Future of Division III

[Caz Bombers]

JWU-Denver is closing next summer, bummer for the SCAC.

www.providencejournal.com/news/20200625/johnson--wales-to-close-campuses-in-florida-colorado

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

JWU-Denver is closing next summer, bummer for the SCAC.

www.providencejournal.com/news/20200625/johnson--wales-to-close-campuses-in-florida-colorado

That does suck.

[Gray Fox]

They're in final stage 3 human trials of a vaccine, that's promising enough the CDC has already begun to cultivate doses, with 100m to be ready by Jan 1st.  Pretty much as soon as the trials prove themselves, they'll be able to starting vaccinating people.  We just have to make it until then with no major hiccups.

And you heard that where?  Who is "They"?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

They're in final stage 3 human trials of a vaccine, that's promising enough the CDC has already begun to cultivate doses, with 100m to be ready by Jan 1st.  Pretty much as soon as the trials prove themselves, they'll be able to starting vaccinating people.  We just have to make it until then with no major hiccups.

And you heard that where?  Who is "They"?

That was a Fauci presser, about ten days ago, or so?  I'd have to go check the specifics.  Obviously a guy like that isn't going to promise anything, but if they're willing to put the resources towards a vaccine before trials are done, they're pretty confident it'll come out ok.

[Ron Boerger]

[...]  In the northern hemisphere it becomes pretty clear as well - urbanised areas with high density housing and lots of public transport fare far worse that suburban drivers.

By the time this year is out, COVID-19 will prove about twice as deadly as the 2018 flu season.  Contrary to that year it will be overwhelming concentrated in the 65+ and even moreso in the 75+.  And by next flu season, despite efforts to gin up anxiety, it will be virtually undetectable.  Just one more bug on the list of things that hit each year.  I'm surer of that than I am of a Johnnie victory this year and I'm pretty up on that already.

EDIT: Also happening here, easier because only 102 people have died of the bug, is that the number of deaths is actually going down.  They are being reclassified as dying from COVID as opposed to dying with or just presumed to have died because symptoms.  After that panic passed the media and gov't have turned to tracking infections, a decreasingly distressing measure of course.  We have 148 infected people and only two in the hospital in Victoria, the state I live in.  That's not due to magic sauce but summer.

Well, in Texas, where public transit is non-existent, people primarily live in single family housing, and oh, it's summer with temperatures already having reached into the 100s, over 6,000 new cases were reported just today, so you might want to be careful about stating your single-country observations as fact where the whole world is concerned.   

[OzJohnnie]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

For 7% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.5 additional conditions or causes per death.

Or, in other words, only 1 out of 14 CV deaths were clearly covid cause.  This is good news, people.  There is an extremely handy interactive chart on the CDC site which I encourage you to look at.  The risks are clear.

And another very informative chart here.  I encourage you to have a look at your favourite states and see which ones have been managing the challenge well and which haven't.  Fingers cross you're in a well managed location.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

[OzJohnnie]

The good news keeps rolling in.  Today's announcement from the CDC.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-says-covid-19-cases-u-s-may-be-10-n1232134

"Our best estimate right now is that for every case that's reported, there actually are 10 other infections," CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield said on a call with reporters Thursday.

The assessment comes from looking at blood samples across the country for the presence of antibodies to the virus. For every confirmed case of COVID-19, 10 more people had antibodies, Redfield said, referring to proteins in the blood that indicate whether a person's immune system has previously fought off the coronavirus.

This is particularly good news because it means the virus is at least ten times less deadly than previously thought.  This is headed in the best direction.

[OzJohnnie]

And the good hits keep rolling with this research.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.21.20132449v1

Results. All index patients recovered from a mild COVID-19. They all developed anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and a significant T cell response detectable up to 69 days after symptom onset. Six of the eight contacts reported COVID-19 symptoms within 1 to 7 days after the index patients but all were SARS-CoV-2 seronegative. Six out of eight contacts developed a SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell response against structural and/or accessory proteins that lasts up to 80 days post symptom onset suggesting a past SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Conclusion. Exposure to SARS-CoV-2 can induce virus-specific T cell responses without seroconversion. T cell responses may be more sensitive indicators of SARS-Co-V-2 exposure than antibodies. Our results indicate that epidemiological data relying only on the detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies may lead to a substantial underestimation of prior exposure to the virus.

