FB: Presidents' Athletic Conference

[ExTartanPlayer]

I was sure that I would find that all of CWRUs starting LB PLUS a few non starters were among the conference leaders in tackles per game.  What I found was that despite having 5 linebackers who are averaging more than 2.3 tackles per game (lowest on the list) none of them are listed as conference leaders for tackles at LB.  That's right the four starting LB PLUS ONE MORE are among the conference leaders in tackles at LB.

With all due respect to the Case LB's, the number of tackles is not something I would cite as evidence of their quality. 

For one, tackles are one of the most variable things across schools in how they are counted (like assists in basketball).  Unlike a rush for 5 yards, which has no room for interpretation, tackle statistics can be quite variable.  Some schools will award anyone vaguely involved in the play an "assisted" tackle.  Some might be a lot stingier in giving out those assists.

For two, the number of tackles is a function of the number of plays the opponent runs.  Really good defenses that get off the field quickly will not rack up big tackle numbers just because they're not on the field much.  My high school alma mater has been killing everyone they play this year; they're up by 35 at halftime almost every week, and the first-team defense usually has a handful of three-and-outs before giving way to the jayvees.  We have starting linebackers that might only have 3 or 4 tackles/game because they're off the field after 15-20 defensive snaps every week.  Oh, and good defenses that force a lot of incomplete passes...less tackles because nobody gets a "tackle" on an incomplete pass.

This isn't to say that tackles are a worthless stat or that guys who have big tackle numbers do play on bad defenses.  But I think that the number of tackles is somewhat more informative within a team because it can show which defensive players are the most active around the ball on that team, while comparing them between different teams is...well, it has its problems.

I mean, I hope you're right that the Case linebacking unit is going to go out there and swallow Ryan Ruffing and Pete Coughlin whole tomorrow, but just thought this was worth pointing out.

Also, SpartanMom, check your PM's.  Not sure if you do that regularly but I sent you something re: the CMU-CWRU game in a couple weeks.

[SpartanMom_2016]

You really don't think it means ANYTHING that FIVE linebackers are among conference leaders in tackles? I agree with your analysis of why tackles are not the most meaningful statistic but it does have some significance when you are looking at the front seven as a whole (and in context).  When each of your starting front seven, plus an additional player is among the conference leaders that has to say something about the unit.

Looking at the numbers in context tells you that opponents have only run the ball 177 times in 6 games.  That is the lowest in the PAC.  That tells you that teams have seen film and respect the front seven.  It also shows that Case has been ahead much of the time and teams have had to abandon the run. Additionally, it shows that as a unit these guys are having a great season.

I think they have a mighty task ahead of them with W&J.

I answered your PM.  If it didn't go through I will send another reply.

[ExTartanPlayer]

First - PM didn't go through, so please try again!  Glad that I checked.

You really don't think it means ANYTHING that FIVE linebackers are among conference leaders in tackles? I agree with your analysis of why tackles are not the most meaningful statistic but it does have some significance when you are looking at the front seven as a whole (and in context).  When each of your starting front seven, plus an additional player is among the conference leaders that has to say something about the unit.

No, I really don't think it does.  (Well, maybe it says that they have five guys who play a lot at LB?)

Case's leading tackler (overall), per the Case website, has 32 tackles.  The Bethany defense has seven guys listed with 32 or more tackles (yes, Bethany has played one more game than Case, but even if Case had one more game played, Bethany would still have probably five guys with more tackles than anyone on the Case defense).  Those tackle numbers don't mean anything; the Bethany defense sucks.  Why do those guys have so many tackles?  For one, they can't stop anybody, which means lots of long drives by their opponents, and for two, their offense plays at 100 miles per hour, so they're always on the field.  Lots of plays = lots of tackles to make.

Please do not get the wrong message here.  The Case linebackers might be absolutely fabulous.  I'm really not disputing that.  But the tackle numbers are definitely not how one would make that Case (ha!).  The opponent's low rushing yardage total, low yardage per carry, low points-allowed...that's what tells me that the CWRU linebackers are really good.  But just counting tackles?  Nah.  Like I said, the finite number of tackles available to every team is dependent on the number of plays the opposition runs, the number of passes completed vs. incomplete, etc.  Bethany's defense has a ****load of "tackles" and it's one of the worst in Division III.

[SpartanMom_2016]

I think you have to look at the front seven as a unit not just the linebackers.  They have an outstanding DL.

[SaintsFAN]

You really don't think it means ANYTHING that FIVE linebackers are among conference leaders in tackles? I agree with your analysis of why tackles are not the most meaningful statistic but it does have some significance when you are looking at the front seven as a whole (and in context).  When each of your starting front seven, plus an additional player is among the conference leaders that has to say something about the unit.

Looking at the numbers in context tells you that opponents have only run the ball 177 times in 6 games.  That is the lowest in the PAC.  That tells you that teams have seen film and respect the front seven.  It also shows that Case has been ahead much of the time and teams have had to abandon the run. Additionally, it shows that as a unit these guys are having a great season.

