FB: Ohio Athletic Conference

[jknezek]

jknezek

Will you be at the game? Been reading your posts for a long time. Would love to say "Hi". 

Unfortunately we always head to my in-laws in south FL the week of Thanksgiving. I'd love to shake hands, but I doubt I'll ever make a playoff game.

The Words "unfortunately" and "south FL" really don't belong in the same sentence. Especially in November! 

Generally yes. But you start adding words like 12hour drive each way, in-laws, and the fact that they live in one of the few parts of South FL better left to the ants and mosquitos and far from the beaches and theme parks and it is less attractive. I live in AL, so it's not like I'm going from freezing to hot either.

[WRMUalum13]

Note on W&L from the ODAC board:

"No punter or kicker yesterday due to injuries. Another 2 linemen down. Back up qb who is now starting dinged. Brutal"

Nof having a punter could weirdly  be an advantage for W&L since it'll force them to gofor it on every 4th down. Which is statistically smarter than punting as often as most teams do.

If I were an outmatched playoff opponent against Mount I'd never punt and probably try an onside kick, anything to get an extra possession.

Agreed.  I can't believe that more teams don't try this against Mount who are overmatched. I saw a local HS game a couple of years ago where the teams were closely matched, but one knew they couldn't stop the others offense.  They trieat d a variety of inside kicks every kickoff and they got 2 of them.  It was the difference in the game.

Apples and oranges I'm afraid.  I think giving Mount a short field all day could turn a 56-0 game into a 91-0 game. I'm not sure many coaches want to do that to their players or their program.

Mount would take the foot off the gas, it would just be a matter of how quickly it go to 56-0 IMO (not that I think the W&L game will be that lopsided,). This Mount Team has a lot to prove so I'm not even sure it'll be a blowout to be honest.

Regarding the punting thing... I  think we tend to undervalue how important having posession of the ball is versus field position. Below is my understanding  of the math based on some CFB probability of scoring data I found here: https://watchstadium.com/calculating-college-footballs-scoring-rate-by-yard-line-07-17-2019/ ( I can't figure out hyperlinks on the forum). Obviously it's a  huge generalization and doesn't take into account the individual teams or momentum, but hopefully you all can see my point.

I think the way to look at the punting thing (in this scenario against a better Mount Union team)  is what's the value of keeping your drive alive, vs the value of spotting Mount 35 yards (approx. D3 punter average)

Let's say Team X is playing Mount Union and is on their own 35 yard line. If they punt, they give Mount the Ball at Mount's 30 yard line (on average). From there Mount Union would have about a 40% chance of scoring on the drive. If however Team X went for it on 4th down and failed to convert, Mount would get the Ball at Team X's 35 yard line and would have about a 73% chance of scoring on the drive.

So punting instead of failing to convert in that scenario reduces Mount Union's chances of scoring by 33%. On the flipside, Before punting team X had about a 44% chance of scoring on the drive from their own 35... and by punting they've reduced their own scoring chances from 44% to 0%.

Obviously how far the 4th down conversion is plays a role too, but based on the scenario above I'm thinking 4th and short should a go for it for most teams from most field positions.

Anyway, the point I'm trying to make is that against an elite D3 offense, it's probably better to try and keep them off the field at all costs rather than worry about field position.

[emma17]

^^
Interesting discussion. I understand your point and I'm still "on the fence" with the idea (although I'm not a fan of kicking at all in football).

One issue w your analysis above: I don't think Team X ever had a 44% chance of scoring from their own 35 against Mt.

[WRMUalum13]

^^
Interesting discussion. I understand your point and I'm still "on the fence" with the idea (although I'm not a fan of kicking at all in football).

One issue w your analysis above: I don't think Team X ever had a 44% chance of scoring from their own 35 against Mt.

Yeah the percentages aren't perfect for sure, but in this case Mount Unions percentages of scoring from their own 30 would also be improved so it kinda balances out.

[bleedpurple]

Note on W&L from the ODAC board:

"No punter or kicker yesterday due to injuries. Another 2 linemen down. Back up qb who is now starting dinged. Brutal"

Nof having a punter could weirdly  be an advantage for W&L since it'll force them to gofor it on every 4th down. Which is statistically smarter than punting as often as most teams do.

