FB: Presidents' Athletic Conference

[E.115]

The battle in Cleveland is looming!

W&J Preview: http://gopresidents.com/documents/2015/10/21//2015_game_notes_CWRU.pdf?id=106

I didn't realize it was Ruffing who tore up CWRU last year. 

A season ago, W&J posted a 34-24 victory over the Spartans on Homecoming, behind 28 second half points and four Ryan Ruffing touchdowns.

Plus, he'll be coming into the game fresh off "PAC Offensive Player of the Week" accolades: http://gopresidents.com/news/2015/10/19/FB_1019154029.aspx

CWRU Preview: http://athletics.case.edu/sports/fball/2015-16/releases/20151021f8wzez

[Pat Coleman]

#12 - Thomas More - Again, I know nothing about Thomas More.  The only thing that I can see is that the winner of their conference in 2014, W&J, had a playoff loss to MUC 67-0. (and Thomas More lost to W&J by 23 points..). And the PAC is 12-18 in the playoffs.  I'd definitely place UWP, St Johns and North Central ahead of Thomas More.  Frankly they seem to be at best a Top 15-25 team until they show it in the playoffs (or a team from their conference).

Not getting into all the reasons all those things happened.
Just gonna list a fact correction.
Don't know where you got PAC is 12-18 in the playoffs, but W&J alone is 22-24 in the NCAA tournament, all of those as a PAC-member school.

In the automatic bid era, the PAC is 12-18.

http://www.d3football.com/interactive/faq/playoffs#9

[Bob.Gregg]

That's not what Walla Walla wrote.
I knew exactly what he was talking about, but what he wrote wasn't accurate, or certainly not complete.

[Pat Coleman]

That's not what Walla Walla wrote.
I knew exactly what he was talking about, but what he wrote wasn't accurate, or certainly not complete.

That's true. If anything, it's too long a span. We should cut the time span back even further.

[Bob.Gregg]

Fact is, what any team or conference did last year, last decade, last century is purely historical information with no actual relevance to ranking, selection, seeding of current squads.  "Past performance is no predictor of future success."

So, since you're clearly in charge, cut the time span back even further.

[Pat Coleman]

So, since you're clearly in charge, cut the time span back even further.

Can I cut the time span back to where you don't come at me with that assumption or attitude? Just trying to translate the conversation since you said you didn't know where the 12-18 number came from. Maybe you actually do but since that conversation was brought here without much context, it's reasonable to infer that other people don't know what the 12-18 signifies -- it's the most recent 16 years of playoff performance by teams who were PAC members at the time. Seems like a track record of sufficient length.

[Bob.Gregg]

Here's the full attitude and assumption:

I don't believe in any fashion that W&J's playoff history should play any part in the determination of this year's teams or their seedings.
I don't believe in any fashion that the PAC 16-year playoff performance should play any part in the determination of this year's teams or their seedings.
I don't believe in any fashion that the PAC all-time playoff performance should play any part in the determination of this year's teams or their seedings.

My statement about not knowing where the 12-18 came from was a simple statement of incomplete facts. 
Hell, the OAC is 0-1 in the playoffs....but, of course, that only includes the most recent game they played.  But it IS factual.

The years since expansion is certainly a time frame of sufficient length, but it's not complete, any more than OAC is 0-1 statement is complete.

[Ralph Turner]

Here are the 18 tourney appearances for the Presidents' Athletic Conference in the modern era.

Almost always one per year as a Pool B from 1999 thru 2004, (except 2003). That is 5.  ( W&J goes 5 wins and 5 losses.)

The Pool A for the next 10 years. That is 10 more. (The conference Pool A goes 5-10.)

Pool C bids earned by W&J in 2005, 2008 and 2009.  (W&J goes 0-1, 2-1 and 0-1 as a Pool C, a 2-3 record)

That is 16 years and 18 teams.

[Ralph Turner]

What can we consider an average conference?

Over 10 years if you win half of your first round games, then you are no worse than 5 wins and 10 losses for the decade  as a conference.

For this discussion, let's move the time frame out to 16 years. 8 wins and 16 losses thru 2 rounds, .333.

Consider four more wins thru the third round (The Round of 8).  That makes the conference 12-16 for a percentage of .429. 

Two more wins if you make it to the semi-finals, 14-16, .467 percentage. That is almost stratospheric.

If you win the Stagg Bowl, your conference is 15-16 (.484), and still below .500.

I think that puts the bar at .333 for "average".  It may not be the median.  The list in the FAQ shows 32 present and defunct conferences plus  "independents".)  The Centennial is 9-18 and 14th from the bottom,  but we usually don't think of JHU as "average", but those are the statistics. 

[Bob.Gregg]

Pat, Ralph, and all...

Thanks for what you do for D3 Football.

I guess i'm too old because I had already covered the sport for 15+ years before your version of "the modern era" began...
Heck, by your timing, W&J was already 13-11 in the playoffs.

For me, the "modern era" started somewhere around the end of WWII, or at least 1970.

