FB: Presidents' Athletic Conference

[SpartanMom_2016]

As I said, we deserve to be in the Top 25, AND WE ARE!!!

I mean, I kinda hate to say "I told ya so," but let's be frank.

I really did tell ya so!!!





GO SPARTANS!!!

"Deserve" is a really strong word for it.  The W&J result happened to be the same week as some big changes at the bottom of the poll.  I'm pulling for Sparty this weekend, there are some Thomas More haters still out there and I'm glad they get third shot at a ranked team in 2015.

If you look at the new teams at the bottom of the rankings you will see that only Case and Delaware Valley actually beat a ranked team to get into the rankings.  I would say they deserve it as much as any other team with a good record that beats a ranked opponent.

W&L beat a ranked team earlier in the year (Guilford) and despite being undefeated didn't get in until the most recent poll. Polls are funny that way. Just beating a ranked team doesn't mean you take their place, though it certainly helps put you on the radar. Great win for Case. Brutal couple weeks with Wash U and TMC upcoming.

Well W&L deserved to be ranked also.  One thing that is bad about the D3 ranking system is that there seem to be teams that are ranked in the current year based on the strength of either their conference or of their past teams. 

[ADL70]

What my post makes clear is that I don't think it favors either.

[jknezek]

Been trying to figure this out myself.  There are only about five real clear slam-dunk picks in the South RR's (UMHB, TMC, JHU, HSU, and W & L).  Past that there are a lot of 1-loss and 2-loss teams that are tough to distinguish - Texas Lutheran, Berry, Hendrix, Chicago, Maryville, Huntingdon, Hampden-Sydney, Guilford; any of them could take some of those last few spots but none are obvious picks.  I think CWRU should be in the RR's next week, maybe even as high as #6 or 7, but whether they stay there will be dictated by their performance against TMC.

This is the big question. If it's me I'm going with the teams in bold for regional rankings based on the criteria. Not based on who I have in my SRFP or who I think the best teams are. The RRO numbers assume I'm right. Lets go with where we are right now. First the easy part, as winning still counts.

UMHB SOS of 183. 0-0 RRO. (maybe TLU) I don't care about SOS, common sense has to play some role.
JHU   SOS of 35 right now. 1-0 RRO (beat Moravian)
H-SU SOS of 101 right now. 0-0 RRO (maybe TLU)
W&L SOS of 119 right now. 0-0 RRO (maybe Guilford, H-SC)
TMC  SOS of 167 right now. 0-0 RRO (Maybe W&J)

TMC just can't trump the others on their currently bad SOS and, the way I figure it, 0-0 RRO. Again, per the criteria, not my thoughts on where they actually belong.


6-1
Maryville SOS 131 RRO 1-0 (Beat Berry, lost to NCWC)
Berry SOS 11 RRO 2-1 (lost to M'Ville, beat Chicago and Hendrix)
Moravian SOS 102 (lost to JHU) 0-1 RRO
CWRU SOS 138 RRO 0-1 (lost to Chicago, beat W&J)
Guilford SOS 174 RRO 0-1 (lost to W&L)
Trinity SOS 202 RRO 0-1 (lost to H-SU)
Huntingdon SOS 205 (lost to B-SC)

Berry gets the obvious nod for SOS and RRO. They might even jump TMC/W&L in the rankings, but I hesitate to do that right now. Why Chicago and Hendrix for RRO? See below. Maryville jumps Moravian on the RRO win and not much difference in SOS. Then Maryville has to jump Berry on the H2H. Moravian gets the nod for the top half SOS and they have a result versus an RRO, even if it's not a win. CWRU can't jump M'Ville/Moravian if W&J doesn't get ranked. SOS and RRO is not in their favor. Guilford has a putrid SOS and I'm drawing the line. They aren't even close to the top half of the division for SOS, yet, so they fail the eye test despite the RRO as does everyone after them with no SOS or RRO.