If I were an outmatched playoff opponent against Mount I'd never punt and probably try an onside kick, anything to get an extra possession.

Agreed.  I can't believe that more teams don't try this against Mount who are overmatched. I saw a local HS game a couple of years ago where the teams were closely matched, but one knew they couldn't stop the others offense.  They trieat d a variety of inside kicks every kickoff and they got 2 of them.  It was the difference in the game.

Apples and oranges I'm afraid.  I think giving Mount a short field all day could turn a 56-0 game into a 91-0 game. I'm not sure many coaches want to do that to their players or their program.

Mount would take the foot off the gas, it would just be a matter of how quickly it go to 56-0 IMO (not that I think the W&L game will be that lopsided,). This Mount Team has a lot to prove so I'm not even sure it'll be a blowout to be honest.

Regarding the punting thing... I  think we tend to undervalue how important having posession of the ball is versus field position. Below is my understanding  of the math based on some CFB probability of scoring data I found here: https://watchstadium.com/calculating-college-footballs-scoring-rate-by-yard-line-07-17-2019/ ( I can't figure out hyperlinks on the forum). Obviously it's a  huge generalization and doesn't take into account the individual teams or momentum, but hopefully you all can see my point.

I think the way to look at the punting thing (in this scenario against a better Mount Union team)  is what's the value of keeping your drive alive, vs the value of spotting Mount 35 yards (approx. D3 punter average)

Let's say Team X is playing Mount Union and is on their own 35 yard line. If they punt, they give Mount the Ball at Mount's 30 yard line (on average). From there Mount Union would have about a 40% chance of scoring on the drive. If however Team X went for it on 4th down and failed to convert, Mount would get the Ball at Team X's 35 yard line and would have about a 73% chance of scoring on the drive.

So punting instead of failing to convert in that scenario reduces Mount Union's chances of scoring by 33%. On the flipside, Before punting team X had about a 44% chance of scoring on the drive from their own 35... and by punting they've reduced their own scoring chances from 44% to 0%.

Obviously how far the 4th down conversion is plays a role too, but based on the scenario above I'm thinking 4th and short should a go for it for most teams from most field positions.

Anyway, the point I'm trying to make is that against an elite D3 offense, it's probably better to try and keep them off the field at all costs rather than worry about field position.

I think the argument is stronger if you put parameters on it. In other words, if the underdog chose to "go for it" on 4th or 3 or less every single time, then MAYBE I see some validity to the argument. But even then I am also on the fence.

But that is altogether different than not having a punter AT ALL, which I think was indicated at the beginning of this conversation. Not having a punter at all means going for it on 4th and 12 or 4th and 15. And lets face it, against Mount, many teams will face those situations.So, not having the option to punt in those situations don't feel like an advantage to me.

[archgemini24]

Oddly enough, this entire conversation about trying to steal or extend possessions made me think about what d3football posted about Mount Union in the analysis of their bracket.

They did not really list anything in the "You'll know they're playing poorly if:" part, but there is something that most of us on the board have been saying since at least 2018: If lack of pressure and an "ok (or poor) by Mount standards" secondary keeps the defense from turning wins on first down into wins on second down. When teams can turn 2nd-and-10-or-more into 3rd-and-4-or-less or convert to first downs outright, it becomes the best way to stop Mount Union's offense. As an aside, the team does not seem to have a lot of juice when they don't get those stops.

I know this is not new or news to any team at any level, but when Mount finds themselves in dogfights or wondering why they have not put a team down as early as expected, you can usually point to this.

[WRMUalum13]

Note on W&L from the ODAC board:

"No punter or kicker yesterday due to injuries. Another 2 linemen down. Back up qb who is now starting dinged. Brutal"

Nof having a punter could weirdly  be an advantage for W&L since it'll force them to gofor it on every 4th down. Which is statistically smarter than punting as often as most teams do.

If I were an outmatched playoff opponent against Mount I'd never punt and probably try an onside kick, anything to get an extra possession.

