FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Titan Q]

Obviously a huge game in Bloomington next weekend in terms of the CCIW championship race.  Also big in terms of the NCAA tournament.  Just looking at IWU and NCC, remaining schedules are as follows:

IWU (6-0, 3-0)
10/22 - vs North Central
10/29 - @ Millikin
11/5 - @ Carthage
11/12 - vs Augustana

NCC (5-1, 3-0 CCIW)
10/22 - @ Illinois Wesleyan
10/29 - vs Elmhurst
11/5 - vs Wheaton
11/12 - vs North Park


If IWU beats NCC...

* I think it puts NCC on extremely thin ice in terms of the post-season.  The Cardinals already have an in-region loss (@ Redlands)...would a 2 loss NCC get an at-large bid?  I don't think the odds are good at all that they would.  Anyone disagree?  Seems like the second in-region loss is usually the death blow.

* NCC could still win the CCIW's AQ, but they'd need IWU to lose two games the rest of the way (@ Millikin, @ Carthage, vs Augustana) since IWU would win a 6-1 tie-breaker with the head-to-head win.  I could certainly see IWU tripping up at either Millikin or Carthage, but not both...and I don't see them losing at home to Augie.


With a win in Bloomington Saturday, North Central jumps into the CCIW title driver's seat and gets in good position in terms of regional seeding.  But with a loss, I'm not sure North Central plays in the post-season. 

From IWU's perspective, even though they could lose this game and still have a good shot at the post-season (if they win out), I'm sure they desperately want to win the CCIW title.  So maybe more NCAA tournament cushion, but to me, still basically the same amount on the line.  A "must win" kind of game for both really.
 

[NCF]

North Park is certainly closing the gap on the CCIW. It won't be long before they win a confewrence game or a few. I don't think it will be this year.

Wheaton sat several starters today (some recovering from injuries and some as a precaution. The wind was definitely a factor for wheaton there was a strong breeze across the field and from the Foster end of the field. Meadors throws were definitely affected, most notably on the 4th down in the second half when he tried to throw a deep out cut to Hiben, the nose of the ball got caught in the wind and it fluttered short and out of bounds. Also on the deep ball to Zeller that was nearly picked off, Meador does not underthrow a receiver by 7-8yds unless the wind is a factor.

The fumble by krebs I thought was a good call. He got hit (by an unblocked Defensive tackle-which has nothing to do with luck) and his arm was cocked to throw. I saw his arm move forward after the ball was out  the ball popped staright up and toward the Wheaton sideline and JD east scooped it up. Looked like a good call to me. The clock was an issue. Very short game with both teams only running 53 and 56 plays respectively.

Big game in Bloomington this week. I think IWU can beat the team from naperville. I suspect that the titans are actually better than the ThorneBirds but we'll see.

And no, I'm not back.

   Got my hopes up USee was back!

sure sounds like the wit and wisdom of usee. imho the keys to the "thornebirds" vs the "green weenies" could come down to special teams, penalties and turn overs. two solid defenses should set the tone early. iwu has given up 34 pts to nc's 10 (miliken's first score yesterday was on a fumble recovert returned for a touchdown). this is a the first of 4 "must win" games for nc if they want a 6th straight cciw title and play-off berth. for iwu, an outright title and they chance to knock nc out of the play-offs for the 2nd time in 3 years. will the cards play up to all their pre-season hype or are they just the ghosts of cardinals past? GO CARDS!

[USee]

If the ThorneBirds beat IWU and Wheaton beats the Naperville school, there will be a 3 way tie atop the CCIW. The tiebreaker comes down to point differential the games between the 3 schools. It very much matters the final score on Saturday night for Naperville. In this scenario, there is a chance (if the points fall the right way) that Naperville gets the AQ which would put IWU as a shoe in for an at large bid (with a win over Wheaton) and Wheaton hopes for a 3rd CCIW team to get a bid at 9-1. Either way, if the Titans go 3-1 the rest of the way they are in the playoffs IMO.

[Mugsy]

If IWU beats NCC...

* I think it puts NCC on extremely thin ice in terms of the post-season.  The Cardinals already have an in-region loss (@ Redlands)...would a 2 loss NCC get an at-large bid?  I don't think the odds are good at all that they would.  Anyone disagree?  Seems like the second in-region loss is usually the death blow.

Redlands is an in-region loss?

2 in-region losses spells trouble in a overwhelming majority of years.  Though there is precidence for it happening.  In 2008 Wheaton had consecutive losses to NCC and Elmhurst, but was the last team into the playoff field at 8-2.  I believe Wheaton's SOS was the prime reason for sneaking in.  They had non-conferences wins over Bethel and Concordia (Wisc) and the CCIW's overall non-conference record was stellar.  There was the perception that these were quality wins since both had been playoff teams in the recent past (Bethel went to semi-finals in 2007).

