FB: Presidents' Athletic Conference

[ExTartanPlayer]

Tartans win an absolutely marvelous contest 52-42.  Just got home, will catch up on the day's happenings and post some thoughts later.  I am thrilled for the Tartans, who won their first Academic Bowl since 2006 and have notched their first seven-win season since 2007 (both of which happened while I was still lining up at left tackle).  Really a great way for CMU to show progress this season, ending the regular season on a six-game winning streak, finishing with two wins against 6-2 Chicago and 7-2 CWRU, and likely getting an ECAC game next weekend.

[SaintsFAN]

Tartans win an absolutely marvelous contest 52-42.  Just got home, will catch up on the day's happenings and post some thoughts later.  I am thrilled for the Tartans, who won their first Academic Bowl since 2006 and have notched their first seven-win season since 2007 (both of which happened while I was still lining up at left tackle).  Really a great way for CMU to show progress this season, ending the regular season on a six-game winning streak, finishing with two wins against 6-2 Chicago and 7-2 CWRU, and likely getting an ECAC game next weekend.

Congrats - that's a good win.  My initial thought reading the score/stats:  Maybe CWRU's favorable PAC schedule for the next two years won't really affect the conference race too much.  Case is young in some spots but they lose quite a bit defensively, on the offensive line and their big WR.  Recruiting will be key for them, as an insider told one of our Cleveland guys that there was concern this year if starters went down with injury - which obviously didn't happen outside of losing the RB for a stretch.  But, Cuda did lead the team in rushing so they didn't really have a backup step up at RB. 

Anyways, I counted 76 on the roster for the Spartans and frankly, to establish quality depth, they'll need more on the roster than that.  I look at TMC during this campaign and despite losing a couple OL for a couple games, a starting all conference RB for 3 games and QB health issues for 5 games - the Saints were still able to decimate their foes for 9 games and survive a big test with their last opponent while down that RB and a QB. 

I think Cuda is good enough to keep them in big games, but they'll need depth to win the biggest ones on the schedule. 

And look at what SJF did to finish 7-3.  Did they win their conference?  That 48-0 win looks a lot better than it did 6 weeks ago. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

I wouldn't be so quick to write off Case as a contender, haha, not just one week after they took Thomas More to the wire.  They had to go on the road and play a hot team in a rivalry game one week after their playoff chances were ended.  IMO it would be a little understandable (if not excusable) to be flat today.

You're absolutely right that recruiting and building depth are key, though.  Teams like CMU and CWRU have to take advantage of good seasons like this and bring in a big recruiting class to keep that momentum going.  A roster with 76 guys on it is less than ideal.  About 100-110 guys is about the right number for a D3 program.  Ideally, bringing in 35-40 guys per year with 50% four-year retention will give you 40 freshies, 30-some sophomores, 20-some juniors, and 20 seniors.

I look forward to seeing where the Saints end up in the playoff bracket.  It's a shame for them that SJF didn't get their act together just a little bit sooner; 8-2 SJF probably would have been regionally ranked and given TMC a little bonus point in the seeding process.  As things currently stand, they have zero regionally ranked wins (shame, since they have three wins against "pretty good but not quite RR" teams in W & J, Case, and SJF).  Probably means a first-round home game and then maybe going on the road after that.

[SaintsFAN]

I wouldn't be so quick to write off Case as a contender, haha, not just one week after they took Thomas More to the wire.  They had to go on the road and play a hot team in a rivalry game one week after their playoff chances were ended.  IMO it would be a little understandable (if not excusable) to be flat today.

You're absolutely right that recruiting and building depth are key, though.  Teams like CMU and CWRU have to take advantage of good seasons like this and bring in a big recruiting class to keep that momentum going.  A roster with 76 guys on it is less than ideal.  About 100-110 guys is about the right number for a D3 program.  Ideally, bringing in 35-40 guys per year with 50% four-year retention will give you 40 freshies, 30-some sophomores, 20-some juniors, and 20 seniors.

I look forward to seeing where the Saints end up in the playoff bracket.  It's a shame for them that SJF didn't get their act together just a little bit sooner; 8-2 SJF probably would have been regionally ranked and given TMC a little bonus point in the seeding process.  As things currently stand, they have zero regionally ranked wins (shame, since they have three wins against "pretty good but not quite RR" teams in W & J, Case, and SJF).  Probably means a first-round home game and then maybe going on the road after that.

