FB: Presidents' Athletic Conference

[jam40jeff]

A lot of football left to play, but I haven't seen anything to indicate that CWRU isn't in the group with GCC, W&J, and CMU right now.  Also, I think Westminster might be in the lower group of PAC teams now.  It seems like there's the big 4 and then the rest, and there's quite a gap in between.

[ExTartanPlayer]

A lot of football left to play, but I haven't seen anything to indicate that CWRU isn't in the group with GCC, W&J, and CMU right now.  Also, I think Westminster might be in the lower group of PAC teams now.  It seems like there's the big 4 and then the rest, and there's quite a gap in between.

Bit nervous to make this proclamation since CMU has yet to play Westminster, and last year Westminster gave CMU an absolute fit (CMU could not move the ball at all and won 10-0 despite being outgained 212-105 on a rainy night thanks to a pick-six that stood up as the only touchdown of the game).  But...yes, Westminster's first three results against the others in the "top 5" seem to suggest that they're running fifth out of that group this year.  I still think Westminster stands pretty clearly above the jumble below, although Allegheny maybe will have something to say this week.

As for that top echelon...CMU gets to play everyone the rest of the way so they'll sort themselves out over the next month.  I do agree that CWRU is, as of this writing, clearly in that top group.  Three-point loss to Grove City and the decisive win over Westminster definitely puts them in that top 4 for now.  Barring a surprise, Grove City is walking away with the belt for this year, but one-score wins over CWRU, CMU, and W&J suggests to me that all 4 are pretty close to one another and probably classify as a grouped "Tier 1" for this PAC season wth Westminster hanging out below them but above everyone else.

The bottom half of the league is a bit messy.  OK, a lot messy.  I choose to take a bit of a "glass half full" take on that: it's actually pretty fun!  The way it's going, nobody has a clue who's going to win a game between any pair of those six teams.  I kind of love it that the teams in the bottom half of the league are all beating each other, those programs get something for their season highlight reels, the seniors get a memory of walking off a winner at least once here and there.  But boy, if you're actually trying to rank them...I thought St. Vincent might put themselves into that 6th spot (already had wins over Allegheny and Geneva, only had lost to teams from the top tier) and then previously winless Waynesburg shuts them down.  Allegheny seems to have the highest ceiling of "the rest" - having made CMU work hard for it a few weeks ago, and of course the exciting comeback bid against W&J - but they also lost to both Geneva and St. Vincent.  A win this week vs. Westminster would be a bit of a breakthrough for them.

[E.115]

^Great post.  To echo some of what you're saying, the standings are so interesting at this snapsnot in time:

- Three 1-loss teams, with their only losses being by one score each to the top dog
- The bottom six teams looking like truly "Any Given Saturday" against each other
- Westminster seemingly smack dab in the middle

2023 PAC Football Standings   
Grove City                    7-0   
Carnegie Mellon            6-1
Case Western Reserve   5-1
W&J                             5-1   
Westminster                 3-3   
Geneva                        2-4
Saint Vincent                2-4
Allegheny                     2-5   
Thiel                            2-5   
Waynesburg                 1-5   
Bethany                       0-6   

[GCC Alumnus]

A lot of football left to play, but I haven't seen anything to indicate that CWRU isn't in the group with GCC, W&J, and CMU right now.  Also, I think Westminster might be in the lower group of PAC teams now.  It seems like there's the big 4 and then the rest, and there's quite a gap in between.

Bit nervous to make this proclamation since CMU has yet to play Westminster, and last year Westminster gave CMU an absolute fit (CMU could not move the ball at all and won 10-0 despite being outgained 212-105 on a rainy night thanks to a pick-six that stood up as the only touchdown of the game).  But...yes, Westminster's first three results against the others in the "top 5" seem to suggest that they're running fifth out of that group this year.  I still think Westminster stands pretty clearly above the jumble below, although Allegheny maybe will have something to say this week.

As for that top echelon...CMU gets to play everyone the rest of the way so they'll sort themselves out over the next month.  I do agree that CWRU is, as of this writing, clearly in that top group.  Three-point loss to Grove City and the decisive win over Westminster definitely puts them in that top 4 for now.  Barring a surprise, Grove City is walking away with the belt for this year, but one-score wins over CWRU, CMU, and W&J suggests to me that all 4 are pretty close to one another and probably classify as a grouped "Tier 1" for this PAC season wth Westminster hanging out below them but above everyone else.

