Future of Division III

[NJRoyal137]

Not only is it possible, we are pretty sure it will happen.

Someone I talked to in the process of Dave and I breaking the Cabrini story said there were a dozen similar conversations going on across the country, most involving a large school and a D-III school.

Have you heard anything about Scranton? I feel like they are in a good spot but also have value.

With a $275M endowment (as of a year ago) they would not appear to be in any financial difficulty.

Yeah, they are most likely OK - I do wonder if they would look to acquire some of the smaller local schools in order to grow their local footprint and increase enrollment. There are significant operating costs that come with that, however. 

[kate]

Pat & Dave, once the fall out from the covid pandemic is over, i bet that the smaller schools will regroup and regain any enrollment that they've lost.   There are so many advantages in attending a smaller school, and as much as say, i love Temple University, it's very true that it's a dangerous neighborhood there in Philly.   Having lived in Center City 50 years ago, i can say that it's been dangerous for a long time.   Fantastic school, no doubt.   Attending a smaller school in the suburbs offers the student the opportunity to come into town without the fear of living there.   Please don't go counting out ANY D3 schools - they all have wonderful and distinct personalities and offer just as much in the way of majors and opportunities to work while at school.   As a matter of fact, i wonder about a Penn State for example - they're opening up campuses in vacant strip malls (an exaggeration of course), but what's actually the point.   Just to say that one went to Penn State???

[Pat Coleman]

Pat & Dave, once the fall out from the covid pandemic is over, i bet that the smaller schools will regroup and regain any enrollment that they've lost.

The birth rate has been steadily declining ever since 2008. Those kids are the ones of college age starting in just a couple of years -- there won't be more students, but fewer.

[Ron Boerger]

Pat & Dave, once the fall out from the covid pandemic is over, i bet that the smaller schools will regroup and regain any enrollment that they've lost.   There are so many advantages in attending a smaller school, and as much as say, i love Temple University, it's very true that it's a dangerous neighborhood there in Philly.   Having lived in Center City 50 years ago, i can say that it's been dangerous for a long time.   Fantastic school, no doubt.   Attending a smaller school in the suburbs offers the student the opportunity to come into town without the fear of living there.   Please don't go counting out ANY D3 schools - they all have wonderful and distinct personalities and offer just as much in the way of majors and opportunities to work while at school.   As a matter of fact, i wonder about a Penn State for example - they're opening up campuses in vacant strip malls (an exaggeration of course), but what's actually the point.   Just to say that one went to Penn State???

Demographics tell us there will not be as many prospective students with a "cliff" beginning as early as 2025, because families just started having fewer children around 20 years ago and the impact is now coming to the college-aged cohort.  Combine that with the increasing perception (true or not) that college educations are not as valuable / necessary as they once were and it's very hard to support your assertion, and that doesn't even consider that state schools that can offer basic tuition rates (often for in-state students) that can be an order of magnitude less than the "list price" at private schools.  The small private schools that have big endowments can offer huge tuition discounts (scholarships, grants, waivers, you name it) to the average student, but a lot of families won't even look at a school with a $50K+ list price.  Big schools also offer students that want the big school experience - including the spectacle of D1 sports - something they don't think they will find in small schools. 

I'm a *big* D3 / small-school proponent, but there are already dozens if not hundreds of schools facing serious financial challenges and absent a significant sudden influx of deep pocketed supporters and new students it is *very* hard to turn the situation around in the current climate. 

[kate]

Well, crazy me, we live in Easton, PA and we sit on the Delaware River right across from New Jersey.   We have an influx of population the likes of which i haven't seen since we've lived here.   We've been in this location for 48 years.   Perhaps these people aren't having children, that i don't know, but the population increase in palpable.   Yes, a school's endowment plays a huge part in the process of admitting good, solid students who wouldn't stand a chance of a college education even if they worked all through school.   I'm not at all privy to my favorite school's finances, but they are in an outstanding location (Central Buck's County) & have properties in Montgomery County i believe.   They have often been touted as an extremely safe school.   As for sports, watching some of these Division 1 schools, especially women's basketball, it seems more and more like a racket.   These kids transfer on a whim (some as many as four times), and i think to myself that that's no way to conduct a college program.   I prefer a local well-loved small school that builds a fan base one game at a time, and we're assured of knowing our players.   Of course they won't go pro, but have outstanding memories of their college games knowing that they playing not only for themselves, but their devoted fan base and the glory of their smaller school.   

