FB: Ohio Athletic Conference

[HScoach]

After watching the 2 games played this season in wet conditions, I don't like the forecast for Saturday.   

50 degrees, 13 MPH winds and 70% chance of rain.   

[ExTartanPlayer]

A couple of thoughts on the "Heidelberg has not played a team as good as Mount's second-string this year" discussion:

1) Of course, it should be considered if a team is undefeated against nobodies in evaluating that team's strength and likelihood of advancing in the playoffs.

2) With that said, if they're really killing the nobodies, we can't make a decisive conclusion about them one way or the other.  We might be skeptical of whether they're really national-title-material, but it's hard to definitely rule out the possibility.

3) I see a couple reasons that the "they haven't played anybody yet" argument is somewhat less relevant for Heidelberg: first, as we've said, they've played the same teams with the exception of Mount's Week 1 test against playoff-hardened Franklin.  That does tell us Mount has been tested and Heidelberg hasn't, but it doesn't necessarily mean anything about the relative strength of the two teams against one another, only that Mount played and beat one really good team while Heidi has not. 

Second, and more importantly, Heidelberg plays these guys every year.  Most of the key Heidelberg players will be playing their third or fourth game against Mount, which is one of the reasons that I'd give both John Carroll and Heidelberg a better chance than some first- or second-round playoff opponent from another conference.  They're not like Widener, seeing the beast for the first time up close.  The Heidelberg kids have known since the preseason that this was their big game.  That may or may not work to their advantage, you could argue that they'll be especially tight or nervous or whatever, but they've certainly brought focus to every game til now and pounded all of those lesser opponents.  The only hint of any chink in the armor was that they let Otterbein hang around for a while. 

Finally, Heidelberg is coached by a Mount alum.  That is just a teeny intangible but somehow it has to count for a little something.  If Heidelberg loses the game, it won't be because they were taken aback by how good Mount Union was.  Mount looks like the better side, but I don't think the argument that Heidelberg's weak schedule hasn't prepared them for Mount really holds up.  If Mount wins it'll be because they were just better than Heidelberg, not because the Princes weren't ready for the game.

For a while I had been looking at this game and favoring Mount pretty heavily because Heidelberg was giving up a lot more points than Mount, but closer examination reveals that a lot of those points have come in games that are already wayyyy out of hand (as I said, Otterbein is the direct comparison that seems to indicate Heidelberg's defense is much softer than Mount's).  I still favor Mount by a few scores, but I'm interested to see how it turns out.  While Heidelberg might seem to prefer a shootout, I think that in this game they'll be better served by a "relatively" low-scoring (i.e. 20's or low 30's instead of 40-50's) game where Brooks totes the ball for steady gains and somehow Mount's passing attack is slowed down.  A track meet might favor Mount too much; HScoach's weather report may be good news for Heidelberg.

[pradierguy]

Any Purple Raiders making the trip to Berg for the game? I really considered coming home for the weekend and going, but I had to choose between this weekend and Thanksgiving. I never would have thought at this point in my life I would be making decisions based on what my Mom thinks, but Thanksgiving was the final decision.

Go Purple Raiders!

[theaprof]

Headed to the game on Saturday--a little weird since I am a 'Berg grad.  Definitely rooting for the purple though.  Riding over with a member of the alumni council--he understands my obsession with all things Mount.

[Dr. Acula]

Rewatched the Franklin game.  It had slipped my mind that that thing was about to be on ice at halftime until that fumble at the 5.  That got me thinking with rain in the forecast....hang onto the dang ball Saturday Raiders!  Way too many fumbles in the red zone and nearly everyone has been a culprit at some point.  No room for that this week. 

[Blutarsky]

Rewatched the Franklin game.  It had slipped my mind that that thing was about to be on ice at halftime until that fumble at the 5.  That got me thinking with rain in the forecast....hang onto the dang ball Saturday Raiders!  Way too many fumbles in the red zone and nearly everyone has been a culprit at some point.  No room for that this week.

Just a personal opinion, but it seems that while many fumbles are from contact, a majority are the result of a lack of concentration.  Many times when Mount "coughs it up", the game is late, or the opponent is less than stellar.  I'm hopeful that the intensity of Saturday's contest, and the quality of opponent, will not result in those "indifferent" balls on the ground.

[Dr. Acula]

I was browsing the Review and read an article about Ott prior to last week's game.  After watching the Ott game on STO this is hard for me to wrap my head around:

"Otterbein moved the ball well against Heidelberg. They started off very balanced and got behind, then started spreading them out by throwing the ball," said Kehres. "They got the ball inside the 15-yard line five times without getting any points."