Agreed.  I can't believe that more teams don't try this against Mount who are overmatched. I saw a local HS game a couple of years ago where the teams were closely matched, but one knew they couldn't stop the others offense.  They trieat d a variety of inside kicks every kickoff and they got 2 of them.  It was the difference in the game.

Apples and oranges I'm afraid.  I think giving Mount a short field all day could turn a 56-0 game into a 91-0 game. I'm not sure many coaches want to do that to their players or their program.

Mount would take the foot off the gas, it would just be a matter of how quickly it go to 56-0 IMO (not that I think the W&L game will be that lopsided,). This Mount Team has a lot to prove so I'm not even sure it'll be a blowout to be honest.

Regarding the punting thing... I  think we tend to undervalue how important having posession of the ball is versus field position. Below is my understanding  of the math based on some CFB probability of scoring data I found here: https://watchstadium.com/calculating-college-footballs-scoring-rate-by-yard-line-07-17-2019/ ( I can't figure out hyperlinks on the forum). Obviously it's a  huge generalization and doesn't take into account the individual teams or momentum, but hopefully you all can see my point.

I think the way to look at the punting thing (in this scenario against a better Mount Union team)  is what's the value of keeping your drive alive, vs the value of spotting Mount 35 yards (approx. D3 punter average)

Let's say Team X is playing Mount Union and is on their own 35 yard line. If they punt, they give Mount the Ball at Mount's 30 yard line (on average). From there Mount Union would have about a 40% chance of scoring on the drive. If however Team X went for it on 4th down and failed to convert, Mount would get the Ball at Team X's 35 yard line and would have about a 73% chance of scoring on the drive.

So punting instead of failing to convert in that scenario reduces Mount Union's chances of scoring by 33%. On the flipside, Before punting team X had about a 44% chance of scoring on the drive from their own 35... and by punting they've reduced their own scoring chances from 44% to 0%.

Obviously how far the 4th down conversion is plays a role too, but based on the scenario above I'm thinking 4th and short should a go for it for most teams from most field positions.

Anyway, the point I'm trying to make is that against an elite D3 offense, it's probably better to try and keep them off the field at all costs rather than worry about field position.

I think the argument is stronger if you put parameters on it. In other words, if the underdog chose to "go for it" on 4th or 3 or less every single time, then MAYBE I see some validity to the argument. But even then I am also on the fence.

But that is altogether different than not having a punter AT ALL, which I think was indicated at the beginning of this conversation. Not having a punter at all means going for it on 4th and 12 or 4th and 15. And lets face it, against Mount, many teams will face those situations.So, not having the option to punt in those situations don't feel like an advantage to me.

Very good points purple! My argument is far from perfect, but I guess my counter would be that hopefully the number of go for it on 4 down scenarios that made sense statistically would outweigh the ones that didn't.

[MUCRaker]

Boy do I feel bad for Carnegie-Melon!!  All dressed up and no where to go.

[WRMUalum13]

Even worse than nowhere to go go, CMU was on route to North Central when theh found out they had to cancel. Really tough break for the Tartans.

[Kira & Jaxon's Dad]

Coach Dartt is on the sidelines and Plunk just ran the ball. Hmmm

[jknezek]

Generals starting their third qb of the season. Poor young man makes the first start of his career in Alliance. If I wasn't so lazy Id go figure out how many opening day starters started today, but in addition to being lazy I don't want to be depressed.

[jknezek]

And with that second score I think I'll just wait until the Sweet Sixteen men's soccer game starts in an hour. I don't think our dbs can handle the speed. This could get very, very ugly.

[edward de vere]

Yeah, with those injuries W & L's situation is little different than Carnegie Mellon's.

[jknezek]

Yeah, with those injuries W & L's situation is little different than Carnegie Mellon's.

Nah. Every team deals with injuries. The Generals might not be equipped to deal with UMU on the first string  , but certainly not deep in the bench. What happened to CMU was just ill-timed bad luck, not a real football issue like injuries. Ah well, ODAC hardware is always nice considering how rare it was from the mid 80s to the mid 00s.

[jknezek]

Oh man. 1 yard per carry. Well done UMU. Good luck the rest of the way. Glad I switched what I was watching.