[doolittledog]

Here is a story about how the USDA has loaned a number of small colleges money and issues smaller schools are facing at the moment.

https://www.kmaland.com/news/feds-call-loan-rural-iowa-university-shutters/article_745de0fe-1120-11ee-9332-dbff1d28640e.html

[Gray Fox]

Another article on the subject:

https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23428166/college-enrollment-population-education-crash

[kate]

Doolittledog, thank you so very much for a very informative article.   My heart broke thinking about any middle of the country college or university that affords their community with concerts and other cultural activities having to close.   I just can not emphasize enough for anyone who has a student at any of the endangered schools, or who has enjoyed any activity at their near-by college to Please, keep up your participation.   Whatever it might be, money, attendance at All said school's events, cultural or sport's related, and talking up that school.   Said on here before that every school has a distinct personality & offers specialty programs and events - an example, A-Day at Del Val in Doylestown that has morphed over the years to a country fair.  The 3-day weekend features everything that school has to offer and more with an open house for their farm on campus!   Hold tight to whatever is the Best aspect of your school and promote, promote, PROMOTE!!!   Give whatever you can!

[Pat Coleman]

Pennsylvania and New Jersey are among the states with the highest numbers of departing residents, according to annual end-of-year reports.

A report conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau ranked Pennsylvania sixth in numeric population decline between 2020 and 2021, with a loss of 25,569 people. New Jersey ranked ninth, with a loss of 12,613 people.

https://www.phillyvoice.com/pennsylvania-population-loss-new-jersey-uhaul-census/

[kate]

Pat, of course stats don't lie, but in our quarter of Pennsylvania, that population is definitely on the rise.   Sadly maybe farmers in the middle of the state are throwing in the towel and selling their farms.   I honestly don't know the make-up of our influx and most of them are apartment dwellers.   Based on the needs of the economy, nursing would be an ideal addition to the Del Val offerings.   Male & female of course.   There is a large hospital directly across the road from the school.   Again, my heart goes out to the small schools in the midwest, where as i was thinking this morning, they even have to travel greater distances to get to opponents for all their sports.   We are so fortunate here in eastern PA as we have a multitude of d3 schools within a two-hour trip.   As much as i will miss going to beautiful Lycoming, it was a haul to get there, especially in the winter.

[Gray Fox]

Pat, of course stats don't lie, but in our quarter of Pennsylvania, that population is definitely on the rise.   Sadly maybe farmers in the middle of the state are throwing in the towel and selling their farms.   I honestly don't know the make-up of our influx and most of them are apartment dwellers.   Based on the needs of the economy, nursing would be an ideal addition to the Del Val offerings.   Male & female of course.   There is a large hospital directly across the road from the school.   Again, my heart goes out to the small schools in the midwest, where as i was thinking this morning, they even have to travel greater distances to get to opponents for all their sports.   We are so fortunate here in eastern PA as we have a multitude of d3 schools within a two-hour trip.   As much as i will miss going to beautiful Lycoming, it was a haul to get there, especially in the winter.

We have been short on nurses for over 35 years.  The shortage begins with nursing instructors.

[Kuiper]

I thought this portion of the D3 Playbook column on "Conference Stability" was interesting perspective for those who see recent changes as alarming.

https://www.d3playbook.com/p/conference-stability

1. Conference Stability

Ever wonder about the stability of the core membership of Division III conferences? Now that July 1 has come and gone and schools have moved from one league to another for a variety of reasons, that got us thinking about conferences that have remained essentially intact over the decades ... and others that have not.

Today, we begin a multi-part series on DIII conferences - when they were founded, who were the charter members, and what additions or defections they have seen since their inception.

Allegheny Mountain Collegiate Conference. The AMCC began play in 1997-98 with six members - La Roche, Penn State Behrend, Pitt-Bradford, Pitt-Greensburg, Frostburg State (left 2010), and Lake Erie (left 2008).