5-2
Hendrix SOS 20 RRO 1-1 (lost to Berry, Austin. Beat Chicago)
Chicago SOS 13 RRO 1-2 (lost to Berry, Hendrix. Beat CWRU)
H-SC SOS 46 RRO 0-2 (lost to Wabash, W&L)
Washington and Jefferson SOS 61 RRO 0-2 (lost to TMC, CWRU)
TLU SOS 76 RRO 0-2 (lost H-SU, UMHB)

Why do the 5-2 teams jump the remaining 6-1 teams? Because the SOS is a gimme and if that is true, then they both have RRO results and wins. That is too important to pass up. I'll take winning percentage to a point, but their SOS is so high in the division, with the results, it's hard to pass them up per the criteria. In fact I think they could both jump Moravian in the rankings. Why does Hendrix jump Chicago? H2H. So why not H-SC over Moravian as well? Because I've got to draw the line somewhere and they have no wins versus an RRO, just a pair of losses. Losing 2 RRO games is, in theory per the criteria, better than losing 1 RRO game, but I'm not willing to let that jump winning percentage without an SOS inside the 32 team tournament size.

Now obviously if I'm wrong on who is ranked, then the RROs change and therefore the rankings change. But using a combination of SOS and RROs this is who I think the committee will go with right now. Not necessarily the best teams, but the criteria. And not factoring in a single thing that could happen in the future.

[wally_wabash]

What my post makes clear is that I don't think it favors either.

It definitely does favor Chicago.  The head to head result is the purest piece of criteria we have.  Chicago's second loss might (and I do mean might, not does) let CWRU off the hook here with respect to that loss to Chicago, but I think any second loss by CWRU absolutely puts them behind Chicago (if Chicago holds serve) mostly because of that head to head result.  We don't get to take away imaginary points based on where the game was played.  Pollsters can do that sort of creative math, but I think in the regional rankings the results stand as is.

What's more is that that loss to Chicago creates some common opponent problems for CWRU, specifically with Berry and Hendrix.  The dominoes there really hurt CWRU as far as regional rankings go...IF CWRU picks up a second loss.

[E.115]

Case Western Reserve's remaining schedule is no slouch.

Washington University 5-2 (H)
Thomas More 7-0 (H)
Carnegie Mellon 4-3 (A) -- rivalry game "Academic Bowl"

1) It's imperative the Spartans continue their momentum going against Wash U of St. Louis, who comes into Cleveland with a Top 10 passing offense in the nation http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/d3 .  CWRU gets no break to look ahead to the following week.  I'm actually thinking Wash U will defeat U Chicago this year.

2) What everyone is talking about -- the looming TM vs CWRU match up in Cleveland.

3) And finally, the rivalry game against CM is away at Pittsburgh this year. 

Each game brings it's own set of challenges.  There's no cruise control.  CWRU needs to continue to play like a Top 25 team for the remainder of the season.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Case Western Reserve's remaining schedule is no slouch.

Washington University 5-2 (H)
Thomas More 7-0 (H)
Carnegie Mellon 4-3 (A) -- rivalry game "Academic Bowl"

Agreed.  It's an interesting closing slate here.  One thing that is a little fascinating about this - it's three competitive opponents, but the only game that will determine their playoff fate (are they in our out?) is the Thomas More game.  Regardless of what happens against WashU, if they  beat TMC, they could actually lose to Carnegie Mellon the following week and still win the league (1-loss and h2h tiebreaker over TMC).

With that said, two more things:

1) Beating Thomas More would get them into the playoffs, but a loss in either of the UAA games would be crippling from a seeding standpoint.  9-1 Case has at least a chance to host a first-round game.  8-2 Case with losses to Chicago and WashU/CMU is getting sent somewhere nasty.  So even though Thomas More is the only game that affects their in/out status, the others very much do matter if they want to win a playoff game.

2) Throwing that stuff out...I think it's important to play all three like they're playoff games.  The current staff and players probably still are invested enough in the UAA matchups (and the CMU, CWRU, and WashU head men are all still the same guys as when I played...and in some cases long before that) to feel like those are big games, playoff picture or not.

