FB: Presidents' Athletic Conference

[DagarmanSpartan]

CWRU is suffering no drop in enrollment or applications.

We'll be fine.

[WashJeff68]

This is not about CWRU, or W&J for that matter. How do you think this might impact the conference?

[unionpalooza]

We know that the recent pandemic has impacted colleges across the spectrum, and a number have closed at least partially as a result and there are (perhaps many?) more to come as the Baby Boom ends. I have been concerned that there are several schools in the PAC that are seeing declining enrollments with limited resources that may not be able to survive long term. Yes, I was an English major, and my Excell skills have declined, but I still have some of my "executive function."   So here is a comparison of some key metrics of the current members of the PAC:


School   Net Assets 2020**   Students   Assets per Student
Grove City        $341,483,793 1366    $249,988
Allegheny             $315,834,647    1353       $233,433
CMU                  $3,591,866,       16002    $224,464
W&J                    $247,293,225     1157    $215344
Case                  $2,349,400,366    12201    $192,558
St Vincent            $249,224,266   1536    $162,255
Westminster    $167,834,360    1211    $138,592
Waynesburg         $85,753,336    1366    $62,777
Geneva             $70,555,178    1232    $57,269
Bethany             $35,379,781    623    $56,789
Chatham            $131,784,926    2387    $55,209
Thiel                   $46,212,536    907    $50,951
Franciscan          $179,111,641    3656    $48,991    
               
** From 2020 Form 990 filed with IRS   

Those From Westminster up look like they can weather the storm, but I worry about the rest. Of course, there are lots of other things that could come into play.

So. CWRU guys, what do you think?

Based on a lot of reading about the coming implosion of small private colleges, I think your cutoff line sounds about exactly right.  Odds that any of the bottom six are around in ten years is slim to none.

This list was also fascinating to me because of the huge size gap between CMU and CWRU and the rest of the schools.  I understand those numbers include grad students, but even so, two of these things do not look like the others.

[Pat Coleman]

None of the bottom six will be around in 10 years? That's a big stretch. Maybe half of that group doesn't make it.

[unionpalooza]

None of the bottom six will be around in 10 years? That's a big stretch. Maybe half of that group doesn't make it.

I think you underestimate the coming cataclysm.  I didn't research them individually, so sure, a few those may be in better shape than average.  (A quick google reveals Thiel in particular seems pretty solid.)  But almost all the schools in this cohort face the same challenges - diminishing applicant pools, the end of COVID slush funds, net operating deficits, overreliance on debt amid rising rates, freezing hiring and/or cutting programs, and so on. Most are effectively paying for students, discounting net tuition more each year, and you can only do that for so long.

[Pat Coleman]

Yes, but the ones which can survive longer will absorb the students from the ones which go first, like I suspect Cabrini students will bolster Rosemont and others.

I agree there is a consolidation/disruption in progress. I just don't see it taking all of those six in the next 10 years.

[DagarmanSpartan]

Union,

I can't speak to any of the other schools, but rest assured that CWRU is thriving and in no danger to closure or distress.

[Pat Coleman]

I don't think anyone said otherwise, DagarmanSpartan.

[DagarmanSpartan]

Regarding the lower six schools..........have any of them announced anything to the effect that they are in distress?

I'm guessing that those schools have always been less financially resourced than the others.

That has never brought about their demise.

Why would they be any closer to this now?

[Pat Coleman]

Typically schools don't make those kinds of announcements.

What's changing now is that the college-age demographic is shrinking drastically starting in the next year or two.

[mikefln]

We know that the recent pandemic has impacted colleges across the spectrum, and a number have closed at least partially as a result and there are (perhaps many?) more to come as the Baby Boom ends. I have been concerned that there are several schools in the PAC that are seeing declining enrollments with limited resources that may not be able to survive long term. Yes, I was an English major, and my Excell skills have declined, but I still have some of my "executive function."   So here is a comparison of some key metrics of the current members of the PAC:


School   Net Assets 2020**   Students   Assets per Student
Grove City        $341,483,793 1366    $249,988
Allegheny             $315,834,647    1353       $233,433
CMU                  $3,591,866,       16002    $224,464
W&J                    $247,293,225     1157    $215344
Case                  $2,349,400,366    12201    $192,558
St Vincent            $249,224,266   1536    $162,255
Westminster    $167,834,360    1211    $138,592
Waynesburg         $85,753,336    1366    $62,777
Geneva             $70,555,178    1232    $57,269
Bethany             $35,379,781    623    $56,789
Chatham            $131,784,926    2387    $55,209
Thiel                   $46,212,536    907    $50,951
Franciscan          $179,111,641    3656    $48,991    
               
** From 2020 Form 990 filed with IRS   

Those From Westminster up look like they can weather the storm, but I worry about the rest. Of course, there are lots of other things that could come into play.

