FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[burly]

BP
NP's greatest chance to win a CCIW game this year happens every weekend when they show up dressed and ready to play a game.

I have to call you out and ask for a more defined detail in why you believe this years NP team has the best chance of beating this years Carthage team other than "I Think".

I enjoy analyzing the quantitative side of the game, so my predictions are more statistically oriented.  Certainly, one cannot draw conclusions solely off stats, but for the most part, they provide strong guidance on future performance.  If anything, stats provide tangible ground for everyone to debate with or benchmark.

Again, it is unlikely that NPU will win a game this year; however, if they do, it will most likely come against Carthage, which so far looks like the 6th or 7th best team in the CCIW this year.

My reasons are two-fold:

1. Statistics

Lets see what happens - looks like a good match-up to me.

2007 CCIW Football Statistics (Through games of Oct 01, 2007) -- All games

TEAM STATISTICS                  NPU          OPP    TEAM STATISTICS       CARTHAGE          OPP
   
RUSHING YARDAGE.......          620          727    RUSHING YARDAGE......          351          282
PASSING YARDAGE.......          677          558     PASSING YARDAGE........        932          758
TOTAL OFFENSE...........         1297         1285    TOTAL OFFENSE........         1283         1040

2. Weekly Improvement

As Mr. Sager noted:

NPU's performance against North Central, as seen in contrast to how the Vikings performed against NCC last season, illustrates what I'm talking about. In 2006 NCC beat NPU by 44 points (58-14), outgained the Vikings 503 yards to 302, out-first-downed the Vikings 25 to 14, and gave up only one turnover to NPU's three. This past week, NCC beat NPU by 27 points (61-34), gained fewer yards than the Vikings (394-428), and the Cards had fewer first downs than did the royal blue and gold (19-20). The one category in which NPU failed to improve was turnovers. North Park coughed up the ball five times, while North Central didn't cough it up at all -- and that was the most significant reason why the Cards won the game.

It's difficult to say how good North Central's offense and defense are, but I think it's safe to say that they are better than (a minimum of) 3 other teams in the CCIW.  If NPU can continue to put up total offensive yardage like they did against North Central, eventually they are going to find themselves in a scoring shootout and have a shot to bring home a CCIW W.

Granted, NPU has played a weaker non-conference schedule and Carthage is playing better defensive thus far.  I still think the week-to-week improvement shown by NPU is worth noting and will be interested to see what happens vs. Milikin this week. 

Bottom line: If they play Milikin well this week generating strong total offense numbers, they have a chance of beating Carthage next week.  If not, it looks like another winless CCIW season.

Stats are a nice measuring stick, but when you compare apples to oranges by opponents you can't draw much conclusion. Team personnel is also subject to change week by week with injuries. When there are some common CCIW opponents to compare to that makes stats a little more relevant. So I guess I'm saying if these stats are what you draw your conclusion that NP's best chance to win a CCIW game is against Carthage, I'm not buying it.

You saw this, right?

Certainly, one cannot draw conclusions solely off stats, but for the most part, they provide strong guidance on future performance.  If anything, stats provide tangible ground for everyone to debate with or benchmark.

As I said earlier NP's best chance to win is every week when they show up at a field ready to play and compete which is what they are doing. You can't forget that when Carthage finished 5th in the Nation in 2004 they barely survived NP in a 14-12 contest at NP. Carthage scored on a blocked field goal returned by Steve Rucks for a TD, then Brett Barnes picked off his third pass of the game late in the 4th qtr and returned it for the winning score. Barnes was named CCIW defensive player of week for his accomplishments that day. The offense was non-existent. I wondered if they ever got off the bus. Even while Carthage was riding high in 2004 they almost fell to the most unlikely opponent. I pray Carthage won't be NP's first victim.

We shall soon see.

[Tailgater]

BP responds:
You saw this, right?

Certainly, one cannot draw conclusions solely off stats, but for the most part, they provide strong guidance on future performance.  If anything, stats provide tangible ground for everyone to debate with or benchmark.


Certainly I did. Your sarcastic response is a clue to how you piled up negative karma (of which I won't contribute to) while so called "debating".  Reading and understanding the written word is a skill. One I think I'm capable of. You said "stats provide strong guidance on future performance". In this specific case I disagreed and believe there is little to no comparable measure of how these 2 teams match up as the stats represent no common opponents or circumstances.  If you had said "stats provide some guidance on future performance", I'd yield to that line of reasoning. The Carthage defense had lights-out stats in 2004, but these stats were meaningless as to how poorly Carthage would perform against NP and almost blow a magical season that year. "Statistically" NP has failed to win a CCIW game in many a year while Carthage has won it's fair share. Does this stat provide strong guidance on future performance? I doubt it or not necessarily.