Anyways, this is going to be fun.  Several really good matchups on deck.  I'm also looking forward to the Tartans' closing slate...as long as they stay focused they will beat Thiel to reach 5-3, and then they'll have tough games with Chicago and CWRU to try and secure their first winning season since 2012, and maybe even an ECAC game.

[WashJeff68]

W&J's at a philosophical cross-roads:  from a program standpoint, is it good enough to whack the repetitive doormats of the PAC, knock off most challengers and win several PAC titles every five years, then get shown the exit door early on in the D3 tournament.  If that's enough, if that's programmatically acceptable, so be it.

If it's not the level to which Pres. Haring-Smith, AD McGuinness and HC Sirrianni aspire, some hard facts have to be faced.
And from MY seat, the OFFENSIVE APPROACH has to be looked at first.

Bob,

It's good to see you posting here again. I always appreciate your comments. You've been around W&J football for a long time and much closer than I, but this is my perspective and only that.

I've been an active alum since graduation, and served the College in several volunteer capacities over the years, including the John Luckhardt era (1982-1998) which represent the highlight of W&J football since the 1920s. Why was W&J able to achieve such success? In addition to John's obvious talents I think he had a couple of things going for him. First, he had strong support from alumni, including college trustees. Second, when the AD retired in 1987 John became AD in addition to FB coach giving him control of the department budget. Third, he was able to work collaboratively with the admissions and financial aid people. Fourth, the President pretty much let John run his show. I'm not suggesting that anything John did was inappropriate, just that he was a very charismatic persuasive person who drew people to him and was both very successful and highly regarded by the college community.

Then came 1998. The president retired and a new president was appointed. He had his own agenda and before long most of the senior administrators had been replaced (e.g: AD, Admissions, Financial Aid) and John was at Cal of PA. John Banazak became coach until the President fired him. Mike Sirianni was appointed head coach in 2003 and W&J was ranked in the final D3 poll from 2003-2008. Since then they have been ranked once in the final poll (last year).

So, what does it take to sustain the kind of performance W&J had under John? According to the D3 final polls since 2003 there have been four teams that stand above the pack - Mount Union, UW-W, Linfield, and Mary Hardin Baylor.

Let's look at Mount Union - which has been in the final top four each of the past 12 years  .Larry Kehres has been AD since 1985 and was Head Coach for 27 years. His son is current head coach. I went to the MU/W&J game last year and was very impressed with the facilities and fan support they have (of course, there isn't much else to do in  Alliance). According to their web site they have 18 coaches. They have the infrastructure in place and athletes that are certainly faster and more athletic than most. They have 21 varsity sports and 2,000 students. Of course, it all boils down to recruiting and coaching, and Larry Kehres proved he could do both with the best of them over an extended time. We'll see if it passes on to the next generation.

Let's look at MHB which has been in the final top four 5 years. Their coach has been in place since MHB started football in 1988. Four years later they were in the DIII playoffs. They list 17 coaches on their web site. The coach's son is his offensive co-coordinator. The AD has been on the athletic staff for over 15 years. They have 12 varsity sports and 2,800 students.

Now let's look at W&J. Bill Duckett retired lat year after 8 years as AD and over 30 years at W&J. Mike has been head coach since 2003 after serving as OC. They list 10 coaches on their web site. The football facilities are first rate. There are 1,400 students ant 24 varsity sports with roughly 40% of the student body playing a varsity sport (call it 30%+ excluding football). There is a capital campaign underway which is targeting adding to endowment and capital improvements, particularly to athletic facilities (mostly non-football). 

Mike seems to be an effective recruiter. I take your observation about his coaching strategy since you've seen them play much more than I have and I don't pretend to be a football "expert" by any means. Might be interesting to hear what XTP has to say.

I know Mike is committed to bringing a national championship to W&J and perhaps the stars will align one year and it will happen. But I think they want to spend their money across the board to make more sports competitive since that is where the interests of so many students (and potential students) lie.

