Pool B

[Ralph Turner]

The moves inside Pool B for the 2008 season continue as we have seen the affiliation of Huntingdon and LaGrange with the SLIAC, and (SUNY-)Brockport State and provisional SUNY-Morrisville to the NJAC.

In 2007 we shall see the Pres AC moving to Pool A.  Colorado College will play in the SCAC.

In 2008, the Northwest Conference moves to Pool A status.

[Ralph Turner]

I have copied a post from the ODAC board from last night.

Wesley is in the PAC this year for all other sports. Next year they go to the Capitol conference. Salisbury is already in the Capitol. I don't know where Frostburg St. is conference comiitted in other sports. Galluadette is in the Capitol conf. and as far as I know they are the only three currently with football. Though Hood is supposed to be starting a football program and one other school that escapes me right now. Pat and K-Mack have broached this subject before

PA_Wesleyan,

this would be a good time for a school in the Capital to add football.  The conference could be 4 years away from a Pool A bid.

Let's look at this timeline.

Current status of football in the Mid-Atlantic Region:

Independents (ACFC):

Wesley (Capital AC)
Gallaudet (Capital AC)
Salisbury (Capital AC)

Affiliates from the ACFC:
Frostburg St (AMCC)

Potential Affiliates:
SUNY-Maritime (Skyline)

Fall 2007 -- At least one Capital AC school announces study group to investigate football with a report date of Spring 2008.

Fall 2007 -- Another mid-Atlantic school (even a  non-Capital AC) announces exploring football.

Spring 2008 -- Capital AC school announces football in Fall 2009 and hires a football coach.

Spring 2008 -- Non-Capital AC school announces football in Fall 2009 and later accepts affiliation with the Capital AC in football.

Spring 2008 -- Capital AC announces sponsoring football in Fall 2009 by 4 core members and has accepted affiliate memberships from Frostburg State, SUNY-Maritime and another non-Capital AC football-playing school.

Fall 2009 -- Capital AC has 4 members and 3 affiliate schools field first football teams in the new Capital AC.

Fall 2011 -- Capital AC has AQ.  (I think that NNA could be invited to participate.)

It's actually Villa Julie that is studying football.

There would be the fourth Capital AC school.  Add Frostburg St and SUNY-Maritime and you have a formal conference.  Add one more full member as an affiliate and you have the 7th necessarily for the AQ!

As I count the Pool B's in 2011, I get:

The UAA-4 (CMU, CWRU, Chicago, WashU)
East Region Independents (3):  Becker, Husson and Mt Ida
West Region Independents (2):  Macalester and Chapman
The UMAC-5 (Crown, Martin Luther, MN-Morris, Northwestern MN, St Scholastica***.)  IMHO, the addition of St Sebastian Scholastica*** prompted the UMAC schools to pull out of the deal with the SLIAC.

I project these 14 schools would get one Pool B as the handbook prescribes at this time.

The "Capital AC-6" make 20 Pool B's.  Twenty Pool B's would give us 2 Pool B bids.

In 2007, The Pres AC moves a Pool B bid to Pool A. (3 Pool B bids projected.)

In 2008, the NWC moves another Pool B bid to Pool A, but the IBC dissolves.  The NAthCon teams get it back in 2010.

In 2010, the SLIAC gets a Pool A bid, taking a bid from Pool C.

In 2011, I count 25 Pool A bids, 2 Pool B bids (including the Capital AC)  and 5 Pool C bids.

The decrease in Pool A bids seems primarily to new programs coming on-line as new Pool A conferences are formed, e.g., the Pres AC, the NWC and the SLIAC, which have cobbled schools that are now or recently were in Pool B.  In the UMAC, we have 4 new full programs by 2011.  SUNY-Morrisville is absorbed into the NJAC, probably making the addition of Brockport even easier, and maybe even pre-empting any move by the SUNYAC to form its own conference.

Pat Coleman and I speculate that the NAthCon may get a Pool A bid in 2008.  The precedent for a conference getting a Pool A bid in its first season of sponsored competition is the Dixie IAC in 2001.

That would be a net switch of a Pool B bid becoming a Pool A bid, leaving 2 Pool B bids in 2008.

