FB: Ohio Athletic Conference

[edward de vere]

So, I have had issues trying to reply on the PodCast page, and this person named cjvirnig is blowing up UMU for NEVER ending up on the wrong side of the bracket ... aka, "Group of Death".  So, not sure what metrics this person uses to rank brackets, but -- possibly randomly -- here are the average Massey rankings for each quadrant of the bracket this year.

MHB:  Favorites: 15, Underdogs: 92, Total 107
UWW: Favorites: 18, Underdogs: 101, Total 119
UMU:  Favorites: 9.3, Underdogs: 49, Total 59
BSU:  Favorites: 21, Underdogs 109, Total 130

If you know Massey, you'll know that smaller is better.  The UMU bracket was by far the toughest to get through.  So, where do we stand after two rounds (with updated rankings):

MHB:  St. John's [3] + Mary Hardin-Baylor [1] = 4
UWW: Bethel [9] + Whitewater [2] = 11
UMU:  Muhlenberg [10] + Mount Union [4] = 14
BSU:  RPI [27] + Johns Hopkins [7] = 34

OK ... after two rounds, a couple favorites have disappeared and the UMU bracket is now longer the toughest.  But it is not the easiest, and when the playoffs started, it was the "Group of Death".

Again, my apologies since I rarely post anything but raw stats, but that is where I live.     And if anyone knows this cjvirnig, please forward this to him.  Thanks!

Last I checked Massey ranked Trinity of Connecticut #4 in the country.

Which is all you need to know about Massey.

Just checked Massey again; Trinity now #5.

Which is all you  need to know about Massey.

That's because the only play within their conference.  They are, with the models he uses, essentially no different than an entirely different NCAA level randomly dumped into DIII. You just ignore them.

Yeah you can't discount Massey because of the NESCAC skewed ratings, however Hansen ratings would probably be better for mr moms argument

If Massey ranks Trinity of Connecticut #5, I can not only discount him, I can toss him in the circular file.  (Yes, him, personally.)

[mr_mom]

Yes, EDV, I ignore Massey when it comes to the Glassbowl Division.    And despite how much I depend on stats, I'm not a fan.

[OzJohnnie]

OK readers ... thanks for not letting me rely on one rating ... here is the same eval using Hansen:

MHB:  Favorites: 15.8, Underdogs: 83.3, Total 99.0
UWW: Favorites: 13.3, Underdogs: 73.5, Total 86.8
UMU:  Favorites: 16.8, Underdogs: 34.0, Total 50.8
BSU:  Favorites: 19.3, Underdogs 91.5, Total 110.8

In this case, a little weaker favorites, but still much harsher underdogs.  I stand by my initial evaluation.

JamToTommie ... I did include MUC's rankings as I was evaluating the strength of the brackets, because that was what he was comparing.  Not Mount's path, but the quarter bracket itself.  His own definition.

What does favourite and underdog mean?  Which teams are in which group?

[mr_mom]

OK readers ... thanks for not letting me rely on one rating ... here is the same eval using Hansen:

MHB:  Favorites: 15.8, Underdogs: 83.3, Total 99.0
UWW: Favorites: 13.3, Underdogs: 73.5, Total 86.8
UMU:  Favorites: 16.8, Underdogs: 34.0, Total 50.8
BSU:  Favorites: 19.3, Underdogs 91.5, Total 110.8

In this case, a little weaker favorites, but still much harsher underdogs.  I stand by my initial evaluation.

JamToTommie ... I did include MUC's rankings as I was evaluating the strength of the brackets, because that was what he was comparing.  Not Mount's path, but the quarter bracket itself.  His own definition.

What does favourite and underdog mean?  Which teams are in which group?

OZ ... you are killing me.  I'm trying to make this as simple as possible.  If Massey makes them a fave, they are a fave in their computations.  Same for Hansen.   

