FB: Ohio Athletic Conference

[D3fanboy]

59-52 in '19.  Don't want the "NCAA just wants Mount in the Canton Stagg Bowl" crew to come after you

[Captainred81]

Here we are the last game before the big one!!!  Go Raiders!!!

Definitely Mount Union has a legitimate shot at winning this game and even winning by 2 scores or more...That's what makes them Mount Union. 

Defensively Mount Union needs to eliminate long running plays.  NCC will run and they will run a lot.  The have the O-Line to do it and the talent in the back field.  In 2019 Greenfield ran for 130 yards on 27 carries with a long of 31.  Rutter and Hill also had carries, but no real impact on the game.  If the Mount Union purple wall can do this again, we will win this game. 

Offensively, we have to score points.  The major difference between us and Wheaton or UWL is our Offense.  We will score points.  No question.  NCC has great athletes on defense, and they will have big plays, but expect Mount Union to move the ball.  This season NCC has played some extremely weak competition.  They run the ball at will and they only pass when they feel like it.  If they are forced to throw the ball to keep up with the score, I'm not sure they can do it.  UWL started off abysmally, and gave NCC the opportunity to stick with their game plan.  If Mount Union can come out fast and get up by 7-10 points, it may change the way that NCC plays. 

Other observations.  I have watched a handful of the NCC games, and they are suspect in the secondary.  I think the Mount Receivers as a group are maybe the best group that Mount has ever had.  I think that Plunk will be able to hit some deep balls, and score in a hurry putting some pressure on the NCC rushing attack. 

Mount Union needs to be able to count on the special teams.  All of them...kick off, punt and punt return.  Mistakes like the ones made against the Mules will turn into scores, and they will lose. 

Finally, great job to all these teams that are left.  I pray for an injury free game and good fun for all four squads.   

[D3fanboy]

Here we are the last game before the big one!!!  Go Raiders!!!

Definitely Mount Union has a legitimate shot at winning this game and even winning by 2 scores or more...That's what makes them Mount Union. 

Defensively Mount Union needs to eliminate long running plays.  NCC will run and they will run a lot.  The have the O-Line to do it and the talent in the back field.  In 2019 Greenfield ran for 130 yards on 27 carries with a long of 31.  Rutter and Hill also had carries, but no real impact on the game.  If the Mount Union purple wall can do this again, we will win this game. 

Offensively, we have to score points.  The major difference between us and Wheaton or UWL is our Offense.  We will score points.  No question.  NCC has great athletes on defense, and they will have big plays, but expect Mount Union to move the ball.  This season NCC has played some extremely weak competition.  They run the ball at will and they only pass when they feel like it.  If they are forced to throw the ball to keep up with the score, I'm not sure they can do it.  UWL started off abysmally, and gave NCC the opportunity to stick with their game plan.  If Mount Union can come out fast and get up by 7-10 points, it may change the way that NCC plays. 

Other observations.  I have watched a handful of the NCC games, and they are suspect in the secondary.  I think the Mount Receivers as a group are maybe the best group that Mount has ever had.  I think that Plunk will be able to hit some deep balls, and score in a hurry putting some pressure on the NCC rushing attack. 

Mount Union needs to be able to count on the special teams.  All of them...kick off, punt and punt return.  Mistakes like the ones made against the Mules will turn into scores, and they will lose. 

Finally, great job to all these teams that are left.  I pray for an injury free game and good fun for all four squads.

this is the scariest thing about Saturday.  Both teams have great RB's, WR's, talented young QB's with talented, big O-lines that will test top notch defenses that are loaded with size and speed.  But Mount cannot, cannot have sub 20 yard punts that lead to the opponent taking over at the Mount 35 (JHU game) and cannot muff punts and kneel down long snaps to provide short fields (Mules).  FG's arent going to beat either NCC or Mount, so I doubt that is much of a plan for either team.  With 15-20 mph wind and 35-40 mph gusts, I can't even imagine the adventure that Mount might have in special teams

[WRMUalum13]

Here we are the last game before the big one!!!  Go Raiders!!!