With a win in Bloomington Saturday, North Central jumps into the CCIW title driver's seat and gets in good position in terms of regional seeding.  But with a loss, I'm not sure North Central plays in the post-season. 

From IWU's perspective, even though they could lose this game and still have a good shot at the post-season (if they win out), I'm sure they desperately want to win the CCIW title.  So maybe more NCAA tournament cushion, but to me, still basically the same amount on the line.  A "must win" kind of game for both really.

My initial view without digging in further is to favor IWU in this game:
1. It is in Bloomington
2. IWU's QB question mark coming into 2011 has been answered
3. IWU's defense is very good and while NCC is still scoring a ton of points, their offense has been a bit more one-dimensional that in years past.  Stats might not show it as much, but in the few games I've seen the pass attack has struggled at times.  If IWU can make NCC one dimensional on offense, that could spell trouble.

Concerns to my initial view:
1. Injury and status of Stinde (RB for IWU).  IWU needs him to take pressure off Sophomore QB and balance the attack.
2. NCC defense is every bit as good as IWU's (if not better) and I'm not sure IWU can score enough points.

Both teams seem to be playing solid on special teams.  Whoever wins the special teams play and wins the turnover battle will likely win because that'll impact field position, which in a tight game is critical (no duh, Sherlock).

Should be some interesting discussion on this game to say the least.  I'm sure I'll change my pick for this game 15 times between now and Saturday.

[USee]

I see the IWU/Naperville game coming down to the play of the IWU offensive line vs the Def front of Naperville. Garza and company have a league leading 19 sacks and IWU has given up 10 on the season. IWU won't be able to run the ball much so their ability to give Gallick time (Naperville doesn't blitz much, they count on their guys beating yours) for the big IWU recievers to get open in the zones is key. Also, Naperville doesn't need to be anything other than one dimensional on offense if it works. If they can run the ball for over 225 yds against an IWU team that is giving up 113 yds per game (the biggest run threat they have seen this season is Scottie Williams-28 carr for 127) then IWU is in trouble. The issue with the Naperville running attack is the fact you have to stop the system, not just 1 guy. They have multiple formations to beat you with the run and can pass just enough to keep you honest. With both teams possessing enough skill players to hurt you, the best line play will rule the day in this one.

[Titan Q]

Redlands is an in-region loss?

In basketball, games played between a CCIW school and any D3 from the West region are considered "in-region" via the "administrative region" rule.  For example, IWU @ Cal Lutheran last season was counted as in-region.

I guess I shouldn't assume football has the same rule.  Can anyone confirm one way or the other?

[ncc58]

Just wanted to point out that, as least prior to Saturday, the NCC defense was statistically 3rd in the nation and 1st in the CCIW.

It was pointed out that once Stinde was injured, the IWU became one dimensional. Through the season, it speed of the NCC secondary has been discussed. Rob Gallik is not a surprise to me, since he's just another of the fine Chicago Catholic Leagurers to play in the CCIW.  But if the IWU becomes one dimensional, well, that works well for NCC.

As an intangible, The fourth year seniors on the NCC team have always lost to one CCIW team. That was IWU, at IWU. That loss kept them out of the playoffs in 2009. There will be extra incentive for the seniors to win this weekend.

If IWU commits to stopping the run, that could leave Mugsy's favorite NCC player with some opportunities to make some big plays.

If Redlands counts as in region loss, that's one humungous region - stretching from Chicago to the Pacific Ocean.

When I read the first "Usee" message, I wondered if it was an impostor. Too many spelling errors and the analysis wasn't as deep as normally seen from Usee. The second post was more in character. Whatever has been keeping Usee away, I hope everything is ok.

[Pat Coleman]

Redlands is an in-region loss?

In basketball, games played between a CCIW school and any D3 from the West region are considered "in-region" via the "administrative region" rule.  For example, IWU @ Cal Lutheran last season was counted as in-region.

I guess I shouldn't assume football has the same rule.  Can anyone confirm one way or the other?

The administrative regions are the same in every sport and NCC/Redlands is correctly noted as a regional game on our schedule pages.

[Titan Q]

I had a link to the basketball handbook - didn't look at the football handbook, but per Pat's post above, sounds like the wording must be the same.  Explanation of in-region play...


In region competition is defined as:

1. All competition within an institution's defined region.

2. All competition within a 200-mile radius from one institution to another.

3. All competition within an institution's membership geographical region (Bylaw 4.12.1.1). The country is divided into four membership regions as listed below. For most institutions this should result in an expanded list of potential in-region opponents than in the past.

Region 1 - Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Vermont

Region 2 - New York, Pennsylvania

Region 3 - Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, Puerto Rico, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia

Region 4 - Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Washington, Wisconsin, Wyoming



Rules 2 and 3 really open up the "in-region" list for CCIW schools.