Jeff in Tennessee

Edit: Fixed quote formatting/pc

[GillCJ1]

WashJeff68 - Just wanted to make a quick correction.  UMHB started football in 1998, not 1988 (and yes, Pete Fredenburg has been the only head coach in program history).  I'm thinking this was merely a typo on your part, but just wanted to get that out there.

Very interesting background info on W&J.  I always enjoy learning about other programs.  Good luck to the Presidents going forward.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Just started listening to ATN and spit out my coffee at the mention of breaking down the tackle total of the Case Western linebackers.  Well done, Pat.

[wally_wabash]

Just started listening to ATN and spit out my coffee at the mention of breaking down the tackle total of the Case Western linebackers.  Well done, Pat.

Definitely laughed out loud at the office today when I heard that. 

[SaintsFAN]

Just started listening to ATN and spit out my coffee at the mention of breaking down the tackle total of the Case Western linebackers.  Well done, Pat.

Definitely laughed out loud at the office today when I heard that.

Thirded (is that a word?) - I was on a flight when I laughed out loud about it.  I'm sure the Air Marshall was wondering what my deal was.  Side note:  I really have to stop or try to stop LOL'ing on planes.  I did it last week also. 

[SaintsFAN]

W&J's at a philosophical cross-roads:  from a program standpoint, is it good enough to whack the repetitive doormats of the PAC, knock off most challengers and win several PAC titles every five years, then get shown the exit door early on in the D3 tournament.  If that's enough, if that's programmatically acceptable, so be it.

If it's not the level to which Pres. Haring-Smith, AD McGuinness and HC Sirrianni aspire, some hard facts have to be faced.
And from MY seat, the OFFENSIVE APPROACH has to be looked at first.

Bob,

It's good to see you posting here again. I always appreciate your comments. You've been around W&J football for a long time and much closer than I, but this is my perspective and only that.

I've been an active alum since graduation, and served the College in several volunteer capacities over the years, including the John Luckhardt era (1982-1998) which represent the highlight of W&J football since the 1920s. Why was W&J able to achieve such success? In addition to John's obvious talents I think he had a couple of things going for him. First, he had strong support from alumni, including college trustees. Second, when the AD retired in 1987 John became AD in addition to FB coach giving him control of the department budget. Third, he was able to work collaboratively with the admissions and financial aid people. Fourth, the President pretty much let John run his show. I'm not suggesting that anything John did was inappropriate, just that he was a very charismatic persuasive person who drew people to him and was both very successful and highly regarded by the college community.

Then came 1998. The president retired and a new president was appointed. He had his own agenda and before long most of the senior administrators had been replaced (e.g: AD, Admissions, Financial Aid) and John was at Cal of PA. John Banazak became coach until the President fired him. Mike Sirianni was appointed head coach in 2003 and W&J was ranked in the final D3 poll from 2003-2008. Since then they have been ranked once in the final poll (last year).

So, what does it take to sustain the kind of performance W&J had under John? According to the D3 final polls since 2003 there have been four teams that stand above the pack - Mount Union, UW-W, Linfield, and Mary Hardin Baylor.

Let's look at Mount Union - which has been in the final top four each of the past 12 years  .Larry Kehres has been AD since 1985 and was Head Coach for 27 years. His son is current head coach. I went to the MU/W&J game last year and was very impressed with the facilities and fan support they have (of course, there isn't much else to do in  Alliance). According to their web site they have 18 coaches. They have the infrastructure in place and athletes that are certainly faster and more athletic than most. They have 21 varsity sports and 2,000 students. Of course, it all boils down to recruiting and coaching, and Larry Kehres proved he could do both with the best of them over an extended time. We'll see if it passes on to the next generation.

Let's look at MHB which has been in the final top four 5 years. Their coach has been in place since MHB started football in 1988. Four years later they were in the DIII playoffs. They list 17 coaches on their web site. The coach's son is his offensive co-coordinator. The AD has been on the athletic staff for over 15 years. They have 12 varsity sports and 2,800 students.