Just to add a note to this, GCC beat Case in Cleveland for the first time ever. I was concerned after running the gauntlet of Case, CMU & W&J in successive weeks that they would let down against Geneva and didn't. They didn't against the Gators, either.
The Wolverines remaining opponents have a combined record of 4-15. If they take care of business, they're PAC champs. Now, will they get a home playoff game remains to be seen. I kinda hope so.

[ExTartanPlayer]

A lot of football left to play, but I haven't seen anything to indicate that CWRU isn't in the group with GCC, W&J, and CMU right now.  Also, I think Westminster might be in the lower group of PAC teams now.  It seems like there's the big 4 and then the rest, and there's quite a gap in between.

Bit nervous to make this proclamation since CMU has yet to play Westminster, and last year Westminster gave CMU an absolute fit (CMU could not move the ball at all and won 10-0 despite being outgained 212-105 on a rainy night thanks to a pick-six that stood up as the only touchdown of the game).  But...yes, Westminster's first three results against the others in the "top 5" seem to suggest that they're running fifth out of that group this year.  I still think Westminster stands pretty clearly above the jumble below, although Allegheny maybe will have something to say this week.

As for that top echelon...CMU gets to play everyone the rest of the way so they'll sort themselves out over the next month.  I do agree that CWRU is, as of this writing, clearly in that top group.  Three-point loss to Grove City and the decisive win over Westminster definitely puts them in that top 4 for now.  Barring a surprise, Grove City is walking away with the belt for this year, but one-score wins over CWRU, CMU, and W&J suggests to me that all 4 are pretty close to one another and probably classify as a grouped "Tier 1" for this PAC season wth Westminster hanging out below them but above everyone else.

Just to add a note to this, GCC beat Case in Cleveland for the first time ever. I was concerned after running the gauntlet of Case, CMU & W&J in successive weeks that they would let down against Geneva and didn't. They didn't against the Gators, either.
The Wolverines remaining opponents have a combined record of 4-15. If they take care of business, they're PAC champs. Now, will they get a home playoff game remains to be seen. I kinda hope so.

Welcome GCC Alumnus!  Glad to have another school represented here.  Despite what Pat & Greg needle themselves/us for still having a forum with "2005 technology" - LONG LIVE D3BOARDS!

Absolutely agree that the right attitude for GCC to have is exactly what you said: take care of business.  Don't take anyone lightly.  We on the boards have the luxury of speaking a bit more frankly and less in coach-speak

I think a 10-0 GCC team will have a pretty good chance to host...the closed schedule basically guarantees middle-of-the-pack SOS and (probably) a 1-0 record against regionally ranked opponents.  The lack of OOC opponents unfortunately limits any ability for the PAC to enhance that resume.  I'd love for Pat, Greg, and any other longtime D3 Playoff Geeks to chime in...but if you were GCC, I presume you've gotta be rooting for one of (CMU, W&J, CWRU) to run the table against the others and finish 9-1 which (probably...though not 100% certain) gets you the best chance at a "regionally ranked" win?  Maybe if you get a clean 10-0 / 9-1 / 8-2 / 7-3 at the top you could even get lucky with the (second place) 9-1 ranked and the (third place) 8-2 squeezing in at the very bottom of the final RR's.  You definitely don't want any of the (CMU, W&J, CWRU) group to lose to anyone else - eg you definitely want CMU to beat Westminster to make sure the "best wins" they have are against teams with the best possible records.  A funny quirk of the closed system.  And I think you're better off with the clean 9-1, 8-2, 7-3 vs. any combination of these teams beating each other (three 8-2's among those three could mean that none of them end up in the final RR's).

When your SOS is a guaranteed .500, the only path you have to better criteria on paper seems to be more teams regionally ranked, so you don't benefit from any upsets of team #2 or #3 in your conference.  Need them to finish with the best records you can so a couple of them eke into the final RR's.

[Pat Coleman]

About the technology -- I'm just still glad that it runs! But it is the reason why it goes down so often.