Definitely Mount Union has a legitimate shot at winning this game and even winning by 2 scores or more...That's what makes them Mount Union. 

Defensively Mount Union needs to eliminate long running plays.  NCC will run and they will run a lot.  The have the O-Line to do it and the talent in the back field.  In 2019 Greenfield ran for 130 yards on 27 carries with a long of 31. Rutter and Hill also had carries, but no real impact on the game. If the Mount Union purple wall can do this again, we will win this game. 

Offensively, we have to score points.  The major difference between us and Wheaton or UWL is our Offense.  We will score points.  No question.  NCC has great athletes on defense, and they will have big plays, but expect Mount Union to move the ball.  This season NCC has played some extremely weak competition.  They run the ball at will and they only pass when they feel like it.  If they are forced to throw the ball to keep up with the score, I'm not sure they can do it.  UWL started off abysmally, and gave NCC the opportunity to stick with their game plan.  If Mount Union can come out fast and get up by 7-10 points, it may change the way that NCC plays. 

Other observations.  I have watched a handful of the NCC games, and they are suspect in the secondary.  I think the Mount Receivers as a group are maybe the best group that Mount has ever had.  I think that Plunk will be able to hit some deep balls, and score in a hurry putting some pressure on the NCC rushing attack. 

Mount Union needs to be able to count on the special teams.  All of them...kick off, punt and punt return.  Mistakes like the ones made against the Mules will turn into scores, and they will lose. 

Finally, great job to all these teams that are left.  I pray for an injury free game and good fun for all four squads.

Great commentary, only issue is that in 2019 Rutter's running definitely had an impact on the game, I vividly remember him scoring a late game rushing touchdown in the South endzone... I remember because I distinctly felt a sinking feeling in my stomach at that point in the game lol

[Dr. Acula]

Mount Union Losses since 1999

By more than One Score:
2003 vs St. Johns 24-6
2007 vs UWW 31-21
2009 vs UWW 38-28
2010 vs UWW 31-21
2013 vs UWW 52-14
2014 vs UWW 43-34

The rest of their losses are:
1990 vs Rowan 24-17
2004 vs MHB 38-35
2005 vs UWW 35-28
2011 vs UWW 13-10
2016 vs JCU 31-28
2016 vs MHB 14-12
2018 vs MHB 24-16
2019 vs NCC 59-56

Only one IMO is truly a blowout (2013 vs UWW) but St. Johns handled the Raiders fairly well in 2003.

I don't know where I'm going with this, but I don't see NCC blowing MTU out this weekend.  But maybe I'm just wearing Purple Shaded Glasses.

SJU was better than that Mount team, but even then Mount had 1st and goal from the 1 down 17-6 with over 10 min left.  You punch that in and who knows?  Instead they get stuffed a couple times and throw a 100 yd pick 6 and it's lights out.

[D3fanboy]

Mount Union Losses since 1999

By more than One Score:
2003 vs St. Johns 24-6
2007 vs UWW 31-21
2009 vs UWW 38-28
2010 vs UWW 31-21
2013 vs UWW 52-14
2014 vs UWW 43-34

The rest of their losses are:
1990 vs Rowan 24-17
2004 vs MHB 38-35
2005 vs UWW 35-28
2011 vs UWW 13-10
2016 vs JCU 31-28
2016 vs MHB 14-12
2018 vs MHB 24-16
2019 vs NCC 59-56

Only one IMO is truly a blowout (2013 vs UWW) but St. Johns handled the Raiders fairly well in 2003.

I don't know where I'm going with this, but I don't see NCC blowing MTU out this weekend.  But maybe I'm just wearing Purple Shaded Glasses.

SJU was better than that Mount team, but even then Mount had 1st and goal from the 1 down 17-6 with over 10 min left.  You punch that in and who knows?  Instead they get stuffed a couple times and throw a 100 yd pick 6 and it's lights out.

