FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[matblake]

So I guess that's going to become a staple of Bell week, since I think you Wheaties posted the same thing last year.

Actually, last year I posted some quotes from an article about Cardinals being clumsy and weak.  I searched for the post (albeit half-heartedly) but couldn't find it.

[Mugsy]

So I guess that's going to become a staple of Bell week, since I think you Wheaties posted the same thing last year.

For someone about to run 26.2 miles in 85 degree weather, I'm not sure you should be thinking about secretions and feces. 

Important information for Wheaton fans and players to follow after Saturday's game listed here.

I don't know about you but after reading the first point and then thinking about "Naperville School" posters... I about lost my lunch.

No disrepect meant, but handling their secretions and feces... 

Now that's funny. I don't care who you are!

Um... right now I'm not finding it too funny.   

[79jaybird]

All of this "jockeying for position (off the fields mind you) can be summed up in a few words. 
Until you consistently win games and get the big wins,  you will always have the doubters and the "neigh sayers".
Ex. Wheaton was not very good in late 70's early 80's. I.E. Coach Peltz never beat Elmhurst.  On the flipside, very few people ever beat Harve Chrouser's groups.  Do you think people consistently favored Wheaton in the 70's/80's?    Nowadays, I have had them picked to win the CCIW the last 6 years. 
My point here is that Wheaton and Augie have been your frontrunners the last 20-25 years, so until you consistently beat these two,  the EC/NC/Car  Will always have the doubters and pessimists saying "middle of the pack."

The uprising of these 3 teams is great and I am glad to see this.

[cardinaldad]

So I guess that's going to become a staple of Bell week, since I think you Wheaties posted the same thing last year.

For someone about to run 26.2 miles in 85 degree weather, I'm not sure you should be thinking about secretions and feces. 

Important information for Wheaton fans and players to follow after Saturday's game listed here.

I don't know about you but after reading the first point and then thinking about "Naperville School" posters... I about lost my lunch.

No disrepect meant, but handling their secretions and feces... 

Now that's funny. I don't care who you are!

Um... right now I'm not finding it too funny.   

lol...see what I mean? That's funny!

[burly]

BP
NP's greatest chance to win a CCIW game this year happens every weekend when they show up dressed and ready to play a game.

I have to call you out and ask for a more defined detail in why you believe this years NP team has the best chance of beating this years Carthage team other than "I Think".

I enjoy analyzing the quantitative side of the game, so my predictions are more statistically oriented.  Certainly, one cannot draw conclusions solely off stats, but for the most part, they provide strong guidance on future performance.  If anything, stats provide tangible ground for everyone to debate with or benchmark.

Again, it is unlikely that NPU will win a game this year; however, if they do, it will most likely come against Carthage, which so far looks like the 6th or 7th best team in the CCIW this year.

My reasons are two-fold:

1. Statistics

Lets see what happens - looks like a good match-up to me.

2007 CCIW Football Statistics (Through games of Oct 01, 2007) -- All games

TEAM STATISTICS                  NPU          OPP    TEAM STATISTICS       CARTHAGE          OPP
   
RUSHING YARDAGE.......          620          727    RUSHING YARDAGE......          351          282
PASSING YARDAGE.......          677          558     PASSING YARDAGE........        932          758
TOTAL OFFENSE...........         1297         1285    TOTAL OFFENSE........         1283         1040

2. Weekly Improvement

As Mr. Sager noted:

NPU's performance against North Central, as seen in contrast to how the Vikings performed against NCC last season, illustrates what I'm talking about. In 2006 NCC beat NPU by 44 points (58-14), outgained the Vikings 503 yards to 302, out-first-downed the Vikings 25 to 14, and gave up only one turnover to NPU's three. This past week, NCC beat NPU by 27 points (61-34), gained fewer yards than the Vikings (394-428), and the Cards had fewer first downs than did the royal blue and gold (19-20). The one category in which NPU failed to improve was turnovers. North Park coughed up the ball five times, while North Central didn't cough it up at all -- and that was the most significant reason why the Cards won the game.

