FB: Ohio Athletic Conference

[CardinalAlum]

You're right!!  Good luck this weekend.  Hope we can make the trip to Alliance in a couple of weeks! 

[labart96]

We don't mind the playoff guests.  Please quit Quoting Every Post though.  It is such a bother to scroll up and down the thread to read mindless banter.  LOL

I thought only the annoying LL fans did this all the time?   

Here's my Hobart-MUC preview (note a lot of this stuff is not news to you guys but was written from a Hobart fan perspective - I distributed this to about 30+ former teammates, Bart alumni, friends and family so it obviously has a Bart slant):

#23 Hobart (LL Champions) vs. #1 Mount Union (OAC Champions)

The Hobart Statesmen (9-1) will travel to Alliance, OH this Saturday to play David to the Goliath that is the #1 Mount Union College Purple Raiders (11-0).  The Raiders have been the gold - nay platinum - standard of Division III Football since 1993.  In the past 15 seasons, Mount Union has advanced to the National Semi-Finals every year and has won the NCAA Championship in Football nine times including 1993, 1996-98, 2000-02, 2005 and 2006.  Last season, Mount Union fell in to the UW-Whitewater Warhawks 31-21 in the Championship game.  It was only the fourth game (regular and post-season combined) that the Raiders have lost since the 2000 season(!).

This season, Mount Union cruised past the ODAC Champion Randolph-Macon (6-5) in the first round to win 56-0 behind 290 rushing yards from All-American SR RB Nate Kmic.  Going into the Hobart game, Kmic is 139 yards away from setting the all-time Division III rushing record held by R.J. Bowers of Grove City, PA (7,383 yards).  The 5' 9" 193 lb SR RB from Delta, OH is a very quick runner and difficult to tackle.  On the 2008 season Kmic has gained 1,930 yards on 244 carries (7.9 average per rush, 175.5 per game) scoring 31 rushing TDs.

If that's not enough, the Purple Raiders also just happen to have one of most efficient passers in all of Division III.  SR QB Greg Micheli has accumulated a 77.2% completion percentage throwing for 2,791 yards (179-232) and 29 passing TDs to only two interceptions.  Micheli's favorite target is WR Cecil Shorts who's caught 58 passes for 1,190 yards (108.2 average per game) and 19 TDs.

Mount Union is coached by eight-time AFCA Coach of the Year Larry Kehres.  Coach Kehres has been at the helm of the Purple Raiders for 23 seasons, accumulating an amazing 260-21-3 record (.956). 

Sound too good to be true?  Just wait, it gets better.

Mount Union also possesses the #1 defense in the nation allowing a paltry 5.5 points per game.  In fact, so far this season only one team, OAC rival Otterbein (9-2), was able to score more than 13 points against the Raiders.

Given these insurmountable odds (pun intended), the Statesmen will need to play the game of their collective lives to upset the highly favored Mount Union.

Tale of the Tape

Given Mount Union's unprecedented run in Division III, it should not come to any surprise they have "Madden 2009" type of offensive (and defensive) statistics.

A closer look (aka attempting to find some kind of silver lining - regardless of how faint - for Hobart), brings a couple of interesting facts to light:

1.  Hobart has a slight advantage in turnover ratio.  It almost goes without saying that the Statesmen will need an almost perfect performance Saturday to play close with the Raiders.  The best defense for Hobart is keeping Kmic, Micheli and company on the sideline.  Rich Doyle can't really afford to throw any interceptions in this game, especially on Hobart's side of the field.  Nor can SO RB Andrew Marlier afford to fumble the football, without expecting some form of Mount Union points (probably a touchdown) as the punishment for these kinds of mistakes.  The Statesmen do have a ball hawking defense that's collected 19 interceptions on the year (both SR FS Lance Boyington and FY CB Drake Woodard rank in the top five in the nation in total interceptions), but the Hobart secondary will have their hands full trying to cover the very speedy Cecil Shorts.  Micheli has only thrown two interceptions on the year, but so had RPI SR QB Jimmy Robertson (named the LL Player of the Year) going into his game vs. Hobart.  The Statesmen picked Robertson off once and caused enough pressure in the pocket to have him pass almost 30 percentage points (40% vs. 69%) below his regular season average.