Wasn't that '03 Mount team unbeatable?  They just killed everybody, had every single 1st place vote in the d3football.com poll, all year.  Offense full of stars and a huge, nasty O-line and a defense that barely gave up anything.  Won the semi 66-0.  Sounds kind of familiar

[USee]

Here we are the last game before the big one!!!  Go Raiders!!!

Definitely Mount Union has a legitimate shot at winning this game and even winning by 2 scores or more...That's what makes them Mount Union. 

Defensively Mount Union needs to eliminate long running plays.  NCC will run and they will run a lot.  The have the O-Line to do it and the talent in the back field.  In 2019 Greenfield ran for 130 yards on 27 carries with a long of 31.  Rutter and Hill also had carries, but no real impact on the game.  If the Mount Union purple wall can do this again, we will win this game. 

I agree with this. Nothing I have said about this years NCC team was different in 2019. They ran it 42x in Alliance 2 years ago and Rutter threw it 36. This year they are that looks more like 51 rush and 27 passes.  Their QB is very fast and will run, not just scrambles but designed QB runs.

Offensively, we have to score points.  The major difference between us and Wheaton or UWL is our Offense.  We will score points.  No question.  NCC has great athletes on defense, and they will have big plays, but expect Mount Union to move the ball.

I definitely agree with this. Mt Union is probably better on offense than either of those two. NCC is also a LOT better on defense than 2019. A lot!

This season NCC has played some extremely weak competition. 

So has Mt Union. What's the point? I don't think there is any illusion by either team about the relative strength of their opponent this week.

They run the ball at will and they only pass when they feel like it.  If they are forced to throw the ball to keep up with the score, I'm not sure they can do it.

Are you sure they can't? I'm not. The reality is they haven't had to. And Wheaton held them to 3.1 yards per rush and 126 total yards rushing. They still rushed it 41x and threw it 20. That's who they are. I would think if Mt Union could hold NCC to 14 pts through all but 1 minute of the game, they will be in a strong position to win, given their offense.

UWL started off abysmally, and gave NCC the opportunity to stick with their game plan.  If Mount Union can come out fast and get up by 7-10 points, it may change the way that NCC plays. 

Getting significantly ahead of NCC and trying to make them pass the ball only is a great game plan and would put the Cardinals in a position they have not been in since before 2019. But there is a reason they haven't been in that position.

Other observations.  I have watched a handful of the NCC games, and they are suspect in the secondary.  I think the Mount Receivers as a group are maybe the best group that Mount has ever had.  I think that Plunk will be able to hit some deep balls, and score in a hurry putting some pressure on the NCC rushing attack. 

I would strongly disagree with this assessment. Their secondary is the strength of their defense. That said, I think they were down one starter vs UWL and last week and if that's the case, there could be vulnerability there. But Jake Beesley, Dakota Cremeens and Braden Lindmark are all AA type DB's. They are the reason their D is top 10 in my opinion.

Mount Union needs to be able to count on the special teams.  All of them...kick off, punt and punt return.  Mistakes like the ones made against the Mules will turn into scores, and they will lose. 

Finally, great job to all these teams that are left.  I pray for an injury free game and good fun for all four squads.

Special teams is an area Mt Union has always excelled. That will be a big factor this weekend as well.

[D3fanboy]

Here we are the last game before the big one!!!  Go Raiders!!!

Definitely Mount Union has a legitimate shot at winning this game and even winning by 2 scores or more...That's what makes them Mount Union. 

Defensively Mount Union needs to eliminate long running plays.  NCC will run and they will run a lot.  The have the O-Line to do it and the talent in the back field.  In 2019 Greenfield ran for 130 yards on 27 carries with a long of 31.  Rutter and Hill also had carries, but no real impact on the game.  If the Mount Union purple wall can do this again, we will win this game. 

I agree with this. Nothing I have said about this years NCC team was different in 2019. They ran it 42x in Alliance 2 years ago and Rutter threw it 36. This year they are that looks more like 51 rush and 27 passes.  Their QB is very fast and will run, not just scrambles but designed QB runs.

