FB: Ohio Athletic Conference

[Pat Coleman]

Yesterday you were all in on these rankings.

[Craft_Beermeister]

I streamed the game and noticed several times that when Fulford was forced out and chose to run he seems to prefer inside as opposed to outside. On one Petrucelli had the LB screened inside and there was 20 yards of green down the sideline - Fulford cut inside right into the LB.

i agree on the TE comments 100%. I saw Mount get into tempo on 2 drives and they loooked good until - drop over the middle, and again with a drop on a seam route.

Any reason as to why the JV game is being cancelled?

I meant to ask why the JV game was cancelled but I didn't get around to asking.  I heard Linda Kehres mention to her daughter Jan that her and LK were free tomorrow because the JV game was cancelled.

[Craft_Beermeister]

Yesterday you were all in on these rankings.

Pat

From reviewing Hansen Rankings web pages it is obvious that Logan puts a lot of time into his work which is not a ton of analytical data he collects. As an engineer I have a lot of appreciation for analytical approach to predicting outcomes and rankings. 

I can see UWW being ranked in an analytically influenced poll as high as 8' but I suspect that most folks would not rank UWW that high based on win loss record, but aperently based on Logan's modeling he does. 

UWW is having a down year and I think all agree that they won't make the playoffs based on how the selection process works, but if they did I could see them favored for the first 2 or 3 rounds and maybe more depending on how the brackets are setup.  I'm a Mount fan but I still have a lot of respect for UWW.

[Desertraider]

I don't want to speculate but no one really saw UWW coming and suddenly they were top dog and LAX disappeared into the basement. 4 games down and UWW in 1 - 3. Ouch. I have read their fan comments off and on about coaching and scheme....has UWW been replaced by UWO for the foreseeable future?

Logan Hansen of Hansen Ratings just put out his updated DIII top 25 rankings and has UWW ranked at number 8.  Logan does his rankings based on analytical data and not win loss record alone.  I must admit his rankings are unique. The top 4 in his updated rankings are in order UMU, MHB, St Tomas, UWO.

I looked at the Hansen rankings but they fail the "gut" test. No offense Logan. I get that mathematically UWW is still a formidable foe - but my gut is telling me different. As Mike Ditka said last week regardling some overhyped NFL team (I think it was the Giants) "at the end of the day you are what your record says you are". To add to that, some super genius has a signature line on here about statistics and bikinis. 

The Top 25 on this site and Massey and Hansen - its all good and interesting but most of the time Mount is rated pretty low due to SOS or some other matrix. Yet at the end of the year, for 24 straight years now (I believe), it comes down to the final four and Mount is there - ALWAYS. I guess its my way of saying I view it all for entertainment and nothing else. What I would like to see on Hansen, and maybe it is there and I can't find it, is a breakdown on playoff projections based against actual playoff results over the last say 10, 20 years. How many times was Mount projected to go deep or win it all etc.?

[Pat Coleman]

The Top 25 on this site and Massey and Hansen - its all good and interesting but most of the time Mount is rated pretty low due to SOS or some other matrix.

Most of the time Mount is rated pretty low in our poll? 

[Desertraider]

Yesterday you were all in on these rankings.

Pat

From reviewing Hansen Rankings web pages it is obvious that Logan puts a lot of time into his work which is not a ton of analytical data he collects. As an engineer I have a lot of appreciation for analytical approach to predicting outcomes and rankings. 

I can see UWW being ranked in an analytically influenced poll as high as 8' but I suspect that most folks would not rank UWW that high based on win loss record, but aperently based on Logan's modeling he does. 

UWW is having a down year and I think all agree that they won't make the playoffs based on how the selection process works, but if they did I could see them favored for the first 2 or 3 rounds and maybe more depending on how the brackets are setup.  I'm a Mount fan but I still have a lot of respect for UWW.

BTW - I have nothing but respect for UWW. This is not a knock on them. But they are not playing well and I don't think they would necessarily be favored in any round based on how they are playing right now. In 2 weeks it may appear differently.

[Desertraider]

The Top 25 on this site and Massey and Hansen - its all good and interesting but most of the time Mount is rated pretty low due to SOS or some other matrix.

Most of the time Mount is rated pretty low in our poll? 

Yea! #2! What is wrong with you???
No. It is late and I meant to say that the top 25 is more for entertainment (for me) and Massey and Hansen seem to have Mount ranked pretty low most of the time.

And on that note - no more wine for me. 

[Craft_Beermeister]

The Top 25 on this site and Massey and Hansen - its all good and interesting but most of the time Mount is rated pretty low due to SOS or some other matrix.

Most of the time Mount is rated pretty low in our poll? 

Yea! #2! What is wrong with you???
No. It is late and I meant to say that the top 25 is more for entertainment (for me) and Massey and Hansen seem to have Mount ranked pretty low most of the time.

And on that note - no more wine for me. 

Hansen has at Mount ranked # 1 from preseason on. 