Definitely not writing off any team with Cuda at QB - I had very good things to say about him and Case on last week's podcast, which I stand by even after their third loss. 

I think those three teams you mentioned have TMC better prepared for this tournament than any TMC team I can remember.  They may not be ranked and the rest of the records of their opponents are bad enough that some are going to sleep on TMC this postseason and I think that's a mistake.  They are poised for a run.  Having seen top level playoff teams over the past decade plus (mostly by trips to Alliance), I see this team has the right players in the three units where the top teams in the Division separate themselves from the rest:  OL, DL, and DBs.  Those are three units where it's hard to find real quality D3 guys as the higher divisions take the lineman with size and the skill DBs who have ball skills.

We'll see what happens. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

Well, let's take one last look at the "ExTartanPlayer PAC Rankings" for the 2015 season.  I'll add a little color here, being the last edition.  Please note that the final grades I am giving out are relative to each team's expectations, so if you see a team near the bottom with a higher grade than a team near the top, that's why.  I'm also not paying attention to where the teams fall in the official conference standings – the unbalanced schedule and oddity of some teams playing games against each other that are officially "non conference" games has created some weird stuff there (i.e. Geneva is listed below Waynesburg in the standings because only one of their wins against Grove City & Waynesburg technically counted as a "conference" game, even though that would be 2 wins against PAC teams). Without further ado:

1. Thomas More

Kickoff Projection: 8-2
Actual Record: 10-0
Season Highlights: 38-20 win over W & J, 36-32 win over Case Western
Season Lowlights: 42-28 win over St. Vincent
Final Grade: A

So an undefeated team doesn't really have any "lowlights" – however, they did have to come from behind against a merely average St. Vincent team.  However, the Saints do have plenty of highlights to enjoy: breaking a short losing streak against W & J, winning a thriller at Case Western for the league title.  Will be interesting to see where they fall in the playoff bracket.  We're all Thomas More fans now. 

Moving on...teams #2 through #5 are difficult to "rank" because they all have a common-opponent result that favors one against the other.  Case beat W& J who beat Westminster who beat Carnegie Mellon who beat Case...and around and around we go.  Ultimately, I decided to rank Case #2 because they were the only team that really pushed Thomas More through the finish line, and they also had the h2h win over W & J.  Obviously you can flip this around and point out that W & J and Westminster both beat CMU, who just beat Case, and you wouldn't be wrong.  My thinking is that the best way to break this tangle is to look at who gave the league champion the toughest game, and that's Case.  But please know that teams #2-5 here are effectively in a four-way tie for second place.  So, with that said:

2. Case Western

Kickoff Projection: 3-7
Actual Record: 7-3
Season Highlights: 35-28 win over W & J, 36-32 loss to Thomas More
Season Lowlights: 52-42 loss to Carnegie Mellon
Final Grade: A

Beating W & J was a huge program win.  Case came into the year picked 3-7 and instead was playing Thomas More down to the wire for the league title in week 10.  The season-ending loss to Carnegie Mellon may leave a sour taste in their mouths, but Case had a magical ride and things should look good the next few years with Rob Cuda at the wheel.

3. Washington & Jefferson

Kickoff Projection: 10-0
Actual Record: 8-2
Season Highlights: 35-31 win over Westminster, 38-14 win over CMU
Season Lowlights: 38-20 loss to Thomas More, 35-28 loss to Case Western
Final Grade: B-minus

Who would have known that W & J would look back at the end of the season and see those wins against Westminster and CMU as the two best teams they beat all year?  W & J did not have a bad season by any stretch, but an 8-2 record and home for the playoffs is not what they were hoping for this year.

4. Westminster

Kickoff Projection: 7-3
Actual Record: 8-2
Season Highlights: 26-16 win over CMU, 35-31 loss to W & J
Season Lowlights: 45-14 loss to Thomas More
Final Grade: A-minus

Westminster came into this season with pretty high expectations (for them) and exceeded them.  Blowout loss to Thomas More was disappointing just because they weren't competitive, but other than that they played very well all season and closed the year on a six-game winning streak.  Again, the win over CMU just looked "OK" at the time, but as it turns out that was a good CMU team.  Speaking of which...