[Mr. Ypsi]

As happens anytime there have to be boundary lines, 'in region' really has some strange twists.  As we've noted on the bball thread (many times), a game like NCC-Redlands (despite being nearly ten times the distance) is in region; the annual Wheaton-Calvin bball game is not!

[AndOne]

As happens anytime there have to be boundary lines, 'in region' really has some strange twists.  As we've noted on the bball thread (many times), a game like NCC-Redlands (despite being nearly ten times the distance) is in region; the annual Wheaton-Calvin bball game is not!

If the NCAA is involved chances are often good that their guidelines/rules for any particular competitive situation make little or no sense.
If you doubt it, think about it. A game between teams 1661 (air) miles apart is "in-region." but a game between teams 146 miles apart across Lake Michigan is not. Make it simple. 500 (or 400 or 300) miles or less, in-region. Over 500 (400 0r 300) miles, not!

[Pat Coleman]

Which is fine if you are in a densely populated part of Division III, but hardly equitable for schools in, say, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, California, Oregon or Washington.

[CardinalAlum]

I see the IWU/Naperville game coming down to the play of the IWU offensive line vs the Def front of Naperville. Garza and company have a league leading 19 sacks and IWU has given up 10 on the season. IWU won't be able to run the ball much so their ability to give Gallick time (Naperville doesn't blitz much, they count on their guys beating yours) for the big IWU recievers to get open in the zones is key. Also, Naperville doesn't need to be anything other than one dimensional on offense if it works. If they can run the ball for over 225 yds against an IWU team that is giving up 113 yds per game (the biggest run threat they have seen this season is Scottie Williams-28 carr for 127) then IWU is in trouble. The issue with the Naperville running attack is the fact you have to stop the system, not just 1 guy. They have multiple formations to beat you with the run and can pass just enough to keep you honest. With both teams possessing enough skill players to hurt you, the best line play will rule the day in this one.

Ok, this isn't Wheatie week, it's Weenie week, why are we "Naperville"? 

[AndOne]

Thoughtful and insightful posts above by Titan Q, newcardfan, USee, Mugsy, and IL Gator regarding the NCC/IWU game next Sat.

Among the points (some of which have been mentioned by the above posters) I think are noteworthy are:

*Game AT IWU--In my book home field is always, or should be, at least a small advantage.
*As a NCC fan I must say they suck in terms of the number of penalties taken. Thats OK if they're
playing a team they are going to score 60, 70, or 80 points against,  but not an IWU squad.
*Lets say the IWU rushing attack is limited either by ineptitude or injury. IWU QB Gallik is 2nd in the
conference in both total passing, and pass efficiency. And, Wesleyan is 1st in 3rd down conversion.
That says that in addition to the QB preforming well, the line is doing a good job of pass blocking,
and the receivers are both getting open and catching the ball.
*Have the Titans faced a rushing attack as potent and deep as that of NCC? The Cards have FOUR rushers
who average at least 6.8 yds per rush.
* I don't know how the Wesleyan team speed rates, but the NCC team is very fast. The DBs virtually fly to
the ball. I think IWU does the Cards a favor if they try to run outside and gain the corner or throw long
passes where the ball is in the air for a long time. NCC leads the league in total defense, sacks, interceptions,
and turnover margin.   
*Despite a pass efficiency rating of 140, and a 58% completion rate, senior QB Brad Crackel was replaced in
the starting lineup 2 games ago by freshman Tyler Dicken. Dicken hasn't faced a power anywhere near as potent as IWU.
Additionally, if you look into the more subtile nuances, one wonders what the NCC upperclassmen think of this move.
Do they believe a virtually untested freshman is ready to lead them to victory in a game against a tough opponent
that may determine whether they appear in post-season play? If they have a problem, they better get over it quick.
*Field position is always an important aspect. I suspect that it will take on even more importance that usual in this
particular game. Of course, punting and punt coverage play a huge part in your team's starting field position.
*Could this game be decided by a field goal?

[Mugsy]

I see the IWU/Naperville game coming down to the play of the IWU offensive line vs the Def front of Naperville. Garza and company have a league leading 19 sacks and IWU has given up 10 on the season. IWU won't be able to run the ball much so their ability to give Gallick time (Naperville doesn't blitz much, they count on their guys beating yours) for the big IWU recievers to get open in the zones is key. Also, Naperville doesn't need to be anything other than one dimensional on offense if it works. If they can run the ball for over 225 yds against an IWU team that is giving up 113 yds per game (the biggest run threat they have seen this season is Scottie Williams-28 carr for 127) then IWU is in trouble. The issue with the Naperville running attack is the fact you have to stop the system, not just 1 guy. They have multiple formations to beat you with the run and can pass just enough to keep you honest. With both teams possessing enough skill players to hurt you, the best line play will rule the day in this one.

Ok, this isn't Wheatie week, it's Weenie week, why are we "Naperville"? 

For me it is only a couple of weeks away.  I need to get my animosity geared up early.  Last year my mindset wasn't right in time.