Future of Division III

[OzJohnnie]

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Hi -- I was just reading the graph you posted, which shows Sweden's curve finally beginning to fall. Did we redefine the terminology while I wasn't looking?

A "second wave" is your begged question.

[OzJohnnie]

Again, for perspective.

New York, Texas, Florida and Arizona normalised to the date of peak infection.  You'll see that all but Arizona had very similar infection peaks.  But mortality outcomes are entirely different.  Not even in the same ballpark.  This is due to two things:  1) better protection of the vulnerable, particularly in aged care homes; and, 2) better treatment protocols in the hospital six months into this epidemic.



This is the reality.  We are on top of this if we'll only allow ourselves to recognise that fact.

[jamtod]

Meanwhile, in America, we are further from getting under the epidemic threshold classification than we were when last discussed.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) increased from week 26 – week 28 (June 27 – July 11) for the first time since mid-April. The percentage for week 29 is 9.1% and currently lower than the percentage during week 28 (11.5%); however,the percentage remains above the epidemic threshold. These percentages will likely change as more death certificates are processed.

Wait.  First it's deny that I'm reading it correctly, never acknowledging I was until you can turn the message the other direction?  A profile in intellectual integrity there.

But since you think it's in your favor you'll accept it as authoritative?  I'll hold you to that.  Let's come back in a couple weeks.  See what it says then.

You are projecting an awful lot. Time to take a break again Oz

You need to look up what projection means.  I back up every claim I type here with evidence.

Best you take a break.  Seems when you are faced with arguments you can't explain it's just insult from you. So you can PM politely but not publicly?  I wonder if that's troubling for you.

I'll just suggest you take a look at my previous comments on the COVID View epidemic threshold (and the current PIC data) and then consider that there is plenty of engagement all around with varying viewpoints and I find many of those discussions to be fruitful and worthwhile.

Edited to tone down unhelpful rhetoric

[OzJohnnie]

Here we go.  An attempt to measure the consequences of the decisions being made to hide.  They are not consequence free. In the UK anyways.  Perhaps elsewhere these decisions carry no consequences.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/29/lockdown-has-killed-21000-people-say-experts/

Almost 2,700 people a week have died because of the effects of the coronavirus lockdown, analysis of official data suggests.

A study by economists and academics from Sheffield and Loughborough universities suggests that more than 21,000 people have died as a result of the measures, which were introduced in March.

The analysis examines Office for National Statistics (ONS) data in the eight weeks that followed the national lockdown.

Researchers said the findings show that "lockdown has killed 21,000 people" because the policy has had "significant unintended consequences" such as lack of access to critical healthcare and a collapse in Accident and Emergency attendances.

[jamtod]

Here we go.  An attempt to measure the consequences of the decisions being made to hide.  They are not consequence free. In the UK anyways.  Perhaps elsewhere these decisions carry no consequences.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/29/lockdown-has-killed-21000-people-say-experts/

Almost 2,700 people a week have died because of the effects of the coronavirus lockdown, analysis of official data suggests.

A study by economists and academics from Sheffield and Loughborough universities suggests that more than 21,000 people have died as a result of the measures, which were introduced in March.

The analysis examines Office for National Statistics (ONS) data in the eight weeks that followed the national lockdown.

Researchers said the findings show that "lockdown has killed 21,000 people" because the policy has had "significant unintended consequences" such as lack of access to critical healthcare and a collapse in Accident and Emergency attendances.

No doubt. This is a really sucky situation, where a lot of wrong decisions have been made and where there are countless unintended consequences of action that are often difficult to quantify or evaluate. With that as a starting point, perhaps there could be a good faith discussion, instead of assuming everyone who disagrees with me or you is cowering in fear or making decisions out of a disordered love of "freedom" at the expense of the common good.

I appreciated that this was mostly how our civil PM conversation went.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Fall Championships Canceled: https://www.d3sports.com/notables/2020/08/fall-championships-cancelled-whats-next

[Caz Bombers]

Fall Championships Canceled: https://www.d3sports.com/notables/2020/08/fall-championships-cancelled-whats-next

It's strange, I always believed this would be the path, I even advocated as such, but now that it's happened it doesn't feel any easier to take.

Dave, would you say now begins the time to get well and truly concerned for the future of many (a handful, a dozen, a few dozen, 100 or more?) Division III athletic departments/institutions?

[Pat Coleman]

Part of that story that Dave linked talks about that, for what it's worth.

[Oline89]

Now that we have reached this point (essentially no D3 football, less than 50% D2 and FCS, but 90% FBS playing) is it now clear to everyone that money rules NCAA sports?  If we want to say it is about safety, then the NCAA (or it's corporate sponsors) should be funding the testing of every athlete in every sport. 

[Gray Fox]

Now that we have reached this point (essentially no D3 football, less than 50% D2 and FCS, but 90% FBS playing) is it now clear to everyone that money rules NCAA sports?  If we want to say it is about safety, then the NCAA (or it's corporate sponsors) should be funding the testing of every athlete in every sport.

Daily

[Pat Coleman]

Now that we have reached this point (essentially no D3 football, less than 50% D2 and FCS, but 90% FBS playing) is it now clear to everyone that money rules NCAA sports?  If we want to say it is about safety, then the NCAA (or it's corporate sponsors) should be funding the testing of every athlete in every sport.

Daily

I mean, that's a nice statement to make and I'm sure it will be popular, but where in reality is the funding for that? There are 25,000 D-III football student-athletes alone.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Fall Championships Canceled: https://www.d3sports.com/notables/2020/08/fall-championships-cancelled-whats-next

It's strange, I always believed this would be the path, I even advocated as such, but now that it's happened it doesn't feel any easier to take.

Dave, would you say now begins the time to get well and truly concerned for the future of many (a handful, a dozen, a few dozen, 100 or more?) Division III athletic departments/institutions?

Very concerned. I was asked to make a prediction at the new year  how many schools I thought would close their doors this year. I said 6-12. I think in some ways the pandemic has helped stem the tied for the time being as everyone is in this together ... but this will now push schools that are on the edge of the end.

The next year - or less than a year - will not be pleasant for a number of schools.

[Gray Fox]

Very concerned. I was asked to make a prediction at the new year  how many schools I thought would close their doors this year. I said 6-12. I think in some ways the pandemic has helped stem the tied for the time being as everyone is in this together ... but this will now push schools that are on the edge of the end.

The next year - or less than a year - will not be pleasant for a number of schools.

If they fail, I hope it is not mid term.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Very concerned. I was asked to make a prediction at the new year  how many schools I thought would close their doors this year. I said 6-12. I think in some ways the pandemic has helped stem the tied for the time being as everyone is in this together ... but this will now push schools that are on the edge of the end.

The next year - or less than a year - will not be pleasant for a number of schools.

If they fail, I hope it is not mid term.

Most colleges tend to announce at that time and not go under ... but we are also in very different times, so I don't want to assume anything.

[Oline89]

Now that we have reached this point (essentially no D3 football, less than 50% D2 and FCS, but 90% FBS playing) is it now clear to everyone that money rules NCAA sports?  If we want to say it is about safety, then the NCAA (or it's corporate sponsors) should be funding the testing of every athlete in every sport.

Daily

I mean, that's a nice statement to make and I'm sure it will be popular, but where in reality is the funding for that? There are 25,000 D-III football student-athletes alone.

Pick a random D1 school, let's pick Rutgers.  The reason RU  can afford to play football is because that they are a member of the Big 10.  Google tells me that Big 10 revenue in 2018 was $759,000,000.  25,000 athletes x $100/test x 10 tests per athlete = $25,000,000.  Money rules NCAA sports