5. Carnegie Mellon

Kickoff Projection: 1-9
Actual Record: 7-3
Season Highlights: 52-7 win over Chicago, 52-42 win over Case Western
Season Lowlights: 38-14 loss to W & J, 26-16 loss to Westminster
Final Grade: A

So I have to admit that I looked at this Kickoff projection and thought "Really?"  I knew we would be better than 1-9.  I did not know that we'd rip off six wins in a row (averaging 54 points per game during that stretch!) and have a running back go for 1,897 yards.  Much like Case Western, I think the future is bright at CMU.  I also expect that CMU will get an ECAC bowl game so they may have one more week to go.

Pause at this juncture to note: for a league that's struggled over the last couple years as basically a two-team league with W & J and Thomas More, I think this season was very encouraging.  Case, Westminster, and CMU all emerged this year as genuinely good Division III teams who would have been in the upper half of most leagues (witness CMU's blowout win over Chicago and Case pulling away from WashU late in the season).  If all three can build on this momentum, maybe next year we'll have a series of games that impact the league title race instead of just one or two games deciding the league title.

6. Bethany

Kickoff Projection: 7-3
Actual Record: 5-5
Season Highlights: 35-27 win over St. Vincent
Season Lowlights: 56-35 loss to Carnegie Mellon, 59-20 loss to Case
Final Grade: C

it's a testament to how far Bethany's program has come that a 5-5 season can be labeled a disappointment – when I was in school Bethany was really terrible - but it was.  Bethany was playing for a share of the league title late last season and per the Kickoff projection, expected to be in the mix again.  Instead they were obliterated by both CMU and Case and really were non-competitive against good teams.

7. St. Vincent

Kickoff Projection: 6-4
Actual Record: 4-6
Season Highlights: 28-21 win over Waynesburg, 42-28 loss to Thomas More
Season Lowlights: 41-13 loss to Carnegie Mellon
Final Grade: C

All of their wins came against bad teams, although to their credit they did win big; really their best result of the season was probably their loss to Thomas More, where they pushed the champs as hard as anybody besides Case Western.  Not a bad season for a team just two years removed from 0-10, but again...a couple games below their projection.  Although, as I've said, I think Bethany and St. Vincent came up short of their projections mostly because Kickoff badly underestimated how good Case and Carnegie Mellon would be this year.

8. Geneva

Kickoff Projection: 5-5
Actual Record: 2-8
Season Highlights: 41-24 win over Waynesburg
Season Lowlights: 35-7 loss to Carnegie Mellon, 41-15 loss to Bethany, 32-0 loss to Westminster
Final Grade: D

I've listed Geneva above Waynesburg, even though Geneva only had 2 wins and Waynesburg had 3, because that's just a fluke of scheduling.  Geneva beat Waynesburg head to head, and that's about where the season peaked.  Bad losses to teams like CMU, Bethany, and Westminster – teams that they were supposed to be peers with – show that this was a very disappointing season.

9. Waynesburg

Kickoff Projection: 3-7
Actual Record: 3-7
Season Highlights: opening win over Muskingum
Season Lowlights: losses to most of their peers
Final Grade: C

So Kickoff actually saw this coming, I guess.  I did not.  Yuck.  Waynesburg went from beating W & J down to the bottom of the league in one season.  Really a disappointing year for what's traditionally a competitive team.

10. Thiel

Kickoff Projection: 3-7
Actual Record: 2-8
Season Highlights: wins over Allegheny and Grove City to start/finish the season
Season Lowlights: everything in between
Final Grade: D

Somebody has to finish near the bottom of the standings, but what's disconcerting is how badly they lost when they went down.  It's one thing to lose badly against the league's best, but Thiel was giving up 50 and 60 points almost every week and only played one remotely competitive loss...against Waynesburg, who was not so good themselves.  Hopefully they can step it up.

11. Grove City

Kickoff Projection: 3-7
Actual Record: 0-10
Season Highlights: some close losses
Season Lowlights: the bad losses
Final Grade: D-minus

Actually played some competitive games early (Geneva, St. Vincent, Waynesburg) and I thought they might beat Thiel, but it wasn't to be.  I think DiDonato officially takes the reins this coming year, so maybe that will give what's usually been an "OK" program historically a bit of a jolt from the 0-10 doldrums of the last two years.  It may be a tall order to contend for the league title at Grove City, but looking back through the archives Grove City usually hovered around the 5-5 mark give or take a few games.  It would be better for the league if they could get back to that form.

[SaintsFAN]

W&L in round 1 rematch from 2010 and if we are lucky enough to advance AT Wabash on Thanksgiving Weekend.  I like their draw.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Tartans will be playing Bridgewater State on Sunday at noon in an ECAC Bowl game.