Now let's look at W&J. Bill Duckett retired lat year after 8 years as AD and over 30 years at W&J. Mike has been head coach since 2003 after serving as OC. They list 10 coaches on their web site. The football facilities are first rate. There are 1,400 students ant 24 varsity sports with roughly 40% of the student body playing a varsity sport (call it 30%+ excluding football). There is a capital campaign underway which is targeting adding to endowment and capital improvements, particularly to athletic facilities (mostly non-football). 

Mike seems to be an effective recruiter. I take your observation about his coaching strategy since you've seen them play much more than I have and I don't pretend to be a football "expert" by any means. Might be interesting to hear what XTP has to say.

I know Mike is committed to bringing a national championship to W&J and perhaps the stars will align one year and it will happen. But I think they want to spend their money across the board to make more sports competitive since that is where the interests of so many students (and potential students) lie.

Jeff in Tennessee

Edit: Fixed quote formatting/pc

Quick:  tell me who the winningest program by percentage is.  That is until MHB plays enough games to become eligible for the list.  That team is in the PAC and has raised W&J's level of play, IMO.  They are better for Thomas More being in the PAC.  These W&J teams play better teams in the regular season.  I also feel like Mr Gregg is onto something.  Their D was on the field way too much at TMC and that D was gassed in the late 3rd and 4th Q's and couldn't get off the field in the 4th, at all.

Question:  how are you measuring success from 1982-1998?  I saw the 2nd place finishes in 1992 and 1994 which compares favorably with UMHB but there's nothing you can take from W&J's history that can be used to compare it to Mount Union (nobody can, no shame there) or Whitewater.  Their runs are unfathomable and outside of each other they have no peers. 

[SaintsFAN]

Just made my travel arrangements for next weekend:  I want to see the team everyone thinks is going to take TMC's lunch.  There are 8 of us old school alums headed up.  But the other 7 are driving while I get into Cleveland before they do.  Does anyone know if Uber is viable from the airport or will a cab be the best bet?  I'm staying at the DTree right next to campus (no fire alarm shenanigans, please). 

ExTP - you sure you can't mske it??  It's just a wedding..you can catch their 2nd marriages 😀

[Pat Coleman]

Just started listening to ATN and spit out my coffee at the mention of breaking down the tackle total of the Case Western linebackers.  Well done, Pat.

Definitely laughed out loud at the office today when I heard that.

Thirded (is that a word?) - I was on a flight when I laughed out loud about it.  I'm sure the Air Marshall was wondering what my deal was.  Side note:  I really have to stop or try to stop LOL'ing on planes.  I did it last week also.

Glad you guys enjoyed that. I knew there was a very limited audience for that joke.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Just made my travel arrangements for next weekend:  I want to see the team everyone thinks is going to take TMC's lunch.  There are 8 of us old school alums headed up.  But the other 7 are driving while I get into Cleveland before they do.  Does anyone know if Uber is viable from the airport or will a cab be the best bet?  I'm staying at the DTree right next to campus (no fire alarm shenanigans, please). 

ExTP - you sure you can't mske it?? It's just a wedding..you can catch their 2nd marriages 😀

LOL.  I think I have to go to this one to make sure that I don't end up losing my first shot at marriage (next year, wedding date 4 days before I turn 30 - rake that, all you skeptics who said I'd never be married in my 20's!).  My dear fiancee has already gone (voluntarily!) to an away Carnegie Mellon game this season.  Explaining a trip to a road game that doesn't even involve my alma mater would be a lot harder...plus, my high school is currently playing very well, and I might need to save those "Honey, so I'm thinking..." points for a trip to the PA state semifinals and/or state finals in December.  And I'm not ruling out a road trip to Mount Union if we get an enticing matchup in the D3 quarters or semifinals...

I will be following the CWRU/TMC result with interest (and as we've said, CWRU has a fascinating in-between game here with a good WashU team, so let's give the Spartans a chance to play that one first).  Today, gun to my head, I would make TMC the favorite by....let's call it a 10.5-point spread to open the betting.  Line seems a bit high maybe, but CWRU just squeaked past W & J while TMC had a little easier time.