The Undefeated and the Winless

[magicman]

Survivor Series   Undefeated

And we arrive at the Final Four
 
Hoops Fan                Wooster

magicman                 Middlebury

PointSpecial              Amherst   
         
Greg Sager               Whitworth

Who will be the next to fall?

Looking at the schedules Middlebury has the toughest upcoming matchup as they go on the road to face #6 Williams on January 29th. With a healthy Troy Whittington back for the Ephs, there's a good chance their run comes to an end.

Wooster faces Wittenberg on January 22nd but the Scots have home court advantage for the 1st go around with the Tigers. Still the possibility of an upset does exist when these 2 get together. The big rematch with Wabash takes place in Wooster on Feb. 5th and the rematch at Witt is Feb. 12th.

Amherst (and PointSpecial) lucked out when the big game last week against Williams took place without the Ephs' Whittington, and the Lord Jeffs escaped Williamstown with an overtime victory.With Whittington, I think Williams wins that game and nescac1 would be here in the final four instead of PointSpecial. Amherst could and should win their next 7 games but they end the regular season with games at home against Brandeis on Feb. 8th followed by back to back road games against Middlebury and Williams. Don't see them going undefeated but they may well be the last team standing. Until those 3 tough ones only a home game against an 11-2 Bowdoin team on Jan. 29th and a road game at 9-5 Rhode Island on Feb.1st might upset a PointSpecial coronation.

For choosing a team with about 2 seconds of thought, Greg has managed to not only reach the final four, but I believe, is now the favorite to win it all. I don't think any team in the country has ran through their conference opponents as handily as the Pirates have. Their average margin of victory in their 15-0 unbeaten run is 20.7 points. No out of conference opponent has come within single digits and only 1 team all year, Puget Sound, who lost 72-65, has managed to stay with 10 points of Whitworth. In conference play their average MOV is 21.6. Currently sporting a 6-0 conference record the only 2 teams the Pirates have yet to play are 3-12 Pacific and 10-5 Whitman. After the way they've handled the rest of the league I don't think these 2 teams will pose a threat. Their biggest obstacle to running the table will probably be a home game with  Lewis and Clark on Jan. 29th. The Pioneers right now look to be the 2nd best team in the conference and are starting to get some backing in the Top 25 poll as they have moved into the #30 spot. The Pirates beat L&C on the road last month 77-60. Whitworth follows that game with back to back road games against Puget Sound and Pac Lutheran on the first weekend in February. Pacific Lutheran did play St Thomas tough back on 11-19, only losing to the Tommies 73-70, so anything is possible and Puget Sound as mentioned above gave the Pirates their toughest game of the year. But somehow when it's all said and done, I think we'll be wrapping the robe around Mr. Sager while handing him his scepter and crown. It may end up being the best extemporaneous pick he ever made.


Of course there is always the possibility that the race won't be over until the NCAA tournament is under way. We conceivably could end up with 3 undefeated teams at the end of the regular season with Wooster, Whitworth. and the winner of the Amherst-Middlebury game.       

   

[Ralph Turner]

Survivor Series   Undefeated

And we arrive at the Final Four
 
Hoops Fan                Wooster

magicman                 Middlebury

PointSpecial              Amherst   
         
Greg Sager               Whitworth

...

Yeah, that looks plausible.  I am trying to figure out how to get Middlebury and Amherst sufficently separated so as not to meet until the Final Four in Salem.  Whitworth and Wooster are plausible for the other 2 slots.   

[magicman]

Survivor Series   Undefeated

And we arrive at the Final Four
 
Hoops Fan                Wooster

magicman                 Middlebury

PointSpecial              Amherst   
         
Greg Sager               Whitworth

...

Yeah, that looks plausible.  I am trying to figure out how to get Middlebury and Amherst sufficently separated so as not to meet until the Final Four in Salem.  Whitworth and Wooster are plausible for the other 2 slots.   

Ralph,
With Williams, Amherst and Middlebury all coming out of NESCAC, and with the East, and Atlantic regions being so weak, I think you can send a pool c team, either Amherst or Mid over to the Atlantic region. Let's say Amherst goes to the Atlantic where they can beat a Mid Atlantic or an ODAC team to get to Salem. Meanwhile Middlebury advances through the Northeast and East to get to Salem.

[Gregory Sager]

For choosing a team with about 2 seconds of thought, Greg has managed to not only reach the final four, but I believe, is now the favorite to win it all. I don't think any team in the country has ran through their conference opponents as handily as the Pirates have. Their average margin of victory in their 15-0 unbeaten run is 20.7 points. No out of conference opponent has come within single digits and only 1 team all year, Puget Sound, who lost 72-65, has managed to stay with 10 points of Whitworth. In conference play their average MOV is 21.6. Currently sporting a 6-0 conference record the only 2 teams the Pirates have yet to play are 3-12 Pacific and 10-5 Whitman. After the way they've handled the rest of the league I don't think these 2 teams will pose a threat. Their biggest obstacle to running the table will probably be a home game with  Lewis and Clark on Jan. 29th. The Pioneers right now look to be the 2nd best team in the conference and are starting to get some backing in the Top 25 poll as they have moved into the #30 spot. The Pirates beat L&C on the road last month 77-60. Whitworth follows that game with back to back road games against Puget Sound and Pac Lutheran on the first weekend in February. Pacific Lutheran did play St Thomas tough back on 11-19, only losing to the Tommies 73-70, so anything is possible and Puget Sound as mentioned above gave the Pirates their toughest game of the year. But somehow when it's all said and done, I think we'll be wrapping the robe around Mr. Sager while handing him his scepter and crown. It may end up being the best extemporaneous pick he ever made.