[Pat Coleman]

About the rankings, yeah, it's probably best for seeding chances if there's a 10-0 team, a 9-1 team and an 8-2 team. It's been so long since we had a conference with a closed schedule (2000) that I don't know that we can really draw from any of the track record.

[mikefln]

My Power Rankings after week 7 -

Tier 1

1) Grove City- One game at a time, don't lose focus and they are the PAC rep in the playoffs 
2A) W&J- Big game this week for spot number 2. 
2B) CMU – Big game this week for spot number 2. 

Tier 2

4) Case- They did play GCC the closest so far this year, but they were also home.  They will get their chance as soon as next week to prove they belong in Tier 1

Tier 3

5) Westminster- There is a much noticeable drop between them and the top 4 teams
6) Allegheny- I am giving them respect, if they lose against Westminster and Thiel I may have to put them with the rest of the pack at the bottom.

Tier 4


7) SVC- A sure fire lose this week with GCC.  After that have 3 games they can win all of them to finish a strong 5-5.
8)Geneva- Picks up the win over Thiel.  4 games left and 2 of them are winnable.  1 of them is Westminster which will be a battle to win.  Leaving only the W&J game a a sure thing lose.
9) Thiel- 3 games left.  1 a sure fire lose to GCC.  1 is winnable.  Then Allegheny which is winnable but will take a very strong showing.
10) Waynesburg- Finally got a win.  4 games left and only 2 of them are winnable.
11) Bethany- The only winless team left and still needing to play GCC.  The best chance of victiory is Waynesburg and SVC both at home.

[GCC Alumnus]

A lot of football left to play, but I haven't seen anything to indicate that CWRU isn't in the group with GCC, W&J, and CMU right now.  Also, I think Westminster might be in the lower group of PAC teams now.  It seems like there's the big 4 and then the rest, and there's quite a gap in between.

Bit nervous to make this proclamation since CMU has yet to play Westminster, and last year Westminster gave CMU an absolute fit (CMU could not move the ball at all and won 10-0 despite being outgained 212-105 on a rainy night thanks to a pick-six that stood up as the only touchdown of the game).  But...yes, Westminster's first three results against the others in the "top 5" seem to suggest that they're running fifth out of that group this year.  I still think Westminster stands pretty clearly above the jumble below, although Allegheny maybe will have something to say this week.

As for that top echelon...CMU gets to play everyone the rest of the way so they'll sort themselves out over the next month.  I do agree that CWRU is, as of this writing, clearly in that top group.  Three-point loss to Grove City and the decisive win over Westminster definitely puts them in that top 4 for now.  Barring a surprise, Grove City is walking away with the belt for this year, but one-score wins over CWRU, CMU, and W&J suggests to me that all 4 are pretty close to one another and probably classify as a grouped "Tier 1" for this PAC season wth Westminster hanging out below them but above everyone else.

Just to add a note to this, GCC beat Case in Cleveland for the first time ever. I was concerned after running the gauntlet of Case, CMU & W&J in successive weeks that they would let down against Geneva and didn't. They didn't against the Gators, either.
The Wolverines remaining opponents have a combined record of 4-15. If they take care of business, they're PAC champs. Now, will they get a home playoff game remains to be seen. I kinda hope so.

Welcome GCC Alumnus!  Glad to have another school represented here.  Despite what Pat & Greg needle themselves/us for still having a forum with "2005 technology" - LONG LIVE D3BOARDS!

Absolutely agree that the right attitude for GCC to have is exactly what you said: take care of business.  Don't take anyone lightly.  We on the boards have the luxury of speaking a bit more frankly and less in coach-speak

I think a 10-0 GCC team will have a pretty good chance to host...the closed schedule basically guarantees middle-of-the-pack SOS and (probably) a 1-0 record against regionally ranked opponents.  The lack of OOC opponents unfortunately limits any ability for the PAC to enhance that resume.  I'd love for Pat, Greg, and any other longtime D3 Playoff Geeks to chime in...but if you were GCC, I presume you've gotta be rooting for one of (CMU, W&J, CWRU) to run the table against the others and finish 9-1 which (probably...though not 100% certain) gets you the best chance at a "regionally ranked" win?  Maybe if you get a clean 10-0 / 9-1 / 8-2 / 7-3 at the top you could even get lucky with the (second place) 9-1 ranked and the (third place) 8-2 squeezing in at the very bottom of the final RR's.  You definitely don't want any of the (CMU, W&J, CWRU) group to lose to anyone else - eg you definitely want CMU to beat Westminster to make sure the "best wins" they have are against teams with the best possible records.  A funny quirk of the closed system.  And I think you're better off with the clean 9-1, 8-2, 7-3 vs. any combination of these teams beating each other (three 8-2's among those three could mean that none of them end up in the final RR's).