It's difficult to say how good North Central's offense and defense are, but I think it's safe to say that they are better than (a minimum of) 3 other teams in the CCIW.  If NPU can continue to put up total offensive yardage like they did against North Central, eventually they are going to find themselves in a scoring shootout and have a shot to bring home a CCIW W.

Granted, NPU has played a weaker non-conference schedule and Carthage is playing better defensive thus far.  I still think the week-to-week improvement shown by NPU is worth noting and will be interested to see what happens vs. Milikin this week. 

Bottom line: If they play Milikin well this week generating strong total offense numbers, they have a chance of beating Carthage next week.  If not, it looks like another winless CCIW season.

[AndOne]

Re the NCC vs NPU game:

Could the reason for the statistical improvement this year just simply be the fact that NCC isn't as good this season, rather than NPU has improved that much?

Surely, no one can argue the NCC QB play this season is lacking as compared with the last few yrs. Additionally, what about the play of the O line, and the defense as a whole? Thats not to say NCC isn't still a far above average team, but to say NPU has made a significant improvement just because the stats improved is a little shortcited. 
After all, NCC still won by 27 points which is a fairly significant margin of victory.

[Gregory Sager]

Re the NCC vs NPU game:

Could the reason for the statistical improvement this year just simply be the fact that NCC isn't as good this season, rather than NPU has improved that much?

It's a fair possibility that North Central's decline from 2006 played a large role in the statistical outcome of the NCC @ NPU game, which is why I have stressed that NPU needs to be evaluated over more than one week of the CCIW season. I thus used four games (one completed, three yet to be played) for my statistical analysis: North Central, Carthage, Elmhurst, and Millikin, since the NCC contest was the first CCIW game this year for the Vikings and thus presents the first 2006 vs. 2007 comparison, and Carthage, Elmhurst, and Millikin are the three upcoming contests that Billy Pilgrim cited as being possible wins for the Vikings.

NPU has definitely improved. That much is certain. I've seen it firsthand. How much the Vikings have improved is open to debate -- especially since no team exists in a vacuum, and therefore NPU's improvement has to be gauged against the relative strength of the 2007 edition of the CCIW.

Surely, no one can argue the NCC QB play this season is lacking as compared with the last few yrs. Additionally, what about the play of the O line, and the defense as a whole? Thats not to say NCC isn't still a far above average team, but to say NPU has made a significant improvement just because the stats improved is a little shortcited. 

AO, the stats (scoring margin, total offensive yards, first downs) didn't just improve for NPU. They took a quantum leap in NPU's direction from last year's results. Unless NCC totally collapsed over the off-season -- and, while the loss to Wash U was a shocker, I think it's farfetched to say that the Cards have totally collapsed -- those statistics do indicate a significant improvement by North Park against at least that one opponent. Will that significant improvement be borne out in subsequent CCIW games, or is the NCC game just a statistical outlier for NPU caused to some degree by the decline of the Cardinals? For that we'll have to wait and see.

After all, NCC still won by 27 points which is a fairly significant margin of victory.

The one statistic that I said didn't improve for NPU vis-a-vis NCC -- in fact, it got worse -- was turnovers. And, as I said, turnovers provide the biggest explanation for the outcome of last Saturday's game. North Park turned the ball over three times in its own territory on fumbles -- on the 29 and 16 leading to two short-field NCC touchdowns, and on the 37 leading to a field goal for the Cardinals. Add an interception returned for an NCC TD and another interception returned for a two-point conversion, and you're looking at 26 North Central points that were caused directly by North Park turnovers. That's essentially the margin of victory right there. Other than that, the game -- as indicated by the stats -- was pretty much dead even. (Of course, since turnovers are among the most important variables in deciding the outcome of a football game, trying to analyze game results in which you're discounting the turnovers has a sort of, "Aside from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?" sort of vibe to it. )

I'm not saying that the Vikings deserved to win, or that the game was a nailbiter. They didn't, and it wasn't. But don't be misled by the final margin into thinking that the game was a rout, either.