2.  The Statesmen must test the undersized middle defensive linemen (Hobart has a size and weight advantage on their OL - averaging approximately 6' 2" and 275 lbs vs. MUC's interior DT's that average approximately 5' 11" and 240 lbs) with runs up the gut.  Marlier showed great straight ahead rushing last week vs. Lycoming in his 24 carry, 96 yard performance).  Andrew is a not a very big RB, but at 6' 210 lbs, the Illinois State transfer isn't a "little guy" either.  Hobart will need to leverage this size advantage at the line of scrimmage and mix up plays to sustain drives and capitalize on time of possession.  Pass protection will also be key for the Hobart OL as MUC has accumulated 42 sacks on the season.

3.  Bend don't break - MUC has the #1 scoring defense in the nation, but Hobart's not too shabby only allowing about 15 points per game.  One interesting statistic not shown below is that both Hobart and MUC have only allowed a single touchdown in the first quarter all season.  For the Statesmen to have a chance, they will need to avoid falling behind by a large margin early.  If they can keep it close in the first quarter and half like they've done all season, the Statesmen will build some confidence.  Given that Hobart's defensive strength are its up the middle rushing and passing defense, Mount Union will likely attack off-tackle, allowing Kmic to bounce outside and break tackles en route to his trademark long TD runs.  Hobart's middle and outside linebackers and weak-side defensive backs will need to tackle and wrap up on initial contact, otherwise it will be a long day for the Statesmen.  Fortunately, Hobart has some great tacklers including LL Defensive Player of the Year and All-American candidate SR LB Justin Hager (114 tackles on the season to date).

4.  Special teams - Hobart has blocked four kicks this season, two more than MUC.  It would be a huge break for the Statesmen in this game to come up with either a punt or field goal block (although if I read the stats book correctly, MUC has only punted four times all season!).  I wouldn't be surprised either to see Hobart attempt a punt fake (or two) which they've successfully done in the past.  Given the long odds, Hobart doesn't have much to lose by going for it on a few plays.

Key Stats   MUC      HOB
Scoring Offense   47.6   PPG   24.5
Scoring Defense   5.5   PPG   15.2
Total Offense   554   YPG   328.9
Total Defense   163.3   YPG   273
Rushing Offense   269.8   YPG   136.7
Passing Offense   284.2   YPG   192.2
TD Scored - Off   74   TDs   32
TD Allowed - Def   8   TDs   20
Completion %   77.2   %   54.3
Turnover Ratio   Even   Give/Take   Plus 3
Time of Possession   31:44:00   TOP   32:19:00
Red Zone Offense   83   %   71
Red Zone Defense   69   %   75
Field Goals   50   %   61.5
PATs   93   %   91
Punting   36.2   AVG   35.7
Sacks (For/Against)   Plus 29   Give/Take   Plus 2

End of the Line(?)

The odds are not in favor of a Hobart upset this Saturday.  Mount Union hasn't gone on this unprecedented run without reason.  They are practically flawless in their execution and perhaps given the resulting "awe factor" (not to mention their outstanding defensive play), the Raiders cause teams to make mistakes that they cash in on with offensive points early and often in games.  Being that the game is in Alliance, on turf, will also provide MUC with a home field advantage of a large hometown crowd and the added quickness against a Hobart team that's used to slugging it out on the mud (and snow) in front of a handful of die hard Statesmen fans.

