FB: Ohio Athletic Conference

[UMUplayerdad]

Desertraider, you have an email and a personal message...

Got it and hit ya back with a PM. Thanks for the info and I hope the OTT can get healthy before its too late.

UMUplayerdad- That's what I like about the D3football rankings (a tip of the hat to Pat and crew). They seem to be based on what they see week-to-week and what they KNOW (like Mount stands a pretty good shot at being in the playoffs and should probably be penciled in somewhere in the top 4 by now). I think too many of the polls rely on mathmatics. I am not familiar with massey but any site that gives Wilmington a 25% chance of beating anyone other than Marietta lacks credibility in my book.

I guess what bothered me is how wilmington could have that high a chance and then predict a close game at home with UMU the very next week?   Wilmington had a 0% chance against us at home(last week) how does that translate to a 25% against heidelberg and then predict a close hberg/UMU game? What kinda statistical model comes up with that? if he predicted Hberg had a 95/100% chance this week and a close game with us it  makes sense or if he REALLY thinks wilmington has a chance(no offense to wilmington) then Hberg against us at home shouldnt be close(not posting bulletin board BS......  "what if" only) and I SWEAR the three years I followed him in high school ball..... in a pretty competitive 1200kids/school conference he was right in ALL 42 kid's games games and was 90% right in conference overall    in a 16 team conference. All that being said I have lost a lotta faith in his site.  If you all get a chance nose around his site- all sports are covered, all obscure pro football leagues, lacrosse, pro women basketball. And Re: the OAC I'd like to think that other than muskinghum and wilmington the other opponents werent supposed to be blow outs(remember ONU mudbowl last year) and one thing after watching LK for 4 years? The boys  never seem to look beyond the next game-and that aint easy in any level of sports......

[mr_mom]

Don't forget where you parked your car (Dude!  Sweet!)
Don't forget the last four of your SSN.
Don't forget to get your picks in!

[Desertraider]

Desertraider, you have an email and a personal message...

Got it and hit ya back with a PM. Thanks for the info and I hope the OTT can get healthy before its too late.

UMUplayerdad- That's what I like about the D3football rankings (a tip of the hat to Pat and crew). They seem to be based on what they see week-to-week and what they KNOW (like Mount stands a pretty good shot at being in the playoffs and should probably be penciled in somewhere in the top 4 by now). I think too many of the polls rely on mathmatics. I am not familiar with massey but any site that gives Wilmington a 25% chance of beating anyone other than Marietta lacks credibility in my book.

I guess what bothered me is how wilmington could have that high a chance and then predict a close game at home with UMU the very next week?   Wilmington had a 0% chance against us at home(last week) how does that translate to a 25% against heidelberg and then predict a close hberg/UMU game? What kinda statistical model comes up with that? if he predicted Hberg had a 95/100% chance this week and a close game with us it  makes sense or if he REALLY thinks wilmington has a chance(no offense to wilmington) then Hberg against us at home shouldnt be close(not posting bulletin board BS......  "what if" only)

It makes no sense to me either. I was thinking that maybe his model figures in history - as in historically Berg has not done much so therefore it may account for that in Berg games regardless of the previous 2 games (at the time they played Wilma the Berg was 2-0) . If you look at the previous Berg/Wilma games you get a 36-3 and a 17-14 within the last 4 years and when Berg and Wilma played this year no one really knew if Berg was legit yet. History on Wilma and Mount would automatically give them no-shot so maybe the model accounts for that. However by the time Berg and Mount play the model adjusts to take into account this years games and has a larger body of data resulting in a closer prediction. I do not know much about the model used though - so really it is all a guess. I think Berg is better than last year - how much better I do not know. Last year they had a good team and lost to Mount 56-7. Is Berg so much better that they can do essentially a 49 point turn around - I doubt it. But the game looks to be a great one on paper. 

[HScoach]

What little chance Otterbein had to make it a game is gone.   Will explain later.

[Desertraider]

What little chance Otterbein had to make it a game is gone.   Will explain later.

Got a heads up on that one and you are absolutelty correct.

#1 Middlebury up on #14 Bates by a score of ? 1-0? The livestats say it is 0-0 but the D3 board has a 1-0 game. Guess it in the top of the first?

[UMUplayerdad]

Desertraider, you have an email and a personal message...

Got it and hit ya back with a PM. Thanks for the info and I hope the OTT can get healthy before its too late.

UMUplayerdad- That's what I like about the D3football rankings (a tip of the hat to Pat and crew). They seem to be based on what they see week-to-week and what they KNOW (like Mount stands a pretty good shot at being in the playoffs and should probably be penciled in somewhere in the top 4 by now). I think too many of the polls rely on mathmatics. I am not familiar with massey but any site that gives Wilmington a 25% chance of beating anyone other than Marietta lacks credibility in my book.