[burly]

Re the NCC vs NPU game:

Could the reason for the statistical improvement this year just simply be the fact that NCC isn't as good this season, rather than NPU has improved that much?

Certainly, that's why I wrote this:

It's difficult to say how good North Central's offense and defense are, but I think it's safe to say that they are better than (a minimum of) 3 other teams in the CCIW.  If NPU can continue to put up total offensive yardage like they did against North Central, eventually they are going to find themselves in a scoring shootout and have a shot to bring home a CCIW W.

But, still recognizing this:

Granted, NPU has played a weaker non-conference schedule and Carthage is playing better defensive thus far.  I still think the week-to-week improvement shown by NPU is worth noting and will be interested to see what happens vs. Milikin this week.

[burly]

Things sure have changed since Wheaton beat Augie in 1991 for Wheaton's first win in that series in something like 16 seasons.  I remember former players in their 20's and 30's on the field afterward literally crying with joy at a Wheaton victory over Augie.  Wheaton went 7-1-1 that year but missed a conference championship due to a loss to Milikin and a tie vs. IWU.

Does anybody know:
1. What year a 10-game season was implemented for Wheaton/CCIW?
2. What year was overtime introduced in D3?

[burly]

[\quote]

Interesting points---- As someone recently brought up the idea of big 4 little 4 in the cciw was the norm for years.  I really think that now it is not the case at all.  There is one upper echelon team in the CCIW, Wheaton.  That will be the case until some other team can beat them on a consistent basis.  After that there are a bunch of middle teams and one bottom team, NPU....Not trying to beat up on the Vikes just stating facts.

The middle teams are hard to rank.  They are almost all interchangeable.  Here is my best stab at it

4. Carthage--- I know that I am a self-proclaimed homer, but the fact is that they have won a CCIW championship and made it to the 3rd round of NCAA playoffs in the past 3 years.  No team listed below Carthage can say that. And that is the only reason why I have Elmhurst listed below.

5 Elmhurst ---- Have won some very big games the past couple of years, but No play offs and no CCIW titles to show for it. 

6/7 Millikin--- So strong for the end of the 90's and early 00's, but have seem to have really fallen off

6/7IWU --- The team everyone loves to hate!  How the mighty have fallen!  Good start to the conference, Millikin and IWU are interchangeable in my opinion.

[/quote]

Redman04, this is ridiculous.

In case you missed it, Elmhurst beat Carthage and IWU beat Augie last weekend.  Even with this information, you've failed to incorporate that into your "best stab" at the conference standings.

It's amazing you have gotten away with this post. 

[Titan Q]

An article on IWU's linebackers...

http://www.pantagraph.com/articles/2007/10/05/sports/doc47059edd8d6a1505516243.txt

[redman04]

Redman04, this is ridiculous.

In case you missed it, Elmhurst beat Carthage and IWU beat Augie last weekend.  Even with this information, you've failed to incorporate that into your "best stab" at the conference standings.

It's amazing you have gotten away with this post. 

I've gotten away with it because it is a popularity contest!  +K (why not?)

As I stated in the post that until they win a Conference or go to playoffs I rank Carthage ahead of Elmhurst.  same way that I rank Augie ahead of IWU even though IWU won.  1 conference game does not make the season.  If Elmhurst was to go winless the rest of the year or same with IWU would say they should be ranked ahead of the teams they beat? 

[redman04]

An article on IWU's linebackers...

http://www.pantagraph.com/articles/2007/10/05/sports/doc47059edd8d6a1505516243.txt

Nice article, but I never heard IWU's D be referred to as the "green swarm"  I prefer the "Green Weenies" but that's a different story.  I do remember NCC calling their D the "Cardinal Swarm" under DeGeorge. 

Does anybody know:
1. What year a 10-game season was implemented for Wheaton/CCIW?
2. What year was overtime introduced in D3?