[OzJohnnie]

OK readers ... thanks for not letting me rely on one rating ... here is the same eval using Hansen:

MHB:  Favorites: 15.8, Underdogs: 83.3, Total 99.0
UWW: Favorites: 13.3, Underdogs: 73.5, Total 86.8
UMU:  Favorites: 16.8, Underdogs: 34.0, Total 50.8
BSU:  Favorites: 19.3, Underdogs 91.5, Total 110.8

In this case, a little weaker favorites, but still much harsher underdogs.  I stand by my initial evaluation.

JamToTommie ... I did include MUC's rankings as I was evaluating the strength of the brackets, because that was what he was comparing.  Not Mount's path, but the quarter bracket itself.  His own definition.

What does favourite and underdog mean?  Which teams are in which group?

OZ ... you are killing me.  I'm trying to make this as simple as possible.  If Massey makes them a fave, they are a fave in their computations.  Same for Hansen.   

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uio1J2PKzLI

[archgemini24]

So, I have had issues trying to reply on the PodCast page, and this person named cjvirnig is blowing up UMU for NEVER ending up on the wrong side of the bracket ... aka, "Group of Death".  So, not sure what metrics this person uses to rank brackets, but -- possibly randomly -- here are the average Massey rankings for each quadrant of the bracket this year.

MHB:  Favorites: 15, Underdogs: 92, Total 107
UWW: Favorites: 18, Underdogs: 101, Total 119
UMU:  Favorites: 9.3, Underdogs: 49, Total 59
BSU:  Favorites: 21, Underdogs 109, Total 130

If you know Massey, you'll know that smaller is better.  The UMU bracket was by far the toughest to get through.  So, where do we stand after two rounds (with updated rankings):

MHB:  St. John's [3] + Mary Hardin-Baylor [1] = 4
UWW: Bethel [9] + Whitewater [2] = 11
UMU:  Muhlenberg [10] + Mount Union [4] = 14
BSU:  RPI [27] + Johns Hopkins [7] = 34

OK ... after two rounds, a couple favorites have disappeared and the UMU bracket is now longer the toughest.  But it is not the easiest, and when the playoffs started, it was the "Group of Death".

Again, my apologies since I rarely post anything but raw stats, but that is where I live.     And if anyone knows this cjvirnig, please forward this to him.  Thanks!

When the brackets came out I looked at the D3.com rankings to see if Mount's path was at least "fair" regarding the ranking of teams the overall number 1 seed should be playing. As it turns out, if chalk had held, and you call a non-ranked team 32, Mount would have played 32(Denison)-17(W&J)-8(JCU)-4(Brockport)-2(UMHB), which is almost perfectly fair.

If Mount gets the benefit of anything versus the other powers regarding bracketing, it is probably due to their geographical location, and being within 500 miles of most of the d3 schools means they are never subjected to the "island" treatment. Perhaps a bigger issue is the gap between the top 3-5 teams (maybe top-10 if you tilt your head and stare it the right way) and everyone else, meaning if 6 end up in one half of the bracket (UMHB, HSU, St. John's, Whitewater, NCU, Whitworth), and 4 in the other (Mount, Brockport, Frostburg State, and JCU), the bracket looks really lop-sided.

[OzJohnnie]

If Mount gets the benefit of anything versus the other powers regarding bracketing, it is probably dueto their geographical location, and being within 500 miles of most of the d3 schools means they are never subjected to the "island" treatment. Perhaps a bigger issue is the gap between the top 3-5 teams (maybe top-10 if you tilt your head and stare it the right way) and everyone else, meaning if 6 end up in one half of the bracket (UMHB, HSU, St. John's, Whitewater, NCU, Whitworth), and 4 in the other (Mount, Brockport, Frostburg State, and JCU), the bracket looks really lop-sided.

Particularly when the brackets look like this in the quarters and one side had all the eliminations coming from other teams on the list while the other side had all the eliminations come from massive underdogs.