Let that be a lesson for all you kids at home: Don't think too hard about anything, and always go with the first impulse that pops into your head.

Oh, and stay in school and don't do drugs.

[hopefan]

Where do we stand now with the undefeated and winless...

incidentally, I haven't seen any mention of our old favorites, UMPI, (Maine Presque Isle), so checked out their site....  they have 2 wins this year, one against E. Maine JC that is not recognized on these pages, and one vs Maine Augusta...

not surprisingly, Maine Augusta's only win over a 4 year school is vs old favorite Unity

Unity's only win is a 40 point win over NORTHERN Maine community college....  now there is a program that probably could use some help!!!!  (Northern Maine CC is located, you guessed it, in Presque Isle)

[smedindy]

Someone's Gotta Do This, And I'm That Someone! Since it's been a while I'll just list who is undefeated and winless still and not the changes. Corrections helpful, of course.


Undefeated:

Wooster (18-0)
Augustana (17-0)
Amherst (16-0)
Whitworth (17-0)
Middlebury (15-0)


Winless:

Polytechnic (0-16)
Philadelphia Bible (0-13)
Green Mountain (0-8)


Undefeated vs. D3 - See Undefeated. No special cases.


Winless vs. D3:

Eureka (1-15, win vs. Lincoln Christian)
Johnson State (3-10, wins vs. St. Joseph's (VT), SUNY-Canton, Maine-Augusta)
Maine-Presque Isle (3-11, wins vs. Maine-Augusta, SUNY-Canton, Fisher)
Millikin (1-15, win vs. Robert Morris - Springfield)

[smedindy]

And now, let's prognosticate. The Massey Rating chance for perfection (or lack of it) is in parenthesis.

Wooster (37.01%) - That's a little low. They have Wabash, but at home, and their only real tough road game is at Wittenberg. I don't think anyone else can come close, though Hiram can give them issues. There's some bad blood between them.

Augie (15.84%) - They close with four straight road games, and two of them are at IWU and at Wheaton. They'll lose one.

Amherst (14.59%) - They play at Middlebury and at Williams the last two games of the season. Unbeaten until then, they could lose two straight.

Whitworth (79.75%) - Top ranked Massey team's toughest opponent is at home (Lewis & Clark). Their toughest road games are at PLU and at Whitman. I bet they have a clean slate until tourney time.

Middlebury (7.68%) - They play at Williams 1/29. That's a tough one. The next game after Williams they play Green Mountain. Ying...meet yang!

+++++++

As for the winless, Massey can project wins the rest of the season:

Polytechnic (0.94) - They play Bard. Probably their only shot unless they knock Yeshiva off on the road.

Philly Bible (0.29) - Massey says that they have only a 7% chance to beat Immaculata, a 6% chance to beat Baptist Bible and a 6% chance to beat Marywood. That's as high as they get. Probably an o-fer.

Green Mountain (0.24) - Massey says they have a 16% chance to beat Paul Smith. Otherwise, it's 3% chance or less.

Eureka (2.11) - Good chances to beat Blackburn and Fontbonne. 1 in 3 chance to nip Principia on the road.

Johnson State (4.25) - They play Green Mountain twice. QED.

UMPI (1.83) - Only Skyline conference games left, so no D-3 chances.

Millikin (0.27) - They have a 10% chance to beat Elmhurst at home. They're in the wrong league to try to escape the winless vs. D-3 list.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Middlebury goes down.  We're at three.

[magicman]

As I expected Williams removed me from the undefeated list as they beat the Middlebury Panthers today 69-64. I think that Middlebury wins if they have their top gun Ryan Sharry but that's how Williams lost their only game as well.  Amherst won't beat both Williams and Middlebury on that final weekend of the regular NESCAC season. In fact I think they lose both games and Williams will end up as the regular season champs. Middlebury takes 2nd and Amherst comes in 3rd. Greg or Hoops Fan will battle it out, but as I stated earlier my money's on Greg.

[smedindy]

But, where have the touts and bookies in NESCAC-land put the line on the Middlebury / Green Mountain game?

[magicman]

But, where have the touts and bookies in NESCAC-land put the line on the Middlebury / Green Mountain game?

My guess is that Coach Brown will go to his bench early and often, but his end of the bench players are going to be too tough for the Eagles. Middlebury hasn't hit the century mark all year and they've certainly played a few teams where that was possible. Coach Brown has always been a classy guy and doesn't like to rub it in. That being said it'll be hard to stop eager reserves from wanting to score. He'll make them run though their sets, use the clock, take a little air out of the ball, and they'll finish right around the century mark. I'm thinking 98-48 final.

[sac]

Middlebury goes down.  We're at three.

I'm no math wiz, but I count 4 

Undefeated:

Wooster (19-0)
Augustana (19-0)
Amherst (18-0)
Whitworth (18-0)
Middlebury (15-0)

[Gregory Sager]

I think he means that there's three people alive in the survivor contest, as I don't believe that anyone chose Augie.

[sac]

I think he means that there's three people alive in the survivor contest, as I don't believe that anyone chose Augie.

Ah, well that makes sense and only validates the not being a wiz

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

We're down to two.  I'm out, sadly.  I blame the refs.

On the bright side, though, I will no longer feel like a traitor for voting Whitworth #1 on my poster's poll ballot.