Future of Division III

[IC798891]

It's not a great sign that they're facing a $30 million deficit and looking for revenue generation ideas nearly immediately after completing a capital campaign.

It looks like the enrollment is trending back, but they're still 700 off from where they were. Ideally though, the money raised in that capital campaign will result in improvements that will positively impact applications and yield

This president has big plans of increasing enrollment to 10,000, of which about 3,500 would ideally be undergraduates. We'll see how this pans out. I had a very interesting and completely off the record conversation with him at an alumni event this fall in Minneapolis.

As I've said elsewhere, schools need to take big swings to improve their campuses in order to attract students. You can't cut your way through these issues. So hopefully the capital campaign provides the sort of support they need to do that.

The challenge is that enrollment increases take time — and are of course no sure thing. And usually, the capital campaign requires your big fish and board to make major contributions, so they may not be so keen to do it agains so soon.

I do hope they — like all colleges — figure out a way to survive

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

It's interesting that we're basically headed back to where we were pre-WWII.  You'll have some elite schools offering liberal arts degrees to the well-connected and what are essentially trade schools, giving practical degrees to white collar workers.

I'm no scholar, but it seems like perhaps the end of the GI Bill's impact on higher education?  So many of these schools that expanded to receive that money are finally no longer able to survive.

[Ralph Turner]

Great post Ryan

I read a stat last week that 40% of the college grads in Texas in the 1950's were from private schools. That would be the ASC, the SCAC and the private schools in the NAIA. There were the relatively small "State Teachers Colleges", Sam Houston, Stephen F Austin, East Texas, North Texas, Southwest Texas, West Texas and Sul Ross. UT Dallas, UT San Antonio and UT Tyler did not exist.  The current "FCS" public schools were only 15-25% of current enrollment.

The challenge that I see for the small private schools (most of whom were "denominatonally" founded to educate pastors and laity) is what can you do to distinguish yourself. Across D3, I can imagine the survivors... the prestigeous historic "old guard" D3. It will be rough for everyone else.

[Gregory Sager]

Some good news to share in the D3 world.

CNU Shatters Early Application Record

The evidence points to state schools, especially mainstream state schools, being better positioned to survive the problems in higher education than private schools, so this doesn't really surprise me. The issue is value/result, and if the belief is that a) college is still worthwhile but b) it's too expensive and c) liberal arts isn't worth paying for, and that sums up a lot of the headwinds, then colleges that are cheaper and offer more career oriented programming, as many state schools do, should come out ahead.

I'm thinking this is more school specific than it is good news for the vast majority of schools that make up D3. In fact, I think this is actually bad news for most of those schools.

The State of Minnesota just created a program granting free state school tuition to families making under $80,000 in AGI. One more blow to private colleges. It may be that those same families would get a lot of financial aid from a private school anyhow, but free is hard to match.

"Free" tuition? No such thing. Somebody has to pay for it. Faculty and staff don't work for tips, and the campus's utility bills aren't written off by the local power company. That state school tuition will be paid for by Minnesota taxpayers ... which means that it's subject to the tides of state politics.

[Tigerfan]

Averett has been experiencing some financial issues this year and has made some changes.

[TheChucker]

Great post Ryan

I read a stat last week that 40% of the college grads in Texas in the 1950's were from private schools. That would be the ASC, the SCAC and the private schools in the NAIA. There were the relatively small "State Teachers Colleges", Sam Houston, Stephen F Austin, East Texas, North Texas, Southwest Texas, West Texas and Sul Ross. UT Dallas, UT San Antonio and UT Tyler did not exist.  The current "FCS" public schools were only 15-25% of current enrollment.

The challenge that I see for the small private schools (most of whom were "denominatonally" founded to educate pastors and laity) is what can you do to distinguish yourself. Across D3, I can imagine the survivors... the prestigeous historic "old guard" D3. It will be rough for everyone else.

There's another group of potential survivors, schools that promote spiritual enrichment and an environment that differs from the vast majority of secular institutions. Many parents would rather send their kids to an institution that promotes, or least doesn't criticize, holding a biblical viewpoint. From a purely business marketing viewpoint, it's important to possess points of differentiation from potential competitors.

[jknezek]

Great post Ryan

I read a stat last week that 40% of the college grads in Texas in the 1950's were from private schools. That would be the ASC, the SCAC and the private schools in the NAIA. There were the relatively small "State Teachers Colleges", Sam Houston, Stephen F Austin, East Texas, North Texas, Southwest Texas, West Texas and Sul Ross. UT Dallas, UT San Antonio and UT Tyler did not exist.  The current "FCS" public schools were only 15-25% of current enrollment.

The challenge that I see for the small private schools (most of whom were "denominatonally" founded to educate pastors and laity) is what can you do to distinguish yourself. Across D3, I can imagine the survivors... the prestigeous historic "old guard" D3. It will be rough for everyone else.