[cardinaldad]

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!! Bell Day!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[burly]

BP responds:
You saw this, right?

Certainly, one cannot draw conclusions solely off stats, but for the most part, they provide strong guidance on future performance.  If anything, stats provide tangible ground for everyone to debate with or benchmark.

You said "stats provide strong guidance on future performance". In this specific case I disagreed and believe there is little to no comparable measure of how these 2 teams match up as the stats represent no common opponents or circumstances.  If you had said "stats provide some guidance on future performance", I'd yield to that line of reasoning.

Fair enough, I should have used "some". 

[matblake]

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!! Bell Day!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You gotta love it!  This game is interesting on so many levels.  Will the Cardinals work out their secondary woes?  Will the 3-3-5 defense be able to pick off Wheaton's QB's all day?  Will the vaunted Thunder defense be able to stop the best back they have seen to this point?  Will the Cardinal special teams make a mistake against Ittersagen?  Will the stout Cardinal front 6 be able to keep the Wheaton running game under wraps and make the Thunder one dimensional?  All this...and more at 8 PM Eastern/ 7 PM Central time!

[matblake]

More pub for the Little Brass Bell game in the Daily Dose.  Check out Pat's take on an upset.  Either you will be  or  depending on who you root for.

[burly]

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!! Bell Day!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You gotta love it!  This game is interesting on so many levels.  Will the Cardinals work out their secondary woes?  Will the 3-3-5 defense be able to pick off Wheaton's QB's all day?  Will the vaunted Thunder defense be able to stop the best back they have seen to this point?  Will the Cardinal special teams make a mistake against Ittersagen?  Will the stout Cardinal front 6 be able to keep the Wheaton running game under wraps and make the Thunder one dimensional?  All this...and more at 8 PM Eastern/ 7 PM Central time!

And finally, will the bell stay in Wheaton?  What's everyone's game day prediction?

[New Tradition]

GET THE BELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Titan Q]

An article previewing the IWU/Carthage game...

http://www.pantagraph.com/articles/2007/10/06/sports/doc4706e78c46ca0383469066.txt


If the Titans avoid the big special teams mistakes that have plagued them this season, I think it will be a great game. 

[usee]

An article previewing the IWU/Carthage game...

http://www.pantagraph.com/articles/2007/10/06/sports/doc4706e78c46ca0383469066.txt


If the Titans avoid the big special teams mistakes that have plagued them this season, I think it will be a great game. 

Good article. While this game probably gets 3rd billing for the CCIW race today it is a critical matchup as highlited in the Pantagraph. Carthage absolutely has to win this game to stay in the CCIW hunt. If they lose their title hopes are done. IWU is in a similar boat since both teams still have undefeated teams on their schedule. IWU will raise a lot of eyebrows with a win in Kenosha. I expect Carthage to prevail but I do not have a good feel for either team. I will watch this one closely.

[AndOne]

Wherever the venue today, it would be nice to have some good "football" weather!

[usee]

IWU 13
Carthage 7

2:15 1st Q

63 yard pass, Ladd to Scalcucci (2nd connection for those two)

Missed extra point

special teams woes continue for IWU. including to this missed xtra point the long snapper rolled a snap back to the punter. Carthage missed a FG however.

[Titan Q]

IWU 13
Carthage 7

2:15 1st Q

63 yard pass, Ladd to Scalcucci (2nd connection for those two)

Missed extra point

special teams woes continue for IWU. including to this missed xtra point the long snapper rolled a snap back to the punter. Carthage missed a FG however.

Yep, and what a killer when you're trying to win a tough road game.

It is nice to see some of the young talent though -- Ladd and Scalcucci are both sophomores and RB Bo Lanter is a freshman.

[usee]

Elmhurst 0
Augustana 0

End of 1st Q

per WJBC radio crew

Yes. 0-0 midway through 2nd. defense on both sides dominating. listening to Jbird on the elmhurst radio.

[WahooThunder]

More pub for the Little Brass Bell game in the Daily Dose.  Check out Pat's take on an upset.  Either you will be  or  depending on who you root for.

Sorry Pat, I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one.  The Wheaton quarterback will be fine, there are going to be some things that are different this week that should help with the pass protection issues.  Unless Sulo breaks through with a huge game, which I cannot see happening, Wheaton will win comfortably.  It is a rivalry game and it is on the road, but that only makes up for so much.  Wheaton is a much better team, and it will show tonight.