Future of Division III

[Oline89]

I am fairly new to D3 football and I asked on this forum once about why no contact was allowed in spring football for D3.  One of the answers I got was that most D3 school did not have the training staff that would be required to maintain football along with the other spring sports.  Made sense to me.

Fast forward to 2020, and what IF (and I realize a big IF) the NCAA moves football to the spring; will D3 schools be able to handle the training staff needs for regular spring sports and now football?  I realize this may not happen but I have heard some suggesting that the NCAA may do this.

Any thoughts?

I agree with you, most D3 schools don't have training staff (or Strength and Conditioning coaches) assigned just to one sport.  In the spring, the same athletic trainers cover spring sports, so trying to cover fall sports at the same time would be impossible.  Check out the ITH podcast last week, they interview the HC from Williams who alludes to this problem

[Pat Coleman]

Agreed -- this has been pretty widely discussed as a reason why moving fall sports to the spring is not so simple at the D-III level.

[jekelish]

Agreed -- this has been pretty widely discussed as a reason why moving fall sports to the spring is not so simple at the D-III level.

Moving fall sports to the spring at the D3 level (and I'm sure at the D2 level as well, in many many cases) will be an absolute nightmare. I mean, if it keeps the doors open at smaller schools then people will find ways to make it work. But there are many, many, many small D3 schools that don't have remotely the proper support staff to adequately staff that many games in that tight a window.

[Gregory Sager]

Yep. Not only are most D3 training staffs unequipped to handle attending to a football team playing out of season in the spring, on top of the spring sports that they already have to cover (and for which they always plan well in advance), but this is true of the rest of D3 support staffs as well. D3 Sports Information departments tend to be understaffed and have to work hard to make sure that all of their school's sports are duly covered; throwing football in on top of baseball, softball, track & field, lacrosse, etc., is going to make everybody suffer in that aspect of athletics as well. And then there's game staff. Do you know how many people it takes to put on a college football game, even at this level? It takes dozens, many (if not most) of whom don't work full-time for the school and who handle their game-day football responsibilities as a side gig. Good luck getting all of those people back together out of season and running an efficient, fully-staffed game crew.

I just can't see moving football to the spring as a viable possibility on the D3 level.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Another thing to consider, there are a lot of DIII schools that rely just as heavily on lacrosse (men's and women's) as they do football. Trying to manage football and both lacrosses during the same season when it comes to locker rooms, training staffs, field usage, sports information staffs, etc. would be nearly impossible. Many schools split all of those items per the sports and combining them would be a nightmare logistically.

I just don't see it happening a vast majority of campuses with both sports.

Not to mention how bringing women's volleyball into the spring would affect the bulk of the basketball season and anyone who has men's volleyball (a rapidly growing sport). Or how soccers and field hockeys at schools that don't have four fields available would add to the nightmare.

[justafan12]

Yes, I only mentioned football but if they move that fall sport I would think they would move all fall sports.  So that's soccer, lacrosse, cross country, volleyball  and I am sure others that I am not aware of.  Would be a nightmare.

[OzJohnnie]

Here's some good news for football and all DIII.  COVID-19 is on the edge of being declassified as an epidemic and instead moving to a regular virus in circulation.  It's been 21 days since cases spiked following the riots and protests and the mortality rate, not to mention daily fatality count, continues to decline.  Unless deaths suddenly reverse then in the next couple weeks, COVID will no longer be hitting the metrics required for classification as an epidemic (In my opinion reading the CDC update).

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) decreased from 9.0% during week 25 to 5.9% during week 26, representing the tenth week of a declining percentage of deaths due to PIC. The percentage is currently at the epidemic threshold but will likely change as more death certificates are processed, particularly for recent weeks.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I'm not sure what you were reading... this was at the top of the page you linked to:

"Nationally, levels of influenza-like illness (ILI) and COVID-19-like illness (CLI) activity remain lower than peaks seen in March and April but are increasing in most regions. The percentage of specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, also increased from last week.  Mortality attributed to COVID-19 decreased compared to last week and is currently at the epidemic threshold but will likely increase as additional death certificates are processed."

So, they "remain lower than peaks seen in March and April but are increasing in most regions."

Deaths seem to be decreasing compared to the previous week (written last week), but "will likely increase as additional death certificates are processed."

So first off ... the entire length of last week saw increasing numbers of cases that the latest statement doesn't completely attribute (since it was written June 27). Secondly, did you see behavior of individuals this past weekend for the holiday? I suspect we see those numbers continue to increase.

BTW - I notice you mentioned "riots and protests," let's remember something very important: where the protests had their biggest numbers ... cases have not really increased. But states like Texas, Florida, Louisiana, and others who didn't see as much protests (and rioting, though they aren't the same) are the ones seeing skyrocketing numbers. Let's be sure we don't combine things that aren't necessarily related.

And per this information (I think they are using Johns Hopkins tracking information), we are absolutely above the max numbers seen in March and April (scroll down to see the US "new reported cases" graph): https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=sf_coronavirus

Sadly ... things aren't improving that well.