In other words, our immune system's first line of defense, t-cells, seem able to fight off infection without the need for antibody development.  This initial study found that 6 of 8 family members of an infected person reported symptoms but developed no antibodies while having elevated t-cell counts.  If additional studies confirm these results then we may find the CDC increasing the multiple of undetected exposures by 3x.  More good news on the direction this pandemic is heading.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Yes all good news ... now if we can see the death rate start dropping below 5% that would be ideal. Yes, not everyone has been tested, but it has been holding pretty firm above 5% for most of this pandemic. We need more testing and even a solid anti-body test to make things look better.

BTW to those who don't understand why some deaths are still marked as C19, that is standard operating procedure. If someone dies from a disease or infection they normally would have beaten off, but because they have HIV/AIDS their system was compromised ... they died of HIV/AIDS (you don't technically die of HIV/AIDS). If someone ides of a virus or something, but has an auto immune disorder, the auto immune disorder is the cause because it kept them from being able to fight whatever it was off. If someone is in an auto accident and it causes a heart attack, the auto accident is the cause of the death.

With C19 it does a wonder on the lungs and other internal organs and thus affects the immune system. If someone dies of pneumonia they likely wouldn't have been afflicted with or couldn't fight off because of C19 ... they died of C19.

That is how it works for everything.

[OzJohnnie]

Yes all good news ... now if we can see the death rate start dropping below 5% that would be ideal. Yes, not everyone has been tested, but it has been holding pretty firm above 5% for most of this pandemic. We need more testing and even a solid anti-body test to make things look better.

BTW to those who don't understand why some deaths are still marked as C19, that is standard operating procedure. If someone dies from a disease or infection they normally would have beaten off, but because they have HIV/AIDS their system was compromised ... they died of HIV/AIDS (you don't technically die of HIV/AIDS). If someone ides of a virus or something, but has an auto immune disorder, the auto immune disorder is the cause because it kept them from being able to fight whatever it was off. If someone is in an auto accident and it causes a heart attack, the auto accident is the cause of the death.

With C19 it does a wonder on the lungs and other internal organs and thus affects the immune system. If someone dies of pneumonia they likely wouldn't have been afflicted with or couldn't fight off because of C19 ... they died of C19.

That is how it works for everything.

Nice spin.  Also wrong.

Apparently you feel that mere assertion is the only thing required to support a claim.  Makes for easy discussions, I guess.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I'm going to assume you didn't like the comment about how C19 is labeled on deaths...

As one with family and friends in the medical field especially a father who besides being a general surgeon and a family practitioner is also a medical examiner. I ain't spinning anything. Simply telling you what people with ten-times more experience and knowledge than I explain it.

I am sorry you don't like it. But this is how it works. One doesn't die of C19 as much as you die from what it does to other parts of the body and how that then allows things like pneumonia to invade and kill a person. It sucks.

[Ralph Turner]

I'm going to assume you didn't like the comment about how C19 is labeled on deaths...

As one with family and friends in the medical field especially a father who besides being a general surgeon and a family practitioner is also a medical examiner. I ain't spinning anything. Simply telling you what people with ten-times more experience and knowledge than I explain it.

I am sorry you don't like it. But this is how it works. One doesn't die of C19 as much as you die from what it does to other parts of the body and how that then allows things like pneumonia to invade and kill a person. It sucks.

Thanks for the disclosure of your family background.

Falling COVID-19 Death Rates

https://issuesinsights.com/2020/06/25/falling-covid-19-death-rates-are-even-smaller-than-they-look/

From the article...

While this Wuhan bug is dangerous, it is likely not as deadly as advertised. The CDC's own estimate for what's called the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), made early this month, is about 0.26%. The regular flu, by comparison, has an IFR of about 0.1%. So using the government's own likely inflated COVID-19 death data, the IFR for the Chinese-origin virus is about that of a very bad seasonal flu — and not the 3.4% first estimated.

June 24 CDC update (N.B. This link is current for this week.)  https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

(Disclosure -- Dr Timothy Craig Allen, cited in the article, is a good friend of mine.)

The virus is becoming less virulent.

What we have seen with the COVID-19 in controlled situations is this.

Diamond Princess -- Quarantined in Japan. 3711 passengers and crew; 712 infected  14 die (1.8% of infected; Mortality 0.377% of all

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess

USS Roosevelt -- 62% developed antiboides. 1 fatality among 4800,

Now Dr Matteo Bassetti at San Martino Hospital in Genova says the virus is becoming less virulent. Dr Bassetti said that patients in April are not as sick as patients seen earlier in the pandemic.

https://www.bizpacreview.com/2020/06/22/italian-infectious-disease-expert-says-covid-19-has-weakened-on-its-own-and-it-could-even-disappear-937930 (I am quoting BizPac Review to get around the paywall at the Telegraph.)