[Pat Coleman]

Regardless of your age, I think it's fair to say that a substantial change happened in 1999. The playoff bracket grew by 75% and lots of teams had access to the tournament that did not have it previously.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Well, now that's over with, so let's talk a little bit about the Case Western-W&J game, which will tell us if we can expect anything interesting coming down the stretch.  Technically, Case is not eliminated from the league-title picture with a loss; they could upset Thomas More and create a three-way tie atop the league standings - but it's pretty hard to imagine Case beating TMC if they do not beat W & J.  And there's an interesting trickle-down here, too.  W& J needs the win to finish 9-1 and have a fighting chance in Pool C.  Thomas More would probably prefer that W & J win because 9-1 W & J will stay in the regional rankings and give them a little boost in their playoff seeding, maybe getting them a second-round home game if things break right, instead of the chance to go play Mount Union.  If W & J loses, it's no slam-dunk that either 8-2 W & J and/or 8-2 Case Western will be in the RR's (for that matter, Westminster also has the chance to finish 8-2, but if W & J is not ranked, they won't be either).

Case Western is a program that does have some recent history of playoff appearances under the current head coach, but several years removed from that era.  It was starting to look like the product of one superior player, Dan Whalen, rather than a program-wide shift in overall talent at CWRU.  The first couple of post-Whalen teams still enjoyed some carry-over success, but even those were starting to fade, and no current player on the Case roster has had a better season than 6-4 since arriving in Cleveland.  Coming into this season, I don't think anyone would have projected last year's 3-7 squad to come storming out of the gates quite the way this year's Spartans have done.

Washington & Jefferson has been the preeminent PAC power for decades now, arguably sharing that mantle with Thomas More in the 2000's, but overall W & J has the most name-brand recognition of any PAC program nationally.  Their program history speaks for itself.

What does Case do well?  Play Rob Cuda at quarterback.  Cuda's numbers are bonkers.  The Case offense has hummed along all year with the sophomore QB pulling the trigger, and he can run pretty well, too.

What doesn't Case do well?  Run the football with players not named Rob Cuda.  Part of this is a product of sharing the load between several different RB's, but none stands out with an especially high yards-per-carry, either.  I don't know if they can hurt you with other guys.

What aren't we sure about?  The Case defense.  CWRU gave up 31 points to the only good team they've played this season, Chicago (5-1 themselves, with their only loss to another 5-1 team).  That's not really awful, as Chicago's offense has been fairly productive overall, but it makes it a little hard to tell whether Case's recent run of dominance on that side of the ball is due to mediocre opposition or their defense really turning a corner.  They did reasonably well against Bethany (don't laugh; despite Bethany's 2-5 record, their offense is pretty good).  I don't think the Case D is a complete shutdown unit, but it's not a total sieve, either.

Worth noting: whether Case wins this game or not, it looks like an exciting time to be a Spartan fan moving forward.  Cuda is a sophomore.  Four of the six guys with 10+ receptions will be back next season.  Five of the six top rushers will be back next season.  The offensive line starts one senior.  The defense is a bit more senior-heavy but the secondary is anchored by three guys who will be back next year.

OK.  Let's take a look at the Prez:

What does W & J do well?  Score points.  Coughlin and Ruffing are about as good as it gets at their positions at schools that don't wear Purple.  Coughlin does not boast quite the numerical insanity of Cuda but, having seen him play, he can ball.  The Prez have some really good receivers, too.

What doesn't W & J do well?  Stop the other team.  303 yards by Sam Benger (most of that in the first half, when it was still competitive).  42 points by Bethany (some garbage-time fourth-quarter, but the Bison had 21 on the board by halftime, too).  31 points by Westminster.  38 points by Goose Cohorn and the Saints (should be a band, by the way).  W & J's fabulous offense has kind of masked the fact that their defense is decidedly average.

What aren't we sure about?  If that defense is just kind of a product of big-scoring offense letting them fall asleep at the wheel once in a while.  Maybe they can produce a shutdown day if they need to.  Maybe the sorta one-dimensional nature of Case's "Cuda Does Everything" offense will be easier to stop than some of the other attacks they've faced this season.

As noted above, the stakes are reasonably high here for both sides.  It's CWRU's first chance to prove themselves against a name-brand, high-quality opponent.  It's W & J's chance to stay alive in Pool C and firmly establish that it's them + Thomas More, then everyone else playing for third.  I'm excited to see what happens.  All the ingredients are in place for a shootout.  Give me the Spartans in a barnburner.

[SpartanMom_2016]

Does anyone know how the PAC gets its statistics online? 

I was about to answer ExTartan's question about who is having an outstanding season by pointing out that CWRU's front seven as a unit is having a fantastic season.  It's not about one player within the unit.  All the starters (and some non starters) are solid and together they make an outstanding unit.   

I was sure that I would find that all of CWRUs starting LB PLUS a few non starters were among the conference leaders in tackles per game.  What I found was that despite having 5 linebackers who are averaging more than 2.3 tackles per game (lowest on the list) none of them are listed as conference leaders for tackles at LB.  That's right the four starting LB PLUS ONE MORE are among the conference leaders in tackles at LB.

Three DE/DL are also among the league leaders at their positions for tackles.  They are on the PAC website.

[Pat Coleman]

I find it interesting that the Case stats on the PAC website do not match the Case stats on the Case website. Schools aren't supposed to be changing defensive stats after the game so I don't know why there is a discrepancy.

[SpartanMom_2016]

My guess is that the school is NOT changing the statistics.  Perhaps there is something wrong with the feed they are using.

Edited to add.  Sandige is among leaders in tackles but not among leaders for LB.  Perhaps the designations ILB and OLB don't map to the right places.  I am sure it is a computerized process.

Suren is also missing from the PAC leaders among DB.