So. CWRU guys, what do you think?

Jeff,

Great work. I hope you don't mind, but I added 2023/24 full year tuition and w/ room and board and Graduation Rate.  While not football related, I would like to state some observations and do a little analysis if you guys don't mind.


School      Net Assets 2020**   Students      Assets per Student   Tuition    w/ Room & Board  Graduation Rate -Ntln average is 49%
Grove City  $341,483,793             1366             $249,988         $20,890   $32,660                     84%
Allegheny    $315,834,647             1353             $233,433         $54,300   $71,125                     67%
CMU          $3,591,866,000          16002             $224,464         $62,260   $82,697                     79%
W&J               $247,293,225     1157             $215,344         $29,605*   $43,615                     71%
Case      $2,349,400,366       12201             $192,558         $32,050   **                             67%
St Vincent      $249,224,266     1536             $162,255         $38,814   $53,437                     67%
Westminster   $167,834,360     1211             $138,592        $38,760   $51,140                     66%
Waynesburg      $85,753,336     1366               $62,777        $28,120   $40,220                     59%
Geneva           $70,555,178     1232               $57,269        $31,090   $43,330                     70%
Bethany           $35,379,781      623                       $56,789        $31,920   $47,752                     43%
Chatham          $131,784,926      2387               $55,209        $42,250   $58,561                     56%
Thiel            $46,212,536      907                       $50,951        $33,620   $48,150                     42%
Franciscan         $179,111,641     3656               $48,991        $30,620   $39,050                     63%

* W&J listed a full load as 3-4 courses.  All the other schools listed the rate for a full load to be 12-18 credits. 
** I could not find the room and board rate for Case.  Maybe I was not observant enough, but I could not find it.
*** Some schools spelled out the room and board rate, which I just copied down.  Other schools listed meal plans and housing options.  In those cases, I took the lowest cost meal plan and housing option for my total.

There are a few things I find interesting about this. 

1) The 2 research universities really are outliers among these schools.

2) I know it is rare for a student to pay sticker price but these tuitions at some of these schools are out of hand.

3) In line with point #2, I graduated from St. Vincent in 2002.  The sticker price is almost doubled what I paid back then.  I am going to use teaching and accounting as examples as I know them best.  In 2002 my accounting major friends came out of college and making around $45K in what was then the Big 6.  My 2 nephews just graduated in the past 2 years, and they are making around $60-65K to start at Big 4 firms. Teaching majors back then were making around $30-35K to start, my niece graduated last year and starting this year at $45K.  I know salaries do not keep up with inflation, but damn this is crazy to see.

4) Grove City is notorious for running their school different than most.  They take a much more conservative approach than 99% of schools out there in all aspects of their school.  As we can see, at least fiscally, that approach works.  They are at the top of the list for Assets per Student, and they have the lowest tuition and w/ room and board on the list and that is without taking any federal money unlike almost every other school in the country.  On top of financial situation being as strong as it is, they also top the list in the PAC with Graduation Rate.  I know some GCC grads, and they seem like squared away people.  I know every school has different mission statements and goals/objectives (ie the 2 research schools in this conference certainly have different missions' statements/goals/objectives then the rest), but maybe some of these schools need to look at GCC and copy them more.  They are obviously doing, a lot right while others not so much. 

5) I was shocked to see both Chatham and Franciscan with an enrollment that large.  Outside of the 2 research schools, these are the 2 biggest schools in the PAC based on enrollment.  Even if they lost 10% of their enrollment and the other schools gained 10% these 2 would still be the 2 largest outside of the research schools.

6) Looking at the data, to me Bethany and Theil are t in the worst shape.  They have the 2 lowest enrollment numbers with both being less than 1,000 students.  They both have Net Assets less than $100 Million and Assets per Student less than $60K.  To make matters worse, they both have graduation rates lower than the national average.  I hope they can turn it around, but they have a lot of work ahead of them.  Again, going back to point 4, they need to talk with GCC administration and see what they are doing right and start coping some of that.

