FB: Presidents' Athletic Conference

[mikefln]

How is the CC stronger than the PAC?  They have their top 2 teams,then a couple so so teams, then the bottom.  W/o CMU & Case that is what the PAC is.  With those 2 schools you have more strong programs in the PAC.

The NCAC is exactly like the CC once JCU joins.  As of now they have Depaw.  Yes Wabash and Wittenburg used to be strong but they haven't been as of late.

[WRMUalum13]

How is the CC stronger than the PAC?  They have their top 2 teams,then a couple so so teams, then the bottom.  W/o CMU & Case that is what the PAC is.  With those 2 schools you have more strong programs in the PAC.

The NCAC is exactly like the CC once JCU joins.  As of now they have Depaw.  Yes Wabash and Wittenburg used to be strong but they haven't been as of late.

[ADL70]

How is the CC stronger than the PAC?  They have their top 2 teams,then a couple so so teams, then the bottom.  W/o CMU & Case that is what the PAC is.  With those 2 schools you have more strong programs in the PAC.

The NCAC is exactly like the CC once JCU joins.  As of now they have Depaw.  Yes Wabash and Wittenburg used to be strong but they haven't been as of late.

Centennial # 8 as ranked by d3football last year.

"8. Centennial Conference

            2022 ATN ranking: 6
            Non-conference record: 16-6
            Signature win: Johns Hopkins 27, Ithaca 17

The Centennial Conference has posted a strong record out of conference and like the E8, has turned their new non-conference partnership with the NJAC into a pile of wins. The Centennial is 11-4 vs. the NJAC with six games still to play. Johns Hopkins has looked great this season. Muhlenberg has returned to form. So why did the Centennial slide? Because Susquehanna moved out and moved on to the Landmark Conference. If we were to add Susquehanna to this group — and let's not forget Ursinus who just had a nine-game win streak snapped by Muhlenberg — this would be a top 5 conference."

I suggest adding CMU makes them a top 5 conference.

PAC was #12. If CMU had stayed, next year the conference would be 4 strong teams, 2 middling teams, and 6 awful teams. Centennial has 4 strong teams (8-3 or better), a middling one and two poorer teams. No conference games were blowouts like we saw in the PAC last year and last Saturday. With only 7 conference games CMU will be able to schedule quality non-conference opponents (hopefully continuing to play CWRU). 

[Pat Coleman]

The NCAC is exactly like the CC once JCU joins.  As of now they have Depaw.  Yes Wabash and Wittenburg used to be strong but they haven't been as of late.

I think this is a dated assessment of the Centennial.

[ExTartanPlayer]

I've been a pretty vocal "PAC is underrated!" voice and think the minimal OOC results from last year support that, but I don't think it's hard to make an argument that the Centennial offer better week-to-week competition and a few extra OOC dates that I suspect CMU really wants (I know some of this would have come back next year with the split into divisions, but long-term I think CMU will like an eight-team schedule with 7 league games and three non-league opportunities). I think they want to have the flexibility to play an RPI, an MIT, maybe a trip to the Midwest or West Coast every year or two. I do agree that it's nice for everyone in the league to be a 2-hour bus ride, but the Centennial will just make those 4-hour rides instead of 2 hours. They don't have to fly anywhere in the Centennial.

In the PAC - there are a few really good teams at the top (and I think those teams are maybe a *little* bit underrated nationally, though Grove City and CMU are indeed getting love in the top 25). But there's a huge cliff between the top teams and even the *middle* of the league (not just the bottom). I understand that there's usually a really big gap between the top and *bottom* of a league, but the only team that finished from Geneva (6) on down last year who was even competitive against *any* of the top four teams were Allegheny and Waynesburg a couple times. St Vincent didn't score a point against the top four, and they won three league games! Thiel managed one surprisingly competitive 14-0 loss to Case in the opener but I'm not gonna hang much on Thiel after seeing them give up 58 in a half to CMU on Saturday without crossing midfield. Most of the top-four vs bottom-six matchups were total washouts. So I think the issue is that right now the PAC offers you about three or four really good opponents but also a handful of total clunkers.

(Look, as a player I'd get up for playing *anybody* and even college blowouts usually aren't like high school blowouts, just stating the reality as I see it now as a fan)

Anyways - with only seven teams - the Centennial only has one similarly struggling "dog" right now (McDaniel) - even 2-8 Gettysburg played some reasonably competitive games last year against the league's middle and upper class residents. All of the Centennial's middle class residents last year (Dickinson, F&M, Ursinus) went 3-1 or 4-0 in non league play against reasonable-to-good competition from their relative peer leagues in a similar geographic footprint (NJAC, MAC, ). Dickinson beat Christopher Newport, who won the NJAC. I admit that it's hard to compare a 7 team league against an 11 team league, but the Centennial has two fully fledged playoff-caliber (quarterfinal-contending-level) teams and three more "solidly middle class or better" teams with only 1-2 dregs.