FYI... pretty sure 2000 was the year that the CCIW allowed team to play 10 games (I know it was the first year Carthage was allowed to)
I think that 1996 was the year they added overtime in CCIW (not sure on this, I know that Carthage and NCC tied in 1995 & I am pretty sure that was the last tie in CCIW.  Not sure if an NCAA rule or CCIW rule was changed or added)

[burly]

Redman04, this is ridiculous.

In case you missed it, Elmhurst beat Carthage and IWU beat Augie last weekend.  Even with this information, you've failed to incorporate that into your "best stab" at the conference standings.

It's amazing you have gotten away with this post. 

I've gotten away with it because it is a popularity contest!  +K (why not?)

As I stated in the post that until they win a Conference or go to playoffs I rank Carthage ahead of Elmhurst.  same way that I rank Augie ahead of IWU even though IWU won.  1 conference game does not make the season.  If Elmhurst was to go winless the rest of the year or same with IWU would say they should be ranked ahead of the teams they beat? 

When was the last time Carthage won conference?  Correct me if I'm wrong, but 2004 ended up in a tie for first - only a shut out and 35 points away from what could have been...  Lets stick to make it to the playoffs for now .

We are on the same page regarding Augie vs. IWU, except that you should move IWU up a couple of spots.  Or, wait for this weekend and lets see what happens.

Your rankings are the same as the preason coaches poll but fail to incorporate two key victories: IWU over Augie and EC over Carthage.  Also, Elmhurst should be ranked ahead of Carthage for two reasons:
1. There preason CCIW coaches poll rankings - 4, Carthage, 5, Elmhurst
2. Elmhurst beat Carthage

Rankings change week-to-week, but yours haven't despite these wins.  In fact, you haven't moved either IWU or EC despite them both beating teams ranked above them last week.

Have you considered working for the BCS?

[redman04]

Never read Coaches poll.  Also these are not weekly rankings I gave.  This was a response to who is in the upper echelon of the conference. 

The debate jaybird and I have been having about Elmhurst this weekend brings to mind another topic I have been pondering. When has a team arrived at the top of the conference to be considered one of the best? Clearly Jaybird feels Elmhurst already belongs as he mentions them consistently when speaking of the last few conference champions. Carthage may feel they belong since they have won a conference championship and gone to the playoffs in the last few years. Naperville has a claim as they have been to the playoffs and shared their first CCIW title in forever. Wheaton has lost more to Mt Union than any CCIW team in the last 7 years and Augie has always been at the top of the CCIW.

Clearly a mark of success is the ability to make the NCAA playoffs. whether that's by AQ or pool C if you are in you have won most of your games in the CCIW. But in looking at the process of getting to that point I took the Naperville school as an example. They wallowed in mediocrity for years under previous regimes. they then showed signs of promise and their breakthrough wins were beating Augie in 2004 and Wheaton in 2005. Both of those victories were at home. They came close to beating Augie in Rock Island in 2005 and lost on a last second field goal. They have yet no road wins against any of the last 3 conference champions. Those are hard facts to overlook. So for teams like Naperville, Carthage, and Elmhurst, I think they have to show everyone they can win on the road. Even Carthage hasn't beaten Augie or Wheaton at their place. More importantly, This codifies what I have been feeling about Elmhurst this weekend vs Augie. Elmhurst hasn't shown me a big win at home to indicate they are ready to compete with Augie on the road. I may be wrong and this Saturday they have a chance to change that trend, but history shows that's not how it happens. Now Elmhurst's players don't believe that and they shouldn't, they are certainly talented enough to beat anyone if they play well.

Interesting points---- As someone recently brought up the idea of big 4 little 4 in the cciw was the norm for years.  I really think that now it is not the case at all.  There is one upper echelon team in the CCIW, Wheaton.  That will be the case until some other team can beat them on a consistent basis.  After that there are a bunch of middle teams and one bottom team, NPU....Not trying to beat up on the Vikes just stating facts.

The middle teams are hard to rank.  They are almost all interchangeable.  Here is my best stab at it

I never said that it was a weekly ranking. 

I would put EC above Carthage if I was making a weekly ranking, but that is not what I did.