I guess what bothered me is how wilmington could have that high a chance and then predict a close game at home with UMU the very next week?   Wilmington had a 0% chance against us at home(last week) how does that translate to a 25% against heidelberg and then predict a close hberg/UMU game? What kinda statistical model comes up with that? if he predicted Hberg had a 95/100% chance this week and a close game with us it  makes sense or if he REALLY thinks wilmington has a chance(no offense to wilmington) then Hberg against us at home shouldnt be close(not posting bulletin board BS......  "what if" only)

It makes no sense to me either. I was thinking that maybe his model figures in history - as in historically Berg has not done much so therefore it may account for that in Berg games regardless of the previous 2 games (at the time they played Wilma the Berg was 2-0) . If you look at the previous Berg/Wilma games you get a 36-3 and a 17-14 within the last 4 years and when Berg and Wilma played this year no one really knew if Berg was legit yet. History on Wilma and Mount would automatically give them no-shot so maybe the model accounts for that. However by the time Berg and Mount play the model adjusts to take into account this years games and has a larger body of data resulting in a closer prediction. I do not know much about the model used though - so really it is all a guess. I think Berg is better than last year - how much better I do not know. Last year they had a good team and lost to Mount 56-7. Is Berg so much better that they can do essentially a 49 point turn around - I doubt it. But the game looks to be a great one on paper.

Not wanting to dig up a dead horse just to beat it and bury it...... but massey had us 90% plus over ONU? Now, his site is so busy no way he knew anything bout that game last year except UMU almost lost----not field conditions etc. I know I go on and on about his site but DAMN he kept me in drinks and bar burgers for 3 years  in 06/07/08    heck his SCORES were real REAL close. I sorta feel like I just found  out superman has a shoplifting fetish. I can't imagine he can know much about D3 rosters-who graduates/leaves etc    I am gonna kill some time and see how he does on ohio high school football    OK I will get of the rating craps, there's games to be played-I figure if I keep on massey ratings the -K's will start flying again

[Desertraider]

All the talk about OTT and injuries and they go right down the field on first drive before giving up a pick at the 17. Raiders take it right back down for a score. Lattimore takes it in from the 1, 7-0 Raiders. Mounts pass D is gonna have to step up and the center/QB are gonna have to make sure they are on the same page. Had an early snap that seemed to suprise Burke and he fell on it for a loss of 4.

[Desertraider]

Raiders up 21-0 in 2nd. I am seeing the Berg in a 7-7 tie with the mighty Muskies??? Was not expecting that one to be a tight game. Enjoy y'all I am off to do some chores. Roll Raiders!

[UMUplayerdad]

All the talk about OTT and injuries and they go right down the field on first drive before giving up a pick at the 17. Raiders take it right back down for a score. Lattimore takes it in from the 1, 7-0 Raiders. Mounts pass D is gonna have to step up and the center/QB are gonna have to make sure they are on the same page. Had an early snap that seemed to suprise Burke and he fell on it for a loss of 4.

I think I would try a few off the edge runs with that speedy freshman rb    ott d seems bunched up?  and NO that's not a second guess, just a suggestion made during half time     btw the game is streamed live on ott site(I would listen to mt broadcast tho    and re the musky/berg game I might owe an apology to massey site

[Desertraider]

Berg up 21-7 in 3rd...so that one is turing into what I expected. I don't if the term "upset" applies here - but an upset brewing in Wisconsin. UWW down 21-0 at home to Osh-Kosh. If UWW loses this and has 2 losses on the year - how does that hurt them playoff wise? I mean that would put Osh-Kosh in drivers seat in the WIAC. Assuming UWW has 2 losses and doesn't win WIAC do they make the cut?

[Dr. Acula]

BW kicks a FG to take a 10-9 lead on Cap at half.  And it's not a fluke...Cap outgained them in the first half.  Insert your flaming pile joke of choice here.

[amonachino]

UWW down 21-0 at half.  No1 QB of UWW is replaced by 2nd teamer.  Announcers have said they have not seen  a warhawk game like this.

[mr_mom]

Whitewater with 1 first down, 4 yards rushing at half.

These are not your parents' Warhawks.

[Desertraider]

I hate to say it but UWW needs to get their head outta their arse! Mount winning #11 is sweet - but Mount winning #11 while stopping UWW from winning 4 in a row is bliss! Come on UWW!

IN other news Mount is crushing OTT is a real sloppy performance. I gotta say that Mount so far has seemed out of sinc and not in complete rhythm. Is their such a thing as a sloppy 41 point lead?

[Desertraider]

Wow Denton gets another one. That kid is incredible. (-23) yards on previous PR and then bang! Still a sloppy Mount game by my account...but 48-0 will work.