In looking at this, I think what's especially depressing about the PAC right now is how long it's been since any of those bottom six even fielded an "above average" team. In terms of recent success, Dickinson is probably the "third worst" team in the Centennial - and just last year they beat a semi-respectable conference's champion and playoff rep! Can you imagine anyone from Geneva on down in last year's PAC standings beating, say, DePauw or Ithaca? F&M has a decade running of winning records. Ursinus nearly does too. Right now for a top-25 team, there are like five "weeks off" in the PAC. There's at most two of those in the Centennial (yes 2/7 is a bit funky when compared to 6/11)

I don't want this to be totally dumping on the PAC. I've enjoyed CMU's time in the league and think it's been a legitimately fun league to be in and follow.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Just adding brief note

" They have their top 2 teams, then a couple so so teams, then the bottom."

I think that underrates the "so-so" teams in the middle of the Centennial. Dickinson beating the NJAC champ and the middle three (Dickinson, F&M, Ursinus) going a combined 11–1 in non league play against an assortment of NJAC and MAC teams (the only loss being Dickinson losing 38-27 vs 8-3 RPI). The PAC's zero nonconference play last year makes this an impossible hypothetical, but I'm not picking anyone from the middle of the PAC on down to beat any of these teams.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Also, while I have no idea what they'll do, I certainly hope (as others wished above) that CMU will keep CWRU at the very least if PAC has some non-league games available, and perhaps manage occasional non league dates with W&J or Grove City even if they're not an annual series.

[E.115]

More news:  https://www.observer-reporter.com/sports/college_sports/2024/sep/09/carnegie-mellon-bolting-from-pac-again/

CWRU joined CMU in 2014 back into the PAC...I am now wondering if they will follow them out of the PAC...

Remember there is even the deeper connection with CMU with the UAA, and also includes Centennial's JHU being a founding member.

With nearby JCU joining the NCAC, that is another strong connection for CWRU.

In a nutshell, I would be surprised if CWRU stays in the PAC now. 

[E.115]

In other news, CWRU WR Noah Coyne received a national media shout out today: 

Author: https://x.com/FBallGameplan/status/1833547566207668689

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/the-hunt-report-meet-the-400-yard-rusher-plus-more-standouts-as-small-college-football-gets-into-full-swing/

[WRMUalum13]

I did a little statistical analysis using Logan Hansens current ratings of both the PAC and CC. The PAC's best teams are definitely just as good as the CC, but their league doesn't have as many lower ranked teams. The median PAC team is ranked 125, and the Median CC team is ranked 48. It's easier to have a tighter spread considering they have so many fewer teams

PAC top 5: 17,25,32,51,64
CC top 5: 14,33,43,48,99

I don't really like the travel rationale given by CMU, I'm not sure their student-athletes are particularly going to enjoy the longer bus rides through the middle of nowhere PA to get to Gettysburg or Carlisle PA. Seems like less travel is typically preferred unless it's an interesting destination.

[Pat Coleman]

I did a little statistical analysis using Logan Hansens current ratings of both the PAC and CC. The PAC's best teams are definitely just as good as the CC, but their league doesn't have as many lower ranked teams. The median PAC team is ranked 125, and the Median CC team is ranked 48. It's easier to have a tighter spread considering they have so many fewer teams

PAC top 5: 17,25,32,51,64
CC top 5: 14,33,43,48,99

I don't really like the travel rationale given by CMU, I'm not sure their student-athletes are particularly going to enjoy the longer bus rides through the middle of nowhere PA to get to Gettysburg or Carlisle PA. Seems like less travel is typically preferred unless it's an interesting destination.

Having an additional non-conference game at their disposal would help with that, though.

Agreed that the football team does not get the same experience that their UAA teams do.

[jam40jeff]

If the PAC booted the 4 worst teams, it'd be similar to the CC.  The problem is that there are too many of those teams filling up the schedules of the top teams.

[ExTartanPlayer]

^I almost posted something like that earlier - maybe a simpler way to compare the PAC and CC is to say that teams 1 through 5 in both leagues are probably pretty similar...only there are 6 more PAC teams below that who are all about the same as the CC's bottom two.

[WRMUalum13]

I did a little statistical analysis using Logan Hansens current ratings of both the PAC and CC. The PAC's best teams are definitely just as good as the CC, but their league doesn't have as many lower ranked teams. The median PAC team is ranked 125, and the Median CC team is ranked 48. It's easier to have a tighter spread considering they have so many fewer teams

PAC top 5: 17,25,32,51,64
CC top 5: 14,33,43,48,99

I don't really like the travel rationale given by CMU, I'm not sure their student-athletes are particularly going to enjoy the longer bus rides through the middle of nowhere PA to get to Gettysburg or Carlisle PA. Seems like less travel is typically preferred unless it's an interesting destination.

Having an additional non-conference game at their disposal would help with that, though.

Agreed that the football team does not get the same experience that their UAA teams do.

Yeah I could understand if they wanted football players to get the opportunity to fly to Georgia or Missouri or something like the other UAA sports but again I'm not sure the bus trips out to eastern PA is gonna be a net benefit

[jam40jeff]

I think everybody is looking too deeply into this.  I know this is a slight to some of the teams in the PAC, but let's be real.  This move is likely due almost solely to the fact that CMU isn't thrilled about having over half their games each year be similar to the one they just played this past Saturday.