There's another group of potential survivors, schools that promote spiritual enrichment and an environment that differs from the vast majority of secular institutions. Many parents would rather send their kids to an institution that promotes, or least doesn't criticize, holding a biblical viewpoint. From a purely business marketing viewpoint, it's important to possess points of differentiation from potential competitors.

Not as many parents as there used to be. There are a lot of religious based institutions, too many. In fact, small religious based schools have been a primary driver of closing colleges. Religion in the U.S. is on a decline at a faster rate than the birth rate. While I'm sure there is a market, it's nowhere near the size of the market versus the available admission slots right now.

But, yes, I think it's very reasonable to suspect that the better known, funded, and capable small religious schools will do just fine.

[TheChucker]

Great post Ryan

I read a stat last week that 40% of the college grads in Texas in the 1950's were from private schools. That would be the ASC, the SCAC and the private schools in the NAIA. There were the relatively small "State Teachers Colleges", Sam Houston, Stephen F Austin, East Texas, North Texas, Southwest Texas, West Texas and Sul Ross. UT Dallas, UT San Antonio and UT Tyler did not exist.  The current "FCS" public schools were only 15-25% of current enrollment.

The challenge that I see for the small private schools (most of whom were "denominatonally" founded to educate pastors and laity) is what can you do to distinguish yourself. Across D3, I can imagine the survivors... the prestigeous historic "old guard" D3. It will be rough for everyone else.

There's another group of potential survivors, schools that promote spiritual enrichment and an environment that differs from the vast majority of secular institutions. Many parents would rather send their kids to an institution that promotes, or least doesn't criticize, holding a biblical viewpoint. From a purely business marketing viewpoint, it's important to possess points of differentiation from potential competitors.

Not as many parents as there used to be. There are a lot of religious based institutions, too many. In fact, small religious based schools have been a primary driver of closing colleges. Religion in the U.S. is on a decline at a faster rate than the birth rate. While I'm sure there is a market, it's nowhere near the size of the market versus the available admission slots right now.

But, yes, I think it's very reasonable to suspect that the better known, funded, and capable small religious schools will do just fine.

Among the parents I'm talking about are those that aren't necessarily religious but are very uncomfortable with the direction most colleges have gone in promoting an anti-religion or political narrative in unison. There is an opportunity for schools that swim against that trend. Most are currently religion-based but that's not a requirement.

I'm not promoting a viewpoint, just making a business case. When there is a declining number potential customers, you need to either find points of differentiation, increase market share, or both.

[jknezek]

I don't disagree, I just don't think it's that large of a market overall. Keep an eye on The New College outside Tampa FL. That will be a test case, though it's public. Hilldale in Michigan obviously does ok as well. There are others, just not sure how many can be supported.

But yes, I agree there is a market. There are plenty of Messiahs, Grove City's, ETBUs, and Wheatons and others already. Probably too many. So I expect that market is already as supported as it will be overall.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

As an alum of a denominational affiliated religious school that just closed, it's a very fine line to walk.  ENC struggled with pulls from both sides - significant parts of the alumni/donor base wanted the school to be more liberal, while another (more sizable) part thought it was already too liberal.  Neither group was excited to send their students.  Obviously, that's a problem.

I'm sure it's an issue for every religious school - fewer available students are only going to increase the pressure.

[Kuiper]

Great post Ryan

I read a stat last week that 40% of the college grads in Texas in the 1950's were from private schools. That would be the ASC, the SCAC and the private schools in the NAIA. There were the relatively small "State Teachers Colleges", Sam Houston, Stephen F Austin, East Texas, North Texas, Southwest Texas, West Texas and Sul Ross. UT Dallas, UT San Antonio and UT Tyler did not exist.  The current "FCS" public schools were only 15-25% of current enrollment.

The challenge that I see for the small private schools (most of whom were "denominatonally" founded to educate pastors and laity) is what can you do to distinguish yourself. Across D3, I can imagine the survivors... the prestigeous historic "old guard" D3. It will be rough for everyone else.

There's another group of potential survivors, schools that promote spiritual enrichment and an environment that differs from the vast majority of secular institutions. Many parents would rather send their kids to an institution that promotes, or least doesn't criticize, holding a biblical viewpoint. From a purely business marketing viewpoint, it's important to possess points of differentiation from potential competitors.

Not as many parents as there used to be. There are a lot of religious based institutions, too many. In fact, small religious based schools have been a primary driver of closing colleges. Religion in the U.S. is on a decline at a faster rate than the birth rate. While I'm sure there is a market, it's nowhere near the size of the market versus the available admission slots right now.

But, yes, I think it's very reasonable to suspect that the better known, funded, and capable small religious schools will do just fine.

