FB: Presidents' Athletic Conference

[SaintsFAN]

RE:  87 new recruits-How does a coaching staff evaluate that many new players?

There are some obvious advantages to having large numbers but I would imagine that it also has its disadvantages.  How do you develop young players when there are so many of them?

They are down to 78 newcomers left on the roster.  They develop these kids and keep them interested by having 16 Assistant Coaches on staff (a few are retired ex-HS Head Coaches) and a full schedule JV Program. 

The only disadvantage I can think of is having to buy more equipment but thats more than offset when you have 150+ paying tuition. 

[ADL70]

PAC tiebreaker

Tiebreaker for NCAA automatic qualifier (AQ): 1) Head-to-head competition, 2) Record against the highest-ranked team in the conference not involved in the tie. In the case of a three-way tie, it would be the fourth team. In case of a four-way tie, it would be the fifth-team, etc. If the records against that team are the same, it goes to the next highest team not involved in the tie, etc., 3) strength of conference wins (conference winning percentage of teams you beat in 8 PAC games, 4) Overall record, 5) Record vs. common non-league opponent(s). Note: if one team is eliminated, the tiebreaker begins again at step #1. All teams in a 3 or more team tie must have played each other for the head-to-head tiebreaker to be applicable.

[ADL70]

A couple season previews ... Also there are plenty of the PAC interviews on YouTube as well:

Thomas More Team to Beat in PAC
http://www.observer-reporter.com/20160803/thomas_more_team_to_beat_in_pac

Thomas More picked 1st in Presidents' Athletic Conference preseason poll; W&J 2nd
http://triblive.com/mobile/10895312-96/poll-conference-preseason

94 players reported

[ADL70]

Here's how my model projects the conference standings (without returning starter adjustments, yet):

Team	Overall W-L	Conf W-L	Pool A Probability
Thomas More	8.9-1.1	7.1-0.9	56.8%
Wash & Jeff	7.7-2.3	6.7-2.3	14.2%
Case	7.7-2.3	6.3-1.7	12.2%
Carnegie Mellon	6.6-3.4	5.2-2.8	10.7%
Westminster	6.4-3.6	5.5-3.5	4.2%
Bethany	4.6-5.4	4.2-4.8	1.2%
Waynesburg	4.2-5.8	3.7-5.3	0.2%
St. Vincent	4.2-5.8	3.5-5.5	0.3%
Geneva	3.4-6.6	3.0-6.0	0.1%
Thiel	2.2-7.8	1.4-7.6	0.0%
Grove City	1.5-8.5	1.4-7.6	0.0%

Source: https://loghan.shinyapps.io/Season_Projections/

There's a couple flips in there from where the conference preseason poll has everything, but lines up pretty nicely. In the hopes of building a better model though, I would need more information about what the PAC considers "conference games," because not every team plays the same number of conference opponents, and from looking at the standings last year, it appears that some of the conference opponents are non-conference games. Wally Wabash also brought up the point a few days ago, what happens if there's two undefeated teams in conference? Who gets the Pool A bid? I had to make some assumptions that probably skewed the results more in favor of Thomas More than they will be in reality. So take my projections for the PAC with a few more grains of salt than you would for a different conference, especially the Pool A projections.

For teams with 9 conference opponents, the first game with a conference opponent is not counted as a conference game.

FWIW Massey projects CWRU 9-1, with close loss to Westminster and close games with Wash U, Bethany, and CMU.

[HansenRatings]

FWIW Massey projects CWRU 9-1, with close loss to Westminster and close games with Wash U, Bethany, and CMU.

Careful there. They're favored in 9 games, same as my system. To get their projected win shares, you should add their win probabilities for each game, which would come up to 7.77-2.23, nearly identical to what my system pegs them at.

[DagarmanSpartan]

I enjoyed this year's edition of Kickoff.  Good write-up on CWRU.  This is going to be an exciting season!

But I have to keep reminding myself that the goal is to go 1-0 each week.  Let's hope that we don't fall flat against the Chicago Maroons!

[ADL70]

Game notes up on Chicago's site. Although I guess this is technically a UAA game I'll post this here since it's where all the CWRU traffic has been.

http://static.psbin.com/3/w/jab0atbwtajgz2/fb-case-notes-2016.pdf

Reading between the lines, it looks like projected starters Burke, Phan, DiFrancesco, Medved, and Cannon are out to injury.  Transfers Cameron Brown (DE) and John McKelvey (FS) are newcomers in the starting lineup. Newcomers with the twos are: Kevin Chrissis (CB), Patrick Crossey (SS), Thomas Strayer (RT), Adam Zybko (TE), and Justin Friedsam (WR).

[Post game edit] Burke, Phan, and Cannon all played.  Medved was padded up but didn't play.  He had a brace on right knee.

Listed as starting RB is Myles Anthony (5'4) and FB Aaron Aguilar (5'6).  Chicago might want to be on the lookout for this play:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZzIgZ1yrKk

Noted some discrepancies between player's weights on the two deep and the numerical roster.

[E.115]

Thanks for posting.

Ouch, that's a lot of early injuries.

[E.115]

University of Chicago visiting tomorrow.

Unfinished Business
Football hoping for playoff run following last year's turnaround
Eddie Kerekes, Sports Editor • September 2, 2016

http://observer.case.edu/unfinished-business/

[ADL70]

Uhh, not four wins in 2014, only three.

[E.115]

Uhh, not four wins in 2014, only three.

I think they meant their predictions record??  If so, not very scientific then from a school who used to be called the Case Scientists.

[mustang]

Nice start by Case. Put points on the board and the defense pitched a shutout in the 2nd half. My concern would be the number of times Cuda ran the ball, you certainly don't want to see him get hurt. My only beef would be that the kickoffs need to go deeper and the kickoff team needs to cover better.

The broadcast quality has improved, I hooked up my laptop to the tv and the quality didn't suffer too much. Also with the exception of a glitch right before halftime, didn't have the buffering issues I have had in the past.

[ADL70]

Freshman Kolderup took over after the first three short ones and averaged 60.8 with one touchback. Coverage of his kicks was better.

[E.115]

Very impressive, borderline statement win today against U Chicago today.  Most shocking was how little Cuda had to pass to keep the offense moving. 

CWRU Football Shines in 45-17 Season-Opening Win over Chicago

CWRU Football Shines in 45-17 Season-Opening Win over Chicago - Case Western Reserve

Top highlight -- 85-yard punt return from Phan:  https://youtu.be/rc233rs57Zk

[DagarmanSpartan]

Good start to the season.

Let's hope that we improve each game.