Future of Division III

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

In 2004 there was an article in the Houston Chronicle recommending Rice take the D3 route but I don't know if the school ever seriously considered the possibility.   According to this 2017 Chronicle article, it was a number of possible alternatives put on the table, none of which were apparently pursued.

It would've been interesting to see what would've happened if Rice had considered the change after the massive shakeup a little over a decade ago that made the SCAC a Texas-centric conference and the newly-minted SAA a more southeastern-oriented conference centered around former SCAC members. There are certainly more options for a wealthy and high-academic-cachet university such as Rice to find a D3 league "nearby" (in Texas, the word "nearby" ought to always be put in quotes ) containing schools that have a somewhat similar academic profile than there were before.

Nearby isn't even necessary for them. Rice and Tulane are UAA type schools I don't know if Rice and/or Tulane went D3 they would want to (Johns Hopkins doesn't want to) or the UAA would even have wanted them but they would fit right in.

Wasn't the JHU issue with the UAA the football situation?  They wanted one conference for all their sports?  I'm sure travel was part of that, but the UAA doesn't really demand a ton of travel - it's just expensive, which should be no problem for JHU.

[Pat Coleman]

Assuming they wanted to keep football, I think Lafayette fit with the Centennial Conference better. The former Centennial commissioner mentioned publicly this past week that they had heard from Lafayette.

[Ron Boerger]

In 2004 there was an article in the Houston Chronicle recommending Rice take the D3 route but I don't know if the school ever seriously considered the possibility.   According to this 2017 Chronicle article, it was a number of possible alternatives put on the table, none of which were apparently pursued.

It would've been interesting to see what would've happened if Rice had considered the change after the massive shakeup a little over a decade ago that made the SCAC a Texas-centric conference and the newly-minted SAA a more southeastern-oriented conference centered around former SCAC members. There are certainly more options for a wealthy and high-academic-cachet university such as Rice to find a D3 league "nearby" (in Texas, the word "nearby" ought to always be put in quotes ) containing schools that have a somewhat similar academic profile than there were before.

Nearby isn't even necessary for them. Rice and Tulane are UAA type schools I don't know if Rice and/or Tulane went D3 they would want to (Johns Hopkins doesn't want to) or the UAA would even have wanted them but they would fit right in.

And if not the UAA, either the SAA or NESCAC.  The SCAC's academic profile's not as high as it was before the split; there are certainly some SCAC schools (not all, but a decent number) that would not be welcomed in the SAA even if they were located in the South.  That as much as the travel was (IMO) the reason for the split in the first place given that there had been serious discussion of moving to a east/west model which would have greatly cut down the travel.

[NJRoyal137]

Welcome to D3, Hartford (in 5 years)

https://www.fox61.com/article/sports/ncaa/university-of-hartford-to-transition-to-division-iii/520-e654f541-872a-416f-82f2-733b5c18f218

I do wonder what this means for:

1. America East - who fills that void? Any D2 schools coming up?

2. Other D3 schools - Hartford has some nice facilities, that can actually really benefit them in recruiting at that level

3. Will more schools follow suit?

4. If enough smaller schools go down, will the NCAA amend some rules to keep basketball + football at D1?

[Ron Boerger]

Welcome to D3, Hartford (in 5 years)

https://www.fox61.com/article/sports/ncaa/university-of-hartford-to-transition-to-division-iii/520-e654f541-872a-416f-82f2-733b5c18f218

I do wonder what this means for:

1. America East - who fills that void? Any D2 schools coming up?

2. Other D3 schools - Hartford has some nice facilities, that can actually really benefit them in recruiting at that level

3. Will more schools follow suit?

4. If enough smaller schools go down, will the NCAA amend some rules to keep basketball + football at D1?

1.  no idea
2.  agreed to a certain extent, though the other two schools that have gone D1 -> D3, Birmingham-Southern and Centenary (LA), haven't seen a huge impact from their D1-level facilities.  Those schools are also much smaller than Hartford, a relatively large private school for D3 (~5k undergrads) with a middling endowment for a school of that size, $176m as of 2020 (possibly a contributing factor for the move).  Enrollment has also been on a slow decline, ~100/year, for the last five years, while the number of on-campus residents has declined almost twice as fast (per https://www.hartford.edu/about/offices-divisions/institutional-effectiveness/fact-book/enrollment.aspx).
3.  yes
4.  no.  the D3 membership is pretty clear that they don't want more D1 programs grandfathered in. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Hartford won't be eligible for postseason until 2025, but they'll be playing d3 games in 2022-23.

