Pool B's are viewed in the RR's.  If the Pool B selection followed this order, WashU is definitely out in the cold and even Millsaps is in jeopardy if the committee took TLU, Framingham State (also of note, Framingham State is #6 in the East RR's), and then Wesley.  Hard to see an undefeated Millsaps getting totally left out, and if they get dumped into Pool C they will probably be the first candidate from the South (which could hurt TMC's chances in Pool C), but wow.  Interesting.

[wally_wabash]

Total face slap for Millsaps.  And they wrap up with Centre and Rhodes, both of whom are pretty good teams but didn't make this week's list.  Ouch ouch ouch.  If you want to pour a heavy emphasis on the SOS I can get Wesley in front of the undefeateds here (don't agree, but I get it)....but then why TLU in front of Millsaps?  TLU doesn't have any quality wins.  That's a surprising order. 

Projections coming shortly....

Common opponents resuts with TLU and Millsaps don't make sense either (look at Miss Coll and Trinity).  I think the south RAC got this mixed up this week. 

[d-train]

Total face slap for Millsaps.  And they wrap up with Centre and Rhodes, both of whom are pretty good teams but didn't make this week's list.  Ouch ouch ouch.  If you want to pour a heavy emphasis on the SOS I can get Wesley in front of the undefeateds here (don't agree, but I get it)....but then why TLU in front of Millsaps?  TLU doesn't have any quality wins.  That's a surprising order. 

Projections coming shortly....

Pacific got hosed in the West. Only one loss with better overall numbers than two-loss SJU and Wartburg.  Redlands could/should have been right in there with the two-loss teams.  Possibly minor, but makes a difference for PLU's ranking and gave Bethel a huge break vs. Linfield.   

{EDIT: Sorry that has so little to do with Pool B}

[ExTartanPlayer]

Total face slap for Millsaps.  And they wrap up with Centre and Rhodes, both of whom are pretty good teams but didn't make this week's list.  Ouch ouch ouch.  If you want to pour a heavy emphasis on the SOS I can get Wesley in front of the undefeateds here (don't agree, but I get it)....but then why TLU in front of Millsaps?  TLU doesn't have any quality wins.  That's a surprising order. 

Projections coming shortly....

Pacific got hosed in the West. Only one loss with better overall numbers than two-loss SJU and Wartburg.  Redlands could/should have been right in there with the two-loss teams.  Possibly minor, but makes a difference for PLU's ranking and gave Bethel a huge break vs. Linfield.   

{EDIT: Sorry that has so little to do with Pool B}

Even if it has little to do with Pool B, it's a good point (and these wires get crossed all over these boards at this time anyway.  As you said, Pacific being ranked at some point does matter for likely Pool C candidate PLU and for Linfield's chances of hosting a regional.  Linfield has to hope that Pacific beats Willamette handily this week and that somehow draws enough attention to nose them into the rankings.

[Carl Menist]

The NCAA Web Site where the regional rankings are posted indicated the following -

"A Southern Athletic Association representative did not participate in this week's rankings"

How many folks vote - how do the numbers work - what could the effect of this be theoretically?

[ExTartanPlayer]

From wally's projection on the Pool C thread:

"Pool B:

Eeeenteresting stuff in the Regional Rankings.  The south picking the order of TLU, Wesley, Millsaps is a major surprise (see what I did there).  Now, we get to something that I'm not clear about since we haven't had multiple Pool Bs since I started breaking this down this way.  Do they take the top "B" team from each region and discuss as they do with the Cs?  If so, we can just ignore the North and West because there aren't ranked or viable candidates out there.  So we're looking first at TLU and Framingham.  Undefeated TLU wins.  Next up is Wesley and Framingham.  Now this is where it is interesting...does the national committee see Wesley's SOS and 0-2 record vs. RROs as better than Framingham State's 8-1 record, respectable SOS, and 0-1 vs. RROs?  Interestingly they have a common opponent- Rowan.  There are a lot of ways one could parse that whole thing out.  Here today I'm going to give Wesley the nod (and it's a no brainer if Salisbury beats Ithaca this week and winds up in the rankings next week).  So then we have Millsaps and Framingham State.  I'm picking Millsaps and their undefeated record again.  So my Bs are, in order:

TLU (7-0, 0-0 vs. RROs, .438 SOS)
Wesley (4-2, 0-2 vs. RROs, .688 SOS)
Millsaps (7-0, 0-0 vs. RROs, .484 SOS)"

Wally, I don't know if B's are all just ranked or if they do the regional thing, but that was my very thought process.  I think if they just rank all the teams together with no regard for region, it goes TLU, Wesley, Millsaps...but I could imagine Framingham getting chosen over Wesley if they put the top regional candidates on the board, which screws the Majors (although I have to think that an undefeated Millsaps is on top of the South's Pool C board to start and gets in eventually).