[OzJohnnie]

I'm not sure what you were reading... this was at the top of the page you linked to:

"Nationally, levels of influenza-like illness (ILI) and COVID-19-like illness (CLI) activity remain lower than peaks seen in March and April but are increasing in most regions. The percentage of specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, also increased from last week.  Mortality attributed to COVID-19 decreased compared to last week and is currently at the epidemic threshold but will likely increase as additional death certificates are processed."

So, they "remain lower than peaks seen in March and April but are increasing in most regions."

Deaths seem to be decreasing compared to the previous week (written last week), but "will likely increase as additional death certificates are processed."

So first off ... the entire length of last week saw increasing numbers of cases that the latest statement doesn't completely attribute (since it was written June 27). Secondly, did you see behavior of individuals this past weekend for the holiday? I suspect we see those numbers continue to increase.

BTW - I notice you mentioned "riots and protests," let's remember something very important: where the protests had their biggest numbers ... cases have not really increased. But states like Texas, Florida, Louisiana, and others who didn't see as much protests (and rioting, though they aren't the same) are the ones seeing skyrocketing numbers. Let's be sure we don't combine things that aren't necessarily related.

And per this information (I think they are using Johns Hopkins tracking information), we are absolutely above the max numbers seen in March and April (scroll down to see the US "new reported cases" graph): https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=sf_coronavirus

Sadly ... things aren't improving that well.

I quoted what I was reading.  I thought that was pretty clear, no?  And I quoted the likely to increase and even mentioned it in my comment.  If you have to treat my posts disingenuously in order to discuss them then I think you should admit your views are more emotional than factual.  How's that disingenuousness feel when you try it on for size?

First, let me ask this?  Did I quote incorrectly or misrepresent the statement that PIC is on the "epidemic threshold"?  No?  Ok, admit that first.

Second, did I quote that the CDC said deaths are "likely to increase"?  Yes. Ok, please acknowledge that I come to this discussion in good faith and demonstrate a commitment to transparent discussion.  After that, answer this question: what is the implication on epidemic classification if the rate of deaths continues to decline rather than reverse course?

Third, you say "where the protests had their biggest numbers ... cases have not really increased. But states like Texas, Florida, Louisiana, and others who didn't see as much protests (and rioting, though they aren't the same) are the ones seeing skyrocketing numbers".  I presented with complete transparency the information that prompted my post.  Let's see the evidence of behind your claim.

[Caz Bombers]

MIT and Smith are out, by the way.

[jamtod]

A little context and clarity may be helpful for what the CDC defines as the "epidemic threshold."
This definition isn't provided on the linked page, but it's based on when deaths attributed to the pneumonia and flu are 1.645 standard deviations above the seasonal baseline, or 7.2%. Whether the referenced article presents good news or not depends on what parts you focus on I guess, but the epidemic threshold is one key factor to look at. I suspect we are far from out of the woods on this as fall approaches, cases are not under control, and regular flu season is on the horizon - but I also hope I'm wrong.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/s0404-covid19-surveillance-report.html

[ADL70]

Here's some good news for football and all DIII.  COVID-19 is on the edge of being declassified as an epidemic and instead moving to a regular virus in circulation.  It's been 21 days since cases spiked following the riots and protests and the mortality rate, not to mention daily fatality count, continues to decline.  Unless deaths suddenly reverse then in the next couple weeks, COVID will no longer be hitting the metrics required for classification as an epidemic (In my opinion reading the CDC update).

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) decreased from 9.0% during week 25 to 5.9% during week 26, representing the tenth week of a declining percentage of deaths due to PIC. The percentage is currently at the epidemic threshold but will likely change as more death certificates are processed, particularly for recent weeks.

Seriously? You mention "riots and protests", but nothing about reopening bars and restaurants and other gatherings. Yes, you are quite transparent about your agenda.

[jaybird44]

Carnegie Mellon cancelling fall sports for 2020:

https://athletics.cmu.edu/generalnews/2019-2020/cmu2020fallstatement

Decision came after the UAA made this statement:

https://washubears.com/general/2020-21/releases/20200708fnfmig

[Ron Boerger]

Flabbergasted that no Texas schools have made a similar announcement.  The state just recorded a record high number of COVID deaths today (98) that was 60+% higher than the previous record (60) set just yesterday.  ~10K new cases for the second day running. 

https://tabexternal.dshs.texas.gov/t/THD/views/COVIDExternalQC/COVIDTrends?%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Flabbergasted that no Texas schools have made a similar announcement.  The state just recorded a record high number of COVID deaths today (98) that was 60+% higher than the previous record (60) set just yesterday.  ~10K new cases for the second day running. 

https://tabexternal.dshs.texas.gov/t/THD/views/COVIDExternalQC/COVIDTrends?%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y

I think there are a lot of things going on that aren't necessarily associated with politics, government, etc.

One AD who is at a state school told me that lawsuits are certainly a concern, but in his state the max tort payout can be $450,000. For a lot of schools, that is worth the risk where as those not protected under that provision may not want to risk it - or have the endowment to skip the year and not be hurt too badly.

I suspect a lot of state schools are trying to figure out if they can push through despite the risks and still make it work.