FB: Ohio Athletic Conference

[purple]

  "Not so Fast", D3Fanboy.
I went to the NCC-MHB game last year in Canton and it was a mismatch from start to finish. MHB was much heavier across both the OL and DL. NCC couldn't run the ball and couldn't stop MHB. NCC was not able to run their QB and set up the passing game. NCC got manhandled.
NCC made Mount Union look small. MHB made NCC look small. The size difference was the telling factor, especially in the second half.

[gordonmann]

Does anybody know who the cameraman was today?

Ha! I felt like a total doofus. I'm petrified of getting the students names wrong so I just looked down and read the name plate by the camera. It was the name plate from last week.

Jake was extremely gracious about it. He has wrestled at Del Val and could've made the experience a lot more humbling for me.

[WRMUalum13]

  "Not so Fast", D3Fanboy.
I went to the NCC-MHB game last year in Canton and it was a mismatch from start to finish. MHB was much heavier across both the OL and DL. NCC couldn't run the ball and couldn't stop MHB. NCC was not able to run their QB and set up the passing game. NCC got manhandled.
NCC made Mount Union look small. MHB made NCC look small. The size difference was the telling factor, especially in the second half.

Both NCC and UMHB are different teams than last year. UMHB's size and speed advantages haven't been nearly as apparent as they were last year. Their d-line doesn't look nearly as elite as it has in the past. On NCC's side they lost at least one starter on the o-line who happened to be an all-American. I think UMHB has shown flashes of being a national championship team but they'll need to put together a full game against NCC.

[WRMUalum13]

If I were a NCC fan my only concern would be how unbalanced the offense is, the last two playoff games were 58 rushes to 25 passing attempts and 43 and 17. If a team can shut down the run I'm not sure the passing attack is good enough to keep them honest. That's pretty much what happened in last year's Stagg Bowl.

[Cru Mike]

Both NCC and UMHB are different teams than last year. UMHB's size and speed advantages haven't been nearly as apparent as they were last year. Their d-line doesn't look nearly as elite as it has in the past. On NCC's side they lost at least one starter on the o-line who happened to be an all-American. I think UMHB has shown flashes of being a national championship team but they'll need to put together a full game against NCC.
[/quote]

In my opinion, having watched UMHB from the beginning, UMHB size and speed advantage doesn't show as much when the play HSU, HPU or Trinity is because they are very close in size and speed to UMHB and often play close games. UMHB D had a pretty good half at Trinity and shut down the run game for the most part. The D had another good half against Bethel and will have to play NCC better. However, NCC still has the challenge of shutting down UMHB offense. UMHB still has 9 of 11 returning starters on offense and match up well with NCC. Can NCC stop the passing game or the run game?  If the Cru can slow down Greenfield they have a real shot to win this game.

[USee]

What's the early projection for spread for each of the Semis games?

Mount will get up 20-0, start running the ball up the middle over and over, maybe mixing in some RB swing passes. Wartburg storms back to take a 21-20 lead in the 4th qtr and then Mount gets a late Ruby TD to go up 27-21.  Mount's gassed defense steps up to get one crucial stop and Mount kneels it out.  so Mount -6.5, NCC is easily -13.5

Easily 13.5? Curious about your thoughts on this, I thought UMHB looked pretty scary yesterday once they broke the game open in the 4th

NCC is heads and shoulders above everyone else.  I can't wait for their super seniors to finally graduate.  They will smack UMHB in the mouth early, just like UWW and Bethel, but not let them back into the game.  NCC is like UWW on steroids.

Sorry to correct you but NCC has exactly 1 senior on offense, Ethan Greenfield. And he is playing his 4th year of eligibility after sitting out 2020 during Covid. On their #1 ranked defense, they have 4 players playing their 4th year of eligibility after sitting out 2020 during Covid (3 DL and one LB). So NCC has 18 starters back next year regardless what happens this year.

[USee]

The biggest difference between this year's NCC and the one who played UMHB in the Stagg last year is on defense. Going into the playoffs last year they were #20 in the nation on defense and this year they are #1. Key newcomers are CCIW DPOY Dan Lester at DT. He has changed their run defense dramatically. The 2 other new comers on defense are safety Julian Bell, who started on the 2019 team and then left and is now back and D1 CB transfer Antwain Walker, who is a more athletic version of last year's Jake Beasley. There is a reason this team is #1 on defense. Much different than last year.

[emma17]

^
I tend to think the same about NCC, but I felt that way last year too. I never expected them to get trounced by UMHB.

[WRMUalum13]

^
I tend to think the same about NCC, but I felt that way last year too. I never expected them to get trounced by UMHB.

I didn't think anybody in d3 could shut down their running game last year but UMHB held them to only 83 yards, I'm really interested to see how that matchup pans out again.

[CruFrenzy]

Thoughts on the final 4 teams remaining

Wartburg College

After watching closely it's obvious to me this team is not just statistically good defensively, but they're clearly elite. I know that's not such a hot take, they've been great all year but in D3 we are really only used to seeing incredible championship caliber units come out of a handful of programs. But they have my stamp of approval! Defensive line is long and fast off the edges, linebackers and secondary pursue the ball very well and most importantly they play as a unit. The defense reminds me of Trinity quite a bit actually when I watch the front 7 but their defensive backs are a little longer.

Offensively the run game is also the real deal. The Clasen kid reminds me of a lot of Justin Beaver the UWW running back from a while back. All in all this is a really good team, looking forward to seeing them play vs a traditional power in a huge semi final game.