Otterbein (3-3, 3-2) rolled up 433 yards against Heidelberg, but scored on just three of its 13 possessions in the 35-17 loss. Senior quarterback Ben Sizemore and junior Brick Davis took seven sacks in the defeat, but Sizemore still threw for 354 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

2 TD's and 5 more times inside the 15?!  This is the same team we saw in Alliance 5 days ago?  More importantly, how demoralizing would it be to get zilch in 5 trips inside the 15?  Crushing.

[motorman]

Headed to the game on Saturday--a little weird since I am a 'Berg grad.  Definitely rooting for the purple though.  Riding over with a member of the alumni council--he understands my obsession with all things Mount.

I'm a Mount grad and I'll be rooting for Berg, my son is a Senior there.

I was going to go but I think the forecast is going to keep me away. Had enough of sitting out in that crap last year in Alliance.

The Brooks injury last year happened on the 3rd series, not the middle of the game. Berg marched right down the field to break the Mount shutout streak on their first possession and moved the ball well and into Mount territory on their 2nd possession before being stopped on downs. The offense wasn't close to the same after he was hurt.

[theaprof]

Headed to the game on Saturday--a little weird since I am a 'Berg grad.  Definitely rooting for the purple though.  Riding over with a member of the alumni council--he understands my obsession with all things Mount.

I'm a Mount grad and I'll be rooting for Berg, my son is a Senior there.

I was going to go but I think the forecast is going to keep me away. Had enough of sitting out in that crap last year in Alliance.

The Brooks injury last year happened on the 3rd series, not the middle of the game. Berg marched right down the field to break the Mount shutout streak on their first possession and moved the ball well and into Mount territory on their 2nd possession before being stopped on downs. The offense wasn't close to the same after he was hurt.

Definitely rooting for Mount, but will be proud of my alma mater if Coach Hallet (from Mount Union, of course) and the 'Berg manage to pull it off.  Mike's a great guy and I send lots of good wishes his way.  Root for the 'Berg every week but one (or maybe two this year if they get there in the playoffs).  Good Luck to both teams Saturday.  Here's to a great, well played game.  I hope the officials have nothing to do with the outcome.

[HScoach]

Headed to the game on Saturday--a little weird since I am a 'Berg grad.  Definitely rooting for the purple though.  Riding over with a member of the alumni council--he understands my obsession with all things Mount.

I'm a Mount grad and I'll be rooting for Berg, my son is a Senior there.

I was going to go but I think the forecast is going to keep me away. Had enough of sitting out in that crap last year in Alliance.

The Brooks injury last year happened on the 3rd series, not the middle of the game. Berg marched right down the field to break the Mount shutout streak on their first possession and moved the ball well and into Mount territory on their 2nd possession before being stopped on downs. The offense wasn't close to the same after he was hurt.

Correct.   Their offense died when he went out.   

[Dr. Acula]

Latest weather forecast for Tiffin is 50 degrees, 50% chance of rain and 10-15 mph wind during game time.  Sounds like an ugly day, but at least it's not 40 degrees with a 100% chance of a monsoon!  Or snow.  This is Ohio after all.

I read in Jeff Zupanic's one article that after struggling the first couple games Mount has rushed for at least 290 yards in each of their last 5 games.  I read that and thought 'Wow, that's great.'  But the combination of the opponents and Burke accounting for so many of those yards tempered my happiness.  Still, I think the two things we know for sure are that the O line is better than it was week 2 and the combination of Mitchell/Minnich/Woods gives them a lot of fresh legs at RB.

With the way the schedule set up I can't help but wonder how much both of these teams have been keeping under their hats in terms of plays/formations/schemes.  Neither have had much need to open up the playbook the last month plus.   

[Dr. Acula]

They do some over/unders on the NCAC board and I thought it might be fun to do a quick one over here.  Obviously I just made these up, so don't yell at me tomorrow when they're way off!

Cartel Brooks rushing yards:  109.5

Kevin Burke total TD:  3.5

Most carries by any one Mount RB:  14.5

Michael Mees passing yards:  199.5

Longest Berg offensive play:  44.5

Berg turnovers:  1.5

Berg total offense:  369.5

Mount leading rusher:  79.5

[HScoach]

If Brooks doesn't rush for a lot more than 109, its going to be ugly for Heidi.

[Dr. Acula]

Yeah, I'd hammer the over on that one myself, but I was trying to guesstimate the room's expectations.  My gut would have been more like 139.5 to make that choice hard.  He's going to get a ton of carries most likely.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Cartel Brooks rushing yards:  109.5 -OVER

Kevin Burke total TD:  3.5 - OVER

Most carries by any one Mount RB:  14.5 - OVER

Michael Mees passing yards:  199.5 - UNDER

Longest Berg offensive play:  44.5 - OVER

Berg turnovers:  1.5 - OVER

Berg total offense:  369.5 - UNDER

Mount leading rusher:  79.5 - OVER