Added to Core: PSU Altoona (1998), Hilbert (2005), Mount Aloysius (2006), Alfred State (2019), Carlow (2023), Wells (2023)

Come and Gone: Medaille (2005-2022), Franciscan (2008-2020), D'Youville (2009-2020)

American Rivers Conference. The Conference dates to December 8, 1922 with charter members Buena Vista, Central, Des Moines, Ellsworth, Iowa Wesleyan, Luther, Morningside, Parsons, St. Ambrose, Simpson, Upper Iowa, Western Union and William Penn. Reorganized in 1954-55 with Buena Vista, Central, Dubuque (added 1929), Iowa Wesleyan (left 1965), Luther, Parsons (left 1963), Simpson, Upper Iowa (left 2003) and Wartburg (added 1936).

Added: Loras (1926-54, returned 1986), Dubuque (1929), Wartburg (1936), Coe (1997), Nebraska Wesleyan (2016)

Come and Gone: William Penn (1922-54, 1962-2001), Cornell (1997-2012)

Atlantic East Conference. The founding member schools that joined the conference in September of 2018 included Cabrini (closing 2024), Gwynedd Mercy, Immaculata, Marymount, Marywood, Neumann and Wesley (closed 2021).

Added: Centenary (2021)

American Southwest Conference. The conference was founded on May 23, 1996 with Austin (left 2006), University of Dallas (left 2001), Hardin-Simmons, Howard Payne, McMurry (left 2012, rejoins 2014), Mississippi College (left 2014), University of the Ozarks (leaving 2024) and Sul Ross State as members.

Added: Mary Hardin-Baylor (1997), East Texas Baptist (1998), LeTourneau (1998), Texas-Dallas (1998), Concordia (1999, leaving 2024)

Come and Gone: Schreiner (1998-2013), Louisiana College (1999-2021), Texas Lutheran (2000-13), Texas-Tyler (2002-19), Centenary (2011-12), Belhaven (2015-22)

Coast-to-Coast Conference. The C2C was originally constituted as the Capital Athletic Conference in 1989 with charter members including Catholic (left 2007), Gallaudet (left 2010), Mary Washington, Marymount (left 2018), St. Mary's Md. (left 2021), and York, Pa. (left 2020). The CAC officially evolved into the C2C on November 18, 2020, and invited UC-Santa Cruz, Finlandia (closed 2023), Mills (left 2022), Mount Mary, Pine Manor (left 2021) and Pratt Institute (leaving 2024).

Added: Salisbury (1991-92), Christopher Newport (2013), Warren Wilson (2022)

Come and Gone: Goucher (1993-2007), Hood (2007-12), Stevenson (2007-12), Wesley (2007-18), Frostburg State (2010-19), Penn State Harrisburg (2013-19), Southern Virginia (2013-21).

[Ron Boerger]

Suprisingly, they missed Sul Ross on its way out of the American Southwest (this is their final year as they transit to D2) along with McMurry (leaving for the SCAC in 2024).  And there is a *great* deal of reliable chatter saying Texas-Dallas will be the next to take the D2 route. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Suprisingly, they missed Sul Ross on its way out of the American Southwest (this is their final year as they transit to D2) along with McMurry (leaving for the SCAC in 2024).  And there is a *great* deal of reliable chatter saying Texas-Dallas will be the next to take the D2 route.

That wasn't approved until today. The article was correct when published.

[SagatagSam]

Not only do we have the 2026 enrollment cliff, but the birthrate has continued to slow.

I saw this and thought it would be relevant to the future of D3 looking out at a timeline over the next 1-2 decades. We could be going from a bad situation in 2026 to an even worse one by the mid-2030s. Have a look at the states that are seeing precipitous drops in children ages 0-4. If I were a college administrator in the states that had 5%+ declines in young children, I would be very worried about survival. Factor in that unless you are a college with a national brand, you probably aren't pulling a meaningful percentage of your students from out of state. According to a study out of the University of Wisconsin the majority of students go to college within 50 miles of where they grew up: "At public four-year colleges, the median distance students live from home is 18 miles. That number is 46 miles for private nonprofit four-year colleges, and only eight miles at public two-year colleges."



Source: https://natpop.substack.com/p/where-did-all-the-children-go?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2016/02/03/when-students-enroll-college-geography-matters-more-policy-makers-think