I watched some clips from the MUC season opener vs. Saint John Fisher (from nearby Rochester and a member of the Empire 8 conference.  SJF finished 7-4 on the season this year and did not qualify for the NCAA's) on YouTube recently.  MUC won the game 33-3 and held SJF to 28 total yards rushing and capitalized on three interceptions thrown by the SJF QB (one returned for a touchdown to make it 20-0 just before half-time).  In some of the out takes it literally seemed like the SJF QB threw the ball directly to the MUC DBs - in two clips I didn't see a SJF receiver anywhere near the ball, but that's probably an exaggeration on my part (and very good coverage on the other part).  Obviously, for Hobart to avoid the same fate, they'll need to do much better than 28 yards rushing.  SJF had some success passing the ball (231 yards), but they repeatedly shot themselves in the foot with the interceptions.

Kmic is going to get his yards, he may very well break the rushing record in the first half, but Hobart will need to clamp down in the red zone to attempt to hold MUC to field goals instead of touchdowns.  Hobart will have its hands full trying to move the ball on the MUC defense, but if Offensive Coordinator Kevin Dewall '00 is his usual creative self, I am certain the Statesmen will come up with a variety of formations (note that JR WR Tyler Vincent lined up behind center and took some direct snaps and even completed a pass to Doyle from a Miami Dolphin "Wildcat" package, and Marlier ran several times from the "Maryland I formation" on several plays against Lycoming last week).

Hobart's chances may be slim, but the Statesmen really have nothing to lose other than the game.  If they somehow pull off the upset, it will be the greatest thing since sliced bread.  If they lose, it will sting for a while, but at least the Statesmen will have had a shot at the best team in the country.  If anything a "quality loss to MUC" is often rewarded by pollsters, etc from a national standpoint which will be helpful for Hobart getting themselves (and indirectly the LL) a little more respect going into the 2009 season.  Hobart still hasn't gotten the "can't advance past the second round monkey" off their backs yet - and aren't likely to this season - but this program has quietly become the most consistent team in the East Region tallying seven NCAA play-off appearances in nine years, including five consecutive from 2004 to present.  The Statesmen have a 72-21 record since 2000 (a 77+% winning percentage) and haven't lost more than one league game dating back to 2002.

Either way, this season has gone beyond the expectations for most Hobart fans, local and national pundits.  Given the question marks surrounding how the team would rebound after the record setting year under QB Andy Strom '08, this Statesmen team has accomplished a lot.  Hobart was not picked to win the LL title by the prognosticators (including myself) and they did.  They were not expected to go to the NCAAs and they did.  They were not even picked by the majority of D3football.com experts to win their first round game against Lycoming and they did.  This 2008 Statesmen team has had a great year - especially the Seniors - and should be congratulated for their efforts. 

No matter what the outcome Saturday this group of Statesmen are winners in my book.

Go BART!

[rscl70]

TGP

Enjoyed your game preview, thanks for sharing.  You may be wrong about the large home crowd.  Thanksgiving weekend games tend to be sparsely attended.  It would be nice to see a good sized contingent from Hobart.  A large visiting turn out always makes the day more exciting.

[Kira & Jaxon's Dad]

Nice Write Up TGP!  +K 4U

[Desertraider]

TGP: Great write up. Only one mistake that I noticed. LK is 271-21-3 not 260-21-3. Other than that you mention Bart needs to keep Mount's O off the field. I am assuming you are referring to time of possession. I brought that up last week and was shown an amazing stat from 1999 Rowan game. Mount had the ball like 12 minutes to Rowans 48 and Mount won 42-33. Add to that the first quarter from this past week against RMC. Mount had the ball just over 4 minutes, to RMCs 10 and change. Score: Mount 21, RMC 0. Regardless, great post.


One last thing. I am all in favor of old school football but - why doesn't Mount have sideline equipment to keep the guys warm? I mean I am not talking about the heaters the D1...I mean FBS...and pro prima donnas have - but at least a parka. Kmic's arms looked like strawberries by halftime.

[Pat Coleman]

That game you reference was against Augustana.