When your SOS is a guaranteed .500, the only path you have to better criteria on paper seems to be more teams regionally ranked, so you don't benefit from any upsets of team #2 or #3 in your conference.  Need them to finish with the best records you can so a couple of them eke into the final RR's.

Thanks for the welcome! Sorry about the coach speak; I'm enjoying the ride. I was worried about Geneva as we just ploughed through the Big 3 and a possible letdown.

W&J and CMU hook it up this week. Then W&J takes on Case next week and then there's the Academic Bowl between Case & CMU on 11/11. CMU is 6-1 and the other two are 5-1; with the round robin, things could get muddled as you could get a couple of 2 loss team. I'm assuming that wouldn't work in our favor.

I'm honest when I say I'm going to be very happy just making the playoffs.  A home game would put me over the moon. To see where we came from (losing 30 straight games) to now (4 ECAC bowl wins and possible PAC title) has been awesome to see.

What would you rate the odds of a home GCC playoff game to be? And who would be a likely opponent?

[ExTartanPlayer]

I'm honest when I say I'm going to be very happy just making the playoffs.  A home game would put me over the moon. To see where we came from (losing 30 straight games) to now (4 ECAC bowl wins and possible PAC title) has been awesome to see.

What would you rate the odds of a home GCC playoff game to be? And who would be a likely opponent?

Absolutely.  I've been very impressed with the progress under DiDonato, albeit not surprised (to date myself...his first 2 years at GCC were my last 2 years at CMU, so I recognized the name when he was hired). 

It's always dangerous to try to predict the way a D3 playoff bracket will come together, because it's not as simple as seeding the teams #1-32 and stickign them on a typical bracket.  With the desire to minimize flights and the 500-mile rule for bus trips, you can get weird pairings.  A 10-0 GCC with a win over a 9-1 "second place" team would be a decent resume.  Going unbeaten with .500 SoS and 1-0 vs. regionally ranked opponents is a pretty standard resume among conference champions, but it's going to place above just about anyone that has a loss, and I suspect it probably will be good enough to rank in the top-half of the seeds.  CMU getting a home game last year with a similar resume is a positive sign, but last year we also had the benefit of a couple decent non-conference results for the league (CMU beating RPI and Whitworth, W&J beating John Carroll) while the totally closed system prohibits that this year.

I'll peg the odds of a home game for "10-0 Grove City with a win over 9-1 PAC runnerup who also ends up regionally ranked" as somewhere north of 50% but south of 100% - in part because...

Likely opponents are difficult to guess.  If it's your first time really looking hard at such things, it's important to know that at-large selection happens first, then the brackets get built with the teams that are in.  Sometimes people suspect that selection of at large teams is affected by who makes the most convenient playoff travel matchups, but that is not true.   You start with the automatic qualifiers in, then select the at large teams, then identify the top 4 teams to be #1 seeds, then 4 brackets get built around those top seeds with a tacitly acknowledged mission of building a fair-ish bracket while minimizing the number of expected flights needed.  So you won't necessarily just play the team closest to you, because it has to fit into the bigger picture.

It might be easier to narrow it down something like this: if you stay undefeated...

- you won't likely be matched against a top seed in the first round.  So you'll probably avoid the Mount Union/North Central type teams in round #1. 

- you probably won't get to play one of the absolute lowest seeds, either, as those teams will generally be cannon fodder for the top seeds (e.g. you're not getting to host the UMAC champ in round 1).

- you probably won't play anybody from Minnesota/Wisconsin/Illinois/Iowa conferences (MIAC, WIAC, CCIW, ARC, MWC) because there are lots of teams all in that region that can get paired with each other.