[jaller]

Any insight on where Hartford fits Conference wise?

[Ron Boerger]

Any insight on where Hartford fits Conference wise?

The d3hoops.com story mentions a couple of conference possibilities.   It's hard to imagine them making this move without having had some sort of preliminary discussions with conferences to ensure they had a home when the time comes.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

This happened pretty quick. The consultant's proposal showed comps for the NEWMAC, the CCC, and the LEC. LEC is all public schools, the NEWMAC has no real incentive to take a new member (even if this is Hartford's first choice), and the CCC is well placed with 10 members and probably not likely to add a school with 6000 students.  I think GNAC is most likely, but the landscape will almost certainly look different in 2-3 years when they really need a landing spot.

[jaller]

This happened pretty quick. The consultant's proposal showed comps for the NEWMAC, the CCC, and the LEC. LEC is all public schools, the NEWMAC has no real incentive to take a new member (even if this is Hartford's first choice), and the CCC is well placed with 10 members and probably not likely to add a school with 6000 students.  I think GNAC is most likely, but the landscape will almost certainly look different in 2-3 years when they really need a landing spot.

GNAC just keeps getting bigger and bigger. I imagine NEC and Mitchell will wind up there as well. Not sure what my former school is going to do.

[Ralph Turner]

This happened pretty quick. The consultant's proposal showed comps for the NEWMAC, the CCC, and the LEC. LEC is all public schools, the NEWMAC has no real incentive to take a new member (even if this is Hartford's first choice), and the CCC is well placed with 10 members and probably not likely to add a school with 6000 students.  I think GNAC is most likely, but the landscape will almost certainly look different in 2-3 years when they really need a landing spot.

GNAC just keeps getting bigger and bigger. I imagine NEC and Mitchell will wind up there as well. Not sure what my former school is going to do.

...because of how many schools go under in the next 5 years?

IMHO, we are headed for some pretty drastic economic consequences in the next 5 years.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

It's schools closing, for sure, but also conference movement.  The gnac is getting too big and the necc is getting too small and no one wants the travel involved in the nac. It's going to be a bit of a mess in NE for a while.  These new regional alignments might get re-realigned pretty quick.

[Gray Fox]

This happened pretty quick. The consultant's proposal showed comps for the NEWMAC, the CCC, and the LEC. LEC is all public schools, the NEWMAC has no real incentive to take a new member (even if this is Hartford's first choice), and the CCC is well placed with 10 members and probably not likely to add a school with 6000 students.  I think GNAC is most likely, but the landscape will almost certainly look different in 2-3 years when they really need a landing spot.

GNAC just keeps getting bigger and bigger. I imagine NEC and Mitchell will wind up there as well. Not sure what my former school is going to do.

...because of how many schools go under in the next 5 years?

IMHO, we are headed for some pretty drastic economic consequences in the next 5 years.

There was already going to be a downturn in college age demographics.

[Ron Boerger]

Redlands is the latest to cut costs by reducing staffing as a result of declining attendance (nearly a 20% loss since 2019).   34 positions (of which 18 were already vacant) will be eliminated.   

https://www.redlandsdailyfacts.com/2021/06/04/enrollment-declines-at-university-of-redlands-prompt-layoffs-reorganization/

[Gray Fox]

Redlands is the latest to cut costs by reducing staffing as a result of declining attendance (nearly a 20% loss since 2019).   34 positions (of which 18 were already vacant) will be eliminated.   

https://www.redlandsdailyfacts.com/2021/06/04/enrollment-declines-at-university-of-redlands-prompt-layoffs-reorganization/

The university's enrollment has been declining since 2015. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated that trend last year, resulting in a $13 million deficit and prompting the need for staff reductions and reorganization. Enrollment for the 2021-22 year will be 3,989, down from 4,033 in 2020-21.