Happy for the Tartans, but I am going to write the PAC league office to suggest a move similar to the MAC and Centennial Conference deciding to play their own bowl games this year.  Makes more sense than PAC schools going up to Connecticut, and it would be neat to have a regional rivalry with a league like the NCAC or OAC, staging a game or two for the highest-finishing team in each league that doesn't make the playoffs.  Would be a really good way for up-and-coming programs (and OAC teams stuck behind Mount Union) to have a little extra bonus at the end of a good season.

[WashJeff68]

Saw the ECAC Bowl selections. Surprised to see both Westminister and CMU in and W&J not.

Jeff in Tennessee

[ExTartanPlayer]

Saw the ECAC Bowl selections. Surprised to see both Westminister and CMU in and W&J not.

Jeff in Tennessee

I don't think W & J applied?  In fact, I'm not sure W & J is even an ECAC member.

Nevertheless, I will contact the PAC office (and you should too!) about following the MAC-Centennial lead and setting up a season-ending bowl game between the PAC's highest non-playoff team and the OAC or NCAC.

[WashJeff68]

ExTartan,

According to the W&J web site they are ECAC members, participate in tournaments (eg cross country), and did play a postseason ECAC football game in 2010, beating F&M. Given W&J's unrealized expctations for this year, they may well have decided not to apply.

I'll think about your suggestion. If I follow it I may also contact W&J as well. Since there is already some cross ruffing during the regular season with the NCAC and OAC, how about an affiliation with the ODAC?

The only good news this postseason is my wife and I will not have to endure a Saturday after Thanksgiving like we did last year - freezing our butts off surrounded by Mount fans watching the Presidents get hammered.

[ExTartanPlayer]

I'll think about your suggestion. If I follow it I may also contact W&J as well. Since there is already some cross ruffing during the regular season with the NCAC and OAC, how about an affiliation with the ODAC?

Apologies, did not check to see that about the Prez.  I did not recall seeing them on the list of declared teams this year, so I'm sure that was it...I can't imagine CMU getting picked over W&J if the Prez had wanted the ECAC game.

Re: the ODAC, that's not a bad suggestion.  Some pretty long trips but most would be doable with an overnight stay...I think part of the attraction to the MAC-Centennial pairing is that those leagues are essentially on top of one another and most of their potential bowl pairings will not require overnights.  The PAC doesn't have a comparable partner quite like that.  I brought up the OAC and NCAC as the schools which seem to have the most overlap in geographic footprint, but you're right that an ODAC pairing would be fun and would create some new matchups between schools that do not play very frequently.

[Bob.Gregg]

W&J has 1st/2nd policy.  If team does not finish 1st/2nd in league standings, they are NOT going to ECAC games.

[WashJeff68]

ExTartan,

I wrote to the PAC Commissioner and the W&J athletic Director along the lines we discussed here. Be interesting to see what we hear back. I wonder if they follow this site.


Bob, Thanks. I think that makes sense.

Jeff in Tennesse - where the Volunteers are bowl eligible!

[ExTartanPlayer]

ExTartan,

I wrote to the PAC Commissioner and the W&J athletic Director along the lines we discussed here. Be interesting to see what we hear back. I wonder if they follow this site.

I hope they're interested.

Here's the thing - I can understand that for the top two programs in any given conference, an idea like this can seem lame (most of the St. John Fisher guys on the Empire 8 board are like "Ugh, stupid ECAC games" whenever their team misses the playoffs, although this year they seem a bit happier about it after the team's rocky start).  But for most of the teams in the PAC, the playoffs are an absolute pipe dream (whether the kids will admit that or not).  Since the inception of D3football.com, only five of the PAC schools have been to the playoffs (TMC, W & J, Waynesburg, CMU, Case) and the CMU/Case berths all came before joining the PAC.  I genuinely think the chance to play in a "bowl game" of sorts would be interesting/enjoyable and might spur a little extra competition among the PAC's second-tier programs when they're having a good season.  The ECAC has been a fine mechanism for that, but I fear that with the MAC and Centennial dropping out this year, the ECAC is just going to disappea...even if it doesn't, CMU and Westminster are both going to have to drive 500+ miles to Connecticut to play in this year's bowl games.  I feel like developing a conference rivalry would be a little more fun.

[WashJeff68]

ExTartan,

Share your thoughts with The Commish and the CMU AD.