On the Hansen site they also include a composite page for most of the other ranking sites. The composite for last week can be found at https://www.hansenratings.com/composite-rankings

[merlecanlas]

Any reason as to why the JV game is being cancelled?

I believe the JV was to play W&J.  W&J's varsity game against Thiel was postpone until Monday due to some illness at Thiel, I think.  Makes sense for the W&J JV to cancel the day before a varsity game.


Some thoughts on Saturday:
1) Sloppy, hard week of practice will fix it prior to Berg
2) The big TE transfer looks good, but has stone hands.  Use Moxie or a 4th WR (Herrington or Haynes or some stud frosh nobody knows about)
3) Best WR group in D3, by far
4) I was rooting for UWW to make the playoffs and get sent to Alliance again, would have been "fun"
5) #4 Demarco Haynes is BJ Mitchell 2.0, he will kill teams in space
6) Justin Hill could be the next MUC WR in the NFL.  He will be scary good with two more years of the weight room.
7) Bring on Berg, the Raiders are champing at the bit for a big game.  I'd love to see this young offense come out with a purpose on Sat.  D3's fastest, perhaps best defense will show up of course
8) what's UMHB doing throwing 40 out of 58 plays in a blowout? where's that ESPN hack that loved to rip on Mount?

[Pat Coleman]

It's not like UMHB won by 50 points, or even 40. I didn't even bat an eye at whatever a team wants to do in a 44-10 win. Especially with a team giving his QB his first start.

[merlecanlas]

It's not like UMHB won by 50 points, or even 40. I didn't even bat an eye at whatever a team wants to do in a 44-10 win. Especially with a team giving his QB his first start.

just shocking with their stud RB (6 carries?), why not run the ball a little once you're up 30-0, 37-3, etc?  I get the new QB thing, but wouldn't he be better off practicing against the UMHB defense then against that defense.  I didn't watch the game, but the stats are a little weird

[Pat Coleman]

They're definitely unusual for what we'd have expected from UMHB in terms of style of play, especially six or seven years ago, but they're not the same run-first-run-second-run-third team they used to be.

[merlecanlas]

They're definitely unusual for what we'd have expected from UMHB in terms of style of play, especially six or seven years ago, but they're not the same run-first-run-second-run-third team they used to be.

Obviously.  Just odd.  53/22, 38/21, 32/37 rush/pass splits in weeks 1-3 and then 18/40.  Not very UMHB-like in any era.  Maybe a little "wrinkle" for the HSU game coming up.  Anyways, back to the OAC and John Carroll's huge win over Wilmington

[Dr. Acula]

Thoughts from yesterday:

As a few have already said, I agree that the offense looked a little choppy.  Just didn't seem to have a good rhythm.  It seemed like part of that was intentional with the very deliberate pace.  Give ONU some credit for limiting them to just a couple of big plays really.  Fulford looked a little off with his accuracy, but I'm really nitpicking there.  I'm just comparing it to his surgical accuracy in previous games.

I really like the purpose JEM is running with recently.  He was driving the pile, forcing multiple guys to tackle him, etc.  A+ effort every time he touched the ball.  I actually like them splitting carries like this.  Keeps both guys fresh, allows you to go with the hot hand or match up by situation.  Both guys are averaging over 8 ypc so why would you not?

I could not believe Petruccelli didn't get injured on the play he fumbled the ball.  It looked on the replay like he got his cleat caught and got pushed back violently bending his knee.  He hobbled off, but was back in the next series so thankfully it appears he is fine.

A couple running situations I noticed #47 out there as some kind of fullback/H back/TE.  I had to look it up because I wasn't familiar with the # and the kid was a tank.  Soph Joe Fornaro.  5'11" 250 TE.  Sounds like a guy that could do a little lead blocking for you.

I know he missed his first PAT of the year, but I was thinking while I was watching the game what a luxury Louthan is at kicker.  He's so good from 45 yds in.  I've watched enough other D3 games to be thankful for a dude that is basically automatic on PATs and you'd feel very comfortable with him kicking a 40 yarder for you to win a game.

Saving the best for last...the defense.  They've been doing it all year, but they stole the show yesterday.  The game went kind of the opposite of how I expected.  I was down on ONU's defense so I was expecting points galore.  But I thought ONU would push Mount some with their skill guys.  Mount just suffocated them.  Specifically I thought ONU would be able to pass some on Mount.  I didn't think Williams would have much success running it.  Mount's LBs and secondary are too fast for him to have tons of success because the D line is going to do their job and clog things up.  The other thing I was very impressed with is how well Mount's secondary tackles in the open field.  The LBs are of course great tacklers, but their secondary is really good too. 

Next week will be fun.  Stoyle can sling it and Magee may be the best WR in the OAC.   

[Raider 68]

Dr. Acula,

Good post +k, Next week will be a good one, long practices this week to correct some mental errors and get ready for another
passing QB. Not sure what to make of the 72-14 JCU win, does it mean that JCU has started to jell or was it about time for
the offense to regain some form. IMHO, Heidelberg is ahead of them regardless of next week against Mount.