Essentially, summarise it like this.  Unless Mount gets some competition from the first list then they are certain to get through the second list.  In fact, only twice has Mount has failed to make the Stagg in the last 18 years and that was when they encountered someone (UMHB) from the first list in the semi's.

[s e 76]

would you rather be in mount bracket

[Craft_Beermeister]

SaintsFAN

Good to hear from you. It's fun playing someone for the 1st time. Never are quite sure what to expect. Your comments certainly help us understand our opponent better. And, Go Raiders. 😃 🏈

Mount Union is 8-0 in the quarterfinals against first-time opponents with the last being a 70-37 win over Frostburg State last season.

[raiderguy]

would you rather be in mount bracket

Good point, would any of you rather be there? That win in the quarter finals last year was with the 2nd string QB too. He was 12-16 for 355yards 6 passing td's and one on the ground. And look where he is now ....UMHB out for the season.
You still have to win them all against whoever you face along the way. I maintain it is harder to keep your edge if you don't face a strong opposition leading up to the Stagg. Look what Mount had to do to get there last year. Second team QB in the quarter finals and a huge deficit again st Oshkosh in the semifinals. I think it set us up just right to face MHB in the Stagg.

[raiderguy]

OK readers ... thanks for not letting me rely on one rating ... here is the same eval using Hansen:

MHB:  Favorites: 15.8, Underdogs: 83.3, Total 99.0
UWW: Favorites: 13.3, Underdogs: 73.5, Total 86.8
UMU:  Favorites: 16.8, Underdogs: 34.0, Total 50.8
BSU:  Favorites: 19.3, Underdogs 91.5, Total 110.8

In this case, a little weaker favorites, but still much harsher underdogs.  I stand by my initial evaluation.

JamToTommie ... I did include MUC's rankings as I was evaluating the strength of the brackets, because that was what he was comparing.  Not Mount's path, but the quarter bracket itself.  His own definition.

What does favourite and underdog mean?  Which teams are in which group?

OZ ... you are killing me.  I'm trying to make this as simple as possible.  If Massey makes them a fave, they are a fave in their computations.  Same for Hansen.   

And as I always say..........numbers never lie and only liars use numbers!😄

[MUC57]

SaintsFAN

Good to hear from you. It's fun playing someone for the 1st time. Never are quite sure what to expect. Your comments certainly help us understand our opponent better. And, Go Raiders. 😃 🏈

Mount Union is 8-0 in the quarterfinals against first-time opponents with the last being a 70-37 win over Frostburg State last season. A

Craft

You're really good. Who would have thought to research that stat? Makes me feel good all over.
Go Raiders! 🏈🍺

[Desertraider]

On all the bracket stuff it is what it is. If Brockport and Frostburg and JCU hadn't been looking ahead....especially JCU then Mounts road would have been tougher. But they were looking ahead IMO. That's what has made Mount different. They dont look ahead and you dont see those upsets very often....maybe overlooked UMHB in that first meeting. But to say Mount gets the easier bracket annoys me and ignores that 80% of the teams are east and have to get moved around which doesn't leave much room for other teams getting moved this way. At least that is how I see it.

[Desertraider]

Plus at the end of it all There Can Be Only One! Somebody put in a Highlander GIF...I dont know how too.

[02 Warhawk]

On all the bracket stuff it is what it is. If Brockport and Frostburg and JCU hadn't been looking ahead....especially JCU then Mounts road would have been tougher. But they were looking ahead IMO. That's what has made Mount different. They dont look ahead and you dont see those upsets very often....maybe overlooked UMHB in that first meeting. But to say Mount gets the easier bracket annoys me and ignores that 80% of the teams are east and have to get moved around which doesn't leave much room for other teams getting moved this way. At least that is how I see it.

Even Pat and Keith mentioned (in so many words) in their podcasts that Mount's biggest competition lies on the other side of the bracket. Mount can sleep walk to the Stagg Bowl, it doesn't matter if they're look ahead or not

I don't think they were looking ahead past MHB that year. MHB just had the best team in the country in 2016.