Definitely the case that Christian colleges are suffering disproportionately in terms of closures.  According to one source, Christian schools make up 15% of higher education and 50% of the closures.  Some of that is because most of these schools are generally small private colleges in the midwest and northeast and face the same demographic realities as all of those schools, but some of it is a function of there being more supply than demand in the space for faith-based colleges.  As this article in Christianity Today states

Going forward, nearly all Christian colleges will have to plan to shrink, merge, or close. These difficult choices will be unavoidable and necessary.

Some blame secularism in Christian higher education, but many of the schools closing or in dire straits are what one source called "heralds of conservative evangelicalism."

Perhaps a part of the problem is that religious faith is being used as a proxy for political conservatism, which unmasks the reality that the two are part of an uneasy alliance these days, but not on all issues.  Hillsdale's relative success (and maybe Liberty's, but that is an entirely different scale) is often held up as proof of the concept, but it's hard for many existing schools to replicate it if they aren't already there.  My sense is that some parents/students just want apolitical or conservative-friendly with majors and costs that can give them better ROI, which they can get better from a lot of state schools.

[CNU85]

It's not a great sign that they're facing a $30 million deficit and looking for revenue generation ideas nearly immediately after completing a capital campaign.

It looks like the enrollment is trending back, but they're still 700 off from where they were. Ideally though, the money raised in that capital campaign will result in improvements that will positively impact applications and yield

This president has big plans of increasing enrollment to 10,000, of which about 3,500 would ideally be undergraduates. We'll see how this pans out. I had a very interesting and completely off the record conversation with him at an alumni event this fall in Minneapolis.

As I've said elsewhere, schools need to take big swings to improve their campuses in order to attract students. You can't cut your way through these issues. So hopefully the capital campaign provides the sort of support they need to do that.

The challenge is that enrollment increases take time — and are of course no sure thing. And usually, the capital campaign requires your big fish and board to make major contributions, so they may not be so keen to do it agains so soon.

I do hope they — like all colleges — figure out a way to survive

The previous CNU president, former US Senator Trible, would agree with many of your comments concerning campus improvements. From the time he took the reigns in 1996 until he retired a couple of years ago, there were approximately $1.5 Billion in capital improvements. It was a gamble but perhaps it has paid off. So far.

Take a look

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[smedindy]

"Among the parents I'm talking about are those that aren't necessarily religious but are very uncomfortable with the direction most colleges have gone in promoting an anti-religion or political narrative in unison. There is an opportunity for schools that swim against that trend. Most are currently religion-based but that's not a requirement."

Having worked in higher ed, this is a canard that has caught on with the loudmouths and parents who can't fathom anyone would hold different values and beliefs. Usually it's just one or two classes or professors that get the attention and people generalize that the math or physics departments are indoctrinating student. And some teach actual history instead of spoon-fed patriotic pablum.

"I don't disagree, I just don't think it's that large of a market overall. Keep an eye on The New College outside Tampa FL. That will be a test case, though it's public."

The New College has been a disaster - in terms of student and faculty retention - and it's curriculum is less than rigorous now. I saw a guest columnist who is a current New College believer and he touted ROI. College isn't about ROI - it's about learning. Period.

The guy who convinced DeSantis about New College is a huckster and grifter who lives in Washington State (!). Evergreen State College (Go Geoducks!) is about as far away from New College's current trajectory as you can get, and after a trying time is back on its feet with increasing enrollment and good financial positions.

I think most students want a diverse learning environment because you can't always stay in your little bubbles.

[IC798891]

The previous CNU president, former US Senator Trible, would agree with many of your comments concerning campus improvements. From the time he took the reigns in 1996 until he retired a couple of years ago, there were approximately $1.5 Billion in capital improvements. It was a gamble but perhaps it has paid off. So far.

Take a look

You can X out of the pop up

Right. You can't market your way out of these challenges, and even moves that are smart — see Ithaca adding women's wrestling, a move with a small cost that should bring in a dozen or more women who probably weren't considering IC — is a move at the margins.

Improving dorms. Keeping academic infrastructure up-to-date (if not ahead of the curve). Offering the right majors that correspond to growing professional fields. These things require significant investment, but they're what's going to keep you going

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

You're also going to need buy in from faculty to recruit, especially to less in-demand majors - something a lot of faculty have been very reluctant to do.  If you're an English professor, you might have to build a class just like the basketball coach does to ensure your department continues to exist.  That's a big change, too.

I went to ENC largely because the head of the history department called me weekly until I deposited.  He talked up the other students coming in and the accomplishments of alums.  Now that I know what athletic recruitment is like, it was basically the same thing.  He built a super strong program at a non-elite school and was way ahead of the curve.  That's going to have to become more of a norm at a lot of places.

You can't just leave it up to enrollment and marketing.