I think they have a mighty task ahead of them with W&J.

I answered your PM.  If it didn't go through I will send another reply.

That 177 attempt number is about to spike over the last three weeks.

[SpartanMom_2016]

I expect that the 177 rushing attempts (30 per game) will spike significantly on Saturday.  W&J has averaged 43 rushing attempts per game.  PLUS W&J has a powerful passing game so the defense can't sleep on that and focus solely on the run. 

[Pat Coleman]

Perhaps the designations ILB and OLB don't map to the right places.  I am sure it is a computerized process.

You have probably hit the nail on the head there. That makes a lot of sense.

However, still surprising to see two different sets of stats.

[SaintsFAN]

Perhaps the designations ILB and OLB don't map to the right places.  I am sure it is a computerized process.

You have probably hit the nail on the head there. That makes a lot of sense.

However, still surprising to see two different sets of stats.

Not Mark Carlisle-esqu???

[SpartanMom_2016]

Perhaps the designations ILB and OLB don't map to the right places.  I am sure it is a computerized process.

You have probably hit the nail on the head there. That makes a lot of sense.

However, still surprising to see two different sets of stats.

It's not two different sets of stats.  I think that there are just pieces missing.  Every player who is on the PAC site has the same stats as the CWRU site.  There are some players missing from the PAC stats.  I'm almost certain it is some sort of mapping issue.

[E.115]

Well, now that's over with, so let's talk a little bit about the Case Western-W&J game, which will tell us if we can expect anything interesting coming down the stretch.  Technically, Case is not eliminated from the league-title picture with a loss; they could upset Thomas More and create a three-way tie atop the league standings - but it's pretty hard to imagine Case beating TMC if they do not beat W & J.  And there's an interesting trickle-down here, too.  W& J needs the win to finish 9-1 and have a fighting chance in Pool C.  Thomas More would probably prefer that W & J win because 9-1 W & J will stay in the regional rankings and give them a little boost in their playoff seeding, maybe getting them a second-round home game if things break right, instead of the chance to go play Mount Union.  If W & J loses, it's no slam-dunk that either 8-2 W & J and/or 8-2 Case Western will be in the RR's (for that matter, Westminster also has the chance to finish 8-2, but if W & J is not ranked, they won't be either).

Case Western is a program that does have some recent history of playoff appearances under the current head coach, but several years removed from that era.  It was starting to look like the product of one superior player, Dan Whalen, rather than a program-wide shift in overall talent at CWRU.  The first couple of post-Whalen teams still enjoyed some carry-over success, but even those were starting to fade, and no current player on the Case roster has had a better season than 6-4 since arriving in Cleveland.  Coming into this season, I don't think anyone would have projected last year's 3-7 squad to come storming out of the gates quite the way this year's Spartans have done.

Washington & Jefferson has been the preeminent PAC power for decades now, arguably sharing that mantle with Thomas More in the 2000's, but overall W & J has the most name-brand recognition of any PAC program nationally.  Their program history speaks for itself.

What does Case do well?  Play Rob Cuda at quarterback.  Cuda's numbers are bonkers.  The Case offense has hummed along all year with the sophomore QB pulling the trigger, and he can run pretty well, too.

What doesn't Case do well?  Run the football with players not named Rob Cuda.  Part of this is a product of sharing the load between several different RB's, but none stands out with an especially high yards-per-carry, either.  I don't know if they can hurt you with other guys.

What aren't we sure about?  The Case defense.  CWRU gave up 31 points to the only good team they've played this season, Chicago (5-1 themselves, with their only loss to another 5-1 team).  That's not really awful, as Chicago's offense has been fairly productive overall, but it makes it a little hard to tell whether Case's recent run of dominance on that side of the ball is due to mediocre opposition or their defense really turning a corner.  They did reasonably well against Bethany (don't laugh; despite Bethany's 2-5 record, their offense is pretty good).  I don't think the Case D is a complete shutdown unit, but it's not a total sieve, either.

Worth noting: whether Case wins this game or not, it looks like an exciting time to be a Spartan fan moving forward.  Cuda is a sophomore.  Four of the six guys with 10+ receptions will be back next season.  Five of the six top rushers will be back next season.  The offensive line starts one senior.  The defense is a bit more senior-heavy but the secondary is anchored by three guys who will be back next year.

OK.  Let's take a look at the Prez:

What does W & J do well?  Score points.  Coughlin and Ruffing are about as good as it gets at their positions at schools that don't wear Purple.  Coughlin does not boast quite the numerical insanity of Cuda but, having seen him play, he can ball.  The Prez have some really good receivers, too.