These viruses mutate and become less lethal. It does a virus no good to kill its host before it can infect someone else.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/20/coronavirus-has-downgraded-tiger-wild-cat-could-die-without/

Nevertheless, the social devastation has been worse than the disease. Overall mortality rates thru week #34 in essentially the same as the previous 4 years and are essentially at actuarially predicted numbers.



For several of my fellow posters, I offer this research as a prospective treatment.  Remember when President Trump talked about "disinfection". I found this article.

Possibility of Disinfection of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) in Human Respiratory Tract by Controlled Ethanol Vapor Inhalation

https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Possibility-of-Disinfection-of-SARS-CoV-2-in-Human-Shintake/1b94ee20e6cd598f5c44c1ad5b5ec0cad116e2a3

Hmm, a tome of Sagerian proportions...

[Ron Boerger]

JWU-Denver is closing next summer, bummer for the SCAC.

www.providencejournal.com/news/20200625/johnson--wales-to-close-campuses-in-florida-colorado

And announced yesterday that athletics have been terminated effective immediately:   https://denver.jwuathletics.com/general/2020-21/releases/20200626qrmdyx

[Gregory Sager]

Hmm, a tome of Sagerian proportions...

... with a Quillmanian number of URL links embedded in it.

[Oline89]

I'm going to assume you didn't like the comment about how C19 is labeled on deaths...

As one with family and friends in the medical field especially a father who besides being a general surgeon and a family practitioner is also a medical examiner. I ain't spinning anything. Simply telling you what people with ten-times more experience and knowledge than I explain it.

I am sorry you don't like it. But this is how it works. One doesn't die of C19 as much as you die from what it does to other parts of the body and how that then allows things like pneumonia to invade and kill a person. It sucks.

Thanks for the disclosure of your family background.

Falling COVID-19 Death Rates

https://issuesinsights.com/2020/06/25/falling-covid-19-death-rates-are-even-smaller-than-they-look/

From the article...

While this Wuhan bug is dangerous, it is likely not as deadly as advertised. The CDC's own estimate for what's called the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), made early this month, is about 0.26%. The regular flu, by comparison, has an IFR of about 0.1%. So using the government's own likely inflated COVID-19 death data, the IFR for the Chinese-origin virus is about that of a very bad seasonal flu — and not the 3.4% first estimated.

June 24 CDC update (N.B. This link is current for this week.)  https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

(Disclosure -- Dr Timothy Craig Allen, cited in the article, is a good friend of mine.)

The virus is becoming less virulent.

What we have seen with the COVID-19 in controlled situations is this.

Diamond Princess -- Quarantined in Japan. 3711 passengers and crew; 712 infected  14 die (1.8% of infected; Mortality 0.377% of all

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess

USS Roosevelt -- 62% developed antiboides. 1 fatality among 4800,

Now Dr Matteo Bassetti at San Martino Hospital in Genova says the virus is becoming less virulent. Dr Bassetti said that patients in April are not as sick as patients seen earlier in the pandemic.

https://www.bizpacreview.com/2020/06/22/italian-infectious-disease-expert-says-covid-19-has-weakened-on-its-own-and-it-could-even-disappear-937930 (I am quoting BizPac Review to get around the paywall at the Telegraph.)

These viruses mutate and become less lethal. It does a virus no good to kill its host before it can infect someone else.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/20/coronavirus-has-downgraded-tiger-wild-cat-could-die-without/

Nevertheless, the social devastation has been worse than the disease. Overall mortality rates thru week #34 in essentially the same as the previous 4 years and are essentially at actuarially predicted numbers.



For several of my fellow posters, I offer this research as a prospective treatment.  Remember when President Trump talked about "disinfection". I found this article.

Possibility of Disinfection of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) in Human Respiratory Tract by Controlled Ethanol Vapor Inhalation

https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Possibility-of-Disinfection-of-SARS-CoV-2-in-Human-Shintake/1b94ee20e6cd598f5c44c1ad5b5ec0cad116e2a3

Hmm, a tome of Sagerian proportions...

Please don't take medical advice from  a professor in the department of PHYSICS at Okinawa University.  Hoping this "scholarly" article was done tongue-in-cheek