7) Geneva is an interesting case study that needs to be looked at more.  Out of the 11 non research schools they are average in size, but they are 3rd in graduation rate.  At least athletically they have one of the best fan bases in the PAC.  Maybe I will look into alumni giving one day to see.  None the less with a 70% graduation rate and an average size student body, i do not expect them to be in trouble of closure as long as the administration is halfway competent.

[CNU85]

Nice analysis!

Also - don't forget that some Universities have other foundations that file Form 990. As an example, CNU has an Education Foundation and a Real estate Foundation, with net assets in each. I'm sure other universities would have similar foundations as well as others.

Cheers!

[Pat Coleman]

Grove City is also different in that it does not participate in federal student financial aid programs.

[jknezek]

Grove City pulls from a very defined population. I suspect if more schools followed Grove City, Hillsdale, and what Governor Desantis wants Florida's New College to be (and yes I know there are more, those just are the ones that have made the most news lately), they would start to run out of students willing to attend them all pretty quickly.

There is a spot in higher education for lots of different viewpoints, but college students are a population like anything else, and populations fall into bell curves. The wings of the curve are much smaller than the center. Positioning in the wings can be a successful strategy, but not when oversaturated.

The flip side, of course, is schools that succeed in those wings tend to have very dedicated and strong alumni support. Grove City has held to their course for a long time and been very successful doing it, but I'm not sure it's a strategy that is replicable on a wide scale.

[mikefln]

Grove City pulls from a very defined population. I suspect if more schools followed Grove City, Hillsdale, and what Governor Desantis wants Florida's New College to be (and yes I know there are more, those just are the ones that have made the most news lately), they would start to run out of students willing to attend them all pretty quickly.

There is a spot in higher education for lots of different viewpoints, but college students are a population like anything else, and populations fall into bell curves. The wings of the curve are much smaller than the center. Positioning in the wings can be a successful strategy, but not when oversaturated.

The flip side, of course, is schools that succeed in those wings tend to have very dedicated and strong alumni support. Grove City has held to their course for a long time and been very successful doing it, but I'm not sure it's a strategy that is replicable on a wide scale.

I hear what you are saying and agree, but I am not talking about who they market their product to, or anything they teach to create the bell curve you are talking about.  I am speaking strictly about how they run the business side.  As I mentioned and Pat C commented on, they do not take federal money including federal financial aid.  Yet they have the lowest tuition.  I do not know all their business practices, but I do know one of the ways they keep it low is by only giving scholarships if they have the physical money to cover it.  I listened to a radio program with the President of the GCC (this was roughly a decade ago, it may be a new president now I do not remember the name but the position he held and what he said.) 

He went into the reason why most colleges tuitions are through the roof but how GCC was able to stay low cost without government money.  The 2 main points he made that I would give the gist about is, government money is nice, but it comes with a lot of strings attached that are every bit as costly.  If those programs are not managed well, they end up costing more than the government money they receive.  Just knowing how businesses/bureaucracies od certain sizes (all college even the smallest of them are big enough) work, I would venture to say that most schools, if any, manage it well and that the cost exceeds the money received.

The other reason he stated is scholarships.  The great majority of scholarships schools award out, are not endowed.  To cover the expenses of the non-endowed scholarships, schools raise the price for all the students to pay for the few.  That led schools raising the cost even more as they had to then give aid to all the students, because the tuition rose too much. So, if school X tuition is $50,000 no one attending pays that, as they all receive some aid.  So, let's say the real cost averages to $35K.  According to the GCC Pres of that time I heard him talk, if they never played the shell game of awarding non-endowed scholarships, that school could have just kept tuition low for everyone and the set tuition would be said $28K.  Again, that is not a quote from him, just my interpretation and the gist of what he was saying. 

None the less, if you are Theil and Bethany, even others, I do not think it would hurt to ask GCC what their business plan is and see what from it you can use.  They are clearly doing better from a financial perspective regardless of what your/mine/other people's opinion of them are with regards to politics/marketing/viewpoint/etc .  Maybe Bethany and Theil want to keep the government money and deal with the strings attached.  If what the GCC president said is true about scholarships, maybe they can at least go with the only funding the endowed scholarship route.  1 thing is for sure, GCC has always be rated as one of the better run colleges that stays out of the red.  That is not the norm for most colleges.  It just is not. Again, I am a SVC grad, I have no ties to GCC but I can look at data and make fairly accurate assumptions on it.