FB: Ohio Athletic Conference

OU#25 · December 01, 2008, 07:41:15 PM

Quote from: skunks_sidekick on December 01, 2008, 05:16:01 PM
Simple.....more faith in the defensive unit so hoping they could get a stop and get the offense fired up. Of course..the kick out of bounds to start the game didn't help any.

I enjoy stats so I thought I would do a little research into the meaning of the opening coin flip and the decision to defer the choice until the 2nd half as it pertains to Mount Union Football. To date...covering 12 MUC games...Mount has been very unlucky only winning the opening coin toss 16% of the time. When they have won the toss they have deferred and never accepted an opening game kickoff all season.

Specifically, during the first 7 games Mount Union lost every opening toss and every opponent decided to accept the opening kickoff. During those contests no team scored on Mount Union and following Mount's opening posession...teams trailed by a cumulative score of 38-0.

The last 5 contests have been a much different strategy as the team winning the coin flip has decided to defer the choice on all 5 occasions. Mount won two of those and held their opponents scoreless while scoring touchdowns on both of their opening drives. For Mount opponents...the 3x times they deferred only Marietta held Mount out of the end zone on an opening drive.

So did deferring help MUC opponents? The three teams that deferred the opening toss came out of the locker room at half trailing by a cumulative score of 77-0...and were unsuccessful scoring on any opening 3rd quarter posessions versus Mount this season.

Mount deferred twice and came out starting the 3rd quarter with a touchdown drive 50% of the time (1 for 2).

My point was that Mount has never trailed all season. You have the Hobart Coach stating prior to the game that his team is not built to comeback from defecits. Mount Union scores on 83% of opening drives on the season...and gives up 0% scores to start the 3rd quarter. If you win the toss Coach________...you should STRONGLY think about accepting the ball because you have little statistical proof backing up your theory that:

A. You can stop Mount Union on an opening game drive.

B. That you can score on Mount Union coming out of the locker room at half.

I understand that opposing teams want their defense to "set the tone" for the game but what they don't realize is that Mount Union's offense is more physical and has more ability to "set the tone" then the opposing defenses.

Just my theory..but if I was coaching I would like the opportunity to score first on Mount Union and not be playing from a defecit and already moving away from my gameplan...as Mount begins to fast-break you down the field on offense.

raiderpa · December 01, 2008, 08:54:44 PM

The picture in front of the scoreboard line was also used by Glen Mason at Kansas when he scored first against
a vastly superior Oklahoma squad. A reporter in the postgame interviews asked him what he thought when they scored first and led the Sooners. Mason replied something like, " I wanted to call a time out, get my team in front of the scoreboard and take a picture. " a great line.....

another one that I liked, when a running back was asked what it felt like to come around the end and see about six huge tacklers, he said something to the effect that he "thought he was looking at the team picture".....

raiderpa · December 01, 2008, 08:57:10 PM

another great quote on the CCIW board..

"statistics are like bikinis....what they reveal is interesting, what they hide is vital..." haha

GRIZ_BACKER · December 01, 2008, 09:07:59 PM

Quote from: raiderpa on December 01, 2008, 08:57:10 PM
another great quote on the CCIW board..

"statistics are like bikinis....what they reveal is interesting, what they hide is vital..." haha

I posted that line (I shamelessly stole it from a guy i worked with out in CA). It is good for a laugh particularly in business presentations where a lot of numbers are being thrown about.

Small but Slow · December 02, 2008, 10:05:13 AM

My high school coach always deferred to the second half if we won the toss, with one exception: Against the defending state champ we received the opening kickoff. The gimmick kick return brought the ball to midfield where we drove the remainder of the field methodically and scored first. The RB that scored was so excited he spiked the ball earning a 15 yard penalty on the PAT, which we didn't get, but still were up 6-0. They scored the next 50 points and gave us the most physical beating I have ever been a part of, but we drew first blood!

runyr · December 02, 2008, 10:18:12 AM

Quote from: raiderpa on December 01, 2008, 08:54:44 PM
The picture in front of the scoreboard line was also used by Glen Mason at Kansas when he scored first against
a vastly superior Oklahoma squad. A reporter in the postgame interviews asked him what he thought when they scored first and led the Sooners. Mason replied something like, " I wanted to call a time out, get my team in front of the scoreboard and take a picture. " a great line.....

another one that I liked, when a running back was asked what it felt like to come around the end and see about six huge tacklers, he said something to the effect that he "thought he was looking at the team picture".....

Very good.

OU#25 · December 02, 2008, 10:23:42 AM

Maybe another reason Mount Union does not want to accept the opening kick is that in Mount's 2 most recent losses (ONU & WWW) they received the opening kick to start the game.