Mount Union

I believe from what I've seen this UMU team has taken a step forward on both sides of the ball from a year ago. But if I had to pick a side of the ball that has been more impressive I might have to go with the defense.. watching the game last year between Mount & NCC I couldn't help but feel like "this isn't the same Mount Union defense that we're used to". After watching the game vs Del Valley I think Mount is very close if not all the way back to being at that level again defensively. Gonna look into this one a little more before I decide on where to set the odds but right now it's gonna be close to a pick 'em in Alliance for me.

UMHB

Last year our team's performance vs Linfield was the turning point in our season and the 4th quarter comeback this last week vs Bethel where the Cru offense scored 24 unanswered had a very similar feel. I believe this offense is now where it was a year ago on our championship run.. our defense has gotten better and better all season & came up with some MASSIVE plays to stop Bethel. The turnovers were fantastic and something we've been lacking in big spots this season so that was good to see. I still wouldn't put this unit on the same level as our championship defense a year ago but given the youth and turnover I think it's about as much as I could've hoped for this season as a fan. They're good enough to give us a chance and that's all we can ask for.

NCC

I'm having a hard time getting a great feel for where this team is exactly because I've really only had the game vs Wheaton to examine and the other games haven't meant a whole lot. The game against Carnegie Melon was interesting as well.

My assessment of the offense is that they will once again have an elite run game and maybe the most athletic offensive line in D3 which is on par with the teams they've had the last few years. Luke Lehnen (QB) seems to be more involved in the run game this season & I would only expect him to take a step forward this season as a passer. Also I have not said this about many if any D3 players this year but I do believe Deangelo Hardy will have an NFL career.. so that never hurts to have on your team.

Defense, this is where I think NCC seems to have shored some things up. Particularly up front where they're elite against the run and rushing the passer.. I also wouldn't be surprised if they approach the UMHB offense with a little different game plan (maybe an umbrella coverage similar to Bethels) this go around. All in all NCC deserves to be the #1 team and as of now I'd probably have them listed as a field goal favorite or a little less.

Gonna be a fun weekend!

[Next Man Up]

What's the early projection for spread for each of the Semis games?

Mount will get up 20-0, start running the ball up the middle over and over, maybe mixing in some RB swing passes. Wartburg storms back to take a 21-20 lead in the 4th qtr and then Mount gets a late Ruby TD to go up 27-21.  Mount's gassed defense steps up to get one crucial stop and Mount kneels it out.  so Mount -6.5, NCC is easily -13.5

Easily 13.5? Curious about your thoughts on this, I thought UMHB looked pretty scary yesterday once they broke the game open in the 4th

NCC is heads and shoulders above everyone else.  I can't wait for their super seniors to finally graduate.  They will smack UMHB in the mouth early, just like UWW and Bethel, but not let them back into the game.  NCC is like UWW on steroids.

Sorry to correct you but NCC has exactly 1 senior on offense, Ethan Greenfield. And he is playing his 4th year of eligibility after sitting out 2020 during Covid. On their #1 ranked defense, they have 4 players playing their 4th year of eligibility after sitting out 2020 during Covid (3 DL and one LB). So NCC has 18 starters back next year regardless what happens this year.

Actually, the Cardinals have 2 senior offensive starters. The second is RT, #72, Will Ebert who some Ithaca posters said played like an All-American Saturday.

[Next Man Up]

Both NCC and UMHB are different teams than last year. UMHB's size and speed advantages haven't been nearly as apparent as they were last year. Their d-line doesn't look nearly as elite as it has in the past. On NCC's side they lost at least one starter on the o-line who happened to be an all-American. I think UMHB has shown flashes of being a national championship team but they'll need to put together a full game against NCC.

In my opinion, having watched UMHB from the beginning, UMHB size and speed advantage doesn't show as much when the play HSU, HPU or Trinity is because they are very close in size and speed to UMHB and often play close games. UMHB D had a pretty good half at Trinity and shut down the run game for the most part. The D had another good half against Bethel and will have to play NCC better. However, NCC still has the challenge of shutting down UMHB offense. UMHB still has 9 of 11 returning starters on offense and match up well with NCC. Can NCC stop the passing game or the run game? If the Cru can slow down Greenfield they have a real shot to win this game.
[/quote]


If the Texans can slow down Greenfield, that will certainly increase their odds. Be aware however of the fact that Greenfield is often stronger in the second half than the first. Additionally, NCC's running game is actually a three, rather than a one, headed monster. #2 RB Terrence Hill has 13 touchdowns and would be starting on 95% of D3 teams. He actually has a higher yards per rush average than Greenfield. And you're not going to find a more mobile and quicker QB than Luke Lehnen. In the last 2 weeks he has TD runs of 12, 45, and 72 yards against very good defensive teams. He's also the fastest guy on the team.

That said, I'll add that since the beginning of the season I considered the two biggest impediments to a NCC National Championship to be UMHB, and our fellow CCIW member Wheaton. We beat Wheaton by 13 points—the slimmest margin of victory all year. I think we'll have to play better to win Saturday.

** The NCC Athletic Administration and FB Coaching Staff have heard how fond of cold weather and snow people from Texas are. Accordingly, in an attempt to be as hospitable as possible, they've apparently arranged for series of snow making machines to be set up along the sidelines this week, so they can be in operation overnight Friday to provide a favorable environment Saturday.    

[Kira & Jaxon's Dad]

I thought this was the OAC board, not the CCIW or ASC.

[raiderpa]

Am I wrong in assuming that Wartburg will fly to Ohio, as they are over 600 miles away?

[D3fanboy]

Am I wrong in assuming that Wartburg will fly to Ohio, as they are over 600 miles away?

that's going to be a lot of crop dusters flying into CAK