FB: Presidents' Athletic Conference

[badbadman]

spilskin - hey, no fair taking the underdog role against JHU.  Remember, if we win it an upset.  If you win the 14th ranked team in the country just beat a team that doesn't have a single vote in the D3 top 25!

No sarcasm intended, WE are the underdogs.

[spliskin]

Badman,

When 2 of the 5 D3football.com writers in Around the Nation expect JHU to beat Thiel, a 3rd writers says that TC is a "shaky 2nd seed", and a fourth feels the game will be "surprisingly close"; you can no longer claim "underdog status" for JHU. Additionally, JHU is 3-0 in post season appearances while Thiel has no "credit history" in the post season. Rankings don't mean a thing and that's what makes this tournament the best one going. Win or hang up your cleats.

In all seriousness, both JHU and Thiel are big underdogs in this tournament. As first timers, regardless of who wins this first round no-one will expect much in the 2nd round game vs BC or WJ. That is a role that I relish.

[Pat Coleman]

You can't take credit for JHU's ECAC games as "postseason history" -- it ain't the same.

[mandfense]

Puzzling to me how Thiel isn't getting much respect in "Around the Nation" - anyone else have any thoughts on that??  What else do they have to do?  Win a few playoff games I suppose

Maybe it's not a case that Thiel isn't getting much respect, but that an 8-2 JHU team isn't as bad as Thiel fans think or had hoped.

[miz]

God, I love being the underdog & I wish we had to travel in the first round to make it official!!!!!!!!!

Congratulations on your first playoff apperance and welcome.  This stuff is great!  Football at it's best for my money.  

One thing though, when you are the undefeated #2 seed in the region playing the #8 seed  at home you cannot proclaim to be the underdog.  You are the heavy favorite.  A #8 over a #2 would be a major upset (and JHU might be the #32 seed in the whole tournament).  

[mandfense]

(and JHU might be the #32 seed in the whole tournament).  

Ummmmmm, no.  That honor goes to Curry.

[miz]

(and JHU might be the #32 seed in the whole tournament).  

Ummmmmm, no.  That honor goes to Curry.

Good point. 

Then what I should have said was, "...and JHU might be the 31st seed in the whole tournament, after Curry." 

[spliskin]

One thing though, when you are the undefeated #2 seed in the region playing the #8 seed  at home you cannot proclaim to be the underdog.  You are the heavy favorite.  A #8 over a #2 would be a major upset (and JHU might be the #32 seed in the whole tournament).  

Yea, you're correct and that's what I thought initially, but when the Guru's expect a #8 to beat a #2 then they feel that either the #8 is better than the #8 seed or they feel that the #2 is overated, or both. If this game had a betting line in Vegas the Guru's comments would certainly move the line towards JHU. It may not move from (+) to (- ) but it would definitely move the line.

[mandfense]

One thing though, when you are the undefeated #2 seed in the region playing the #8 seed  at home you cannot proclaim to be the underdog.  You are the heavy favorite.  A #8 over a #2 would be a major upset (and JHU might be the #32 seed in the whole tournament).  

Yea, you're correct and that's what I thought initially, but when the Guru's expect a #8 to beat a #2 then they feel that either the #8 is better than the #8 seed or they feel that the #2 is overated, or both. If this game had a betting line in Vegas the Guru's comments would certainly move the line towards JHU. It may not move from (+) to (- ) but it would definitely move the line.

The Laz Index has Thiel as an 8.5 point favorite.  That's a pretty big favorite in Vegas or any casino.  Massey ratings have Thiel 22, JHU 81.  Thiel is ranked in both the ACFA and d3football.com polls.  JHU didn't get 1 vote in either poll.  Thiel is ranked #2 in the South region.  JHU might be #10 at best.

Rationalize all you want Thiel fans, you are the favorites.  Period.

[d3fbalumn]

Quoted from mandefense on Centenial Conference board at 8:24 pm:

"All biases aside, JHU/Thiel should be an evenly matched game."

[quote author=mandfense link=topic=3947.msg420370#msg420370
The Laz Index has Thiel as an 8.5 point favorite.  That's a pretty big favorite in Vegas or any casino.  Massey ratings have Thiel 22, JHU 81.  Thiel is ranked in both the ACFA and d3football.com polls.  JHU didn't get 1 vote in either poll.  Thiel is ranked #2 in the South region.  JHU might be #10 at best.

