Future of Division III

[Ron Boerger]

Northland says they are going to keep trying to make a go of it next year under a "refocused model" that will see them drop two-thirds of the majors the school currently offers.  They originally said they needed to raise $12M to continue - per the announcement "the Board secured several million dollars in additional funds during the exigency process to bridge the short-term deficit".

So - great to see they didn't fold up shop like so many others recently, but it's hard to see how they are going to have a sustainable future as they will no doubt lose the bulk of the students in the 16 majors that won't be offered after this year - and finding enough students interested in the remaining majors to support their athletic programs will be another challenge.  There probably aren't that many in the cancelled majors, but given their current enrollment issues (around 500 before all the chaos) losing any number won't be good.  At least some students may have already fled for greener pastures. 

[edited to clear some awkward language]

[Captain_Joe08]

Update on Northland: https://twitter.com/CorriHess/status/1785807846975709330

College will remain open on a refocused model and athletics will continue for the school.

[Captain_Joe08]

I do also believe they are adding Men's and Women's wrestling in the near future.

Honestly I feel they are being creative and realistic with the model they have going forward. Having 40 programs for a school that enrolls over 500 was really overkill. I do see them losing a few kids here and there in the less popular majors that were cut but I think going forward this is the best possible way to keep it going up there.

Ashland was trying to pull out all the stops to help get the school funded even though they were far short of what they needed.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

That's precisely what right-sizing is.  My alma mater, Eastern Nazarene College, even before COVID, essentially gave all the departments without enough students in their majors to break even, like 2 years to recruit and get the numbers up - then they cut pretty ruthlessly to make sure they filled the positions they needed to succeed financially.

Will that keep the school alive long term?  The odds still aren't great, I'm guessing, but they've been operating in the black the last couple years.  Alums get upset when their major is gone, understandably, but who's really going to argue when the choice is sacrifice the future or cut majors?

The real question here is if Northland waited too long to do it.

[Kuiper]

Keystone in danger of "imminent closure"

https://www.wvia.org/news/local/2024-05-02/050224lack-keystonecollege

Keystone College faces losing its accreditation, a loss that could seriously damage its ability to operate.

The accrediting agency, the Middle States Commission on Higher Education, warned of the possibility in an April 25 post on its statement of accreditation status page for Keystone.

Accreditation is necessary for a school's students to receive federal student loans to pay for tuition and other expenses.

The commission post also confirms what Keystone president John F. Pullo Sr. wrote in a letter to faculty Friday: that the commission thinks Keystone "is in danger of imminent closure."

[Kuiper]

Galludet announces termination of men's baseball and women's soccer teams, effective immediately

https://gallaudetbison.com/news/2024/5/2/athletics-news-.aspx

Athletics is steadfastly committed to regularly evaluating its sports offerings, recognizing the importance of staying aligned with evolving needs and trends in our student body and sport team viability. It is with a heavy heart that a decision was made to close our baseball and women's soccer programs, effective immediately

.

As I mentioned in a previous post, school closures get more press, but the net decline in the number of DIII sports teams may be just as impactful or more from the perspective of DIII athletics and conference viability

[Gray Fox]

But they have a small pool of recruits.

[Kuiper]

But they have a small pool of recruits.

Definitely true for Galludet, but it still has the same overall effect in the sense of reducing teams in a conference (UEC in their case) and teams that other schools can schedule.  This particular thread seems to have become focused mostly on financial issues lately, but a decline in the college-age population can have an effect on the number of schools fielding teams even if the schools aren't hurting for money.  That can have an effect on conferences and available opponents.

[WashJeff68]

I had some time on my hands, so I gathered some data from PAC members 2022 form 990 which are submitted each year to the (I assume) IRS. I think a key measure of a school's financial situation is the ratio between net assets and liabilities. Here is the data for the schools in the PAC. Clearly there are a few schools that don't look like they are in much of a position to weather the coming storm.  Sorry if the formatting doesn't hold, but you can get the picture.
I updated W&J's to reflect a recent $50,000,000 donation.







    Millions $       
School    Net Assets    liabilities    Ratio
Geneva            90          5            18.0
St Vincent    272          26          10.5
Allegheny    422          73            5.8
Westminster    197        40              4.9
W&J            295          63              4.7
Franciscan    235        61              3.9
Hiram            85        43              2.0
Waynesburg    77        47              1.6
Thiel            54        34              1.6
Chatham            131        84              1.6
Bethany            54        50              1.1

Averages    174        48              3.6

Late add:
Grove City   406     25             16.2
         

[mhm0417]

There are fewer men enrolled in college in 2024 than at any point in the last 50 years. This trend is not going to change as more and more young men seek careers in trades rather than pursuing higher education and mounting debt.  D3 sports might not be in trouble, but the landscape will continue to change dramatically.

[Ron Boerger]

Average tuition discount rate for first-year private college students increased to 56.1% in the current academic year, per a NACUBO study, a slight increase from the previous year's 54.8%.  For all private school undergrads, the discount rate increased from 50.8% to 51.9%.

[Gray Fox]

I just read an article in the Economist that said there has been a great increase in the number of foreign students in Great Britain.  I'm sure that can happen to many colleges in the USA.  I think most pay sticker price.  That would affect many schools differently as well as the various sports that might be involved.

[Kuiper]

Looks like Keystone is going to avoid closure, at least for the next academic year

https://www.thetimes-tribune.com/news/keystone-college-nears-deal-to-keep-struggling-institution-afloat/article_4cd5db79-b977-5c71-912f-41e259c906f3.html

"While details of the agreement are not yet public, the day-to-day operations of the college and its academic mission will remain essentially unchanged. Both parties felt that discussions had crossed a critical point which would allow the College to announce that an agreement is imminent, the statement said.

The agreement has to be reviewed by accrediting bodies for it to be final, but they intend to stay open and continue all activities, including intercollegiate sports teams

During the review period, which may take up to a year, Keystone intends to continue uninterrupted operation of classes, as well as all other college activities and intercollegiate sports, and continues to accept and enroll freshman and transfer students for the Fall 2024 semester.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Sure sounds like a merger of some kind - a larger institution operating Keystone like a satellite campus.  I'm just not sure what other entity would want/need a satellite there.

[Kuiper]

Sure sounds like a merger of some kind - a larger institution operating Keystone like a satellite campus.  I'm just not sure what other entity would want/need a satellite there.

If it's an ownership change, my guess is that the original deal with a non-profit corporation, Washington Institute for Education and Research, is either back on again after falling through earlier this spring or there is another deal of that kind with a different partner in the works

https://www.wvia.org/news/local/2024-03-01/keystone-college-seeks-approval-for-new-ownership-structure

The President of the College hinted at that a week or so before notifying the accreditation bodies of the need to consider closure plans just in case

https://www.keystone.edu/2024/04/26/keystone-college-statement-on-status-of-college-president-remains-hopeful-for-the-future/

In letters to Keystone students and their parents and to faculty and staff, President Pullo emphasized that Keystone, as it has maintained in the past, is continuing to pursue discussions with an investment partner to secure an agreement which would be in the best interest of Keystone, its students, and the entire college community. While those talks are ongoing, President Pullo noted that he is "growing more confident in successfully concluding those discussions."