Offensively, we have to score points.  The major difference between us and Wheaton or UWL is our Offense.  We will score points.  No question.  NCC has great athletes on defense, and they will have big plays, but expect Mount Union to move the ball.

I definitely agree with this. Mt Union is probably better on offense than either of those two. NCC is also a LOT better on defense than 2019. A lot!

This season NCC has played some extremely weak competition. 

So has Mt Union. What's the point? I don't think there is any illusion by either team about the relative strength of their opponent this week.

They run the ball at will and they only pass when they feel like it.  If they are forced to throw the ball to keep up with the score, I'm not sure they can do it.

Are you sure they can't? I'm not. The reality is they haven't had to. And Wheaton held them to 3.1 yards per rush and 126 total yards rushing. They still rushed it 41x and threw it 20. That's who they are. I would think if Mt Union could hold NCC to 14 pts through all but 1 minute of the game, they will be in a strong position to win, given their offense.

UWL started off abysmally, and gave NCC the opportunity to stick with their game plan.  If Mount Union can come out fast and get up by 7-10 points, it may change the way that NCC plays. 

Getting significantly ahead of NCC and trying to make them pass the ball only is a great game plan and would put the Cardinals in a position they have not been in since before 2019. But there is a reason they haven't been in that position.

Other observations.  I have watched a handful of the NCC games, and they are suspect in the secondary.  I think the Mount Receivers as a group are maybe the best group that Mount has ever had.  I think that Plunk will be able to hit some deep balls, and score in a hurry putting some pressure on the NCC rushing attack. 

I would strongly disagree with this assessment. Their secondary is the strength of their defense. That said, I think they were down one starter vs UWL and last week and if that's the case, there could be vulnerability there. But Jake Beesley, Dakota Cremeens and Braden Lindmark are all AA type DB's. They are the reason their D is top 10 in my opinion.

Mount Union needs to be able to count on the special teams.  All of them...kick off, punt and punt return.  Mistakes like the ones made against the Mules will turn into scores, and they will lose. 

Finally, great job to all these teams that are left.  I pray for an injury free game and good fun for all four squads.

Special teams is an area Mt Union has always excelled. That will be a big factor this weekend as well.

Three all american DB's??  yikes!!!  When do we start up the calls for NCC to move up to D2?

[CardsFan1988]

Having seen my fair share of North Central games and knowing them as well as anyone,  here is what I can tell you they are gonna do Saturday:

They are gonna run the ball right at you. Doesn't matter who you are, doesn't matter what you do, they are gonna try to bully you on the LOS and run it relentlessly. Even if you stop them, they won't stop running it. They run the ball 66% of their plays. This year they never had less than 36 rush attempts and only passed the ball more than 25 times once through 12 games. They ran it more than 40 times 9 games, more than 50 times in 5 games. They rushed for over 300 yards in 7 games. Only once did they rush for under 200 yards, against Wheaton, the #2 rush defense in the country 41 attempts for 126 yds; 13-20 passing). They averaged over 6 yds a carry against all but 2 teams including UWLacrosse (291 yds rushing, 6.2 ypc; UWW ran for 191 vs UWL).

They haven't asked their QB to win a game on his own, yet. He came close against Wheaton (Kamienski helped a lot). When they pass, they are gonna throw it down the field. They average 17.6 yds per completion (#8 in the country). Mt Union averages 8.8 yds per attempt. If you are going to compete with NCC you have to neutralize or win the LOS. They aim to dominate on the offensive line. Wheaton held them to 126 yds rushing (the QB ran for 66 of those) and 3.1 ypc. Mt Unions #4 ranked rush defense only gave up 100 yds rushing 2x. 160 yds vs Ohio Northern and 130 yds vs Baldwin Wallace.

So NCC is going to make you stop the run. They ran it against wheaton unsuccessfully and still won. They ran it agains UWL and won, they ran it against everybody.  If you can stop the run and keep 2 safeties back, you can beat them. If you commit an extra DB or 2 to the run by playing cover 3 or man to man, they will RPO you down the field with their WR's. When they pass they go big game hunting. Against Wheaton the kid complete 13 passes. 6 of them went for 30+ yds and were the primary reason they won in what was a 14-7 game until a minute left.