One other contingency worth addressing: with the current mess that the entire East has been (look how many teams in the RR's have two losses), it is possible that 6-2 Endicott could get into the final regional rankings if they beat current East #9 Salve Regina in the season's final week to finish 8-2.  This would be significant because Framingham beat Endicott in Week 1, and it would give Framingham a win over a regionally ranked opponent.

[jknezek]

The NCAA Web Site where the regional rankings are posted indicated the following -

"A Southern Athletic Association representative did not participate in this week's rankings"

How many folks vote - how do the numbers work - what could the effect of this be theoretically?

This could be a big deal. Millsaps really needs to be above Wesley in the final rankings or they could be in a lot of trouble for a "B". Seeing Millsaps kicked to a "C" would be very interesting. 10-0 "B" on the table versus the "C" teams? I can't imagine Millsaps wouldn't be the South's first "C". I guess that could be the point since the South doesn't really have a "C" candidate except TMC and Wesley at 4-2 might look better on the "B" board up against Framingham than the "C" board up against the North and West teams. I wonder how much they consider things like that.

[ExTartanPlayer]

The NCAA Web Site where the regional rankings are posted indicated the following -

"A Southern Athletic Association representative did not participate in this week's rankings"

How many folks vote - how do the numbers work - what could the effect of this be theoretically?

This could be a big deal. Millsaps really needs to be above Wesley in the final rankings or they could be in a lot of trouble for a "B". Seeing Millsaps kicked to a "C" would be very interesting. 10-0 "B" on the table versus the "C" teams? I can't imagine Millsaps wouldn't be the South's first "C". I guess that could be the point since the South doesn't really have a "C" candidate except TMC and Wesley at 4-2 might look better on the "B" board up against Framingham than the "C" board up against the North and West teams. I wonder how much they consider things like that.

Oh, I think this is a verrrrrrry big deal.  TLU and Wesley both above Millsaps astounds me and makes it very realistic that Millsaps doesn't get a Pool B and ends up in the Pool C mix.  I think that all Pool C hopefuls should keep their fingers crossed that Millsaps and TLU both get in through Pool B (or that TLU takes a loss and makes this decision easier) because, criteria be damned, I can't imagine the national folks leaving an undefeated Pool B/C team out.  I'd like my chances much better as a C candidate against 2-loss Wesley than against an undefeated team.  If we get the weird TLU/Framingham/Wesley selection in Pool B, then Millsaps is in the Pool C mix with an undefeated record, possibly taking us down to 4 "true" Pool C slots if the committee follows my thinking that undefeated teams should not be left out.

As wally has said, there is no good justification for TLU over Millsaps.  TLU beat Trinity by 4 and MissCollege by 3.  Millsaps beat the same teams by 3 (okay, call that a wash) and by 33 (!).  TLU's best win is probably 5-3 Louisiana College, but is that win REALLY much better than Millsaps over 5-3 Birmingham Southern?  Enough to offset the fact that Millsaps blew out Trinity and TLU barely won?

[wally_wabash]

Just a couple of  more thoughts on the Pool B table in the south...

- We've seen things like this in the past where a ranking doesn't make much sense and then gets corrected the following week.  We might see some of that next Wednesday here because I can't believe that the folks on that RAC aren't hearing some of the same things that we are talking about here...or that some of them may actually be reading this stuff. 

- What impact is the game against Charlotte going to have on Wesley next week?  If they get completely hammered by the 49ers, I think it's tough to pretend that it never happened.  Week 10 is really a bad time to look bad, even if you are playing out of division. 

- I really have hard time seeing a situation where an undefeated Millsaps doesn't go in and doesn't go in via Pool B.  I just don't know how you can be one of two teams in that subsection of the division to be undefeated and not get one of the three bids.  It's not like Millsaps has played a grotesque schedule.  The SAA is plenty respectable.  When it's all said and done I think the order of selection for Pool B is going to be Millsaps first, TLU second, and Wesley third. 

- Wesley would really, really, really benefit from having anybody they beat get ranked.  That would really take some of the steam off of a Framingham/Wesley debate. 

[Ron Boerger]

As wally has said, there is no good justification for TLU over Millsaps.  TLU beat Trinity by 4 and MissCollege by 3.  Millsaps beat the same teams by 3 (okay, call that a wash) and by 33 (!).  TLU's best win is probably 5-3 Louisiana College, but is that win REALLY much better than Millsaps over 5-3 Birmingham Southern?  Enough to offset the fact that Millsaps blew out Trinity and TLU barely won?

Millsaps didn't blow out Trinity (27-24); did you perhaps mean MC?