Rationalize all you want Thiel fans, you are the favorites.  Period.

This is comical. At 8:24 pm you believed this was an evenly matched game and at 9:25 pm you believe Thiel is an 8 1/2 point favorite in response to someone that agreed with your 8:24 pm post.

This reminds me of:

Daffy Duck----------"It's Rabbit Season"
Bugs Bunny-------"No, It's Duck Season"
Daffy Duck----------"No, it's Rabbit Season"
Bugs Bunny--------"No, It's Rabbit Seaon"
Daffy Duck---------"For the last time, It's Duck Season, now shoot the duck"

[OldPhart]

You can't take credit for JHU's ECAC games as "postseason history" -- it ain't the same.

Hmmm -  that seems to be what JHU is claiming though.  Check out page one on the Hopkins game notes touting JHU's  "...numerous members of the team with post-season experience."

Regarding underdog/overdog status: a casual glance over the OAC pick 'em gives has Thiel as the 8.5 point favorite and the picks are overwhelmingly going to Thiel.  While I picked Thiel along with most of the others in that pick 'em, I know that every "dog" has his day.  To follow up on Spliskins comments: I think that the picks that came in later on that board broke a little more to JHU's favor -  maybe a reflection on the ATN article.

[PittTBCW]

I agree with alot of people's comments.

I especially liked the job the writers did in the around the nation segment even though they see Thiel not hanging around very long.

Its simple Thiel is a better team and are the favorites. However, if they struggle like they have in some games and get out of the gate slow there will not be a OT comeback. JH is a playoff team that will not allow a team to hang around and beat them in OT. They have a good defense and with a lead they will be tough to beat. Furthermore, if Thiel brings their game on both sides of the ball and Minton is healthy it could be a long day for JH. Thats the best thing about settling it on the field. I am curious to see which WR will out shine each other. I am also to see who wins the trench battle. That will ultimately decide the outcome of this game. If Thiel's o line is rocking and rolling then the JH defense will be in trouble.


Only a few more days!

Good luck Tomcats

[Pat Coleman]

(and JHU might be the #32 seed in the whole tournament). 

Ummmmmm, no.  That honor goes to Curry.

Good point. 

Then what I should have said was, "...and JHU might be the 31st seed in the whole tournament, after Curry." 

Ummmmmm, no. That honor goes to Lakeland.

[mandfense]

Quoted from mandefense on Centenial Conference board at 8:24 pm:

"All biases aside, JHU/Thiel should be an evenly matched game."

[quote author=mandfense link=topic=3947.msg420370#msg420370
The Laz Index has Thiel as an 8.5 point favorite.  That's a pretty big favorite in Vegas or any casino.  Massey ratings have Thiel 22, JHU 81.  Thiel is ranked in both the ACFA and d3football.com polls.  JHU didn't get 1 vote in either poll.  Thiel is ranked #2 in the South region.  JHU might be #10 at best.

Rationalize all you want Thiel fans, you are the favorites.  Period.

This is comical. At 8:24 pm you believed this was an evenly matched game and at 9:25 pm you believe Thiel is an 8 1/2 point favorite in response to someone that agreed with your 8:24 pm post.

This reminds me of:

Daffy Duck----------"It's Rabbit Season"
Bugs Bunny-------"No, It's Duck Season"
Daffy Duck----------"No, it's Rabbit Season"
Bugs Bunny--------"No, It's Rabbit Seaon"
Daffy Duck---------"For the last time, It's Duck Season, now shoot the duck"

No, I believe it's an evenly matched game.  The Laz Power Index says Thiel are 8.5 point favorites.  Reading Comprehension 101.   

[d3fbalumn]

No, I believe it's an evenly matched game.  The Laz Power Index says Thiel are 8.5 point favorites.  Reading Comprehension 101.   

Since you don't put any stock in the Laz Power Index (you obviously don't agree with them), why are you citing them? If I agree with you that JHU is the underdog will you then start to tell me why they should win? Logic & Reasoning 101