Mt Union runs the ball so they can throw it. NCC runs it so they can run it some more. The QB completes 66% of his passes with 30 TDs and 6 INT. He runs for about 40-50 yds a game. And he really isn't a freshman. He has been at NCC for 2 years and is now in his 13th game so I wouldn't count on him playing like a freshman. 

The only team I think with the right matchups and personnel to beat NCC is UWW (maybe MHB but I haven't really seen or studied them yet). They are strong in the places where NCC can be hurt. I don't see the Purple Raiders winning Saturday, despite Bleed's guess. If they do, it's because they are better up front than NCC and fast enough on the perimeter to beat their skill guys.

One note I will add to USee's excellent analysis - part of the reason NCC's running % is so high in 2021 has been the margin of victory. Looking only at attempts per game for Hill, Greenfield and Lehnen/Rutter:

2019 - 31 run vs 29 pass (52% run)
2021 - 33 run vs 22 pass (60% run)

Still more run heavy in 2021 than 2019, but given the starters will be on the field the whole game against mount, I'd expect something closer to a 60/40 split assuming NCC doesn't fall down big early (which is right in line with where NCC has traditionally been in the Thorne era). Also, interesting to note that while people remember Rutter's unbelievable performance in 2019, NCC ran the ball 62% of the time in that game.

[USee]

I don't foresee a blowout either way. HansenRatings has NCC -6, which seems about right. I'd be surprised if this is more than a 10 pt game either way Saturday.

[theaprof]

Anybody interested in getting together at Rey's 62 in Alliance for some wings/beverages on Friday evening before the game?  Mount fans and NCC fans?  We have done this before the semis for years and it has always been friendly.

Let me know if you are interested--

Theaprof!

[Pat Coleman]

OK, THIS drives me crazy!  The NCAA are the people who ASSIGNED the playoff opponents.  And then they turn around and use those teams' credentials in seeding teams later in the bracket?  No. That doesn't work. And then when something weird happens like a game getting cancelled, it's just, "Too bad NCC".

Yeah. This is the gear-grinder for me as well.

[skunks_sidekick]

I find it hilarious that there is an underlying buzz that the Stagg committee from Canton has the "fix" in with the NCAA and that is why Mount is at home against NCC.  What a crock of ****!  The NCAA does what it does (idiotically at times) and the HOF and venue for the Stagg has NO sway with that group.

We all know NCC as the undefeated defending national champion should be hosting this game...PERIOD.

As for the game itself, Mount's defense has actually played better than what I watched earlier in the year.  The offense...ummmm.

Plunk needs to step up and be the QB that he has flashed at times.  Get the ball to Ruby any & every time he is single covered because you cannot cover him with whatever AA DB's you think you have.  And, if you roll the safety over to his side (which you should definitely do) Mount's other receivers are very good and will make plays.

Petro has worked himself out of the year long doghouse (don't believe you own hype young man), and he can carry this team on the ground to win this game.  Parker can give that shake to the bake so I think the offense is in good hands IF Plunk plays at least a B+ game.

The defense needs to make timely big plays as they will not stop NCC on a regular basis.  I think this has the makings of a great game and unless there is a huge glitch in the matrix, I see this as a 7 point/who has the ball last type of game.

Wife & I are hosting family for a holiday party where we have finally taken the reins from her 87 year old mother for the feast of the 7 fishes.  The party starts at 3 so the game should be over by then.  Here's hoping I am celebrating!

[Kira & Jaxon's Dad]

Jesse Vail is listed as the Starter at Weak Safety this week. Hopefully he's healed.

[pradierguy]

I appreciate all the insights to this game Saturday, well done all.

Only commentary I'd like to add is the HOF involvement on Mount's behalf is laughable. That group is so inept, it's sad. Even if the NCAA would entertain the thought, the HOF would find some hilarious way to mess it up and Rocky Pentello would lead the Wilmington Quakers into the game, coached by Dean Paul.