*** and a thank you, repete, for the proofreading correction. (+1, too.)
(Addendum dated September 10, 2007)


Castleton State, a member of the NAC, is adding football in 2009.  That gives four members of the NAC which play football.  Maine Maritime is a member of the 8-member NEFC Bogan.  If the NAC Commissioner and Presidents want to push the Football AQ for the conference, then they are in a good position to do that.  Retrieving Maine Maritime from the Bogan would be the only conference raided since the departure of affiliate Norwich from the E8.  (Norwich and Mount Ida are full members of the GNAC.) Becker, Castleton State, Husson and Maine Maritime could form the "requisite 4 core" members.  Gallaudet, SUNY Maritime, Norwich and  Mount Ida would be affiliates.  Should the NAC pursue the AQ bid, that allocation would likely come from "Pool B" bids.  In 2011, the only remaining Pool B schools under current projections would be UAA-4, Wesley, Frostburg St, Salisbury, the UMAC-5, Macalester and Chapman.  That leaves 14 schools in Pool B.  I calculated the allocation ratio for Pool B in 2007 as (190 Pool A schools divided by 22 Pool A conferences) 1:8.636.  In 2011, that would mean 1 Pool B bid for the 14 Pool B schools.  (Villa Julie would make 15 Pool B schools.)

We have not considered the impact of Norwich's departure from the Empire 8, which would be left with 6 members, and would lose its Pool A bid.  The Empire "6" would "take a Pool A bid" back to Pool B.  If the Empire "6" are considered in Pool B, then there would be 2 Pool B bids for the 20 schools.

Finally, we have not considered the impact of the "Future of Division III Legislation" in these discussions.
(Addendum originally added on November 30, 2007 and modified on December 28, 2007)

[Bob.Gregg]

Not that I'll be ignorant of the facts of this group (any moreso than in previous years), but now that the Presidents Athletic Conference has an AQ, I'll not be as active in this debate...

You guys are on your own--not that me being involved in the discussions would have changed that much anyway....

Now, can the PAC get a Pool C bid....Just kidding....

[Ralph Turner]

Bob, we hope you will share your insight into Pool B this season.

As we look at the first two weekends, it looks like Wesley, CMU and a Northwest Conference team are the 3 leading contenders.

Huntingdon lost a non-region game to UW-Oshkosh, also gained some perspective of playoff-calibre teams in 2007.  (Huntingdon moves to the SLIAC in 2008, which may be a "Pool B" conference as it moves to full status in 2010.)

We can mention that Macalester is 2-0, but Carleton and GAC loom ahead. 

[repete]

As I count the Pool B's in 2011, I get:

The UAA-4 (CMU, CWRU, Chicago, WashU)
East Region Independents (3):  Becker, Husson and Mt Ida
West Region Independents (2):  Macalester and Chapman
The UMAC-5 (Crown, Martin Luther, MN-Morris, Northwestern MN, St Sebastian.)  IMHO, the addition of St Sebastian prompted the UMAC schools to pull out of the deal with the SLIAC.

St. Scholastica, right RT?

[Ralph Turner]

Daily Dose New England Shuffle.

The NAC and E8 problems on the front page.

We have reports of Shenandoah seeking permission to join the ODAC.

Shenandoah's leaving the USA South leaves the USA South one shy in all sports except football.  Does this cause the USA South to acquire the GSAC-Women and the GSAC-4 (Men) to maintain the conference AQ?

Hunitingdon and LaGrange just signed on with the SLIAC for 2008.  The SLIAC could have the AQ by 2010.  However, Huntingdon and Lagrange would love to get access to the AQ in basketball and baseball.  If they have moved to the USA South, do we have the SLIAC re-talking with the UMAC, which should have 5 football playing members by then?

The Empire-8 is sitting in the middle of all of this.  The NJAC will have grown to 10-members (all public universities with the addition of Brockport St and SUNY-Morrisville) by 2011.  Why does the NJAC want to mess up their scheduling?  It has been so hard for them to get D-III opponents in the past.  Now they would have only one non-conference game to schedule.  That is all Cortland needs, the Cortaca Jug Game.