- you probably won't play anybody from the West Coast or Texas (those teams tend to get paired with each other in a little pod since they basically all have to fly no matter who they're playing).

So who does that leave?  Some possible first-round opponents for a 10-0 PAC champ is likely a conference champ from one of the following: NCAC (like DePauw last year), HCAC, MIAA, ODAC, USAC, NJAC, Liberty League, Empire 8, Centennial.  Just quickly eyeballing, I suspect the champions of most of those leagues will end up within driving distance (500 miles) of Grove City, and most will similarly fall into that middle tier where they're not likely getting a top seed but nor are they likely to be sent to a top seed in the first round.

[Pat Coleman]

It is super difficult to guess, but I agree that a Grove City home game is fairly likely -- probably 75% chance -- and XTP did a great job of laying out the possible opponents. There are many.

[Jay Murry]

Hello All,

While I will be following from afar WashU's efforts against North Central, it won't be idle following.

I will be in the midst of my Rett Gets Rocked 2023 24-hour ultramarathon at WashU to raise awareness of Rett syndrome and research funds to find a cure.  I'm starting around 8:00 Friday night (after I provide the call for the WashU-Saint Louis U. swimming and diving meet), and ending at 8:00 Saturday night. 

Rett syndrome is a neurological disorder caused by a gene mutation on the X chromosome.  It lays in the weeds until a child is between 6-18 months old, just when a child is learning to walk and talk.  Rett is like Lucy in the Peanuts comic strip when she pulls the ball away from Charlie Brown, as he tries to kick it.  Unlike Charlie Brown...when Rett pulls the ball away from children, they don't get a chance to get up and try again.  Children go into severe neurological regression; many end up in wheelchairs and most lose the ability to talk and to do sign language.  Those with Rett also are prone to seizures, extreme nerve pain, GI issues, breathing abnormalities, and eating difficulties that can all be life-threatening.

Researchers are relentless, providing hope on two fronts.  Back in March of this year, Daybue became the first FDA-approved drug to target the effects of Rett syndrome.  Daybue helps blunt some of the seizures and has helped improve some vocal and gross motor skills.  Gene replacement therapy clinical trials in two North American locations have helped one patient sit up independently for the first time in a decade, and to grasp objects for the first time since infancy.

It is this momentum of hope and progress that I am trying to assist and perpetuate.

If you would like to make a donation, click on this Rett Racers link:  https://rettracers.funraise.org/fundraiser/jaymurry

The families of children who have Rett and fight a tough fight every day, will be very grateful for your help.

Thank you for your time and consideration, and enjoy the games this weekend!

[E.115]

Bravo to CMU vs W&J first half ... 32-7 halftime lead

[ExTartanPlayer]

Bravo to CMU vs W&J first half ... 32-7 halftime lead

Well. I enjoyed that.

CMU came out flying on both sides of the ball and W&J just seemed a little flat footed for the first 30 minutes. Main thing CMU did schematically was come up with some wrinkles using RB Will Bouma in some wildcat formations and with some play calls (the fake bubble screen / QB draw) they hadn't used to date. Those caught W&J unprepared and led to several big plays. CMU got the early turnovers and big plays and was able to coast home after getting the big halftime lead. Great game for the Tartans. Amazing that CMU has now won four straight in that series.

[GCC Alumnus]

Bravo to CMU vs W&J first half ... 32-7 halftime lead

Well. I enjoyed that.

CMU came out flying on both sides of the ball and W&J just seemed a little flat footed for the first 30 minutes. Main thing CMU did schematically was come up with some wrinkles using RB Will Bouma in some wildcat formations and with some play calls (the fake bubble screen / QB draw) they hadn't used to date. Those caught W&J unprepared and led to several big plays. CMU got the early turnovers and big plays and was able to coast home after getting the big halftime lead. Great game for the Tartans. Amazing that CMU has now won four straight in that series.

That's quite impressive, given W&J is a tough game regardless. Now, I'm the biggest Grover CMU fan there is.  The Academic Bowl probably will determine who finishes second. Worse is that you get an ECAC bowl game which are a nice consolation prize. The PAC usually gets 2-3 teams in bowls.