Small but Slow · December 02, 2008, 10:23:51 AM

Hobart has the peace of mind knowing they emptied the trick play book, took some big chances, made a few pay off for them and gave Mount their best shot. A lot of teams become too afraid of making mistakes and play conservatively or out of character in other ways, creating turnovers and other mistakes Mount can take advantage of and turn an otherwise respectable game ugly quickly. MUC has crushed some teams that should have matched up better because the opponent tried to win the game in the first quarter.

raidertown · December 02, 2008, 03:20:19 PM

First time poster here. I just moved into the Alliance area this past year so this was my first season that I really got to see the purple raiders and all I can say is WOW! I now know why Mt. Union has the two longest winning streaks in college football history it's because they don't make many mistakes and they run a very crisp offense that every defense would hate to go against. If there is one thing that the raiders have done this season that I would like them to cut down on are the unsportsmanlike conduct penalties it seems like they commit about one or two a game but other then that I hope to go down to Salem for the first time and watch the Purple Raiders win there 10th stagg bowl!

I don't know if any of you have ever been to this place but I just discovered it this past week it's called Mt. Union Diner it's on S. Union it's a small place but the food is amazing. If you decide to go there, go up to the counter and ask for Chef Jim he's a pretty big man but tell him that Raidertown told you about this place and also make sure you tell him the food was good.

rocketraider · December 02, 2008, 03:37:38 PM

Welcome aboard Raidertown! The Mount Union experience is an interesting one to be sure. Great football, great players and coaches. But I digress. I had a chance to watch the Mount Hobart game on TV and was struck with how scrappy the Mount o-line was. Those boys get after people and make up for maybe a lack of size with hustle and nastiness. They were fun to watch. However, the penalties could be a problem if they don't get them under control. Certain penalties will happen by playing hard and aggressive but some can be controlled with a little discipline. I know LK and the coaches don't want to stifle aggressiveness but you really shouldn't get unsportmanlike conduct penalties at all, so if they can tone it down just a touch, all the better. Whatever, the Mount boys look very good, very hungry and capable of winning it all.

raidertown · December 02, 2008, 03:48:18 PM

I agree rocketraider some penalties Mount makes aren't that bad because it shows how aggressive they really are, but there is no reason to commit unsportmanlike penalties.

MUCRaker · December 02, 2008, 04:07:23 PM

I have a question for those of you in the know. At the end of the first half Hobart had the ball somewhere around their 15 yard line with a minute and a half to go. They just fiddled around and finally let the clock run out. My son (a former player) was freaking!! He said "This is the playoffs, you don't just blow away time and give up! Try something!" Knowing that this is it for the season, Why would they do that? I have to say, I was proud of them, until that happened. In any event Hobart played a better game than the final score indicates. Job well done Bart!
Go Raiders!!!

OU#25 · December 02, 2008, 04:26:10 PM

Quote from: MUCRaker on December 02, 2008, 04:07:23 PM
I have a question for those of you in the know. At the end of the first half Hobart had the ball somewhere around their 15 yard line with a minute and a half to go. They just fiddled around and finally let the clock run out. My son (a former player) was freaking!! He said "This is the playoffs, you don't just blow away time and give up! Try something!" Knowing that this is it for the season, Why would they do that? I have to say, I was proud of them, until that happened. In any event Hobart played a better game than the final score indicates. Job well done Bart!
Go Raiders!!!

I don't know but I would guess one or more of the following...

A. Being down 14-0 at half was acceptable going into the halftime locker room.

B. They would get the ball 1st to start the 3rd quarter with presumably better field position than their own 15.

C. Their FG Kicker had already missed earlier in the day.

D. There were better odds that Mount was going to:
1. Keep Hobart from going 85 yards in 1:30 for a score.
2. Possibly get a turnover as they did during Hobart's previous drive.
3. Block a punt attempt...
4. Score themselves.
5. Change momentum.

OU#25 · December 02, 2008, 04:29:00 PM

In conclusion...I think Hobart did the right thing by sitting on the ball. They had not been very successful through the air at that point and there was more risk than reward. With the score being 14-0 at half they still had momentum and a chance to be in the game.

HScoach · December 02, 2008, 05:56:54 PM

With a team built on defense and struggling to move the ball, I would have been THRILLED to be down only 14-0 and wouldn't have tried anything fancy. The last thing they needed was a sloppy turnover deep in their end and watch their great played half turn into a 21-0 hole and game over.

Now if it was a 14 point game when both teams had lit it up all half and the score was something like 35-21, then I'm trying to take advantage of the back-to-back possessions to bet back in it.