What doesn't W & J do well?  Stop the other team.  303 yards by Sam Benger (most of that in the first half, when it was still competitive).  42 points by Bethany (some garbage-time fourth-quarter, but the Bison had 21 on the board by halftime, too).  31 points by Westminster.  38 points by Goose Cohorn and the Saints (should be a band, by the way).  W & J's fabulous offense has kind of masked the fact that their defense is decidedly average.

What aren't we sure about?  If that defense is just kind of a product of big-scoring offense letting them fall asleep at the wheel once in a while.  Maybe they can produce a shutdown day if they need to.  Maybe the sorta one-dimensional nature of Case's "Cuda Does Everything" offense will be easier to stop than some of the other attacks they've faced this season.

As noted above, the stakes are reasonably high here for both sides.  It's CWRU's first chance to prove themselves against a name-brand, high-quality opponent.  It's W & J's chance to stay alive in Pool C and firmly establish that it's them + Thomas More, then everyone else playing for third.  I'm excited to see what happens.  All the ingredients are in place for a shootout.  Give me the Spartans in a barnburner.

ExTartanPlayer,

Much thanks for the in depth breakdown.   I'm guessing the x-factor for tomorrow's game will be can CWRU stop Ruffing this year.

[Pat Coleman]

Perhaps the designations ILB and OLB don't map to the right places.  I am sure it is a computerized process.

You have probably hit the nail on the head there. That makes a lot of sense.

However, still surprising to see two different sets of stats.

It's not two different sets of stats.  I think that there are just pieces missing.  Every player who is on the PAC site has the same stats as the CWRU site.  There are some players missing from the PAC stats.  I'm almost certain it is some sort of mapping issue.

There are indeed two different sets of tackle numbers for those players.

PAC site:
4A    Cody Calhoun     6    18    11    29
37    Aaron Weisberg     6    12    15    27
8     Gavin Sandidge     5    13    12    25
92    Dayton Snyder     6    13    12    25
6     Andrew Banathy     6    13    9    22

Case site:
4A   Cody Calhoun   So   SS   6   20   12   32
37   Aaron Weisberg   Sr   ILB   6   13   15   28
8   Gavin Sandidge   Sr   ILB   5   13   12   25
92   Dayton Snyder   Sr   DE   6   13   12   25
6   Andrew Banathy   So   ILB   6   14   10   24

[Ralph Turner]

Perhaps the designations ILB and OLB don't map to the right places.  I am sure it is a computerized process.

You have probably hit the nail on the head there. That makes a lot of sense.

However, still surprising to see two different sets of stats.

It's not two different sets of stats.  I think that there are just pieces missing.  Every player who is on the PAC site has the same stats as the CWRU site.  There are some players missing from the PAC stats.  I'm almost certain it is some sort of mapping issue.

There are indeed two different sets of tackle numbers for those players.

PAC site:
4A    Cody Calhoun     6    18    11    29
37    Aaron Weisberg     6    12    15    27
8     Gavin Sandidge     5    13    12    25
92    Dayton Snyder     6    13    12    25
6     Andrew Banathy     6    13    9    22

Case site:
4A   Cody Calhoun   So   SS   6   20   12   32
37   Aaron Weisberg   Sr   ILB   6   13   15   28
8   Gavin Sandidge   Sr   ILB   5   13   12   25
92   Dayton Snyder   Sr   DE   6   13   12   25
6   Andrew Banathy   So   ILB   6   14   10   24

They count differently in Cleveland...

[jam40jeff]

There are indeed two different sets of tackle numbers for those players.

PAC site:
4A    Cody Calhoun     6    18    11    29
37    Aaron Weisberg     6    12    15    27
8     Gavin Sandidge     5    13    12    25
92    Dayton Snyder     6    13    12    25
6     Andrew Banathy     6    13    9    22

Case site:
4A   Cody Calhoun   So   SS   6   20   12   32
37   Aaron Weisberg   Sr   ILB   6   13   15   28
8   Gavin Sandidge   Sr   ILB   5   13   12   25
92   Dayton Snyder   Sr   DE   6   13   12   25
6   Andrew Banathy   So   ILB   6   14   10   24

They count differently in Cleveland...

Or the PAC doesn't count correctly...

I chose one sample player (Cody Calhoun) and went through the defensive statistics in the box scores on this site for all 6 Case games and added up his tackles.  It came out to 20 solo, 12 ast, 32 total.

EDIT: To see if this was a fluke, I chose a second player (Aaron Weisberg) and went through the same process.  His tackles came out to 13 solo, 15 ast, 28 total, also matching Case's website.  I'm not sure how, but it seems as if the PAC is underreporting Case's tackles.

[Pat Coleman]

Did you count from box scores on the PAC website?

I sent an email to Case's SID earlier this afternoon -- it may be that the PAC has since corrected.

[jam40jeff]

Did you count from box scores on the PAC website?

I sent an email to Case's SID earlier this afternoon -- it may be that the PAC has since corrected.

The box scores on the PAC website do add up to the totals shown on the PAC website.  The box scores on D3Football match those on Case's website.