[labart96]

TGP: Great write up. Only one mistake that I noticed. LK is 271-21-3 not 260-21-3. Other than that you mention Bart needs to keep Mount's O off the field. I am assuming you are referring to time of possession. I brought that up last week and was shown an amazing stat from 1999 Rowan game. Mount had the ball like 12 minutes to Rowans 48 and Mount won 42-33. Add to that the first quarter from this past week against RMC. Mount had the ball just over 4 minutes, to RMCs 10 and change. Score: Mount 21, RMC 0. Regardless, great post.

Thx for the props and the update re: Kehres stats.  I realize that I must have forgot to account for the 11 wins this season in addition to the career record I pulled from the MUC website.

Re: TOP - you're right.  It doesn't matter if you have the ball for 30-40+ minutes vs your opponent if they score after 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 play drives every time they get the ball.  Obviously Hobart's offense will need to put together long possessions to control the clock, but you're right - at the end of the day it comes down to points - not minutes.

Our D is pretty athletic and shouldn't wear down physically, so ideally even if you guys drive up and down the field between the 20's, they'll need to come up with timely stops to keep the score reasonable and hopefully provide Hobart some momentum from time to time.  Easier said than done, but it's our D that's pretty much carried the team all year and they'll have to do the same again Saturday.

[Desertraider]

That game you reference was against Augustana.

Right! How did I forget Augustana? Ya know Pat - with all of your knowledge, you should have your own website!

[seventiesraider]

If that's not enough, the Purple Raiders also just happen to have one of most efficient passers in all of Division III.  SR QB Greg Micheli has accumulated a 77.2% completion percentage throwing for 2,791 yards (179-232) and 29 passing TDs to only two interceptions.  Micheli's favorite target is WR Cecil Shorts who's caught 58 passes for 1,190 yards (108.2 average per game) and 19 TDs.

One possible correction in scope, Greg's passing efficency is 217.7 and Brett Elliot holds the current DIII record for a season with 183.3, hence I would have to say the most efficent passer in DIII history for a single season, and may end up the season as the All Divisions Career leader.

Nate Kmic also has a chance to be the All Divisions Career rusher

Sorry, cracked hip leaves me with little to do

[purpled]

TGP - thanks...good stuff. No matter what the stats are in the past for me each game comes down to this...can the opposing team answer Mount's offense. The best example was the Otterbein game...Mount scored on it's first five possessions and it was 35-13 at half. When you get scored on then go 3 and out you're in trouble. This offense is relentless. And it's not just Micheli, Kmic and Shorts...you also have to contend with Reynolds, Claycomb and Petruziello. And I'm sure VK will have an answer to running the ball up the gut.

RUN NATE RUN!!

[HScoach]

From the MUC press release:


MICHELI = MR. EFFICENT
Senior quarterback Greg Micheli is the nation's top rated passer with a 217.7 passer rating. Micheli has completed 77.2-percent of his passes (179-of-232) for 2,791 yards and 29 touchdown passes with just two interceptions. Last week against Randolph-Macon, he completed 11-of-13 passes for 218 yards and a touchdown. For his career, he is 517-of-692 (74.4%) with 74 TD's to just nine interceptions. His career passer rating is 198.8 makes him the highest rated passer in college football history just ahead of former Purple Raider Bill Borchert (1994-97) who is 194.2 rating.

[seventiesraider]

Sorry Micheli was 193.7 last year so he s/b be breaking his own record. My fault for believing the NCAA website, not Mount Union's

[purpled]

seventies...Hope you're doing well.

Question...since you do have some time on your hands what team, D3, holds the record for least amount of punts in a season?

Thanks!

[reality check]

 I really hoped to find a loophole with Lewis and Clark's punting in their shortened 2005 season but somehow I still think they punted more in those 4 games than Mount Union has in 15-game seasons.

[section13raiderfan]

Hey HSCOACH, I could have swore that DON MONTGOMERY was at the playoff game last weekend....that or his twin....he was exiting the stadium behind the concessions. Did he perhaps drop in the pressbox for a visit?  I swear I was stone sober too!