Just as Pool B was going away, it has become very active again.

The E8 (minus ?), the North Atlantic Conference, the ACFC and maybe the SLIAC and the UMAC all might be in Pool B, along with the UAA-4

What a mess!

St Scholastica... My bad!  Thanks for the proofreading! 

[Pat Coleman]

This will work:

http://www.d3football.com/notables/2007/09/12/NAC+adds+football%3B+E8+could+lose+bid

[@d3jason]

Just wanted to see if this was a correct for the Pool B eligible teams for 2007. I assume the bottom four are not eligible because they are provisional status.
Frostburg
Salisbury
Wesley
Huntingdon
Gallaudet
Carnegie Mellon
Washington
Brockport  Will move to the NJAC in 2008.
Becker
Husson
Mount Ida
Plymouth State -- Competes in the NEFC Boyd
SUNY-Maritime
Chicago
Case Western
Blackburn
Principia
Rockford
Westminster
Chapman
Colorado College Competes in the SCAC
Macalester
Maranatha Baptist
Martin Luther
Nebraska Wesleyan  Competes in the NAIA for football.
Puget Sound
Pacific Lutheran
Linfield
Whitworth
Willamette
Lewis & Clark
Menlo  last year for the NWC to be in Pool B
LaGrange

Northwestern (Minn)
Minnesota-Morris
Crown
Morrisville State  Provisionals who are not eligible for 2007 playoffs


I have used my modify tool to overwrite Conrad's list for ease of use. Ralph Turner

+1 Conrad 

[d-train]

Is it still 4 Pool B bids this year or down to 3?

[Pat Coleman]

We don't know for sure but we presume three based on the removal of seven PAC teams and Colorado College.

[@d3jason]

Probably too early for this, but what the heck.

If you go undefeated you are likely to get in (assuming there aren't 4 or 5 unbeaten teams)
Here are the current unbeaten teams:

Salisbury 3-0
Husson 3-0
Wesley 3-0
Case Western 3-0
Puget Sound 2-0
Pacific Lutheran 2-0
Chapman 1-0

One loss teams still have a shot, since their will probably be only one unbeaten (maybe two or maybe none.) Salisbury & Wesley play each other. I think Husson has Springfield and St John Fisher on the schedule (probably two Losses there.) The NWC teams still have to play through the conference and will probably beat up on each other.

Here are the one-loss teams, who could still possibly get in.

Carnegie Melon 2-1
Washington (Mo) 2-1
SUNY-Maritime 2-1
Macalester 2-1
Martin Luther 2-1
Brockport 1-1
Frostburg 1-1
Gallaudet 1-1
Chicago 1-1
Linfield 1-1
Whitworth 1-1

With a lot of games to be played, you could argue that maybe one two-loss team gets in if things break right and their regional record in good enough. So these teams are on the bubble. Another loss most likely knocks them out of consideration:

Mount Ida 1-2
Rockford 1-2
Huntingdon 1-2
Westminster 1-2
Willamette 1-2
Maranatha Baptist 1-2
Lewis & Clark 0-2

[Pat Coleman]

It's really only instructive to look at regional records, or records against D-III teams, for something like this. Games against non-D3 teams almost never get taken into consideration.

[@d3jason]

It's really only instructive to look at regional records, or records against D-III teams, for something like this. Games against non-D3 teams almost never get taken into consideration.

Well that makes a helluva lot more work for me!

[d-train]

It's really only instructive to look at regional records, or records against D-III teams, for something like this. Games against non-D3 teams almost never get taken into consideration.

Well that makes a helluva lot more work for me!

Then put it off for 4 or 5 weeks. It'll be more relevent and much clearer then anyway. 

[Ralph Turner]

It's really only instructive to look at regional records, or records against D-III teams, for something like this. Games against non-D3 teams almost never get taken into consideration.

Well that makes a helluva lot more work for me!

Conrad, we fans are always happy to see other fans who like to do the research about things like playoffs, etc.

The Pool B starts getting active about Week #6, when most of the contenders have played several in-region games, and the bottom of Pool B has separated itself.